Threats

• Jesse RogersSep 15, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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  Jesse joined ESPN Chicago in September 2009 and covers MLB for ESPN.com.

The MLB playoffs are just around the corner and shaping up to be a wide-open affair. For the second consecutive season, there is not a single team on pace to win 100 or more games. That means there is plenty of parity across the majors, which is bound to carry over to October.

With that in mind, we asked 19 baseball players, executives and scouts: Who is the team to beat in the National League? And who is the team to beat in the American League?

There was little uniformity to their answers, though most agreed on one thing: a sleeper team that people in both leagues agreed could make a run in October. Here’s how those in the game view the upcoming postseason.

The NL’s team to beat is …

(Phillies, 5; Dodgers, 4; Padres, 2; Mets, 1)

Voting was as tight as you might imagine, considering the Brewers are mixed in with the defending champion Dodgers and high-priced Phillies. Those teams dominated our poll, leaving few votes for anyone else.

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All three teams can slug their way to the World Series, but the Dodgers have a distinct advantage in the power game, outhomering both Philadelphia and Milwaukee by a wide margin this regular season. However, Philly employs easily the best closer of the three — a crucial element that could help finish off those tight October games.

Still, it was the Brewers who won our poll because they’ve played at such a high level in all areas while also possessing a deep and healthy starting staff.

Why the Brewers

NL player: “They seem like a team that has a really solid plan and cohesive approach. And they seem like they’re on the same page. I just like how they play. And they’ve done it all year; why can’t they keep it going?”

NL scout: “They still have to figure out the back end of their pen, but in a short series, they have the luxury of sending one of their good starters to the bullpen. And they might just run into enough home runs to keep pace in October.”

NL exec: “Getting the bye will be huge for them. They’ve been knocked out in those short series several times; this will let them breathe a bit. Plus, their starting staff is so good. If I’m Milwaukee, I want the longer series.”

Biggest threats to Brewers

Philadelphia Phillies

NL player: “It’s simple for me. They still have good pitching, and they’ve been there before. Playoffs are about home runs, and they can hit them.”

NL player: “Their lineup is a little top-heavy, but they have enough at the bottom that can do the job. If those guys show up, then that lineup is really good. Their pen is incredible with [Jhoan] Duran.”

NL exec: “It’s their last hurrah, right? They have older players, some of whom will be free agents at the end of the season. I just can’t see [Bryce] Harper going his career without a ring, and this is their best chance, even without [Zack] Wheeler.”

Los Angeles Dodgers

NL player: “When we played them, they didn’t have a good series, but they seem to turn it on when they need to. That’s the sign of a champion. I think their offense will have a big October and lead them like it did last year.”

NL exec: “Talent will win out, and they have the potential for healthiest pitching staff all year in October.”

If not Milwaukee, Philadelphia or Los Angeles, then who?

Truth be told, these insiders responded before the latest Mets free fall became so dramatic — New York was on an eight-game losing streak that ended with an extra-innings win over Texas on Sunday. But, hey, anyone can get hot at the right time, right? The Mets proved that last year. But they have to prove they can even get into the October party before they can think about making a deep run.

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The Padres are hard to figure out, but that doesn’t make them less dangerous than any other contender. Some days, their offense goes into hibernation, but they can shut anyone down in the late innings. Their bullpen is that good and could take them far despite the loss of Jason Adam.

San Diego Padres

NL player: “I like San Diego. They’re hungry. They made all the right deadline moves. And they have the experience of getting close but not going all the way.”

NL exec: “There’s a lot to like about San Diego, but they can still be pitched to even with their deadline additions. It’s like they disappear sometimes. If they survive a wild-card round and get some home games, Petco [Park]’s energy could wake them up. Still a great bullpen.”

New York Mets

NL player: “The Mets are really good. I know they’ve struggled, but I’m banking on them getting hot like they did last postseason. Sometimes you get your worst baseball behind you, then find your groove. I like the Mets to do that.”

NL scout: “Their lineup 1-9 has to carry them. I’m not sure how they’ll piece it together on the mound, but sometimes you find rookie magic in an arm or two. If two of [Nolan] McLean, [Jonah] Tong and [Brandon] Sproat can come through, why not the Mets?

