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Bitcoin Options Signal Bearish Trend Ahead of $4.5B Expiry

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The Bitcoin options market is preparing for a high-stakes moment as over $4.5 billion in crypto options will expire on Friday. This includes $3.28 billion in Bitcoin contracts. The expiry coincides with the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, raising the potential for sudden market swings. 

A huge $4.5 billion worth of crypto options is set to expire this Friday, marking a crucial moment for the market. Most of this, about $3.28 billion, comes from Bitcoin options, making it one of the most closely watched expiries of the year.

According to Deribit, a large number of put options are clustered between the $105,000 and $110,000 strike prices. It looks like a lot of traders do not want to take the risk by hedging their positions, just in case Bitcoin’s price takes a dip. 

🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨

At 08:00 UTC on Friday, over $4.5B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $3.28B notional | Put/Call: 1.38 | Max Pain: $112K
OI tilted toward puts, with notable clustering around $105K–110K strikes.$ETH: $1.27B notional | Put/Call:… pic.twitter.com/MUYoXboFfn

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) September 4, 2025

On the other hand, Ethereum options sit at $1.27 billion, an even trading activity. There’s an increase in call options above $4,500, which suggests more hope among traders about Ethereum’s price compared to Bitcoin. Right now, the max pain level for ETH is at $4,400, so that’s definitely a key level to keep an eye on.

Volatility Remains Subdued Despite Market Rebound

September started with a quiet tone that was at the end of August. Volatility is moderate and volumes are modest.. Bitcoin perpetual funding rates, which help align futures with spot prices, have cooled to 6% after hitting double digits. Open interest has also fallen, with just over 720,000 contracts denominated in BTC still active.

Greeks.live reported that near-term implied volatility for Bitcoin sits near 35% or lower. Ethereum’s volatility is higher, hovering around 65%, though its recovery has been weaker. 

“Despite Bitcoin’s solid rebound over the past two days, the options market has shown muted reactions,” Greeks.live stated on X. This shows that traders expect limited volatility in September, even with major economic data releases ahead.

Institutions Expand Activity as Outlook Shifts

CME Group highlighted record growth in crypto derivatives, with open interest hitting $36 billion in August. Large open interest holders reached 1,006, showing a broader range of institutional participation beyond Bitcoin.

According to the chart shared by Greeks.live, outlining Bitcoin’s expected price volatility, there are expected fluctuations in the coming months. On September 5, both short-term and forward volatility were at 29.49%. 

Bitcoin ATM Volatility Term Structure, Source: Greek.live

Thereafter, forward volatility is likely to drop on September 7 as per the chart and then start rebounding gradually as prices move into late 2025 and early 2026. 

The massive expiry of Friday’s Bitcoin options may decide the direction of the market. Although volatility at present is low, traders will remain on the lookout for bigger swings in the coming months.

Also Read: Outflows from Galaxy Digital Sparks Fear of Bitcoin Selling Pressure





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16:9 Market growth, surge, rally(Mediamodifier/Pixabay)
GameFi Guides

Pump.fun Bucks Bearish Market Trend Amid Wave of Buybacks

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Pump.fun’s native token, PUMP, has bucked the market-wide downturn this week, rising by 17% as the protocol leverages platform fees to repurchase tokens.

The buybacks are designed to support holders by reducing circulating supply and absorbing sell pressure, a model increasingly common across crypto projects.

At the time of publishing, PUMP is trading at $0.0035, about 40% higher than a month ago but still down 50% from its July debut, when it quickly fell from $0.007 to $0.0024 in just 10 days.

The sharp post-launch decline reflected the fading of initial hype, but recent momentum suggests buybacks are helping stabilize the token’s market.

The driver is Pump.fun’s revenue engine. The platform earns fees on every token created through its service, a model that has generated $734 million over the past year, with volumes peaking in January during the boom in celebrity-driven meme coins like TRUMP and MELANIA, along with thousands of copycat tokens that followed.

Since inception, more than 12.5 million tokens have been launched and 23 million wallets have interacted with the site, establishing a strong user base.

Those flows have translated into meaningful token support: Pump.fun has directed $59 million toward buybacks, according to Dune dashboards, helping to underpin PUMP’s rebound.

The timing could be fortuitous. Autumn has historically been a stronger season for digital assets after the summer lull, suggesting conditions could align for further upside.

Still, PUMP remains far from its launch highs, and its trajectory will depend on whether fee revenue can remain consistent in a slowing market.

Meanwhile, the majors remain under pressure: bitcoin is trading at $108,500 and ether at $4,337, both down between 6% and 7% this week.



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Bitcoin trading data. Image: TradingView
Crypto Trends

Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Over? Why BTC May Finally Break the Trend

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In brief

  • Bitcoin historically follows four-year cycles where it soars one year after its halving and then crashes in price.
  • Some experts say this cycle could be different, though.
  • This is because a new type of investor is now involved in buying the cryptocurrency via ETFs.

If history is anything to go by, then Bitcoin should plunge next year—and crypto markets will be in the red. But just because it’s happened before doesn’t mean it will happen again. 

