tariff

President Donald Trump took aim at Apple recently, threatening it with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outside the US, which just added more fuel to fire over potential price hikes for the rumored iPhone 17.

Speculation about the phone’s new features and upgrades (plus the prospect of an ultra thin iPhone) has added to the anticipation as the expected release date approaches. But there are plenty of factors that can affect the price of an iPhone, including tariffs, production costs and the overall health of the US economy. 

My colleague Patrick Holland has been reviewing phones for CNET since 2016, and tracking prices over the years. He says the new iPhone is due for a price hike regardless of what happens with tariffs.

Trump’s National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett tried to downplay the impact of a potential tariff in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.

“Everybody is trying to make it seem like it’s a catastrophe if there’s a tiny little tariff on them right now, to try to negotiate down the tariffs,” he said.

Apple did not respond to a request for comment for an earlier version of this story. 

We won’t know the exact price for the next iPhone until its release, which is expected to be in September. But we’ve pored over all the leaks, rumors and predictions about prices, and we found ways to help you save if a new iPhone is in your future.

How tariffs could affect the cost of the next iPhone

Amid President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff bender, higher reciprocal tariffs are currently on pause. However, Trump took to social media on May 28, threatening Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outside the US, although the timeline is unclear. There’s currently a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and a 30% tariff on goods from China, where Apple still manufactures most of its products. Those rates may also start to rise in July when the initial tariff pause expires, which could lead to higher prices on everything — including the rumored iPhone 17. 

Apple appears to have dodged a lot of the initial tariff impact. It stockpiled phones before tariffs took effect, and Trump’s exemption list included many phones, laptops and other electronics that Apple produces.

The tech giant has also moved some US iPhone production from China to India, which currently has a lower tariff rate. However, Trump called out Apple CEO Tim Cook to instead move iPhone production to the US. Most experts consider this an unrealistic demand, especially in the short term, because of higher labor and production costs in the US. Estimates have suggested that a US-made iPhone would cost as much as $3,500.

That leaves prices for the next iPhone in limbo. Trump’s administration called the exemption list “temporary” in early April, saying that exemptions would end in “a month or two.” Around the same time, Trump said that semiconductors, which power tech products, will eventually be placed in a different “tariff bucket.” However, no details have been shared about the timeline or expected tariff percentages.

With all the reprieves appearing to be temporary, tariffs could still potentially affect prices by the time the rumored iPhone 17 is expected to be released.

If the original reciprocal tariff pause expires, for instance, taxes on imports from India would rise from 10% to 26% starting in July. If the 90-day pause for China expires, tariffs on that country would jump from 30% to 145% in August. It’s unclear if Apple’s 25% tariff would be in addition to or instead of individual countries’ import duties.

Experts point out that a tariff rate hike doesn’t necessarily mean an iPhone’s price would increase at the same rate, but most expect at least some impact.

And where the phone is assembled is only part of the tariff equation. Apple sources components for the iPhone from dozens of other countries, which could also potentially affect the price.

Based on where tariffs stand now, here’s how much you could potentially pay for the next iPhone based on current iPhone 16 prices. These are our estimates and not official pricing from Apple:

Potential iPhone price with reciprocal tariffs

Current price Current 10% tariff on goods from IndiaPotential 26% tariff for IndiaCurrent 30% tariff on goods from ChinaPotential 145% tariff for China iPhone 16E (128GB) $599$659$755$779$1,468iPhone 16 (128GB) $829$912$1,045$1,078$2,031iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) $929$1,022$1,171$1,208$2,276iPhone 16 Pro (128GB) $999$1,099$1,259$1,299$2,448iPhone 16 Pro Max (256GB) $1,199$1,319$1,511$1,559$2,938iPhone 16 Pro Max (1TB) $1,599$1,759$2,015$2,079$3,918

If the 25% Apple tariff takes effect, here’s the potential price increase for a new iPhone, based on the current iPhone 16 prices. Again, Apple may not raise prices at a 1-to-1 rate with tariff hikes, but this table incorporates both reciprocal and potential Apple specific tariffs to calculate potential prices:

