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Crypto Traders Profit From Charlie Kirk Murder as Debate Swirls Over Ethical Lines

by admin September 11, 2025



In brief

  • Crypto traders bought and sold a handful of Charlie Kirk meme coins after the conservative influencer was assassinated on Wednesday, generating millions.
  • The token creators and top five traders collectively profited more than $2 million, prompting meme coin traders to question whether an ethical line had been crossed.
  • Some believe profiting off death is too far, while others argue it’s unavoidable in crypto-based free markets.

Meme coin creators and traders profited more than $2 million following the assassination of right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk on Wednesday. It has split the meme coin-frenzied segment of the crypto community, with one side calling those gaining from his death “sickening” while others shrug at the long line of morally questionable tokens traders have capitalized on.

In the wake of the fatal shooting of prominent conservative activist Kirk, four meme coins were created and soared to multi-millions, with the largest peaking at a $36 million market cap. The deployers of these tokens netted more than $563,000 in rewards—royalties paid to the creators of the tokens—in less than 24 hours, according to data from Solana meme coin launchpad Pump.fun. The top five traders of each token have realized profits over $1.6 million, according to DEX Screener.

As trading for the tokens accelerated on Wednesday night, social media was set ablaze with people searching for and identifying those profiting from the death of the President Trump ally. 

Some even suggested that the token launchpad Pump.fun should add filters that prevent the creation of coins that profit from shootings and violence. Pump.fun does have terms of use, a prohibited use policy, and an active moderation team, but such tokens do not violate any of its guidelines. Pump.fun did not immediately respond to Decrypt’s request for comment.

Pump.fun appears to have benefited from the frenzy too. PumpSwap, the decentralized exchange where its tokens trade, saw a significant spike in daily volume to $533 million—a three-month high. The platform, though, did not experience a notable increase in the number of tokens launched or revenue generated, according to data available on Dune.

“I think profiting off someone’s death, especially the magnitude of an event like this, is sickening,” Pump.fun livestreamer Jytol told Decrypt. “Personally, I don’t trade memes which involve death, racism, or bullying.”

“Anything is fair game”

A prominent pseudonymous meme coin trader, 0xWinged, called such critiques “virtue signalling,” suggesting the community is now drawing an arbitrary line that hasn’t been well-defined in the past. 0xWinged explained that he is both sad about Kirk’s death and would have traded the tokens—but was “sidelined sadly.”

“If it’s not me, it’s someone else making money. Meme coins are about reach and publicity. Kirk was the most viral event,” 0xWinged told Decrypt. “I think Crypto Twitter, having moderate right political views, saw Charlie not as a random victim but as a martyr for a greater cause. And the tokenizing of this event reduced his real-world achievements to a market cap.”



He added that he doesn’t think those profiting off the tokens have “any ill intent,” explaining that “anything is fair game” when it comes to meme coin trading. He also admitted there’s something “dystopian” about that.

Others think that dystopian feeling crosses a line. Loopify, a pseudonymous game developer and founder of charity CryptoGaza, compared the trend to investing in war stocks, which he believes exists “below the moral line.”

“My opinion: anyone who makes money off coins like that, you’re the problem with crypto,” pseudonymous meme coin trader WombatAF told Decrypt. “Death isn’t funny, memes should be funny, or a joke. Something you can just get over. Not death and crime.”

CT is full of the most hypocritical, racist, scummy people with no morals

But buying a Charlie Kirk coin is where they draw the line🤣🤣

— 🪐 (@bilal_m17) September 10, 2025

Crypto degens and profiteering

This is, of course, not the first time that crypto degens have profited from tragic events or ethically questionable spectacles—though the Charlie Kirk coins have sparked notably more outrage among meme coin traders.

Last year, meme coin traders pumped tokens based on unfounded rumors that Joe Biden had died… he hadn’t. This year, degens pumped a token called Swasticoin as they parroted antisemitic and Nazi ideologies. And, over the past seven days, traders profited from meme coins referencing the murder of Iryna Zarutska in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Solana token Justice for Iryna hit a $33.8 million market cap with the top five traders profiting $661,700 on the token. The deployer has earned $190,920 in creator fees, but appears to have donated part of this to a GoFundMe for Zarutska’s family. Equally, a token calling for the death penalty for the alleged killer pumped to $40 million, with the top five traders profiting $506,000 from it.

