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SOL Dips To $192 Ahead of Key ETF Ruling
Crypto Trends

SOL Dips To $192 Ahead of Key ETF Ruling

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Key takeaways:

  • Solana fell to $192 on Thursday, erasing its entire rally to $253 in under a week.

  • A spot ETF ruling on Oct. 10 could unlock deeper institutional flows.

  • SOL’s RSI setup signals a potential short-term bottom despite the altcoin’s broader correction.

Solana (SOL) slipped below the $200 mark on Thursday, erasing its recent rally to an eight-month high of $253. The 19% dip that unfolded in a week has rattled market momentum and raised questions about near-term strength.

SOL one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Yet, a looming catalyst may change the narrative. Grayscale’s spot SOL exchange-traded fund (ETF) faces its first approval deadline on Oct. 10, a decision that could determine whether institutional capital flows begin to support SOL in a way similar to BTC and ETH over the past year.

While the REX Osprey Staking SOL ETF, launched in July, offers spot exposure, its structure is less significant than a pure spot product. A Grayscale spot ETF would allow for more direct institutional participation, potentially unlocking deeper liquidity and broader adoption.

That decision is only the first in a series of rulings. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to review five other applications, with a final deadline on Oct. 16, 2025, including proposals from Bitwise, 21Shares, VanEck, Grayscale, and Canary. Collectively, the lineup underscored the growing institutional interest in bringing SOL into mainstream investment vehicles.

Market participation in Solana, Ether, and Bitcoin. Source: Pantera Capital/X

Supporters argue the timing could be pivotal. Asset managers at Pantera Capital recently called SOL “next in line for its institutional moment,” citing under-allocation relative to BTC and ETH. While institutions hold around 16% of Bitcoin and 7% of Ether, less than 1% of SOL’s supply is institutionally owned. Pantera Capital suggested that a spot ETF could accelerate adoption, especially as companies like Stripe and PayPal expand their integrations with Solana.

Still, not all indicators point to an imminent breakout. Prediction markets platform Polymarket currently assigns just a 41% probability of SOL reaching a new all-time high in 2025. That implied lingering caution even as ETF speculation intensifies.

SOL all-time high odds for 2025. Source: Polymarket

Related: Australian fitness firm tanks 21% on Solana treasury gamble

Price indicator with an 80% hit rate signals SOL bottom

SOL’s price action has displayed remarkable volatility over the past three weeks. The token rallied to $253 from $200 in just 12 days, but a rapid reversal highlighted weakening short-term momentum, with sellers reclaiming ground faster than buyers had established it.

SOL one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

However, on higher timeframes, the broader trend remains constructive. SOL continues to form a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, keeping the daily structure bullish. The current correction is unfolding within the first major demand zone or order block between $200 and $185, which also overlaps with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement band, a region often watched for technical bounces. Holding this zone would reinforce the uptrend and potentially reset momentum.

Losing the $185 level would shift attention to the next order block between $170 and $156. While such a move would not immediately flip the daily chart bearish, it would significantly weaken trend strength and likely invite deeper selling pressure.

On the intraday side, the four-hour chart is showing signs of sellers’ exhaustion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has again dipped below 30, a level that historically signaled bottoms or higher lows for SOL.

Since April 2025, this setup has occurred five times, and on four of those occasions, SOL posted swift recoveries. If the pattern repeats, short-term relief could follow, as the higher timeframe correction plays out.

SOL four-hour chart and RSI bottom analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Related: Solana open interest hits record 72M SOL, but why is price falling?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.



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Google just asked the Supreme Court to save it from the Epic ruling
Gaming Gear

Google just asked the Supreme Court to save it from the Epic ruling

by admin


“The Supreme Court is Google’s last hope to avoid an Epic reckoning in October,” I wrote last week. Google apparently agrees. Today, it’s finally elevated its Epic v. Google case, the one that might fracture its control over the entire Android app ecosystem, to the Supreme Court level. Google has now confirmed it will appeal its case to the Supreme Court, and in the meanwhile, it’s asking the Court to press pause one more time on the permanent injunction that would start taking away its control.

On September 12th, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed that permanent injunction and gave Google until October to stop forcing app developers to use its Google Play Billing for payments, allow them to link to other ways to pay and other places to download apps, set their own prices, and more.

But the Supreme Court might see it differently. It might agree with Google’s argument that the lower courts overstepped, or that Apple’s win in Epic v. Apple is relevant to the Google case, or any number of other arguments that you can read in the full document below.

