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• Seth WalderSep 1, 2025, 06:30 AM ET

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  Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.

If you don’t want spoilers for the 2025 NFL season, look away.

I typically write about the NFL in terms of probabilities — the chance the Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions, the probability the Bengals get back to the playoffs, the odds the Browns are actually the best team in football (OK, maybe not that one).

But every so often, we need to inject certainty into a forecast. After all, the upcoming NFL season will play out only one way. So why not simulate the season one time and see what happens?

That’s what we’re doing here. We’re detailing the story of a single simulation from ESPN’s Football Power Index, which normally uses 10,000 simulations to build its projections. To be clear, this is not my prediction or ESPN Analytics’ prediction of how this season will unfold. (Vikings fans still in my mentions about Minnesota’s 4-13 record in last year’s simulation — please read that sentence.) This is simply simulation No. 4,091 — what definitely, absolutely, certainly could happen in 2025. Let’s play it out.

See FPI’s full projections for the 2025 season

Both Super Bowl LIX teams miss playoffs

Eleven months after the Chiefs and Eagles squared off in Super Bowl LIX, both teams cleaned out their lockers following Week 18. Neither managed to make it back to the playoffs, easily the shocker of the 2025 campaign in this simulation.

The Eagles were actually done before the final week. Thought to be infallible heading into the season, the Eagles were 5-4 after Week 10 — a game behind the Cowboys but still seemingly in control of their postseason destiny. But that turned into a 6-8 record, leaving Philadelphia in pure panic mode. In the end, the Eagles couldn’t make up the gap, falling short in the NFC East and wild-card battle.

Sim playoff race check-in: Records through Week 15

RecordAFCNFC10-4Bills9-5Colts, TitansFalcons8-6Ravens, Broncos,
Dolphins, ChargersCardinals, Bears,
Lions, Packers,
Vikings, 49ers,
Rams7-7Bengals, Chiefs,
RaidersCowboys, Buccaneers,
Commanders6-8Patriots, TexansPanthers, Eagles,
Seahawks5-9Browns, Jaguars,
SteelersGiants4-10Jets3-11Saints

The Chiefs’ collapse was much more startling. Kansas City controlled its destiny in the AFC West after beating the Broncos on Christmas Day to improve to 9-7. It needed to only to beat the Raiders to secure its 11th straight playoff spot. But Patrick Mahomes’ clutch gene was nowhere to be found as the Chiefs fell 28-19, allowing the Broncos — who won their Week 18 game — to win the division on a tiebreaker. No wild-card bid for the Chiefs either.

The two defending conference champions weren’t the only surprising teams to miss the playoffs in 2025. The Commanders, 49ers and Packers all missed the postseason, too.

Aaron Rodgers experiment fails, Mike Tomlin has first losing record

The Steelers’ bid for the aging superstar quarterback was always a long shot upside play. Ultimately, the poor play that started in Green Bay in 2022 and continued in New York in 2024 couldn’t be reversed.

Things started OK. Rodgers got his revenge on the Jets in Week 1, and a 3-2 start prompted optimism. But a five-game losing streak hit, with losses to the Bengals, Packers, Colts, Chargers and Bengals again. At that point, it was clear that the Steelers’ season — and Rodgers’ career — was over.

Broncos steal AFC West crown

The AFC West wasn’t so tough after all. Despite optimism from all four teams entering the season, no one separated from the pack or put up a gaudy record. But someone had to prevail.

Denver became the first team in a decade to dethrone the Chiefs from their AFC West crown. Tied with the Chargers at 8-8 entering Week 18, the Broncos secured the division title with an 18-15 win over Justin Herbert, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers.

The win was indicative of the Broncos’ strengths, as the offense provided just enough help for a smothering defense. Denver finished the season ranked first in defensive EPA per play.

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Cowboys win surprise NFC East title

Like in the AFC West, it wasn’t that another team took the division crown from the Eagles as much as Philadelphia being sucked into the division’s overall mediocrity. And when the Eagles stumbled, Dallas took advantage.

