September

In brief

• The crypto market is poised to close in the green for September as Bitcoin rallies above $114k.
• Altcoins like ADA and DOGE, though, aren’t faring nearly as well.
• Technical indicators and prediction market data diverge on the near and long-term market view.

The crypto market is nursing another day of modest losses—but they’re modest enough to escape the seasonal September curse.

Despite the sea of red today, with 82% of the top 100 coins by market cap registering losses, September is poised to end in green, with an average monthly gain of 2.7%. For those curious, if we remove Bitcoin from the equation, the altcoin market is still up roughly 0.7% for the month. Not bad, all things considered.

The global cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $4 trillion, down less than 1% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. Bitcoin has managed a modest rebound, currently trading at just over $114,400. Ethereum, meanwhile, has itself climbed roughly 1% to around $4,200. Other prominent altcoins though, such Cardano and Dogecoin, aren’t faring as well.



As we zoom out, traditional markets are showing mixed signals today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains as investors digest earnings reports from tech giants. But the real action is happening in the commodities market. Gold continues its relentless march higher, trading at $3,822 per ounce after climbing 0.07% on the day—up a staggering (in terms of the gold market) 30% year-over-year. The precious metal’s strength reflects ongoing concerns about inflation, tariff policies, and tensions in the Middle East that keep oil prices elevated.

The crypto market’s correlation with traditional risk assets remains intact, but with a twist: While Bitcoin increasingly behaves like digital gold during market stress, altcoins are getting hammered in the rotation to relative safety. The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the strength of crypto assets against Bitcoin, plunged from 77 to 58 points over the past week, signaling that traders are either fleeing to Bitcoin or exiting the market entirely.

Bitcoin (BTC) price: The market leader holds the line

Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, trading above $114,000—up nearly 1% on the day despite broader market weakness. The flagship cryptocurrency has entered what Bitfinex analysts describe as a “cooling phase” that could lead to an explosive move to the upside.

Bitcoin price data. Image: Tradingview

The technical picture shows Bitcoin maintaining its golden cross formation, where the 50-day moving average (EMA50) sits comfortably above the 200-day line (EMA200). That means that the average price of Bitcoin over the short term is trading higher than the average price over the longer term. It’s a traditionally bullish configuration that suggests the medium-term trend remains intact.

Momentum indicators, however, tell a more nuanced story. Traders use the Squeeze Momentum Indicator to show what kind of market phase an asset is currently trading in, be it a bullish/bearish impulse or bullish/bearish trend. This indicator has flipped bearish, marking a shift in short-term direction that often precedes deeper corrections when combined with other weak signals.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, for Bitcoin sits at just 18, well below the 25 threshold that traders use to confirm strong trend establishment. Think of ADX as a trend strength meter: readings below 20 indicate directionless trading where neither bulls nor bears have control, while readings above 25 signal a mature trend with follow-through potential. Bitcoin’s weak ADX reading means the market lacks conviction to push decisively higher or lower, leaving it vulnerable to external shocks from macroeconomic events or regulatory developments.

In these moments, traders will often opt to set take-profit or stop-loss calculations on any open position, since markets under these conditions tend to bounce around a lot within specific support and resistance levels. For Bitcoin, that range is currently within $108K to $118K.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, for Bitcoin is currently at right around 50. RSI measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100. A score of 50 indicates a balanced market trying to digest how strong this multi-month correction might be. However, the combination of weak trend strength and bearish Squeeze Momentum creates a wait-and-see environment where traders are content to let Bitcoin consolidate its year-to-date gains before committing fresh capital.

In terms of sentiment, prediction market data reflects the near-term bearishness seen in the charts. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, largely expect more red candles on the Bitcoin chart before tomorrow afternoon, placing those odds at 74%.

Myriad traders are also currently split on Bitcoin’s next direction, with 53% odds placed on an upward move toward $125K (a new all-time high) and 47% odds on a dip back down to $105K. For context, Myriad traders are much more bullish on gold at the moment, placing odds at 70% that the precious metal outperforms its digital counterpart for the rest of 2025.



