Bitcoin’s chart has boiled down to a coin toss between two very different futures. Data from Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands now highlights $115,440 as the pivotal price point — the line that separates continued growth from a potential market correction that could affect every crypto investor.
Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, acts as a compass for Bitcoin. It compares the market price to what investors actually paid, creating “bands” that reveal when traders are either overly greedy or on the verge of panic.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $116,826, barely holding onto the orange band, meaning the market is on a threshold that could easily propel the price higher or cause it to fall.
Scenarios
Scenario 1: If the line is held, the next target is $137,300. This band has historically been where sellers start to unload, securing outsized gains and cooling the rally.
Scenario 2: Lose this, and Bitcoin will not just drift lower — it will fall into open space, down to $93,600. That’ is a $23,000 drop that would take the price back to where the year’s accumulation began.
Bitcoin is already trading at more than double its realized price of $53,345, meaning the market is operating well within the zone where emotions dictate moves. Liquidity is low, ETF inflows are competing with speculators and macro forces — such as the direction of the Fed’s policy — are affecting sentiment every other week.
Traders do not need to overcomplicate things — all eyes are on $115,440. If the current level holds, sentiment will turn bullish again. If it falls, the market will be given a reality check that could undo months of growth in one go.
