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Sentiment

Myriad Moves: Ethereum and Solana Sentiment Flips Bearish as Prices Tumble

by admin September 28, 2025

In brief

A volatile crypto market has led to drastic odds shifts on some of Myriad’s most-traded prediction markets.
Predictors have flipped bearish on Ethereum and PENGU, now suggesting both are more likely to “dump” then rise to new heights.
While a Solana all-time high by the year’s end felt likely last week, predictors now no longer expect it.

The crypto market is slumping this week as liquidations surge, prompting major changes to some of Myriad’s most traded prediction markets.

In the span of a week, predictors have flipped from bullish to bearish, swinging the odds completely for markets related to the price of Ethereum, Solana, and Pudgy Penguins’ culture coin, PENGU.

Here’s a deeper look into some of the most-traded markets on Myriad this week.

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)

Ethereum’s next hit: moon to $5K or dip to $3.5K?

Market Open: August 11
Market Close: Open to resolution
Volume: $140K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Ethereum’s Next Hit: Moon to $5K or Dip to $3.5K” market on Myriad

The euphoria around the short-lived Ethereum all-time high push last month has all but faded at present time. The second-largest crypto asset by market cap came within $54 of hitting $5,000 in late August, but has since slid below $4,000 at the time of writing.

That price volatility has mirrored itself on the Myriad market that asks predictors about the next stop for ETH—$3,500 or $5,000.

Since the market opened on August 11, predictors had leaned bullish, with odds hitting as high as 81% in favor of $5,000 on September 13. Less than two weeks later, though, the market has flipped bearish, with predictors now favoring a dip to $3,500 at 68%.

After a hectic race to accumulate Ethereum, digital asset treasuries have cooled their pace of late and Ethereum ETFs have seen three consecutive days of outflows, further pulling the price of ETH down alongside the broader market.

Now more than 20% off its all-time high, ETH sits around 11% from the $3,500 level in this market. Holders looking to hedge their positions on Myriad could stand to gain around 32% should the asset fall to that marker sooner than it can make the leap to $5,000.

What’s Next? ETH is now down 15% in the last seven days, with analysts telling Decrypt on Thursday that a key support level sits at $3,000.

New Solana all-time high by year end?

Market Open: August 6
Market Close: December 31
Volume: $94.4K
Link: See the latest odds on the “New Solana All-Time High By Year End” market on Myriad

Solana made a new all-time high of $293.31 in January as it gained enormous amounts of attention and momentum amid the launch of the President’s official meme coin.

Since that time though, it’s fallen 32% to $197.14.

Myriad asks predictors whether or not SOL will hit a new all-time high before the end of the year. Last week, predictors said “yes,” giving 66% odds of a new high mark for SOL before 2026.

Fast-forward one week, however, and things are much different.

SOL has fallen more than 21% in the last seven days as the broader market slumps, pulling down odds of the new all-time high by a similar amount. Those odds now stand at 43% as predictors lean bearish on the feat.

The token’s slide stands in the face of increasing Solana treasury buy pressure, one part of the recipe that Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan identified is crucial for an “epic” end to the year for SOL. Last week, Forward Industries bought nearly $1.6 billion worth of SOL for its treasury. It later filed for $4 billion more in funding to fuel additional purchases.

That buy pressure combined with looming ETF decisions in the next month could be a catalyst for the run to a new all-time high. But is it already priced in? Predictors must think so.

What’s Next? SEC decisions on as many as 90 ETFs, many tracking Solana, are expected in mid-October.

PENGU price: pump to $0.05 or dump to $0.02?

Market Open: September 16
Market Close: Until resolution
Volume: $22.1K
Link: See the latest odds on the “PENGU Price: Pump to $0.05 or Dump to $0.02?” market on Myriad

Since its launch late last year, PENGU has provided Pudgy Penguins enthusiasts with an opportunity to invest in a fungible asset—something other than the Ethereum NFT collections tied to the brand.

The ecosystem’s culture coin launched on Solana in December and quickly jumped above $0.06 before retracing in the following weeks—and trading well below $0.01 for most of Q1. After another steep rise this summer, the token has fallen 29% in the week, now changing hands at $0.027.