One of the hottest debates raging right now across the crypto industry is whether or not Bitcoin will stick to its usual four-year cycle. Experts have been chiming in from both sides of the spectrum, and Crypto X is rife with hot takes (as ever).

Last year, Bitcoin did something it hadn’t done before when it hit a new high ahead of the halving, following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. This has led some analysts and observers to believe that Bitcoin’s typical cycle—when the coin hits a high the year after its halving, only to plunge by 70-80% the following year—is finished.

This guy gets it. We’ve been saying same thing. Since BlackRock filing Bitcoin is up like 250% with much less volatility and no vomit-inducing drawdowns. This has helped it attract even bigger fish and gives it fighting chance to be adopted as currency. Downside is prob no more… https://t.co/0ECd5XevcO

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 26, 2025

“It’s just common sense,” Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas told Decrypt. “More stable owners, more stable price,” he added, referring to the ETF investors. 

The approval of ETFs in January 2024 allowed millions of dollars in capital previously locked out of the markets to flood into the space. Months after they started trading, the leading cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high. The coin has since broken new highs off the back of crypto-friendly President Donald Trump’s victory, rising yet again to a fresh peak last week.

Investors in the space are now more sophisticated, too: Institutions from Harvard University and Goldman Sachs have bought Bitcoin—and via the ETFs, no less. Such investors are less likely to panic-sell, and are buying to hold for the long term, Balchunas said. 



“I think the ETF kicked off this new phase, and I don’t know if the four year cycle would apply. I don’t want to say never, but again, you have to use common sense,” he said. “Volatility is based on the people who hold it.”

Bitcoin was recently trading for $115,492 per coin, up more than 2% over the past day and by 22% year-to-date, according to CoinGecko. It broke a new record of $124,128 on August 14.

In the previous bull run, Bitcoin peaked at a high of $69,044 in November 2021. But the hype didn’t last and a brutal correction occurred, leading Bitcoin to crash below $16,000 in November 2022 after a long list of crypto companies went bankrupt following the collapse of Terra—most notably the prominent digital asset exchange, FTX. 

Bitcoin is now much more mature, however, and further integrated into traditional markets, noted André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Europe head of research.

“Our thesis is that macro- and demand-related factors are definitely becoming increasingly more important due to Bitcoin’s increasing integration into the global financial system,” he said.

Dragosch added that the performance effect from the halving—which occurs approximately every four years and slashes the BTC rewards earned by network-supporting miners—has been declining, while demand-related factors are becoming increasingly important. 

But not all experts agree. A report by CoinGlass this week used data to point out that this year is looking increasingly like previous cycles—especially in terms of price action. 

The report said that the flagship coin’s price movements are echoing what was seen in the cycles of 2015-2018 and 2018–2022, and that capital inflows into the asset are “showing signs of fatigue.”

“Alongside this, long-term holders have realized profit levels comparable to past euphoric phases, reinforcing the impression of a market late in its cycle,” the report read. 

But it’s worth noting that every cycle, there are quirks—and HODLers will ultimately have to wait to see how things play out. 

“Every time that we think, ‘This time it’s different,’ it seems that the market corrects us and shows us: ‘Nope, this time it’s exactly the same,'” Nick Hansen, CEO of Bitcoin mining firm Luxor, told Decrypt.

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Kanye West Launches Yzy Token, Sparks Trend Across Crypto Industry
GameFi Guides

Kanye West Launches YZY Token, Sparks Trend Across Crypto Industry

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Popular rapper Kanye West has launched a new memecoin called YZY earlier today and it has taken over the crypto industry by a storm. Deployed on Solana, YZY token is currently talk of the town with the rapper describing project as the start of a “new economy, built on chain.”

The launch drew swift attention from investors with YZY’s valuation climbing as high as $3.2 billion at its peak before cooling to around $1.3 billion. These sharp moves showed how quickly celebrity-backed tokens can rise and fall.

Source: X

Building a New Economy with YZY Money

YZY token is positioned as the base of YZY Money project. Its ecosystem includes Ye Pay, a crypto payment service, and YZY Card, a global spending tool that works with both YZY and USD Coin. The project calls itself the start of “a new economy” built on-chain. It focuses on payments, commerce, and wider use of digital assets.

The token will be shared through public allocations and liquidity reserves. A portion is locked in long-term vesting under Yeezy Investments LLC to show commitment and transparency. Its vesting is carried out on-chain through Jupiter Lock, an audited protocol on Solana.

The launch also introduced an anti-sniping method, with the team deployed 25 contract addresses and picked one at random as the official YZY token. It was meant to block bots and give retail buyers a fair chance. 

Suspicious Trading Movements on YZY Meme Coin

Analysts at Lookonchain highlighted wallets that seemed to know the real contract in advance. One wallet bought YZY before launch and later sold most of its holdings for a profit of more than $1.5 million, raising doubts about equal access.

