Swing

With just a few hours remaining until October begins, dog-themed coin Dogecoin (DOGE) is seeing a flurry of whale activity. Blockchain data tracker Whale Alert recently reported millions of Doge shifted to major crypto exchange, Coinbase.

A total of 196,799,056 DOGE were shifted in two transactions reported by Whale Alert. This was moved from unknown wallets to major crypto exchange Coinbase.

Whale Alert reported that 94,565,083 DOGE worth $21,714,279 and 102,233,973 DOGE worth $23,475,229 were transferred from unknown wallets to Coinbase.

Deposits to exchanges might indicate intent to sell, but other reasons might be likely. At press time, Dogecoin was trading down 0.55% in the last 24 hours to $0.23 and down 4.73% weekly.

“Uptober” arrives

October is deemed positive for markets, referred to as “Uptober” in crypto parlance. Analysts have shared a bullish outlook for the broader crypto market, despite last week’s sell-off and institutional outflow.

The next few weeks remain significant for spot crypto ETFs, with final SEC deadlines approaching on numerous filings. The SEC is expected to make its decision on Dogecoin ETF filings as well as those of other cryptocurrencies, including Solana, Litecoin, XRP, ADA and HBAR.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed similar expectation, writing in a tweet: “Who’s ready for Cointober? Spot crypto ETF Deadlines start this week! Litecoin and Solana up first. Should be a wild month.”

As reported, the SEC has asked issuers, including those of DOGE ETFs, to withdraw their 19b-4 filings following the approval of the generic listing standard, which according to Balchunas made the 19b-4 review clock irrelevant, shifting the approval process to S-1 registrations.

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Summary

Bitcoin is consolidating near $109k, with volatility compressed, according to Bitcoin price prediction analysts.
Bollinger Bands and ATR are at lows, while the action continues rangebound between $108k and $113k.
Bitcoin price forecast: A breakout above $113k might target $120k-$125k due to ETF inflows and whale demand.
Downside expectation: if the price falls below $108k, liquidations may occur; target $103k-$100k or the mid-$90k.
The neutral yet coiled structure predicts a potential swing of ~$15k once volatility resumes.

Bitcoin is trading near $109k on September 26, 2025, following a brief period of volatile trading that fluctuated between short-lived gains and fast retracements.

The tight price action has resulted in compressed technical readings across intraday charts, and market participants are keeping an eye on both traditional macro triggers (Fed/PCE data and rate discussions) and crypto-specific catalysts, such as ETF flows and a significant options expiry this week.

This makes the current Bitcoin price prediction environment particularly important as traders prepare for the next large move.

Current Bitcoin price prediction scenario

BTC 1d chart, Source: crypto.news

Over the last few days, BTC has oscillated within a relatively narrow band, with intra-day prints and data feeds clustering broadly around the $108k and $113k ranges; exchanges and price aggregators show prices at around $109k at the time of writing.

The compression is seen across various timeframes: intraday Bollinger Bands have contracted, and Average True Range (ATR) readings have fallen from the August volatility highs, indicating decreased realized volatility even as macroeconomic uncertainty lingers. This range-bound market has reduced directional activity, reduced leveraged posture, and concentrated liquidity at a few key levels, which can accentuate moves when support or resistance breaks. Analysts note that the BTC price forecast remains closely tied to how long this compression can sustain before breaking.

Upside outlook for Bitcoin price

If Bitcoin (BTC) can clear and sustain above the mid-$113k level, there is a clear technical path to the $120k-$125k range, fueled by liquidity gaps and prior supply clusters.

Spot ETF inflows and renewed institutional appetite remain the primary bullish arguments: several recent near-term reports and order flow metrics indicate net inflows into ETFs and some renewed accumulation among large holders, which would add a structural bid beneath price and shorten the path to higher targets.

Momentum above broken resistance may increase short covering and stimulate new buying from systematic techniques that use breakouts as entry signals.

However, any positive continuation will have to overcome the strong options positions and profit-taking that preceded the August gain. In this scenario, the Bitcoin outlook tilts constructive, as higher projections toward $125k align with structural inflows and market positioning.

Downside risks to BTC price

A significant breach below the lower edge of the recent range, around $108k, risks cascade liquidations, with technical stops and futures funding pressure pushing prices down $103k-$100k in a quick drop.

On-chain data and derivatives indicators suggest strong open interest and a large options expiry grouped around this window, which can amplify moves while also creating asymmetrical risk: if volatility jumps to the downside, forced deleveraging could drive price through several support layers.

Furthermore, macro headlines (sovereign balance-sheet movements, unexpected economic data, or hawkish central bank comments) have the potential to abruptly shift mood, and September has traditionally been a month of extreme volatility for risk assets – a seasonal feature traders should keep in mind. The expectation among some bearish analysts is for a deeper correction into the $95k area if key supports crack.

Bitcoin price prediction based on current levels

Bitcoin support and resistance levels, Source: Tradingview

With the current band centered between $108k and $113k, the immediate path is clear: a breakout above $113k likely opens the path to $120k-$125k, whereas a breakdown below $108k increases the likelihood of a move toward $100k or slightly lower as liquidity absorbs forced selling.

Given current derivatives positioning and upcoming expiries, a move of approximately $10k-$15k from current levels is possible once volatility returns; the direction will be determined by the flow (ETF and institutional buys vs macro-driven risk-off) and whether the major options expiry resolves in a way that squeezes one side of the market.

In other words, while the market is neutral-to-slightly bullish structurally, short-term risk is elevated due to concentrated derivatives exposure and compressed volatility.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.