The recent price action has led to volatility in Myriad’s prediction market, which asks predictors which stop is next for PENGU—$0.05 or $0.02.

Last week, predictors were bullish, placing odds at $0.05 at more than 68% this time last Thursday. But in just one week, the odds have done a complete reversal, shifting more than 30% in both directions and now favoring $0.02 as the likely next step for PENGU.

PENGU hasn’t been as low as $0.02 since July, and to get there, it would need to fall a further 27% from today’s mark. Predictors feel that’s much more likely than an 82% jump to $0.05.

What’s Next? A decision on Canary’s PENGU ETF is due in the coming weeks. If approved, could it be a catalyst needed to propel the asset back towards $0.05?

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September 28, 2025 0 comments

GameFi Guides

Risk-Off Sentiment Dominates Ahead of PCE Release

by admin September 26, 2025

The crypto market is a sea of red, with the CoinDesk 20 Index down 5% in 24 hours and all members lower.

Most major tokens continue to see capital outflows from futures market and persistent bias for protection against declines in the form of put options tied to BTC$109,018.03 and ETH$3,885.66 on Deribit.

Friday’s U.S. core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, will be closely watched for signs of a tariff-led resurgence in price pressures in the economy. A hotter-than-expected print could add to volatility in financial markets.

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

Plasma, a new blockchain purpose-built for stablecoins, launched its mainnet beta and native token XPL on Thursday, debuting with a fully diluted valuation that’s now above $12 billion.
The layer-1 network, backed by Bitfinex, Bybit, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino and tech billionaire Peter Thiel, entered the market with over $2 billion worth of XPL tokens in circulation.
Built for high-speed, low-fee stablecoin operations, Plasma aims to serve as the back end for a new class of DeFi applications. At launch, liquidity was already deployed across major platforms including Aave, Ethereum, Euler and Fluid.
These include Plasma One, which is billed as a “stablecoin-native neobank.”
Some tokens sold to U.S. investors are locked until mid-2026 due to regulatory restrictions, which may lower the effective float in early trading.

Derivatives Positioning

By Omkar Godbole

Most major tokens, including BTC and ETH continued to experience capital outflows from futures market, leading to a decline in the notional open interest (OI).
That’s only to be expected as the market soon shakes out overleveraged bets.
Notably, the BTC and ETH OI have continued to decline in the past couple of hours, raising questions about the sustainability of the minor price recovery.
Smaller coins like KAS and KCS have seen a moderate increase in OI in the past 24 hours.
Volume in crypto perpetuals listed on Aster DEX has surged to over $46 billion in the past 24 hours, significantly higher than Hyperliquid’s $17 billion.
On the CME, BTC futures OI has almost reversed the early September spike from 134K BTC to 149K BTC, representing renewed capital outflows. On the other hand, OI in options continues to rise, approaching the November 2024 high of 56.19K BTC.
Positioning in ETH futures and options remains elevated on Deribit, with an annualized three-month basis at 7%, a significantly lower yield than SOL’s 15%.
BTC, ETH options risk reversals continue to lean bearish out to the December expiry, data from Deribit show. In SOL and XRP’s case, pricing is biased bullish for the year-end expiry

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September 26, 2025 0 comments

GameFi Guides

Slides 6% as Bitcoin Drop Slashes Bullish Sentiment

by admin September 26, 2025

XRP’s push above $2.90 collapsed under heavy selling on Sept. 25, with a $277 million volume spike hammering price back to $2.75.

The move erased more than $18 billion in market value over the past week and confirmed fresh resistance at $2.80, leaving traders bracing for a test of $2.70 support.

News Background

• XRP slid 5.83% over the Sept. 25–26 session, falling from $2.92 to $2.75 on heavy institutional selling.
• A sharp rejection at $2.80 during the 17:00 hour triggered a 276.77 million volume spike — more than 2.5x the 24-hour average.
• Despite SEC approval of the first U.S. XRP ETF, optimism has been offset by Powell’s warnings on valuations and rising Treasury yields.
• Over the past week, XRP’s market value has contracted by $18.94 billion, down 10.22%, breaking below the $3.00 psychological threshold.