“There is a 9/11 token out right now [and] no one is mentioning it,” Pump.fun livestream clipper Barton Baste told Decrypt, adding that other meme coins are available that reference the deadly protests in Nepal. “What has happened there recently is extremely tragic,” they pointed out.

0xWinged said crypto’s right-wing base meant the death of Kirk felt more impactful than any previous tragic event that degens profited from—not that meme coin traders are against profiting from death.

The fact all yall were foaming at the mouth for the little Ukranian girl stabbed in the neck coin 24 hours ago, sent that shit to 30 mil, but a few shitposts today is where you draw the line is the most absurd thing I’ve ever witnessed. Disgusting lmao

— Lexapro (@LexaproTrader) September 11, 2025

An “oscillating barrier of tolerance”

The pseudonymous Scorched Earth Policy, who holds the title of chief of staff at the Milady-run Remilia Corporation, told Decrypt the situation is reflective of the “hive mind” of the crypto market. He doesn’t believe market participants draw static ethical lines but are instead moved by a “constantly oscillating barrier of tolerance towards distaste.” The more market participants there are, the closer it will represent the cultural consensus, he said.

“Each of these coins has their own specific context,” Scorched Earth Policy said. “Iryna could have developed just as much backlash as the Charlie coins if her story kept gestating. From what I understand, though, the main coin promised to provide money to her family. [But] that sort of thing is often used as a buffer mechanism to default grift resistance.”

Ultimately, the meme coin trenches are the rawest expression of free markets. With the invention of Pump.fun—and the launchpads that followed—anyone can create a meme coin for free, from their phone, in seconds. Then, anyone with a dollar in their digital wallet can buy that token, and then equally sell it.

“Personally, I feel nothing towards it,” Scorched Earth Policy said. “It’s tasteless to participate in something like that but it’s also naive to treat it like something that can be improved.” 

It appears, for now at least, that meme coins pumping and dumping based on murders, disasters, and other ethically questionable ordeals are an unavoidable feature of permissionless markets, where cultural events are currency and their users are anonymous.

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Futures Traders Flock to Ethereum as ETF Investors Rotate to Bitcoin

by admin September 11, 2025



In brief

  • Aggregate 24-hour Ethereum futures volume climbed to $49.4 billion, topping Bitcoin’s $42.9 billion.
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $1.39 billion in inflows over 10 days, while Ethereum ETFs lost $668 million.
  • Altcoins’ share of total trading volume rose to 50% this week, up from 40%, as Bitcoin’s dominance slipped.

Experts suggest growing anticipation ahead of key macroeconomic events this week has led to a stark divergence between futures traders betting on Ethereum and exchange-traded funds rotating their capital to Bitcoin.

Aggregate 24-hour futures volume for Ethereum reached $49.4 billion, surpassing Bitcoin’s $42.9 billion, data from analytics firm Coinanalyze shows.

The surge in speculative interest for the second-largest crypto contrasts with capital flows in the ETF space.



U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have notched a net inflow of $1.39 billion over the past ten days, according to data from SoSoValue. 

Over the same period, spot Ethereum ETFs have seen outflows of $668 million, highlighting a rotational trade by institutional investors.

Stephen Gregory, founder of crypto trading platform Vtrader, told Decrypt that the divergence between the top two cryptocurrencies is typical, especially with the possibility of a half-point rate cut by the Fed, which is driving the shift in flows to Ethereum and altcoins.

“I think we’ll close Q3 on an uptrend led by altcoins,” he added.

Gregory’s outlook is echoed by Coinanalyze data, which shows altcoins’ share of total trading volume has jumped to 50% this week after consolidating around 40% for weeks. In comparison, Bitcoin’s volume dominance fell to 21% from 31%.

Gregory attributed the strong Bitcoin ETF inflows to “FOMO trading from new wealth managers finally allowed to allocate capital.”

As a result, the rotational trade has fueled a significant performance gap with Ethereum up 31% year-to-date, outpacing Bitcoin’s 19% gain, CoinGecko data shows.

While the futures traders show a growing interest in Ethereum and altcoins, the options market data reveals a more tempered outlook. 

Implied volatility, which tracks the market’s future expectations based on options data, continues to remain low, Adam Chu, Chief researcher at GreeksLive, an options trading platform, told Decypt. 