Key Levels:

• Immediate support: $109,000 (recent consolidation zone)
• Strong support: $106,000 (psychological level and options concentration)
• Immediate resistance: $116,000 (recent rejection point)
• Strong resistance: $120,000 (approach to all-time high territory)

Cardano (ADA) price: Long-term bull meets short-term bear

Cardano, the ETH competitor developed by Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson, today finds itself in an interesting position, according to the charts.

The token, which traders as ADA, is down roughly 1% today, trading at just above $0.80. That’s enough for a $29 billion market cap, but off by around 74% from its all-time high of $3.09 four years ago.

Cardano (ADA) price data. Image: Tradingview

Still, for ADA bulls, the long-term structure remains encouraging.

The 50-day EMA for Cardano sits above the 200-day EMA and in that “golden triangle” formation that traders love so much. But the short-term momentum is soft, and the gap between the moving averages is closing, pointing to a possible “death cross” in the future.

A death cross is basically the opposite of a golden cross. If the EMA50 trades below the EMA200, it generally means the longer you hold, the more you lose. It is usually considered a solid indicator of a bearish trend, just as much as the golden cross is considered bullish for the same reasons.

The RSI for ADA is at 40, which sits in bearish-to-neutral territory, signaling consistent—if not panicky—selling. The ADX at 22 underscores the lack of a decisive trend, aligning with choppy, range-bound trading. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator in the “off” status shows bearish momentum, suggesting the downward move is already in progress rather than coiling for a breakout.

The price of ADA slipped below the psychologically important $0.80 today, with lower highs forming near-term. The market appears range-bound between roughly $0.75 (support near the EMA200) and $0.85 (resistance near the EMA50). Bulls need a reclaim and hold above $0.80–$0.82 to flip momentum; otherwise, a test of $0.75–$0.76 remains on the table.

At the moment, Myriad traders lean bullish, with the market setting the line at 55% that ADA sooner pumps to $1 than dumps all the way down to $0.60.

Key Levels:

• Immediate support: $0.750 (range bottom)
• Immediate resistance: $0.809 (today’s high)
• Strong resistance: $0.850 (range top)

Dogecoin (DOGE) price: Channel support test in play

Dogecoin, the OG meme coin, fell as much as 3.3% today to $0.227 after opening at $0.235, testing critical support within an otherwise constructive longer-term setup. The day’s range—$0.236 high to $0.227 low—is a clear indication of the near-term weakness after a major correction from mid-September.

Dogecoin (DOGE) price data. Image: Tradingview

Like ADA, DOGE enjoys a 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA. Price action is tracing a rising channel, with price now hovering near the channel’s lower boundary and the EMA band—often a “buy zone” for trend followers. Hold that level and a rebound toward $0.24–$0.26 is plausible; lose it, and a breakdown toward $0.21–$0.22 becomes more likely.

RSI at 43 is neutral-to-bearish, while ADX at 17 signals “no clear trend”—conditions that punish breakout attempts and favor range tactics (buying support, selling resistance). The Squeeze Momentum Indicator mirrors ADA: bearish momentum with the squeeze “off,” implying the down move is underway rather than loading.

Despite near-term weakness, Dogecoin’s fundamental backdrop has improved significantly. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas is certain we’ll have a Dogecoin ETF approved by year-end, potentially opening doors for pension funds and institutional portfolios to gain DOGE exposure through regulated investment vehicles.

We all know what ETFs have done for Bitcoin and Ethereum—billions upon billions in fresh capital that have played a critical role in a multi-year bull market for crypto. Dogecoin holders are no doubt wondering if there will be enough left for them too.

Key Levels:

• Immediate support: $0.227 (psychological channel lower boundary and EMA200)
• Immediate resistance: $0.236 (today’s high and EMA50)
• Next resistance: $0.25 (apparent zone, not strong but still in play)

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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