Speculation

There was a lot of speculation about a possible two-year delay in the SEC v. Ripple case, but pro-XRP attorney Bill Morgan has now shut that down. After a post went viral saying the final decision might not be made until late 2026, Morgan said that is not going to happen unless Judge Torres rejects the current joint request. 

Morgan says the better outcome is probably going to be that both sides accept the summary judgment, penalty and permanent injunction. There is still a small chance of the settlement breaking down, and then there could be two appeals, but it is not that likely.

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This comes after Ripple and the SEC recently asked for an indicative ruling again, after Judge Torres’s original refusal of the motion back in May. The court is now waiting for an SEC filing that is due by mid-August.

In the meantime, the XRP community is left wondering whether Judge Torres might change any part of her previous decision. This uncertainty led to predictions of a long legal process, including the “late 2026” timeline that Morgan’s comment effectively dismissed as overblown.

What are odds?

Marc Fagel, who used to be the SEC regional director, also had his say last week, offering a more considered opinion. He said it is hard to say whether the judge will change her decision, and that “it could go either way.” But so far, no legal voice has backed the idea of a delay extending into 2026, so it is more of a fringe prediction than a likely path.

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If the court rules in line with what the parties expect, it will then lift the injunction, releasing $50 million to the SEC and returning $75 million to Ripple. Once that is done, the SEC’s appeal and Ripple’s cross-appeal could be thrown out, putting an end to the case that kicked off in December 2020.

In the meantime, the clock is ticking toward August, but not, it seems, toward 2026.

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