Coinbase is riding a wave of positive momentum, with a Rothschild upgrade validating its financial evolution as a massive Samsung deal simultaneously places its services directly in the hands of tens of millions of new users.
Summary
- Coinbase stock rose 2.59% to $381.80 after a Rothschild upgrade to Buy.
- Rothschild says Coinbase’s business is shifting beyond retail fees, driven by institutional trading, USDC income, and its Base network.
- Meanwhile, a landmark Samsung Wallet integration will embed Coinbase services on 75M Galaxy devices.
On Oct. 3, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) shares gained more than 2%, a move catalyzed by a strategic “Buy” upgrade from financial institution Rothschild & Co. and the simultaneous announcement of a landmark integration with Samsung.
Notably, Rothschild’s revised outlook, which includes a $417 price target, hinges on Coinbase’s successful diversification beyond its core trading business, while the Samsung deal embeds its services directly into the native wallet of 75 million Galaxy devices in the U.S.
From upgrade to embed: what’s driving Coinbase’s momentum
Rothschild’s central thesis is that the market continues to value Coinbase as a direct reflection of Bitcoin’s price, overlooking a fundamental business model shift. The institution notes that retail transaction fees, which once constituted about 90% of revenue, are projected to fall to nearly 50% next year.
According to Rothschild, this rebalancing act is being fueled by faster growth in institutional trading, derivatives, and a suite of subscription and services revenue, including its lucrative share of income from the USDC stablecoin and its burgeoning Layer-2 network, Base. Rothschild acknowledges that fee compression is an industry reality but contends that rising overall volumes and deeper institutional penetration will more than compensate.
This optimistic view of Coinbase stands in stark contrast to Rothschild’s assessment of its peers, illustrating a clear preference for diversified platforms. The institution initiated coverage of Circle, the issuer of USDC, with a neutral rating. While acknowledging the stablecoin’s dominant $73 billion supply, Rothschild pointed out Circle’s heavy reliance on interest income from its reserves, a significant portion of which (over 60%) is paid out to distribution partners like Coinbase.
For Robinhood, the outlook was more dire, with a reiterated sell rating. The bank warned that its crypto economics remain overly cyclical and dependent on retail traders, leaving it vulnerable to fee pressure as the market matures.
The Samsung integration, announced Friday, serves as a tangible execution of this diversification and could be the largest single consumer distribution play in Coinbase’s history. The deal links Samsung Pay to Coinbase accounts, placing crypto trading and payment functionality alongside everyday tools like transit passes and digital keys, normalizing digital asset use for a massive, mainstream audience.
