Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is around the corner. What better way to raise (or temper) expectations than with a complete breakdown of predictions and projections?
Below is a guide of what to expect once the season kicks off Thursday — including power rankings of all 32 teams, a list of teams that will score the most points and defenses that will allow the fewest, and a look at the toughest and easiest schedules. We also make predictions for the playoffs and Super Bowl LX.
If you’re looking for even more in-depth content, check my rankings and assessments of the best and worst positional units across the league, as well as my 80-page projections PDF.
Jump ahead to …
Schedule: Easiest | Toughest
Offense projections: Best | Worst
Defense projections: Best | Worst
Power rankings | Super Bowl pick
Easiest schedule
The 49ers are coming off a last-place finish in the NFC West, but that set them up with the league’s easiest projected 2025 schedule. They do not play any of the league’s eight Super Bowl favorites, per ESPN Bet odds (Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Bengals, Commanders), and have many attractive matchups against underwhelming NFC South and AFC South teams.
San Francisco’s unique games are versus the Bears, Giants and Browns — the latter two are projected to finish in the bottom seven of the league, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Titans, Colts, Jaguars and Cardinals round out the top-five easiest schedules.
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Toughest schedule
No surprise here, as the Lions are the defending champions of the tough NFC North. In addition to the six games against the Vikings, Packers and the improved Bears, the Lions will face NFC East and AFC North teams. Detroit’s trio of unique games is also about as hard as you can get: Buccaneers, Chiefs and Rams.
The good news for Detroit is that the rest of the division (and several No. 1-seed contenders) will also face a tough slate. The Eagles, Vikings, Giants and Browns round out the top-five toughest schedules.
Projected highest-scoring teams
The Bills haven’t led the NFL in scoring since 1990, but they’ve been close during the Josh Allen era, ranking no lower than sixth each of the past five seasons (top-three four times). This season, the reigning NFL MVP is set up with a solid (and perhaps improved) supporting cast, led by RB James Cook, WR Khalil Shakir, second-year WR Keon Coleman, TE Dalton Kincaid and newcomer WR Joshua Palmer.
2. Baltimore Ravens, 473 points
3. Philadelphia Eagles, 452 points
Projected lowest-scoring teams
The Browns were last in scoring in 2024 and haven’t finished better than 10th since 2007. They should be a strong bet to finish at or near the bottom in 2025, especially with so much uncertainty at quarterback (some mix of Joe Flacco, third-round pick Dillon Gabriel and fifth-round pick Shedeur Sanders). Additionally, the once-elite offensive line isn’t as good as years past, and there are no established needle-moving pass catchers behind WR Jerry Jeudy and TE David Njoku.
2. New Orleans Saints, 314 points
3. New York Giants, 332 points
Projected defenses to allow the fewest points
Though the Texans ranked in the middle of the pack in points allowed last season, their defense finished top five in sacks (49) and forced turnovers (29). They were also first in pass rush win rate (48.7%). Thirteen of the unit’s top 14 players who got the most snaps return this season, including standout edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, safety Jalen Pitre and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair.
2. Denver Broncos, 357 points
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 358 points
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Projected defenses to allow the most points
The Cowboys allowed the second-most points last season, and that was with Micah Parsons for 13 games. Parsons was traded to Green Bay on Thursday for defensive tackle Kenny Clark and two first-round picks. Linebacker Eric Kendricks, nickel corner Jourdan Lewis and edge rusher Chauncey Golston are also gone.
Sprinkle in a few lingering injuries (including top linebacker DeMarvion Overshown), and the Cowboys have the shakiest defense in the league. Facing the Eagles and Commanders twice will only boost their points allowed.
2. Las Vegas Raiders, 428 points
3. Carolina Panthers, 427 points
Team-by-team rankings
Asterisks indicate my projected playoff teams.
