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Ethereum is showing resilience in the current market, holding above the $4,500 level after weeks of steady momentum. The second-largest cryptocurrency has maintained a bullish structure, but buyers are now struggling to break past the $4,750 resistance zone, a level that has become a critical short-term test. While fundamentals remain solid, the hesitation at this threshold has prompted some analysts to warn of growing risks as Ethereum approaches historically significant levels.
Data from CryptoQuant adds weight to this cautious outlook. The firm reports that the unrealized profit of Ethereum wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH has surged to levels not seen since November 2021, when ETH reached its all-time high. This means mid-sized whales are now sitting on significant paper gains, similar to conditions observed at the last cycle’s peak.
With bullish enthusiasm still strong but profit-taking risks rising, Ethereum’s next moves could prove decisive. A breakout above $4,750 may open the door to new highs, while rejection could trigger a sharp correction.
Ethereum Whales Signal Critical Stage
Ethereum has entered a pivotal phase as mid-sized whales are now sitting on significant unrealized profits. These paper gains have reached levels comparable to those seen at the November 2021 peak, when Ethereum touched its all-time high. The similarity in profit conditions has raised concerns among analysts, as such moments in previous cycles often preceded periods of profit-taking or heightened selling pressure.
Ethereum Unrealized Profit by Balance | Source: CryptoQuant
Historically, when unrealized profits for mid-sized whales reached such elevated levels, markets tended to experience increased volatility. Some holders opted to lock in their gains, triggering a cascade of selling that weighed on prices. This behavior doesn’t guarantee an immediate correction, but it underscores the psychological pressure investors face when sitting on substantial profits. Market participants, especially larger holders, often influence broader sentiment and liquidity, creating ripple effects across exchanges and trading desks.
At the same time, Ethereum remains fundamentally strong. Institutional inflows, network activity, and the broader optimism in crypto markets could temper aggressive selling and extend the rally. Still, analysts caution that the balance between bullish momentum and profit-taking behavior will determine Ethereum’s trajectory.
The coming weeks are decisive. A successful push above resistance could reignite momentum and test new highs, while increased selling pressure may trigger a consolidation phase or sharper correction. Ethereum’s fate now hinges on whether whales choose to hold for higher valuations or realize gains at current levels.
Technical Insights: Key Levels To Watch
Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $4,599, showing resilience above the $4,500 support level. The chart highlights a period of consolidation after ETH failed to sustain momentum above the $4,750 resistance zone, where selling pressure has repeatedly capped rallies. Despite this, the overall trend remains constructive, with ETH maintaining higher lows since early September.
ETH consolidates around $4,600 | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView
The 50-day SMA (blue) is trending upward and sits close to $4,307, providing dynamic support that has cushioned recent pullbacks. Meanwhile, the 100-day SMA (green) at $3,614 and the 200-day SMA (red) at $2,846 reflect the broader bullish structure, suggesting that the market remains in a long-term uptrend. The moving averages are aligned in bullish order, further reinforcing positive momentum.
However, ETH is encountering strong resistance near $4,750, which remains the key barrier before a potential retest of all-time highs. A decisive breakout above this level, accompanied by rising volumes, could open the path toward $5,000 and beyond. On the downside, a failure to hold $4,500 may trigger a correction toward $4,300 or even the $4,000 psychological support.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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