Despite the rate decision next week, he said, “the options market is pricing in relatively low future volatility, with a consensus that a 25-basis-point rate cut has already been factored in.”

“The overall market sentiment remains more favourable towards the fourth-quarter outlook,” Chu said.

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Stalls Near $111K as Traders Brace for Data Week
Crypto Trends

Stalls Near $111K as Traders Brace for Data Week

by admin September 10, 2025



Bitcoin BTC$112,273.11 hovered around $111,500 on Monday, keeping a tight range as traders weigh macro catalysts for cues on positioning.

Ether (ETH) traded near $4,312, XRP XRP$2.9686 held $2.96, BNB (BNB) at $880, and Solana’s SOL (SOL) climbed to $218. Dogecoin DOGE$0.2399 extended its 11.6% weekly gain to 24 cents, outpacing most major cryptocurrencies as the first-ever memecoin ETF looks set to go live for trading in the U.S. on Thursday.

The market tone stayed tentative. “Crypto prices treaded water much of the past week, but with BTC lagging noticeably both vs its peer group as well as vs equities and spot gold,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, in a note to CoinDesk, pointing to softer buying in digital asset trusts and a pullback in on-ramp activity at centralized exchanges.

“The short-term picture looks a bit more challenging and we would prefer a more defensive stance consistent with the tough seasonal story. Keep an eye on DAT premia compressing and the risk of negative convexity on the downside,” Fan said, referring to the many digital asset treasuries held by U.S.-listed companies that have sprouted in recent months.

Macro could break the stalemate. “Markets are entering a decisive week as US data and central bank decisions converge,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior market analyst at FXTM, in an email.

He added a cooler CPI and any downward revision to payrolls would strengthen the case for Fed cuts, weaken the dollar and could lift alternative assets, while a sticky print would argue for patience and raise volatility across cryptoThat push and pull is mirrored in positioning.

“Investors are caught between turning bearish and risking missed upside, or buying the dip too early,” said Justin d’Anethan, founder of Poly Max Investment. He noted chatter about Strategy’s potential S&P 500 inclusion faded, denting the corporate treasury meme, yet public companies now hold about 1 million BTC.

“In the bigger picture, BTC consolidating around 111K is a fine place for long-term believers. Pullbacks of 10% to 15% inside bull runs have not historically broken the trend,” d’Anethan said.

For traders, the checklist is straightforward. Watch CPI and PPI for the policy path, the dollar for cross-asset risk appetite, and the DAT premium for any renewed knee-jerk selling into redemptions.



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September 10, 2025 0 comments
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XRP and Solana (SOL) Signal Bullish Strength While Traders Hedge For Downside in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH)
Crypto Trends

XRP and Solana (SOL) Signal Bullish Strength While Traders Hedge For Downside in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH)

by admin September 8, 2025



Options data from Deribit reveals a striking divergence in sentiment for major cryptocurrencies, with bullish positioning in XRP XRP$2.8789 and solana (SOL contrasting with lingering downside fears in bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH).

As of the time of writing, XRP call options or bullish bets were pricier than puts across all tenors, according to data source Amberdata.Notably, the December expiry calls traded at a premium of 6 volatility points to puts, indicating a bias for a year-end rally. XRP, the payments-focused cryptocurrency, is the third-largest by market value.

SOL options also exhibited bullishness, with December calls trading at a premium of 10 vol points to puts.

A call option gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified future date. It represents a bullish bet on the market, while a put option insures against price slides.

XRP’s positive tone is likely driven by renewed enthusiasm around potential approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. At least six to seven major issuers, including Bitwise, 21Shares, WisdomTree, CoinShares, Canary Capital and Franklin Templeton, have active applications or amendments pending before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The SEC has delayed decisions on these filings, pushing key approvals, such as WisdomTree’s XRP ETF, into late October 2025. As these filings fall within a similar review period, the market seems to be preparing for a synchronized approval or rejection event that could significantly impact XRP’s price.

The XRP community is highly optimistic, eyeing substantial price gains by year-end if ETFs are approved.

“The first-month flow base case: $5B+. Independent market desks peg first-month spot XRP ETF inflows at $5B+ before the reflexive chase. That’s a serious demand shock to a supply that’s partly escrow-locked and concentrated,” popular pseudonymous XRP holder Pimpius said on X, mentioning $50 as the potential year-end price for XRP. The cryptocurrency currently trades at around $2.88, according to CoinDesk data.