Maybe we shouldn’t be that surprised that the Cowboys made the playoffs (even if winning the division seemed unlikely). Though the preseason chatter was all about Micah Parsons and his eventual trade, the remaining foundation of this team still included Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Considering Prescott finished second in QBR in 2023, Dallas was always capable of having a quality offense, and it was good enough in this case to make up for missing Parsons. Young pass rushers Donovan Ezeiruaku and Sam Williams stepping up helped, too.

In the end, the Cowboys won the division with a 9-8 record, though they fizzled again in the postseason with a wild-card loss.

Colts win AFC South; Titans earn wild card

Even in a season when the Chiefs and Eagles missed the playoffs, what happened in the AFC South turned heads. Somehow, Colts coach Shane Steichen unlocked the 2022 version of Daniel Jones, leaning on the legs of the former Giants quarterback while Lou Anarumo and the new-look secondary turned around the defense. The result was a 10-7 record and playoff berth.

But the real AFC South story was the red-hot start of Cam Ward and the Titans. Tennessee began the season 9-3 as Ward took the league by storm. He was the talk of the NFL through 13 weeks and had a lock on the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. But the Titans proceeded to rattle off a five-game losing streak as the league caught up to the rookie QB, and Tennessee limped into the playoffs with a 9-8 record.

While the Colts stole the division from the Titans, Tennessee was able to turn the tables in the wild-card round. The result? A 34-13 blowout in Tennessee’s favor at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Ravens edge Bengals for AFC North title

With the Browns and Steelers nonfactors, it was clear by midseason that the AFC North would come down to Baltimore and Cincinnati. The race peaked in Week 15, when the two teams — then tied at 7-6 — squared off for their second meeting.

It was a classic in Baltimore. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson traded big throws against seemingly helpless defenses — the quarterbacks combined for an outrageous eight touchdown passes. But the Ravens finally got the stop they needed, and rookie Tyler Loop finished off the Bengals with a 43-yard field goal as time expired to give the Ravens a 41-38 victory. The win put Baltimore up a game in the standings and also gave it a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bengals. It was needed, as the Ravens and Bengals both finished 10-7.

The lack of home-field advantage proved costly for the Bengals, who lost a wild-card heartbreaker in Denver 35-32. The Ravens took advantage of playing at home, dispatching the Dolphins 34-17 in the wild-card round and the Broncos 24-22 in the divisional round to go to the AFC Championship Game.

Cardinals win a playoff game

With all the surprise NFC playoff misses, spots were available. And the Cardinals were one of the upstarts that took advantage. Arizona had a good, but not great, 9-8 season in which quarterback Kyler Murray played quite well, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. took a small step forward and the defense was mediocre. That was enough for a wild-card berth, and the Cardinals made some postseason noise.

Arizona routed the NFC South champion Falcons 35-14. Playoff Josh Sweat sacked Michael Penix Jr. multiple times, while Murray threw two touchdown passes to Zay Jones. But the Cardinals didn’t carry that momentum into their divisional round matchup with the Vikings, losing 28-22 when their attempted game-winning drive stalled out in the final minute.

Saints get first overall pick, prompting Arch watch

Sometimes preseason expectations hold. FPI predicted the Saints to be the worst team in football, and they were just that. The easy schedule worked in their favor, too. New Orleans was tied with the Jets and Browns for the worst record at 5-12, but it earned the No. 1 pick on the schedule-strength tiebreaker.

Before the season, Archie Manning predicted that his grandson Arch Manning would remain with Texas for the 2026 season. But when the Saints — Archie’s former team — earned the first overall pick, speculation about the youngest Manning speeding up his NFL timetable began to grow.