This team has it all: an elite coach in John Harbaugh, perhaps the league’s best QB in two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, a terrific offensive supporting cast (led by RB Derrick Henry, WR Zay Flowers, TE Mark Andrews, OT Ronnie Stanley and C Tyler Linderbaum) and a terrific defense that returns 10 of its top 11 snap-getters from 2024 (including stars in S Kyle Hamilton, CB Marlon Humphrey, LB Roquan Smith and DT Nnamdi Madubuike). They also strengthened their secondary by signing cornerback Jaire Alexander.
We already discussed Buffalo’s stellar offensive outlook, but Sean McDermott’s defense deserves some love, as well. Led by edge rusher Greg Rousseau, corner Christian Benford, defensive tackle Ed Oliver and new edge rusher Joey Bosa, this should be a solid unit. The Bills are equipped for another run at a title.
Injuries decimated the Lions’ defense in 2024, which led to a quick playoff exit after a dominant 15-2 regular season. The departures of coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, as well as new players on the interior offensive line, create notable uncertainties. But Detroit’s roster is still stacked with talent. I expect the Lions to contend for the top NFC seed again despite projecting them to have the toughest schedule.
The reigning Super Bowl champions took a hit on defense during the offseason, losing edge Brandon Graham, cornerback Darius Slay, edge Josh Sweat, defensive tackle Milton Williams and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. But at its worst, this team is solid on paper because of its elite offense with RB Saquon Barkley, QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown. The Eagles have a legitimate shot to repeat.
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Perhaps the Chiefs are headed for some regression after they had so many close wins last season but suffered a shellacking against the Eagles for the title. But it’s hard to doubt a franchise that has reached five of the past six Super Bowls, including three in a row. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes appears to have more offensive support this season, even with wide receiver Rashee Rice being suspended for the first six games. Their strong defense also returns 13 of its top 15 snap-getters from 2024.
Tampa Bay has found its franchise quarterback in Baker Mayfield and he’ll have one of the league’s top supporting casts, which now includes first-round wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. The defense still has concerns at certain positions, but the unit can be good enough to give the Bucs a shot at their fifth consecutive division title and sixth straight trip to the postseason.
Sean Payton turned Denver into a playoff team last season, and he’ll have an even better squad on paper this season. A defense led by cornerback Pat Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and defensive tackle Zach Allen is outstanding, and it added more playmakers in two former 49ers (LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga). Second-year QB Bo Nix will benefit from a terrific offensive line and skill-position upgrades like tight end Evan Engram.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford’s back injury could derail things, but the Rams have constructed one of their best rosters in several years. They struck gold with edge rusher Jared Verse, the 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year, and we know they’re well-coached under Sean McVay. On offense, they replaced wide receiver Cooper Kupp with Davante Adams, who tied for 15th in ESPN’s open receiver score last season.
The Vikings remain elite in a lot of areas, including offensive line, pass catchers (led by WR Justin Jefferson) and defense (a unit that includes defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave). The big question, of course, is how well quarterback J.J. McCarthy plays after the 2024 first-round pick missed his rookie season because of a knee injury.
The Packers are solid on both sides of the ball, and the offense could be even better with improved targets, including first-round receiver Matthew Golden, and a fully healthy QB in Jordan Love. The blockbuster trade for edge rusher Micah Parsons revamps their defensive line and could be enough to cement Green Bay as a playoff contender.
Second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels appears to be the real deal and can carry this team far, especially with more veterans on offense, such as left tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel. The defense remains a major red flag, but defensive mastermind Dan Quinn could again coach it into a competent unit.
The Bengals have missed the playoffs in back-to-back years despite winning nine-plus games in four consecutive seasons. It’s hard to imagine a team that has quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (both in the top 10 of our top 100 players) missing the postseason again, but giant questions loom along the offensive line and defense.
The Bears are one of the league’s most fascinating teams. New coach/offensive mastermind Ben Johnson will look to get the most out of second-year quarterback Caleb Williams, who will have the benefit of a terrific young group of pass catchers and a much-improved offensive line. The defense is, at worst, solid and helps give Chicago a legit shot at the postseason.