Optimism from SOL likely stems from the rcent approval of its parent blockchain Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade, which is likely to boost the network speed. Bitget’s Chief Analyst Ryan Lee called it “a defining moment for the network’s trajectory.”

“The approval of Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade with more than 98 percent staker support marks a defining moment for the network’s trajectory. Reducing transaction finality from 12.8 seconds to just 100–150 milliseconds transforms Solana into one of the fastest blockchains in operation, unlocking possibilities that extend well beyond marginal efficiency gains,” Lee said in an email.

Lee said that the speed boost will accelerate Solana’s adoption in real-time trading, high-frequency strategies and seamless on-chain arbitrage. He explained that Alpenglow’s design matches blockchain settlement speeds with traditional financial systems, overcoming a major hurdle for institutions hesitant to adopt decentralized infrastructure. This alignment makes Solana an attractive and scalable blockchain option for institutional use.

Bearish sentiment in BTC and ETH

The sentiment regarding bitcoin appears decisively bearish, as puts are priced higher than calls for even the March 2026 expiry trade.

BTC’s rally has stalled above $100,000, with prices struggling to rally after Friday’s disappointing U.S. jobs report, which heightened expectations for Fed rate cuts. Analysts have blamed the slowdown in ETF inflows, profit-taking by long-term holders and whale rotation into ether for BTC’s dour price action.

That said, options tied to ether also showed a bias for puts out to the December expiry. ETH has pulled back sharply to $4,300 from the record high of nearly $5,000 reached last month.



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September 8, 2025 0 comments
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Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Steady as Traders Look to Friday’s Upcoming Jobs Data

by admin September 5, 2025



In brief

  • Bitcoin was flat over 24 hours, clawing back earlier losses to trade at $111,100, CoinGecko data shows.
  • Goldman Sachs expects August payrolls to show 60,000 jobs added versus 75,000 forecast, with unemployment rising to 4.3%.
  • Markets largely expect a 25-basis-point Fed cut on Sept. 17, though wage and unemployment surprises could sway the outlook.

Bitcoin continues to tread water as traders await U.S. labor market figures on Friday, a key data point that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this month.

The crypto remains little changed on a 24-hour basis, having clawed back losses earlier in the day’s trading session. Bitcoin is hovering near $111,100, CoinGecko data shows.

Goldman Sachs anticipates a weaker August Nonfarm Payrolls report, with a projected addition of only 60,000 jobs against an estimated 75,000, and an expectation that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.3%, its highest level since 2021, according to reporting by TheStreet.



Going into tomorrow’s NFP, the market’s position has a “soft but steady” print supporting a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed meets on September 17, Shawn Young, chief analyst of MEXC Research, told Decrypt.

“Unless we see an unexpected strong upside in jobs and wages, the prevailing expectation is that the Fed will keep going toward easing,” he said.

When asked whether markets had already priced in Friday’s labor data, Young agreed that they had “to a large degree.”

“What’s less certain is the trajectory beyond September,” he said. “Traders are cautiously watching for any wage or unemployment hit that might shift expectations on the pace and depth of any upcoming cuts.”

Bitcoin has continuously tracked equities this year, with macroeconomic data influencing future expectations in the asset’s price as participants attempt to get ahead of weaker U.S. economic growth.

The Fed now faces a challenging position in achieving its dual mandate of both price stability and maximum employment, with core inflation still hovering at 3.1%.

According to an August Challenger report on Thursday, U.S. employers reported 85,979 job cuts in August, up 39% from July’s figures of 62,075, marking the month’s highest since 2020.

A “Goldilocks” report on Friday, which would include moderate job gains, steady unemployment, and contained wages, “should fuel risk-on sentiment,” benefiting both equities and crypto, Young said. 

A downside shock, however, might spark “initial risk-off moves on growth fears,” followed by recovery as markets price in faster Fed easing. 

“Conversely, a strong upside surprise would push yields higher, resulting in the strengthening of the dollar, and pressuring risk assets in the near term,” he said.