YZY can be traded on Meteora on Solana. Early trading showed sharp price swings, underlining both excitement and risk. YZY shows how a celebrity launch can draw instant market attention. Its lasting value, however, will depend on Ye’s ability to deliver real payment and commerce tools beyond the early hype.

Also Read: Sonic Labs Proposes Token Issuance to Enter U.S. TradFi Markets



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GameFi Guides

Morning Minute: Ghost Month Returns – Will Bitcoin Buck the Trend?

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Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

  • Crypto majors are red again, down another 2%; BTC at $113,200
  • Wyoming introduces its stablecoin FRNT, first-ever from a public entity
  • Goldman Sachs says stablecoin market will hit trillions
  • Bullish holds $1B+ in stables after receiving them via IPO
  • Robinhood partners with Kalshi for NFL prediction markets

👻 Ghost Month Returns: Will Bitcoin Buck the Trend?

Ghost Month begins in 3 days.

And historically, that’s been bad news for Bitcoin.

📌 What Happened

The 7th lunar month, known as Ghost Month, kicks off this weekend (Aug 23 – Sep 20).

In many Asian cultures, it’s a time when spirits are believed to roam the earth – and when investors traditionally avoid making big financial moves.

This superstition has bled into markets, and the data backs it up:

  • Since 2015, Bitcoin has averaged a -12% return during Ghost Month.
  • Some of the worst selloffs came in 2017 (-39.8%) during China’s ICO ban, and in 2021 (-23%) following the mining crackdown.
  • Even in bull years, like 2019 and 2024, the pattern held: mid-month drawdowns of 12-19% before late recoveries.
  • On average, trading volumes dip in Asia, liquidity thins, and volatility spikes.

So far in 2025, Bitcoin has already slid about 10% from its $124K peak, with open interest dropping sharply. And notably, it’s sold off during the Korean open (~7 pm ET) every day this week.

📝 By The Numbers

Here’s a year-by-year breakdown of Bitcoin’s performance during Ghost Month since 2015.

Bitcoin has averaged -12% during Ghost Month over the past 10 years

Yeah – it’s not great.

🧠 Why It Matters

Of course, past performance is not representative of the future.

But… a 10-year sample size with similar outcomes seems telling.

The wildcard this year – Powell speaks at Jackson Hole just a day before Ghost Month kicks off.

If he signals rate cuts are coming in September, then this might be the best Ghost Month in Bitcoin’s history.

If he’s overly hawkish – there’s a good chance Ghost Month plays out.

That means choppy price action and more dips.

But there’s also a silver lining.

History suggests that while Ghost Month often delivers pain in the short term, it can also set the stage for powerful rebounds once sentiment clears (i.e. 2017 and 2021).

So these Ghost Month dips are for buying.

Now let’s just hope things don’t get too spooky…



🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

  • Crypto majors were red again on the day; BTC -2% at $113,200, ETH -3% at $4,175, XRP -5% at $2.87, SOL -2% at $179.
  • OKB (+2%) and PUMP (+2%) led top movers.
  • The State of Wyoming launched its Frontier Stable Token (FRNT), the first stablecoin ever issued by a U.S. public entity.
  • Anthony Scarmucci announced that SkyBridge Capital will tokenize two of its funds on AVAX.
  • Goldman Sachs stated that the market for stablecoins is in the trillions.
  • Air Canada’s Pension Fund disclosed a $161M BTC position.
  • Trump Jr.-backed crypto treasury firm Thumzup is acquiring Dogehash Technologies, aiming to merge into a large-scale Dogecoin‑Litecoin mining operation.
  • Bullish holds $1.15 B in stablecoins after receiving IPO funds via stables (instead of fiat) primarily in USDC on Solana and RLUSD on the XRP Ledger.
  • Robinhood listed SUI for trading.

In Corporate Treasuries

  • Sharplink acquired 143,593 ETH in the past week at an average of $4,648, now holding 741k in total.
  • David Bailey’s Nakamoto announced 5,744 BTC ($679M) purchased at an average price of $118,204.

In Memes

  • Memecoin leaders are red on the day; DOGE -3%, Shiba -3%, PEPE -4%, PENGU -8%, BONK -4%, TRUMP -3%, SPX -3%, and FARTCOIN -4%.
  • LIGHT dropped 12% to $100M market cap as revenue came in at just $200k on the day (2nd behind PUMP’s $1.2M).

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🤖 AI x Crypto

Section dedicated to headlines in the AI sector of crypto:

  • Overall market cap down 1% to $12.5B, leaders were red.
  • FARTCOIN (-4%), VIRTUAL (-3%), TIBBIR (-3%), ai16z (-3%) & VVV (+1%).
  • MIRAI (+14%), Project89 (+13%) and Nuit (+10%) led top movers.

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

  • ETH NFT leaders were mostly green; Punks -3% at 47.4 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 12.44, BAYC +1% at 11.4 ETH.
  • Meebits (+10%) and Yumemono (+18%) were notable top movers.
  • Bitcoin NFTs were mostly red or even; OMB +5%.
  • Abstract NFTs were mostly red, led by BUUMEE (+56%).

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