The AL’s team to beat is …

(Tigers, 5; Yankees, 3; Red Sox, 3; Astros, 2)

The voting was even tighter in the AL than in the NL — four teams received three or more votes — but it was the Blue Jays who edged out the competition with just one more vote than Detroit.

Home-field advantage could make the difference for the AL’s top two teams, both of whom dominate at home but hover around .500 on the road. The Tigers play so well at Comerica Park, where they are able to run rampant on the bases and go first to third on teams. And, of course, they feature Tarik Skubal at the top of their rotation. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays can get the newly renovated Rogers Centre rocking as hard as any stadium in the majors. That top seed in the AL is up for grabs down the stretch — and one of these two teams is highly likely to get it.

Why the Blue Jays

AL player: “They’re one of the most rounded teams in the AL. They have some experience, especially in the rotation, and have a little bit of everything in the lineup. That’s tough to contend with in a series. I just think they have the most complete team.”

AL scout: “As good as [Bo] Bichette, Vlad [Guerrero Jr.] and [George] Springer have been, it’s the contributions from guys from the left side of the plate like [Nathan] Lukes and [Addison] Barger which make Toronto really dangerous. They have some balance, which has eluded them.”

AL exec: “I love their team, but I question their bullpen. It hasn’t been very stout in the second half. Tommy Nance might be a guy to lean on.”

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AL player: “Detroit is high up on that list [of teams to beat]. They know how to win. That’s the biggest thing. They proved that last offseason. And they’ve turned that park into a nice home-field advantage. I know they go first to third better than anyone. That’s a key, playing in that ballpark.”

AL scout: “Sometimes seeing a team play a lot you can get a more negative opinion than what their record is, and sometimes it can be a more positive opinion than their record. With the Tigers, it’s the latter. And they already have a pretty good record.”

AL exec: “I’ve tried to fill out playoff rotations without a true ace. It’s really tough. So having Tarik Skubal makes all the difference for me. Unless he runs out of gas, Detroit is my pick.”

If not Toronto or Detroit, then who?

A case can be made for any of the wild-card entrants — depending on where Houston finishes, as it remains in a tight division battle with Seattle — to pull off an October upset with big game experience oozing from the Astros and Yankees lineups. New York can also slug, of course, while the return of Yordan Alvarez makes Houston’s offense ever so dangerous again.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have made the postseason only once (2021) since winning the World Series in 2018. However, they feature a balanced lineup with playoff leadership in the form of Alex Bregman. Plus, Aroldis Chapman is about as good as it gets on the closer front.

New York Yankees

AL exec: “I think their bullpen will get hot, and [they] have enough power bats to get through a weaker field in the AL.”

Boston Red Sox

AL player: “It’s the Red Sox. They are playing good baseball. They have formidable pitching starting with [Garrett] Crochet and their lineup is cohesive and looks like they have a good time together. They know how to win with Bregman there.”

Houston Astros

AL player: “Everyone is forgetting that Yordan Alvarez missed most of the season. He’s a difference-maker. And when we played them, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown were as good as any two pitchers. Houston is my pick.”

Everyone’s October sleeper pick: Seattle Mariners

Until recently, the Mariners hadn’t shown the league their best hand, ending up in the sleeper category because of it. Those we spoke to said Seattle simply has more upside available to it than any other team.

AL player: “A team that can get really hot that isn’t playing its best baseball is Seattle. That pitching staff is legit. [Cal] Raleigh hit 50 [home runs] but they have other guys that are built for that moment — the spotlight moment. Randy Arozarena and [Eugenio] Suarez are two of them. They’re built to win late.”

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NL player: “It’s one of those lineups where everyone is waiting for them to put it all together. Their rotation is very talented, and they have one of the best closers in the league. I think they’re one of those teams that, if they get hot at the right time, no one can beat them.”

AL exec: “Seattle has one of its best teams we’ve seen there in years. If there is a real sleeper in this entire playoff field, it’s the Seattle Mariners.”

AL exec: “Seattle is my ‘surprise’ team. I think a bad year for pitching in Seattle could get flipped on its head in the postseason with their starters picking it up.”

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