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XRP Rebound Under Threat as 785,700% Hourly Liquidation Imbalance Stuns Long Traders
GameFi Guides

XRP Rebound Under Threat as 785,700% Hourly Liquidation Imbalance Stuns Long Traders

by admin September 4, 2025


XRP has continued its volatility battle, with the asset again failing to soar in price as anticipated by investors. This has sparked concerns about its rebound move as it registered a 785,700% liquidation imbalance in the last hour.

Bitcoin dominance weakens XRP’s recovery prospects

According to CoinGlass data, long position traders have suffered $202,180 in losses within the last 60 minutes as XRP momentum weakened. The asset climbed to an intraday peak of $2.88 before fizzling out as low trading volume could not support its climb.

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This triggered losses for bullish investors who were anticipating a sustained rally in the market. However, volatility continued as the price declined. As of this writing, XRP is changing hands at $2.82, representing a 1.14% decline in the last 24 hours.

Volume remains deep in the red zone by 25.02% at $4.53 billion. The asset’s technical chart shows XRP has slipped below its seven-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $2.85. This has further increased selling pressure and XRP’s fluctuations.

Additionally, the rise in Bitcoin dominance has worsened the threat to XRP’s rebound move as investor interest shifts from altcoins.

Meanwhile, short position traders also witnessed a mild loss of $25.73 within the same time frame due to the liquidation triggered by the price volatility.

XRP ETF approval, key catalyst for sustained rally?

XRP will likely continue to witness these price fluctuations until it finds a solid bottom. As per the Bollinger Bands indicator, the asset is still flashing warnings, which suggests that a breakout might not happen, particularly with the low volume.

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However, an outside catalyst like news of its exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval could trigger a sustained rebound. Despite the deafening silence from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the approval of pending applications, many continue to believe that an XRP ETF will happen this 2025.

Nate Geraci of the ETF Store maintains that an approval is inevitable even as the SEC decision day inches closer.



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September 4, 2025 0 comments
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BTC Traders Snag Cheap OTM Puts Bracing for NFP Shock
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BTC Traders Snag Cheap OTM Puts Bracing for NFP Shock

by admin September 4, 2025



As the August U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP) nears, bitcoin BTC$109,544.20 traders on the CME are snapping up inexpensive bearish bets by purchasing far out-of-the-money puts, hedging against the possibility of an unexpectedly strong jobs print that could trigger a sell-off in risk assets.

The NFP, due Friday, is expected to show that the economy added 110,000 jobs, up from 73,000 in July, according to consensus estimates from FactSet. The jobless rate is expected to have held steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3%, the same as in July.

The labor market outlook has already darkened, with JOLTS data revealing that job openings declined more than expected to 7.2 million in July, while a low quit rate points to moderating wage pressures. Early Thursday, ADP’s private sector employment report revealed that employers added just 54,000 jobs in August, a steep decline from the 104,000 positions recorded in July.

These figures strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, a bullish development for asset prices. Yet, traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) are considering the possibility of an upbeat NFP report, which could dent Fed rate cut bets and send BTC lower.

“We’ve seen robust appetite for leveraged downside exposure through 5-delta, OTM puts, with consistent demand across the curve. This positioning signals investors are bracing for the possibility of an upside surprise in August’s NFP report that could re-anchor the Fed’s focus on inflation and reduce the odds of rate cuts this year,” Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk.

Put options give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price by a specified future date. Traders buy puts to hedge against or to profit from a drop in the asset’s price.

The 5-delta put options are deep out-of-the-money puts with strike prices well below the current market price, making them relatively inexpensive compared to options closer to the spot price. Traders often buy these cheap “lottery ticket” puts as speculative bets on sharp downward moves or as low-cost hedges against extreme bearish scenarios.

Downside fear

Selby observed that, unlike previous pre-NFP periods when put buying was mainly focused on long-term expiries, this time the activity is spread across both short-term and long-term expiries.

“The breadth of put buying reflects a market recalibrating around asymmetric risks, as much of this activity is centred around far OTM puts, indicating traders still see a materially strong jobs print as an outside chance. That lines up with our view that even an in-line or slightly stronger-than-expected payrolls number would not be sufficient to tilt the Fed’s balance of risks back toward its price stability mandate,” Selby told CoinDesk.

Options listed on Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange by volume and open interest, also exhibit downside fears, with short and near-dated puts trading at a notable premium to calls, according to risk reversals tracked by Amberdata.