Potential iPhone prices with reciprocal and Apple tariffs combined

Current price Current 10% tariff on goods from IndiaPotential 26% tariff for IndiaCurrent 30% tariff on goods from ChinaPotential 145% tariff for China iPhone 16E (128GB) $599$809$904$928$1,617iPhone 16 (128GB) $829$1,119$1,252$1,285$2,238iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) $929$1,254$1,403$1,440$2,508iPhone 16 Pro (128GB) $999$1,349$1,508$1,548$2,697iPhone 16 Pro Max (256GB) $1,199$1,619$1,810$1,858$3,237iPhone 16 Pro Max (1TB) $1,599$2,159$2,414$2,478$4,317

What else could cause the new iPhone’s price to increase?

Trump immediately criticized retailers like Walmart and Amazon when they suggested that tariffs could result in higher prices, so it stands to reason that Apple won’t directly blame tariffs for potential price hikes to avoid a Trump tirade. 

Rather, Apple could attribute the price increase to improved features and design costs. Regardless of tariffs, Apple has plans to raise iPhone prices this year, The Wall Street Journal reported. 

Experts say Apple may be overdue for a price increase anyways. It’s been five years since the basic iPhone model increased in price, and each iteration of the iPhone generally improves on features from the last version. 

Holland notes that the base iPhone model hasn’t gone up in price since 2020. His research points to the standard iPhone model’s price increasing approximately every five years, between $50 and $130. Based on this evidence and the iPhone 16’s current price of $829, we could expect the new iPhone to cost somewhere between $879 and $959.

What will the iPhone 17 Air cost?

Early rumors had the iPhone 17 Air topping the iPhone Pro in price. However, a March Bloomberg report suggested the phone could cost around $900, similar to the current iPhone 16 Plus’s price tag. Those estimates are based on the current costs and may not include the potential impact tariffs could have on an ultrathin iPhone’s price.

How the economy could affect iPhone prices

Uncertainty in the US economy — in part due to the aforementioned tariff turmoil — has left many wary about what’s to come. While the recent agreement with China to pause tariffs helped the stock market to mostly recover from the dive it took after Trump’s Liberation Day, that reprieve offers only temporary relief. 

Concerns about the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have left the Federal Reserve in wait-and-see mode for lowering interest rates. Higher interest rates can cause companies like Apple to pull back on spending and investment. Combined with higher tariffs, that pullback could potentially lead to global supply chain disruptions. Fewer iPhones available in the market could lead to higher prices.

If inflation resurges, rising costs could force Apple to increase the next iPhone’s price.

One tiny bright side, in theory, is that a weakening economy could force Apple to hold off on raising prices so it can stay competitive. But that may not offer much consolation if you’re worried about spending money because of a potential recession. 

Will older iPhones cost more, too?

One way to save on Apple products is to buy last year’s model instead of the newest release. However, if the new iPhone is dramatically more expensive when it’s released, demand could increase for the older models. That could lead to price hikes on older models, too. 

The flip side of this is that if the new iPhone’s prices rise and you have an older iPhone, your old iPhone would also likely increase in value, Holland said.

Trading or selling a used iPhone can help offset the cost if you do decide to buy the new iPhone.

Other ways Apple could raise prices

Even if Apple decides to hold the next iPhone’s price steady, there are other ways for the tech giant to recoup increased costs.

Apple could potentially offset the impact of tariffs by raising the price on its services — including its music, news and data plans — according to supply chain expert Joe Hudicka.

“We’ll see those markups in the subscription services first because they’ll appear smaller,” he said. “Consumers will still pay, just not all at once.”

Should we believe rumors and speculation about iPhone prices?

So seriously, how much is a new iPhone going to cost? The truth is, we can’t say with any certainty what the final numbers will be. Our assessments are based on ever-changing tariff policies, past pricing trends, rumors and leaks that are sometimes based on insider knowledge. But until Apple releases the rumored iPhone 17, we can only offer our best estimates for how much the final price tag will be.

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