Price Action Summary

XRP traded between $2.92 and $2.74 — a 6.3% intraday range — before closing near $2.75.
• Sellers dominated after $2.80 rejection on extreme volume, creating a distribution zone that capped further upside.
• Subsequent recovery attempts stalled around $2.81–$2.82, confirming fresh resistance clusters.
• Final hour saw a brief 1.09% bounce from $2.75 to $2.78, driven by concentrated flows between 00:50–00:57 on volumes above 3 million per candle.
• Short-term support is now seen at $2.75–$2.77, with downside risk toward $2.70 if breached.

Technical Analysis

• Range: $0.18 (6.3%) between $2.92 high and $2.74 low.
• Resistance: $2.80 initial rejection; $2.81–$2.82 clusters formed on failed retests.
• Support: $2.75 zone defended in late session; $2.70 psychological level next watch.
• Volume: 276.77M at 17:00 vs. 108.42M daily average.
• Pattern: High-volume rejection signals distribution. Short-term consolidation near $2.77 suggests indecision before next move.

What Traders Are Watching

• Whether $2.75 holds through Asia session or breaks toward $2.70.
• ETF optimism versus real money outflows — sell-the-news pattern remains in play.
• Whale flows after $800M in transfers over past week; positioning risk if selling resumes.
• Macro overhang: Powell’s hawkish tone, Treasury yields climbing, Fed cut expectations capped.

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September 26, 2025 0 comments

NFT Gaming

IBIT Sentiment Stays Bearish For Two Straight Months

by admin September 24, 2025

Key metric tied to BlackRock’s Nasdaq-listed spot BTC$112,754.12 exchange-traded fund, IBIT, has been flashing warning signs for two straight months.

IBIT’s one-year put-call skew, a measure of market sentiment or pessimism, flipped positive on July 25 and has remained comfortably above zero since then, according to data source Market Chameleon. That’s two straight months of bearish put bias.

In other words, traders have consistently favored protective puts over bullish calls for two months, signaling a sustained cautious or risk-averse outlook.

A similar put option bias was observed from March 8 to April 21 this year, a period marked by sharp declines in both the spot price and IBIT, primarily driven by the trade war-induced weakness on Wall Street.

IBIT’s uptrend has stalled

IBIT’s price trend has stalled since July, failing multiple times to rise above the $70 level. Recently, it formed a “lower high” at $66, meaning the recent peak price was lower than the previous high near $70.

This pattern signals weakening buying pressure and suggests that sellers are gaining strength. The formation of lower highs often indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum.

IBIT has established a lower high. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Read more: Bitcoin ‘Buy The Dip’ Calls Surge, But Liquidity Trends Point to $107K as Potential Magnet

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September 24, 2025 0 comments

Arkham reveals UAE’s $700m Bitcoin holdings originating from mining

Crypto Trends

Bitcoin price regains $117K as Fed rate cut lifts sentiment

by admin September 18, 2025

Bitcoin price climbed back above $117,000 after the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut of the year, sparking renewed optimism across risk assets.

Summary

Bitcoin trades at $117,476, up 0.9% in 24 hours, with volume jumping nearly 50%.
Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, its first reduction since Dec. 2024.
Derivatives data shows rising open interest, signaling stronger market participation.

At press time, BTC was trading at $117,476, up 0.9% on the day and 3% over the past week. Bitcoin’s 24-hour spot trading volume surged 49.6% to $60.9 billion, indicating renewed participation after a quiet September.

Derivatives markets saw even stronger activity. Bitcoin (BTC) futures volume jumped 65.9% to $119.8 billion, while open interest rose 1.6% to $85.7 billion, according to Coinglass data.

Growing open interest combined with rising volume indicates that traders are taking on new leveraged positions rather than just exiting old ones. Larger directional moves are often preceded by this combination, suggesting higher volatility in the days to come.