BTC’s daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

As of writing, BTC changed hands at $109,950, down 2% on a 24-hour basis, according to CoinDesk data. The recovery from weekend lows ran out of steam above $112,000 on Wednesday, reinforcing the Aug. 3 low as key resistance.



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September 4, 2025 0 comments
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Crypto Trends

BTC Holds Steady as Traders Turn to Ethereum for September Upside

by admin September 4, 2025



Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is stuck in a holding pattern near $112,000, according to CoinDesk market data, but the bigger story onchain might be the divide emerging between how investors treat BTC and ETH heading into September. BTC is acting more like a macro hedge, while ETH is being positioned as the real vehicle for upside.

That split reflects a mix of policy uncertainty and shifting trader flows. In a recent note, QCP Capital wrote that doubts about the Fed’s independence are keeping term premiums elevated, a setup that weakens the dollar and supports hedges like BTC and gold.

But options desks and prediction markets show momentum gathering in ETH instead, where traders see the most potential for a breakout.

Flowdesk reported muted implied volatility in BTC despite pullbacks, suggesting positioning rather than speculative bets. Skew remains negative, meaning puts are expensive, but that creates relative value in call structures. ETH risk reversals, meanwhile, have recovered from their recent selloff, indicating renewed demand for upside exposure.

SOL options also saw increased activity, with flows skewed to the upside on growing sentiment around its ecosystem and corporate Digital Asset Treasury initiatives. Spot activity rotated into ETH beta names like AAVE and AERO, as well as SOL betas like RAY and DRIFT, showing breadth widening beyond majors.

Prediction markets back this rotation theme. Polymarket sentiment reinforces the rotation. Traders expect BTC to stay capped near $120k, while ETH is given a strong chance of breaking $5,000 — a view consistent with its 20% monthly rally and recovering risk reversals.

Traders are increasingly treating BTC as a steady macro hedge, while ETH is emerging as the market’s high-conviction upside play into September.

Europe-based market maker Flowdesk wrote in a recent Telegram update that activity on the desk remains high, with clients broadly positioned for upside even as macro risks linger and seasonal volatility tends to pick up.

The macro backdrop sets the hedge case, trading flows show how positioning is shifting, and prediction markets validate it with real-money bets. Together, they sketch a market where BTC anchors as a governance and inflation hedge, ETH leads on performance, and SOL builds momentum as breadth improves.

Market Movements

BTC: Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase around the $110K–112K range, marked by waning short‑term volatility.

ETH: ETH is trading near $4400. Its rally is being fuelled by surging institutional interest, especially via ETF inflows, and anticipation surrounding the upcoming Fusaka network upgrade. Price action is supported by strong structural demand as ETH continues to solidify its role in DeFi and smart contracts.

Gold: Gold is trading around record highs propelled by expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut (markets now price in about a 92% chance), weakening confidence in Fed independence, and increased demand from ETFs and central banks acting as conviction buyers.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks climbed Thursday, led by a 0.57% gain in Japan’s Nikkei 225, as Wall Street’s tech rally lifted sentiment despite lingering economic worries.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks rose Wednesday as Alphabet gained after avoiding a breakup in an antitrust ruling and investors boosted September Fed rate-cut bets despite fresh labor market concerns.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

  • U.S. CFTC Gives Go-Ahead For Polymarket’s New Exchange, QCX (CoinDesk)
  • Pump.fun’s New Fee Model Hands Out $2M to Creators in First 24 Hours (Decrypt)
  • AI Agents Will Become Biggest Stablecoin User, Says Novogratz (Bloomberg)



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September 4, 2025 0 comments
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Traders Caution of 12% Drop as Lack of Catalysts Marr Sentiment
GameFi Guides

Traders Caution of 12% Drop as Lack of Catalysts Marr Sentiment

by admin September 3, 2025



Bitcoin’s (BTC) slide into September comes with an uncomfortable reminder for traders that history is not on their side.

The largest token by market capitalization has declined in nine of the last 14 September months, with an average monthly loss of around 12%.

This seasonality looms large again in 2025. Bitcoin opened the week near $110,000, its weakest level in nearly two months, and total crypto market capitalization has slipped to $3.74 trillion, reaching a three-week low.