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Losing elite left tackle Rashawn Slater for the season is brutal, and the Chargers’ defense certainly has several concerning areas — the unit ranked in the bottom 10 at linebacker and cornerback in my positional group rankings. Still, the Justin Herbert-led offense looks good, and Jim Harbaugh’s record speaks for itself (55-25-1 in five seasons as an NFL head coach).
A T.J. Watt-led defense that added cornerback Jalen Ramsey this offseason is perhaps the league’s best on paper, but the big question is how much the team will get out of 41-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers couldn’t move the needle for a talented Jets roster last season, and this offensive supporting cast is below average. Mike Tomlin’s leadership should keep this team in the wild-card mix, though.
AFC sleeper alert! The Patriots are much better in nearly all areas compared with last season. After finishing with the fewest sacks in the NFL last season (28), the defense improved by signing DT Milton Williams, edge Harold Landry III, LB Robert Spillane and CB Carlton Davis III. Second-year QB Drake Maye will have wide receiver Stefon Diggs and rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson as options. And Mike Vrabel replaced Jerod Mayo as head coach.
Houston remains the favorite in the AFC South, with an aforementioned terrific defense and a solid offense. There are some lingering offensive line concerns, as the unit could have four new starters this season, but third-year QB C.J. Stroud and standout wideout Nico Collins give this team a higher floor.
NFC sleeper alert! Jonathan Gannon’s defense is much improved after investing heavily up front. The Cardinals signed edge Josh Sweat, along with defensive tackles Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell in free agency. And in the draft, they took defensive tackle Walter Nolen III in the first round, though he will start the season on the reserve/PUP list because of a calf issue. The Kyler Murray-led offense could also be better if wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. makes a Year 2 leap.
As usual, Kyle Shanahan’s offense figures to be very good, but injuries at wide receiver are already piling up — the 49ers aren’t sure if Jauan Jennings will be available for Week 1. The big red flag here is a defense that had many notable departures, leaving the 49ers with big concerns at defensive tackle, corner and safety. Edge rusher Nick Bosa and new coordinator Robert Saleh will have their work cut out for them.
Quarterback aside, the Colts arguably have a top-10 roster. The defense looks pretty good (cornerback Charvarius Ward and safety Cam Bynum were much-needed upgrades in the secondary), and the offense includes several difference-makers (RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr., G Quenton Nelson, OT Braden Smith and first-round rookie TE Tyler Warren). If new starting QB Daniel Jones can give the team somewhat competent play, the Colts might surprise the league.
Mike McDonald’s defense looks to have the league’s best interior line, including Leonard Williams, second-year Byron Murphy II and Jarran Reed. The offense is more of a wild card, as new quarterback Sam Darnold will need to sustain his improved play from 2024. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp and running back Kenneth Walker III will need to stay healthy, too.
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With Tua Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins’ offense has a ton of upside, but it also struggled to make the most of receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last season. The offensive line is concerning. The defense is even shakier, especially with all five secondary starters from 2024 gone and little done to replace them. There’s also uncertainty at edge rusher after Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips missed most of the past two seasons. This is a career-defining year for coach Mike McDaniel.
The Falcons’ defense finished with the second-fewest sacks last season (31), but there’s potential for a step forward if first-round edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. are the real deal. The offense has a much brighter outlook, but second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. started only three games last season and threw an interception in each one. He has a good supporting cast, led by WR Drake London, RB Bijan Robinson and a quality line, but Penix will need a Year 2 leap for Atlanta to enter the playoff discussion.
Dallas’ offseason had more headlines than impact additions. A healthy Dak Prescott/CeeDee Lamb duo will be a big boost in the right direction, but an offensive line already battling injuries isn’t what it was a few years ago. The defense also has to figure out its identity without Micah Parsons on the edge.
The Giants have clear weak spots, but there’s potential for them to outperform this ranking. The defense is quietly very good on paper after the additions of cornerback Paulson Adebo, safety Jevon Holland and first-round edge rusher Abdul Carter to a group that already included DT Dexter Lawrence II, edge Brian Burns and LB Bobby Okereke. The offense, led by WR Malik Nabers, has questions along the line, but competent QB play from Russell Wilson or first-round pick Jaxson Dart can get this team into the wild-card discussion.
