Welcomes

The market is approaching pivotal levels that should become a foundation for a longer-term reversal. For Ethereum, it will be the last chance for a recovery of the $5,000 price market, while XRP has welcomed the new low for itself.

Ethereum’s last opportunity

After falling below $4,000 and currently testing the $3,800 mark — which is precisely in line with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average — Ethereum has entered a critical phase. Before a more significant retracement occurs, this area is beginning to take shape as ETH’s final significant line of defense. After ETH failed to hold above the $4,600-$4,800 resistance zone, where a symmetrical triangle breakdown validated bearish momentum, it has been under constant sell pressure for the last two weeks.

ETH/USDT Chart by TradingView

• Ethereum has dropped nearly 20% since its rejection at these highs, wiping out gains from early September and making buyers cautious. The $3,800 support — which is in line with the 100 EMA — is very important.
• This moving average has historically served as ETH’s mid-trend support, frequently causing it to rise following early tests. Nevertheless, more significant corrections have also been brought on by recurrent breakdowns below this indicator.
• Ethereum may continue to lose if bulls are unable to hold this level, possibly reaching the 200 EMA at $3,400 or even the $3,200 area, which is home to the next strong support cluster. Indicators of momentum validate the pressure.
• The fact that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to about 32, just above oversold conditions, indicates that sellers are still in control and that buyers are reluctant to make a strong comeback.

The strength of the bearish move has also been reinforced by the elevated trading volume on the decline. In order to signal stabilization and a possible recovery toward $4,300+, ETH must first regain $3,950-$4,000. Failure to do so might indicate that the market has entered a corrective phase and that there is an increasing risk of downside. In short, Ethereum’s last opportunity to preserve a bullish structure is at $3,800. Before making an effort to recover, losing it would probably allow for a more severe pullback. 

XRP’s boiling point

The market structure of XRP has reached a critical point as the asset has dropped to the $2 price zone and lost one of its main support levels. Following the breakdown, the 200-day EMA at $2.60 serves as the final important safety net, essentially securing that price target as the market’s next stop. With lower highs pushing the price lower, XRP has been trading in a descending pattern for weeks.

The pivotal moment was reached when the 100-day EMA near $2.88 was not maintained, confirming the bearish momentum and giving bulls little opportunity to defend. The price quickly dropped as sellers took complete control after this support gave way. In a technical sense, $2.60 is very significant. 

As a long-term stabilizer, the 200 EMA has historically protected XRP from significant drops and laid the groundwork for recoveries. The asset might consolidate and possibly retest the $2.90-$3.00 resistance zone if there is a clean bounce here. But XRP cannot stay above $2.60; it could retrace further, perhaps, to $2.30 or lower, where the next historical demand clusters are located. The increasing pressure is reflected by momentum indicators. 

A brief rebound may occur even though sellers are in control, according to the RSI, which is circling 36 and verging on oversold territory. The move was supported by conviction rather than a shallow dip, as further evidenced by volume spikes during the breakdown. All things considered, XRP’s future is uncertain.

The asset runs the risk of continuing its downward trend unless buyers make a strong move at $2.60. The final significant buffer between the current consolidation phase and a possible transition into a more general bearish cycle, this level is more than just another line on the chart. In summary, $2.60 is now the only factor determining XRP’s future. 

Bitcoin’s direction

With the price testing around $108,000, Bitcoin is at a critical level that could determine the direction of the next trend. Bitcoin has experienced a significant retracement following weeks of volatile trading and unsuccessful breakouts above $118,000, returning the market to its most important support in months.

According to the daily chart, there is strong bearish momentum as Bitcoin breaks below short-term moving averages such as the 50-day EMA at $114,000 and the 100-day EMA at $111,800. But the $108,000 area — which is just above the 200 EMA support at $106,200 — is notable as a level with historical significance. This area is crucial for bulls to hold since it has served as a base for several reversals in previous cycles. There is immediate resistance at $111,800 (100 EMA) and $114,000-$115,000, which could be the first upside targets in a reversal rally if Bitcoin is able to defend $108,000. 

If this zone is broken, the bullish structure as a whole would remain intact and the path to $120,000 and possibly beyond would be reopened. The 200 EMA currently sits in the $102,000-$106,000 range, which would be the target of a deeper correction if Bitcoin were unable to hold above $108,000. A collapse of this kind might lead to wider market deterioration, and altcoins would probably follow suit.

Despite the emergence of cracks, momentum indicators indicate that sellers are still in control. There is a greater chance of a technical bounce because the RSI is close to oversold territory at about 35. Simultaneously, trading volumes have increased, suggesting that both bulls and bears are confident in this support test. 

To put it briefly, the $108,000 mark for Bitcoin is crucial. While a breakdown would indicate that the market is moving into a more profound correction phase a bounce here might lead to a pivotal reversal. Everyone’s attention is still focused on this crucial line in the sand for the time being.

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