BTC prices have been flat over the past 24 hours, with Solana’s SOL (SOL) leading gains at 4%, XRP XRP$2.8149 posting 1% and Cardano’s ADA (ADA) rising 1.5%.

Traders say the combination of macro uncertainty, fragile sentiment, and thinning volumes leaves little room for error heading into what has historically been the toughest month on the calendar.

The technicals don’t inspire much confidence either. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that the broader capitalization chart “continues to record a series of lower lows, signaling a downward trend.”

He pointed to Bitcoin’s failure to hold $112,000 and warned of “further decline toward the $105,000 area,” a level that has long acted as support before the psychological $100,000 barrier.

The crypto fear index has slipped back toward 40, its lowest since April, suggesting nerves are rising before they’ve fully broken.

In 2017, bitcoin dropped nearly 8% in September despite the euphoric rally that carried it to $20,000 later that year. In 2019, the token lost almost 14% in September, foreshadowing months of sideways action.

Even in the latest cycle, September 2021 and 2022 both saw steep drawdowns, reminding traders that liquidity drains and macro jitters often coincide with the end of summer.

This year, those headwinds are visible in ETF flows. After steady accumulation through much of August, spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded net outflows of $440 million last week.

Ether ETFs, which launched just last year, posted more than $1 billion in inflows, marking a rare bright spot but also a sign that capital may be rotating rather than growing overall.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows spot ETFs have now absorbed more than 1.3 million BTC, nearly 6% of total supply, putting them on par with the largest exchanges for market share.

The risk is that support levels break before macro relief arrives. Non-farm payrolls due Friday are expected to show just 45,000 new jobs, confirming a slowing U.S. labor market.

A soft print would strengthen the case for a September rate cut from the Fed, a catalyst that could flip sentiment back to risk-on. Until then, traders are paying up for downside hedges.

Options data shows the strongest demand for puts in weeks, with skew leaning firmly bearish, FxPro’s Kuptsikevich noted, calling for caution among intra-day traders.



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September 3, 2025 0 comments
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Bitcoin Derivatives Traders Are Betting on Further Upside Despite September Risks

by admin September 3, 2025



In brief

  • Bitcoin has gained 3% in two days to about $110,000 as derivatives traders positioned ahead of U.S. jobs data.
  • Options markets show bullish bets for late September, but hedging signals caution on downside risk.
  • Implied volatility remains low, though some traders are preparing for potential declines.

Derivatives traders are expecting a slightly more optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in September despite macroeconomic uncertainty and seasonality odds, with experts indicating muted downside volatility.

In response, Bitcoin has bounced 3% over the last two days, showing a slight bullish skew and currently trades around $110,000, CoinGecko data shows.

The uptick, however, occurs amid flat cumulative volume deltas, with a noticeable increase in passive bids at a 10% order book depth, according to CoinGlass data. 

In other words, the slight price bump is not being driven by aggressive buying. Instead, the move coincides with more passive buying.



It comes as open interest on perpetuals has spiked 2.35% to $30 billion in the last two days, as traders begin to position ahead of this week’s employment figures.

The historical drag of September’s bearish seasonality, meanwhile, is forcing U.S. investors to reassess their positions ahead, as they look toward the end of the financial year on September 30.

The Bitcoin options market, meanwhile, tells a different story.

Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Dervie, told Decrypt that options traders are making bullish bets for the September 26 expiry, evidenced by a build-up of open interest at the $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000 strikes.

“Since market makers are net long gamma,” an increase in Bitcoin’s price will most likely be dampened by hedge selling, Dawson said. Similarly, price drops will also be minimized as dealers would be forced to buy to hedge their positions. 

Bitcoin’s implied volatility over the next 30 days is holding near 30%, underscoring the recent stretch of subdued price moves.

Still, traders aren’t entirely calm. A key options gauge—the one-week 25 delta skew, which reflects demand for downside protection—jumped from 6.75 to 12 overnight.

The shift shows that while investors expect the market to remain contained, they are hedging against the risk of a sudden drop.

The immediate-term direction now hinges on Friday’s upcoming Non-farm Payrolls report. A bullish jobs report would most likely just limit the “red September” damage, according to Dawson, rather than spark a major rally. 

He adds that while a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is priced in as highly likely, “failure to see a cut at the next FOMC will make September a lot more painful.”

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