Google says it will fully appeal to the Supreme Court for certiorari by October 27th, 2025, and is asking the Supreme Court to decide whether it’ll press pause on the injunction by October 17th. Meanwhile, the district court judge who issued the injunction, Judge James Donato, is asking Google and Epic to explain how they’ll comply with it in his courtroom on October 30th.



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Google antitrust ruling clears the way for Apple’s Gemini push
Gaming Gear

Google antitrust ruling clears the way for Apple’s Gemini push

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Eddy Cue deserves a raise.

As the executive overseeing Apple’s services division, he’s highly incentivized to protect the tens of billions of dollars a year that Google pays to be the default search engine in Safari. “I’ve lost a lot of sleep thinking about it,” he said from the witness stand during Google’s antitrust trial earlier this year.

Luckily for Cue, his court testimony appears to have had a significant impact on Judge Amit Mehta, who ruled this week that Google’s default payments to Apple and others can continue. You can see Cue’s arguments at trial mirrored in Mehta’s ruling: the Apple SVP said it would be “crazy” to punish the iPhone maker by restricting Google’s ability to pay for default status, and that the rise of AI companies was remaking the search market anyway. In an attempt to downplay the significance of Apple and Google’s deal, Cue went so far as to say that Google searches in Safari were declining for the first time, which temporarily caused Google’s stock price to drop.

Those are the exact arguments Mehta ultimately made in his ruling. He acknowledged that default payments continue to “shape the market for general search services in Google’s favor,” but that banning them would have “crippling” downstream effects on the recipients of those payments. One specific effect he cited was “fewer products and less product innovation from Apple,” one of the world’s richest companies. (Google’s payments to Apple are estimated to make up about 15% of its annual profit.)

Mehta cited the rise of generative AI companies like OpenAI and Perplexity as evidence that there is finally competition in the search market. “The money flowing into this space, and how quickly it has arrived, is astonishing,” he wrote. “These new realities give the court hope that Google will not simply outbid competitors for distribution if superior products emerge.”

As Mehta well knows, the reality of Google and Apple’s financial relationship is much more complicated than that. Google has historically paid Apple a percentage of the ad revenue it earns via Safari. This aligns incentives between two of the most powerful companies on earth, both of which have shared in the upside of this arrangement for the better part of two decades.

It’s likely not a coincidence that, right after Mehta’s ruling was released, news broke that Apple is now collaborating with Google to potentially have Gemini power the AI search engine it’s developing for Siri. Apple executives have been discussing the integration of Gemini into iOS for over a year, but have held back due to obvious optics reasons. The US government has just given them permission to proceed.

“This outcome is a home run for the status quo, and the status quo has been very favorable to both Google and Apple,” the tech and media stock research firm MoffettNathanson wrote in a note to its clients this week. “We’re not suggesting that the future of search or devices is now free from competitive threat, but this decision allows the transition ahead to unfold on their terms rather than through a disruptive and damaging judgment.”

Apple and Google’s search deal should have been undone, and perhaps it still will be if Apple eventually gets its turn under the antitrust spotlight. I’ve spoken with many would-be Google Search rivals over the years who have pointed to the deal as a key factor in stifling competition. You could argue that no deal has had a greater impact on Silicon Valley over the long arc of time, in fact. The most sinister aspect is that it has enabled the two companies that already control how most people access the internet to become richer and more powerful together.

The relationship being allowed to continue now sets the stage for Apple and Google to extend their shared dominance into the age of AI. Apple is behind on AI, but remains a powerful source of distribution for Gemini via iPhones, iPads, and Macs. With search payments from Google continuing to roll in, why would Apple need to acquire a startup like Mistral or Perplexity to play catch-up? It’s already getting paid to work with one of the world’s leading AI companies and now has carte blanche to forge deeper ties.

This week’s ruling also puts OpenAI’s distribution deal with Apple for ChatGPT in a tough spot. I’m sure Apple likes having optionality, but it’s not going to jeopardize the Google relationship with the money from search continuing. OpenAI doesn’t yet have an ads business to give Apple a competitive cut from, either. Despite what Mehta thinks, it’s hard to imagine any other company being able to exceed Google’s default payments with a superior product (sorry, Microsoft). This all leaves Google and Apple where they’ve been all along: two de facto monopolies feeding each other at the expense of everyone else.