Fed rate cut improves liquidity outlook

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 on Sept. 17 to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 4.00%–4.25% range. This marks the first reduction since December 2024, driven largely by rising unemployment, which hit 4.3% in August, the highest since 2021.

Chairman Jerome Powell referred to the action as “risk management,” indicating that employment concerns now outweigh inflation risks, even though inflation remained above target (headline CPI at 2.9% and core at 3.1%). The cut weakened the U.S. dollar, lifted equities, and pushed crypto markets higher.

Commenting on the impact on digital assets, Andrew Forson, President of DeFi Technologies, told crypto.news:

“There will be continued inflows into innovation and tech-related businesses since the returns they stand to offer will be considerably higher than less risky government-backed fixed income instruments, whose return profiles will be reduced.”

Forson also noted that staking-focused digital asset projects are becoming increasingly attractive compared to traditional fixed-income instruments, as they offer both yield generation and potential capital appreciation.

Bitcoin price technical analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading inside the upper half of its Bollinger Bands, with resistance near $118,700 and support around $112,900. At 62, the Relative Strength Index indicates neutral momentum but is moving toward overbought territory.

Bitcoin daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

The 10-day and 20-day moving averages are both below the current price, indicating that the short-term trend is still bullish. The MACD also shows a buy signal, though momentum indicators such as Stochastic RSI and Williams %R suggest caution as they hover near overbought levels.

In a bullish scenario, a break above $118,700 might open the door for a retesting of the mid-August high of $124,128. If Bitcoin is unable to maintain $115,000, the 100-day SMA, which is close to $111,600, will be the next support.

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September 18, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Briefly Swells to $116K as Macro Tailwinds Lift Trader Sentiment

by admin September 14, 2025

In brief

Bitcoin briefly swelled to a 19-day high, driven by cooler U.S. inflation data that has increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
The crypto market’s bullish sentiment is also fueled by significant ETF inflows and a decline in selling pressure.
Experts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s future, with expectations of a “big surge” and new highs by the end of the year.

Bitcoin’s bullish start to the week extended on Thursday, hitting a 19-day high, with experts citing slightly cooler inflation data as a tailwind ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 17 rate cut decision.

The top crypto is up 1.5% in the past 24 hours, per CoinGecko data, extending Wednesday’s push that ended a two-week consolidation. Bitcoin is currently trading at $115,680 after climbing to just above $116,300 earlier in the trading session.

“I think this week’s price action has been driven by growing expectations that the U.S. Fed will cut interest rates in their next meeting after producer inflation data was lower than expected,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, told Decrypt.

The August 2025 U.S. Producer Price Index unexpectedly fell by 0.1%, compared to July’s massive spike that kicked off a market selling spree.

It marked the first decline for the PPI since April, with the data showing that it was driven by lower prices for unprocessed goods, such as crude petroleum, and easing service costs.

“Markets are up as the odds of a rate cut next week now seem all but certain,” Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, told Decrypt. “The Fed is set to turn the money printer on, especially in light of weak jobs growth across the U.S.”

CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 92.7% odds of a 25 basis point rate cut, while a half-point rate cut hovers around 7.3%.

“We’re probably going to have another big surge up toward the end of the year as the Fed begins its cutting cycle,” Michael Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, said in a CNBC interview on Thursday.

Looking to the future, Moreno is bullish, as the downward pressure on prices declines. On-chain data shows that selling pressure from profit-taking has been exhausted.

Dawson is also optimistic and expects Bitcoin to hit new highs in the coming weeks, driven by a surge in ETF inflows.

Although Bitcoin pushed to a 19-day high, key altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana hover around single-digit gains. Dogecoin and Hyperliquid, however, are up 25% and 23%, respectively, in the past 24 hours.

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September 14, 2025 0 comments

NFT Gaming

Bitcoin Price Reversing Gains as US Inflation Reshapes Sentiment

by admin September 11, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) is steadily reversing the more than 3.8% gains of the last seven days as the effect of U.S. inflation hit the flagship cryptocurrency. As highlighted by Ted Pillows, a vocal market analyst, Bitcoin, which previously surged past $114,000 and looked like it was heading for the next level, has lost momentum.