The Jets fumbled away a stacked roster last season, and the outlook doesn’t appear bright now. A defense that includes DT Quinnen Williams, edge Jermaine Johnson and CB Sauce Gardner should be above average, but an offense led by quarterback Justin Fields and unproven skill players beyond wide receiver Garrett Wilson figures to be very limited.
The Jaguars drafted one of the league’s most interesting players in Travis Hunter, but the rookie will be hard-pressed to make up for this roster’s voids at wide receiver and cornerback. Little (no pun intended, Walker Little) was done to address perhaps the league’s shakiest offensive line, which puts added pressure on quarterback Trevor Lawrence under new coach Liam Coen. The defense should be solid, with edge Josh Hines-Allen, LB Foyesade Oluokun and CB Tyson Campbell among the impact players.
The Titans are entering a new era with No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward at quarterback. Tennessee improved its offensive line, but growing pains are probable and the skill positions are still a work in progress. And besides the great defensive tackle duo of Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat, the defense doesn’t have much for opponents to fear.
Quarterback Bryce Young started to show some life late last season and another step forward will be the key to Carolina outproducing this ranking. He’ll have a better supporting cast after the team selected wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan in the first round. But the league’s worst scoring defense in 2024 could still be shaky — the return to health for star defensive tackle Derrick Brown will be a big help.
Perhaps Pete Carroll can coach this team out of the basement, but even with the additions of QB Geno Smith and RB Ashton Jeanty on offense and the presence of edge Maxx Crosby on an otherwise shaky defense, this roster has too many weak points. I had them ranked last at wide receiver and 30th overall in my positional group rankings.
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The Browns’ defense took a giant step back last season and now looks like a bottom-10 unit on paper (even with edge rusher Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward). The offense is in flux and might not improve until Cleveland takes another flier on a franchise quarterback in the 2026 draft.
Derek Carr’s sudden retirement cemented this one, as Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough will have to step up at quarterback this season. If that’s not enough, the cornerback group might be shakiest in the NFL, and there are age and/or injury concerns with RB Alvin Kamara, LB Demario Davis, edge Cameron Jordan, WR Chris Olave and TE Taysom Hill.
Super Bowl LX prediction: Ravens over Lions
It’s no secret that the Ravens have yet to register a Super Bowl appearance during the Lamar Jackson era (or since 2012), but that could change this season. Baltimore has perhaps its best roster on paper since it defeated the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII, sitting at No. 1 in my overall positional group rankings.
The Lions were the best team in the NFL last season before being derailed by a ridiculous stretch of defensive injuries. Now (mostly) healthy, they have a good shot to fend off the defending champion Eagles in the NFC playoffs, reaching their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
Offensive unit grade rankings
RankTeamQBRBWRTEOL1Ravens1097972Eagles81097103Chiefs1048964Bills1076775Bengals1049626Buccaneers779577Lions7108868Commanders838659Rams6795710Chargers778361149ers71048712Bears5588913Packers6866714Vikings4598915Cowboys6386616Dolphins6784317Falcons51065618Cardinals6748519Broncos5437920Patriots5657521Colts3966722Titans4554723Texans5466324Panthers4564525Seahawks4864426Raiders4839527Steelers4349428Giants4564328Jaguars4574230Jets3743531Saints2863532Browns24485*Units are graded on a 1-10 scale
Defensive unit grade rankings
RankTeamDTEdgeLBCBS1Steelers8106852Lions578793Broncos858784Giants896655Ravens656985Vikings896477Texans495968Seahawks964769Patriots7668510Jets6588511Colts9647512Packers3964913Bears5478714Eagles6398515Cardinals9534916Bills6668317Chiefs6478318Rams7724619Jaguars4784420Buccaneers5457521Chargers2744822Dolphins5772423Saints3772624Titans9335424Browns5754326Bengals5753426Commanders4310622849ers2774329Falcons4464530Cowboys6335531Panthers6426332Raiders38523*Units are graded on a 1-10 scale