  • A seating chart for the ages: If you have intel on who decided where all the tech leaders sat for last night’s big AI dinner at the White House, please reach out. Placing Alexandr Wang directly across the table from Sam Altman was certainly a choice, as was Mark Zuckerberg’s placement between Donald Trump and David Sacks. I’ll leave the jokes about Chamath Palihapitiya’s presence to everyone who is already making them on social media.
  • Lambos coming to the OpenAI HQ garage: It can be challenging to grasp the magnitude of a $10.3 billion tender offer, which OpenAI made available this week to eligible employees. So here’s a narrower number: $30 million. That’s how much my sources say that OpenAI employees (who have been at the company for at least two years) can elect to sell by the end of this month. It’s three times more than the previous maximum cap. Let the good times roll!
  • Fidji Simo gets the band back together: Speaking of OpenAI, it’s remarkable how much its C-suite is starting to resemble that of mid-2010s Facebook. Vijaye Raji, an early Facebook engineering leader, is rejoining his former colleague, Fidji Simo, as CTO of OpenAI applications, which means he’s going to oversee the rollout of the company’s imminent browser release. His company, Statsig, is being acquired as part of the deal but will seemingly stay independent. Srinivas Narayanan, who previously ran engineering at OpenAI and is also an early Facebook leader, is now CTO of “B2B applications.” Yes, OpenAI has two CEOs and two CTOs.

If you haven’t already, don’t forget to subscribe to The Verge, which includes unlimited access to Command Line and all of our reporting.

As always, I welcome your feedback. You can respond here or ping me securely on Signal. I’d love to hear from you.

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Google critics think the search remedies ruling is a total whiff
Gaming Gear

Google critics think the search remedies ruling is a total whiff

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While Judge Amit Mehta’s decision blocks some of Google’s predatory practices, it fails to meet this historic moment and shows that his decision was made based on speculative arguments about generative AI, in which Google, because of its interlocking monopolies and distribution advantage, is already a dominant player. Search is one of the largest avenues for future AI queries, and it’s crystal clear that rather than doing the hard thing, Judge Mehta was far more willing to let Google continue bending the internet and our economy to its will than enforcing the law, which is designed to create a level playing field that benefits the American people and innovative, new companies.



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Bitcoin
GameFi Guides

United States’ Bitcoin Holdings Top $24 Billion After Ruling Out Buying

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Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

On-chain data shows the US is one of the world’s largest Bitcoin holders, with its portfolio now exceeding $24 billion. However, recent events have shown that the possibility of the US government increasing its stash is very low. Particularly, the US government’s strategy for cryptocurrency took a new turn this week after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that Washington will not be actively buying any additional Bitcoin.

Bessent Rules Out New Purchases But Leaves A Possibility

While speaking in a Fox Business interview, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained that the government has no plans to buy additional Bitcoin beyond its current reserve. The Treasury chief said the reserve will continue to be funded primarily through assets seized in criminal cases rather than direct purchases. His estimates place the value of the reserve between $15 billion and $20 billion.

Bessent later softened his position on social media, noting that even though the US is not allocating budgetary resources to acquire more Bitcoin, it is committed to “budget-neutral pathways” for expanding reserves to make the country the Bitcoin superpower of the world. The statement suggests that auctions, seizures, and non-traditional acquisitions could still increase holdings in the future, even if the Treasury avoids direct market buys.

Bitcoin Holdings Push Toward $24 Billion

Data from blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence reveals a bigger picture than Bessent’s estimates of $15 billion to 20 billion. According to Arkham, wallets linked to the US government currently hold about 198,022 BTC, valued at approximately $23.42 billion. Many of these holdings originated from seizures related to criminal activity, including the well-known Silk Road case.

The portfolio, however, extends well beyond Bitcoin. Arkham’s data reveals holdings of about 59,951 ETH, worth $273 million, along with 347 million USDT and smaller allocations across other assets such as 750 WBTC, 40,293 BNB, 5,205 WETH, and 13.6 million BUSD. Taken together, the government’s digital asset holdings are valued at approximately $24.27 billion. This figure recently climbed as high as $25 billion during Bitcoin’s surge above $124,000 last week.

Source: Chart from Arkham

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump signed into law the creation of a strategic crypto reserve, a move many interpreted as the start of government-led Bitcoin accumulation. Trump himself had many investors increase their expectations after stating that the United States would prioritize US-based cryptocurrencies like BTC as part of its financial strategy. 

This context is what made Bessent’s recent statement so significant. Although the reserve exists in law, the Treasury has now made it clear that active market purchases of Bitcoin are not on the table for the time being. However, it is clear that the US government isn’t planning to sell its holdings anytime soon, which might flood the market with selling pressure.

BTC trading at $114,859 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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