Bitcoin trading weakens after leak

Notably, the pullback is the result of broader economic developments that are weighing in on the financial market.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, has shown upward movement, increasing from 2.7% to 2.9%. This signals that inflation remains high and is affecting investment patterns.

Could U.S. Tariffs fund Bitcoin bull run?

Bitcoin has high chances of a rebound if Fred Krueger’s predictions happen. The former Wall Street quant opines that the U.S. could start buying BTC, using tariff money. The U.S has the potential to generate $50 billion monthly, and investing that in Bitcoin could see the purchase of up to 400,000 BTC.

This could trigger a bullish rally for the flagship coin as the demand will flip the supply, pushing the price upward.

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September 11, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

Sentiment signals could spark the next rally

by admin September 7, 2025

Santiment’s latest analysis shows that on-chain metrics and social sentiment are successfully flagging crypto turning points, from XRP’s peak to Cardano’s bottom.

Summary

Santiment reports crypto sentiment has flipped to fear across the market.
Whale activity signaled XRP’s top, while fear marked Cardano’s price bottom.
Weak U.S. data fueled Fed rate cut bets, driving risk-off trading behavior.

Bitcoin diverges from traditional markets

On-chain data is proving effective at identifying market turning points. Whale activity successfully pinpointed XRP’s recent peak, and extreme crowd fear correctly signaled Cardano’s price bottom.

As Fed rate cut speculation drives investor behavior, Bitcoin (BTC) and traditional markets have diverged in an unusual pattern: stocks edge higher while BTC lags.

This has created an unusual gap between the assets that historically move together.

This divergence could present an opportunity if historical patterns hold. When such gaps appear, Bitcoin often catches up to stock market performance. This suggests potential upside if the traditional correlation reasserts itself.

Bitcoin’s Network Realized Profit/Loss metric recently spiked during the price decline. This shows healthy capitulation and profit-taking behavior.

Meanwhile, social media sentiment hit extreme negativity just as tokens like DANO began rallying—a textbook contrarian signal. With traders abandoning smaller altcoins for established cryptocurrencies, the current environment may be setting the stage for strategic buying opportunities among the assets most feared by the crowd.

Bitcoin’s divergence from S&P 500: Santiment

Contrarian signals emerge in altcoin markets

Cardano provided a textbook example of contrarian sentiment signaling. The token’s price began rallying precisely when social media sentiment hit extreme negative levels.

Santiment analysis of social narratives shows that the crypto community is focused on large-cap crypto. They also concluded that traders are less interested in obscure altcoins.

Santimeny analysis of social narratives

This pattern shows the market situation where extreme fear creates buying opportunities for contrarian investors.

The current environment suggests that while fear dominates headlines and smaller altcoins struggle, these conditions may be setting up future opportunities.

Investors monitoring sentiment extremes and on-chain metrics may find value in assets where crowd pessimism has reached peak levels.

The shift away from smaller altcoins toward established cryptocurrencies shows the flight-to-quality behavior typical during uncertain market periods.

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September 7, 2025 0 comments

NFT Gaming

Cryptos Steady as Rate Cuts Sentiment Lingers Ahead of Jobs Report

by admin September 5, 2025

Bitcoin BTC$112,375.73 steadied near $111,600 on Friday morning, showing relative resilience even as macro jitters pulled global risk assets lower. Ether (ETH) slipped 0.7% to $4,330 while Solana’s SOL (SOL) added 1.3% to trade above $204. XRP XRP$2.8418 hovered near $2.81, flat on the day but up 3.5% over the week.

The week’s backdrop has been dominated by U.S. labor data and shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve. Friday’s jobs report is widely expected to show unemployment climbing, firming bets on a September rate cut. But traders are no longer expecting an extended easing cycle.

“While high unemployment numbers indicated the Fed is likely to cut rates in mid-September, traders now believe that reductions throughout the rest of the year will be limited in scope,” said Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE. “The Fed is wary of introducing too much new money into the economy for fear of inflation. This is why gold has rallied while cryptocurrencies and stocks fell.”