Final simulation regular-season standings

AFCNFCEastWLTEastWLTBills*1340Cowboys*980Dolphins#980Eagles890Patriots7100Commanders7100Jets5120Giants6110NorthWLTNorthWLTRavens*1070Lions*1160Bengals#1070Vikings#1070Steelers7100Bears980Browns5120Packers890SouthWLTSouthWLTColts*1070Falcons*1070Titans#980Buccaneers#980Texans980Panthers6110Jaguars890Saints5120WestWLTWestWLTBroncos*980Rams*1160Chiefs980Cardinals#980Raiders89049ers980Chargers890Seahawks890* – won division# – qualified for playoffs

No. 7 seed Buccaneers go on unlikely Super Bowl run

For much of the season, the Buccaneers looked like a mild disappointment, as quarterback Baker Mayfield couldn’t quite match his 2024 success with new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. Entering Week 18, Tampa Bay sat at 8-8 on the outside looking in at the playoffs — a game out of the NFC South and wild-card berths. The Bucs needed that final week to break their way, and it did.

The division was out of reach once the Falcons beat the Saints, but the Buccaneers kept their playoff hopes alive with a 20-15 victory over the Panthers. They got the help they needed, with the 49ers losing to the Seahawks 24-17 and the Bears falling to the Lions 38-9. That allowed Tampa Bay to grab the last wild-card spot with a 9-8 record.

The Bucs entered the playoffs with low expectations but shocked No. 2-seeded Detroit 27-24 in the wild-card round, keyed by a Yaya Diaby sack and a deflection of a Jared Goff pass that was intercepted. Tampa Bay then surprised the top-seeded Rams 27-22 in the divisional round thanks to a clinical Mayfield performance. Todd Bowles’ defense got the job done in the NFC Championship Game, confusing J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings and winning 28-13. Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving had big days, and the Bucs were Super Bowl bound — where they met the Bills.

In a wild NFC playoffs, five of six road teams won their matchups. Here’s how the overall postseason played out leading into the Super Bowl:

Wild-card round

(AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 7 Dolphins 34-17

(AFC) No. 6 Titans def. No. 3 Colts 34-13

(AFC) No. 4 Broncos def. No. 5 Bengals 35-32

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 2 Lions 27-24

(NFC) No. 6 Cardinals def. No. 3 Falcons 35-14

(NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 4 Cowboys 10-9

Divisional round

(AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 6 Titans 28-14

(AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 4 Broncos 24-22

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 1 Rams 27-22

(NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 6 Cardinals 28-22

Conference championships

(AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 2 Ravens 24-20

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 5 Vikings 28-13

Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton, Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Commanders coach Dan Quinn and Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. ESPN

Bills win Super Bowl LX

Bills Mafia, rejoice. Buffalo really did it. After coming up short four times in a row in the early 1990s and then knocking on the door in recent years with Josh Allen, the Bills finally burst through with a statement win.

Buffalo was the best team in the regular season, winning 13 games to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Allen won his second straight MVP award — no controversy this time — and the Lombardi Trophy was considered Buffalo’s to lose.

The Bills’ No. 1 seed earned them a divisional round matchup against a plucky Titans team that wasn’t ready for the moment. The Bills won 28-14. The real test came in the AFC Championship Game — the last game ever in Highmark Stadium.

With snow flurries falling in true Buffalo fashion, the Bills hosted their fiercest challenger, the Ravens. Allen put on a top-tier performance, recording a 91 QBR and throwing a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown pass to tight end Dalton Kincaid. Allen and the Bills outdueled Jackson and the Ravens 24-20 to advance to Super Bowl LX.

The betting market pegged the Bills as 7.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers, which was more than enough. The Bills opened with a two-score lead in the first eight minutes on a 56-yard touchdown run by James Cook. It didn’t get closer, so Allen hardly needed to make big plays. Cook took home Super Bowl LX MVP with his three touchdowns, and the Bills were finally victorious, trouncing Tampa Bay 55-23.

ESPN senior sports analytics engineer Hank Gargiulo contributed to this article.

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