In brief
- Altcoin Season Index data suggests market rotation as Bitcoin dominance drops.
- Ethereum continues to build momentum while Bitcoin’s appears to stall.
- But one altcoin stood above the rest today: Crypto.com’s Cronos, or CRO. Here’s why
Grab your umbrellas crypto traders, it looks like altcoin season might be here again.
Altcoin season refers to periods when alternative cryptocurrencies significantly outperform Bitcoin, typically marked by capital rotation from BTC into smaller, more volatile assets. It’s essentially a great time for non-Bitcoin maxis. During a relatively brief period—typically weeks or months—the values of altcoins soar as investors move their funds from Bitcoin to other coins.
With the crypto market holding above $3.9 trillion today, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index is now back up to 53 out of 100. That’s not nearly as high as back in December 2024, when the index hit a whopping 87 points, but it has been trending up consistently since April, when it hit a low of 12.
As we covered yesterday, market data at the moment points to a rising interest in alternative crypto assets to Bitcoin.
Altcoin Season Index. Source: CoinMarketCap
Coinbase Institutional’s global head of research, David Duong, wrote two weeks ago that current market conditions were already then signaling the early stages of an altcoin season, noting that Bitcoin dominance declined from 65% in May to 59% in August.
This decline in BTC dominance—when Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market cap shrinks—is the classic harbinger of altcoin season.
Key macro indicators suggest we’re in a transitional phase. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates remains crucial, with lower inflation and looming rate cuts from the Fed potentially driving liquidity back into risk assets like cryptocurrencies and fueling altcoin rallies. Additionally, improving market liquidity and growing stablecoin issuance provide the fuel altcoins need to run.
”That market thesis has mostly played out as we expected, given the alignment of stronger than expected macro conditions and a clearer crypto regulatory framework,” Duong’s report noted.
So is it time to move your bags? That depends on your risk appetite. At the moment, though, as Bitcoin and Ethereum—the two biggest crypto assets by market cap—catch their breath, other coins are starting to run: Solana is up more than 16% over the last week while Hyperliquid has notched gains above 14%.
And that’s nothing compared to Crypto.com’s CRO. Here’s what the charts are looking like.
Cronos (CRO) price: Trump Media fuels historic rally
No other altcoin today is pumping as hard as Cronos, which trades as CRO, the native token of the Crypto.com trading platform.
The token is up more than 120% in the last seven days, now trading for $0.31. Why? The Trump pump, naturally.
Trump Media, the President Trump-owned company behind the social media platform Truth Social, has made several business dealings with Crypto.com over the last few months. But most recently, the companies announced a plan to integrate Crypto.com’s wallet infrastructure on Truth Social and adopt CRO as a utility token for rewards and subscriptions on the platform.
Cronos (CRO) price data. Image: TradingView
The companies will also exchange investments: Trump Media will buy $105 million in CRO (~2% of supply), and Crypto.com will acquire $50 million in DJT shares. The deal includes creating a $6.4 billion treasury focused on CRO accumulation, instantly making it one of crypto’s most ambitious corporate treasury plays.
And, well, being backed by the president of the United States is a pretty strong thing to add to your fundamental analysis of any asset.
But CRO’s charts show how unnatural FUD and FOMO can affect the crypto market.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, for Cronos is at 39 indicates, which indicates a powerful trend in place. ADX measures trend strength, regardless of direction, on a scale from 0 to 100. Anything above 25 confirms a trend, and anything above 40 is considered a very strong trend.
The token’s Relative Strength Index, though, is at 89, which is typically considered dangerously high. RSI measures trading momentum, likewise on a scale from 0 to 100, and usually anything above 70 is considered “overbought” and ripe for a correction. At 89, CRO is in severely overbought territory, which usually triggers profit-taking. On the other hand, in times of FOMO, high RSI readings can hold during the kind of parabolic move CRO is currently experiencing.
Exponential moving averages, or EMAs, can give traders a sense of where price supports and resistances on chart are at the moment. Traders will look at the 50-day EMA, the short-term average, and the 200-day EMA, the long-term average price, to measure the distance between those averages at the current price of the asset.
With CRO, the spread between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA is expanding rapidly, with current price action far above both, confirming strong bullish momentum.
Support for the token sits at $0.18 (the breakout level) while resistance rests at $0.40 (the psychological target).
Bitcoin (BTC) price: The sleeping giant
For context, Bitcoin’s daily performance will look boring to thrill-seeking degens in search of market action.
Bitcoin opened the day at $111,272 and currently trades at $112,497—up a modest 1.1% after reaching an intraday low of $110,876. The king of crypto appears to be consolidating and struggling to resume its bullish trend, which historically creates opportunities for altcoins to shine.
Bitcoin (BTC) price data. Image: TradingView
From a technical perspective, BTC’s ADX sits at a weak 17, indicating that the current global bullish trend is already too weak to be considered solid. ADX readings below 20 signal choppy, directionless trading. This lack of momentum creates the perfect environment for altcoin rotation.
The 50-200 EMA configuration shows BTC trading between these key averages, with the 50-day EMA providing resistance around $114,000 while the 200-day sits lower near the $104,000 price zone. Traders would widely see this as bearish. But it’s not nearly bad enough to start hearing talk of death crosses or crypto winters—yet.
The lack of “squeeze” signals between moving averages show that prices may keep their direction in the short term until they find a stronger support. The RSI at 45 leans slightly bearish but isn’t oversold, suggesting room for movement in either direction.
Key Levels:
- Immediate support: $108,000 (psychological level)
- Immediate resistance: $114,500 (EMA50)
- Strong resistance: $120,000 (recent rejection zone)
Ethereum (ETH) price: Building momentum
The day’s Ethereum chart tells a more bullish story.
ETH today opened at $4,507, spiked towards $4,631 (2.7% above current price) before correcting to its current price around $4,494.
The price has barely moved, but it is currently registering lower highs and higher lows throughout the week, without losing its key support.
Ethereum (ETH) price data. Image: TradingView
The ADX at 36 confirms a strong trending environment. ADX readings above 25 indicate established trends, and at 36, we’re seeing confirmed directional movement that trend-followers rely on. This suggests Ethereum’s recent strength isn’t just noise but represents genuine market conviction.
The 50-day EMA sits well below current prices, providing solid support in the $4,000 zone, and the 200-day EMA acts as a foundation near $3,000. This bullish stack where shorter-term averages support higher prices typically occurs in strong uptrends and gives buyers multiple opportunities to enter on dips.
RSI at 56 shows healthy momentum without being overbought. After ETH’s massive rally from $3,000 to over $4,600, this middling RSI represents healthy consolidation with a market digesting gains without becoming oversold, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator status is “on,” which is highly significant for traders. This indicator identifies periods when volatility compresses before explosive moves. When it fires “on,” it signals a breakout from consolidation is underway in either direction. However, combined with the bullish price action above key averages, the symmetrical triangle in formation and the overall bullish indicators, things seem to point towards increased volatility likely to the upside.
Key Levels:
- Immediate support: $4,200
- Strong support: $3,900 (200-day EMA zone)
- Immediate resistance: $4,786 (weak resistance)
- Strong resistance: $5,000 (major psychological target and new ATH)
Bitcoin’s weak ADX and neutral momentum create perfect conditions for altcoin outperformance while Ethereum’s technical strength suggests the second-largest crypto could lead any broader altcoin rally. If the typical red September to green October pattern repeats this year, the last quarter could act as a catalyst for a full-scale altcoin season.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
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