Gold touched a fresh high above $3,500 an ounce earlier this week, indicative of a broad appetite for hard stores of value. That parallel has only heightened comparisons between the metal and bitcoin.

“Bitcoin has matured beyond being just a speculative asset and is widely recognized as a store of value and a hedge against currency debasement, fiscal instability, and geopolitical risk,” said Vikrant Sharma, CEO of Cake Wallet, in a Telegram message.

“Volatility has reduced but not disappeared, which is understandable for an asset just over a decade old. The narrative has shifted: it’s now a strategic allocation rather than just a speculative asset,” he added.

Sharma added that periods of low volatility often precede major price moves. “A $100,000 plus floor makes Bitcoin feel less like a high-beta trade and more like a global reserve asset in the making,” he said.

Despite headwinds, Bitcoin’s dominance has remained firm. It still commands approximately 60% of the total crypto market capitalization, helping to stabilize sentiment even as altcoins have swung sharply.

“Despite recent market volatility, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience, dropping only 3% while maintaining its 60% dominance,” said Nassar Achkar, Chief Strategy Officer at CoinW, in an email.

“The Fed’s potential rate cuts later this year, combined with ongoing institutional adoption via ETFs and digital asset tokens, continue to provide strong fundamental support. That said, traders should remain cautious of shifting policies which may drive near-term fluctuations,” Achkar added.

The mixed outlooks come amid market fragility heading into September, historically crypto’s weakest month.

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September 5, 2025 0 comments

GameFi Guides

Traders Caution of 12% Drop as Lack of Catalysts Marr Sentiment

by admin September 3, 2025

Bitcoin’s (BTC) slide into September comes with an uncomfortable reminder for traders that history is not on their side.

The largest token by market capitalization has declined in nine of the last 14 September months, with an average monthly loss of around 12%.

This seasonality looms large again in 2025. Bitcoin opened the week near $110,000, its weakest level in nearly two months, and total crypto market capitalization has slipped to $3.74 trillion, reaching a three-week low.

BTC prices have been flat over the past 24 hours, with Solana’s SOL (SOL) leading gains at 4%, XRP XRP$2.8149 posting 1% and Cardano’s ADA (ADA) rising 1.5%.

Traders say the combination of macro uncertainty, fragile sentiment, and thinning volumes leaves little room for error heading into what has historically been the toughest month on the calendar.

The technicals don’t inspire much confidence either. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that the broader capitalization chart “continues to record a series of lower lows, signaling a downward trend.”

He pointed to Bitcoin’s failure to hold $112,000 and warned of “further decline toward the $105,000 area,” a level that has long acted as support before the psychological $100,000 barrier.

The crypto fear index has slipped back toward 40, its lowest since April, suggesting nerves are rising before they’ve fully broken.

In 2017, bitcoin dropped nearly 8% in September despite the euphoric rally that carried it to $20,000 later that year. In 2019, the token lost almost 14% in September, foreshadowing months of sideways action.

Even in the latest cycle, September 2021 and 2022 both saw steep drawdowns, reminding traders that liquidity drains and macro jitters often coincide with the end of summer.

This year, those headwinds are visible in ETF flows. After steady accumulation through much of August, spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded net outflows of $440 million last week.

Ether ETFs, which launched just last year, posted more than $1 billion in inflows, marking a rare bright spot but also a sign that capital may be rotating rather than growing overall.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows spot ETFs have now absorbed more than 1.3 million BTC, nearly 6% of total supply, putting them on par with the largest exchanges for market share.

The risk is that support levels break before macro relief arrives. Non-farm payrolls due Friday are expected to show just 45,000 new jobs, confirming a slowing U.S. labor market.

A soft print would strengthen the case for a September rate cut from the Fed, a catalyst that could flip sentiment back to risk-on. Until then, traders are paying up for downside hedges.

Options data shows the strongest demand for puts in weeks, with skew leaning firmly bearish, FxPro’s Kuptsikevich noted, calling for caution among intra-day traders.

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September 3, 2025 0 comments