In brief
- Myriad Markets gives ~32% odds MetaMask launches a token before November; Polymarket traders price higher for a 2025 drop.
- CEO Joe Lubin has confirmed a token is coming and says the timeline may be “sooner than expected,” stoking airdrop speculation.
- Regulatory risk looms: SEC’s lawsuit against ConsenSys could delay or shape the token’s design, distribution, and launch window.
Is MetaMask finally launching a token? Ethereum co-founder and Consensys CEO Joe Lubin said this week that the long-awaited token tied to the popular crypto wallet is “on the way” and “may come sooner than you would expect”—and Myriad traders are betting on just how soon that might mean.
At the time of this writing, a prediction market on Myriad Markets currently put the odds of MetaMask launching an official token before November 1 at about 32% Yes. No timeline has been announced, but traders don’t appear to believe that Consensys is ready to roll out the token in a matter of weeks.
(Disclaimer: Consensys is one of 22 investors in an editorially independent Decrypt, and Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)
Polymarket users, meanwhile, give a 46% chance that the token will launch by the end of the year.
Lubin made the latest comments in an interview with The Block this week, explaining that a native token (nicknamed MASK) would be part of MetaMask’s decentralization roadmap.
MetaMask was created by Consensys in 2016 as part of its “mesh” of Ethereum-focused projects, and it has remained one of its wholly owned products ever since. When Consensys raised its Series D funding round in 2022 at a $7 billion valuation, MetaMask (and Infura) were explicitly cited as core revenue drivers inside the company—not portfolio investments.
Consensys has been dangling the prospect of a token since 2021, when Lubin first confirmed it would be part of a broader plan to decentralize the wallet’s governance. Over the next few years, Lubin repeated that a token was coming but stressed it wouldn’t be a quick cash-grab; the team wanted to avoid a speculative frenzy and focus on “progressive decentralization.”
In the meantime, MetaMask’s official channels even warned users about scam airdrops, confirming no launch date had been set. Over the years, MetaMask rolled out staking and bridging features, while Consensys recently launched the Linea layer-2 Ethereum network and LINEA token—moves widely seen as laying the groundwork for a token economy.
MetaMask also just launched a stablecoin called mUSD, which provides some evidence that infrastructure and regulatory groundwork are being laid. The stablecoin is live on Ethereum and Linea, suggesting they are both preparing user-facing features and on-ramps for the token era.
What we still don’t know
Despite strong hints, several critical details remain unclear:
Timing: Lubin’s statements are vague. “Sooner than expected” is subjective and doesn’t give a firm date. We don’t know if “sooner” means weeks, months, or just “within the same year.”
Tokenomics and utility: What exactly the token will do is only partially described. Governance? Rewards? Access to features? There are suggestions, but no full white paper or specifications have been published.
Distribution/qualification: Who will receive the token? Will it be retroactive, via airdrop, or earned by activity? Those details are not yet public.
Regulatory risk: Any token tied to a major wallet with many U.S. users will draw regulatory scrutiny. MetaMask and Consensys will have to navigate laws around securities, know-your-customer (KYC), token issuance, and what counts as utility vs. financial return.
The takeaway
Putting this together, here’s a smart bet: MetaMask is very likely to launch a token, and apparently sooner rather than later. The existence of Myriad’s prediction market (“No” being more likely before November) shows there’s reasonable skepticism, but executive confirmations from Lubin push the probability significantly upward.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
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