Research

River says companies are taking in far more bitcoin each day than miners create.

The U.S.-based bitcoin financial services firm, which runs brokerage and mining operations and publishes research, released a Sankey-style flow infographic dated Aug. 25 in a post on X. In this layout, outflows are shown on the left, inflows on the right, and the thickness of each line represents the size of the net daily movement.

River’s Aug. 25 snapshot shows businesses absorbing about 1,755 BTC/day vs about 450 mined.

River defines “businesses” broadly. The category combines bitcoin treasury companies — firms such as Strategy that publicly hold BTC — with conventional companies that keep bitcoin on their balance sheets. Based on public filings, custodial address tagging and its own heuristics, River estimates that about 1,755 BTC per day flow into business-controlled wallets.

By comparison, River calculates new miner supply at about 450 BTC per day in 2025. That figure reflects the April 2024 halving, which cut the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC per block.

With bitcoin blocks averaging one every 10 minutes — about 144 per day — the result is roughly 450 BTC in new issuance daily, though the exact number fluctuates slightly as block times vary.

That math is the basis for River’s claim that companies are absorbing bitcoin at nearly four times the rate it is mined.

The infographic shows other large institutional inflows as well.

Funds and ETFs account for about 1,430 BTC/day in net inflows, which further boosts total absorption compared with new issuance. Smaller streams go to “other” entities (about 411 BTC/day) and governments (about 39 BTC/day).

River also records a small but steady flow into “lost bitcoin” (about 14 BTC/day), representing coins that the firm judges to be permanently inaccessible, such as through key loss.

On the other side of the ledger, individuals appear as the largest net outflow at about –3,196 BTC/day. River stresses that this does not necessarily mean retail investors are dumping coins. Rather, it reflects bitcoin moving from addresses the firm classifies as individual-held into those it tags as institutional.

River says the takeaway is simple: when inflows to businesses and funds exceed new issuance from miners, available supply tightens. Still, the firm cautions that the infographic should be read carefully.

First, the figures are estimates, not an exact census of the blockchain.

River relies on a mix of wallet tagging, public disclosures and external databases, which may miss some holdings or misclassify certain addresses. Second, net inflows do not always equal direct spot buying. A business wallet showing +1,755 BTC per day could reflect OTC transactions, custodial transfers or treasury reshuffling, not just exchange purchases.

For readers unfamiliar with flow diagrams, the point is this: the lines show where coins are ending up on balance, not every trade or transfer in the system. If more coins consistently end up in business, fund and government wallets than miners are producing, River argues that institutions are tightening supply at the margin.

River’s snapshot is not a price forecast, but it illustrates how ownership patterns may be shifting. If businesses and funds continue to absorb more than miners produce, the firm argues, institutions could play a larger role in shaping bitcoin’s supply dynamics.

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The headcounts of both The Witcher 4 and Cyberpunk 2’s dev teams continue to steadily climb, as the two RPGs inch closer to our fingertips. Meanwhile, CD Projekt have confirmed that their research division are still busy deciding what the mysterious original game codenamed Project Hadar will look like.

All of these details, plus some Nintendo Switch stuff we’ve avoided hearing by sticking our mouse and keyboard-focused fingers in our ears, were revealed in the Polish publishers’ financial report covering the first half of 2025.

First, the big guns. As outlined by the handy chart below, The Witcher 4 had 422 people working on it as of April 30 and saw that number grow to 444 people by the close of July, while Cyberpunk 2 has hopped over the three digit threshold in that time, going from 96 chooms to 116. Oh bugger, sorry for dropping the c-bomb, that Cyberpunk playthrough I’m still on with is clearly getting to me.

“Our recruitment efforts have significantly sped up over the last three months, and as a result the total number of talented developers working across our projects has grown by 10%, reaching almost 800 people,” CD Projekt joint-CEO Micha&lstrok; Nowakowski explained in a presentation to investors. It’s worth noting that this current growth follows the studio laying off staff back in 2023, with some remaining workers deciding to unionise as a result.

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With Cyberpunk 2 now having fully moved from the research section of CD Projekt’s books into the development section – it’s been in pre-production for a little while now – the mysterious Project Hadar’s the most expensive research project CD Projekt have on the go. While we have some sense now of The Witcher 4, Cyberpunk 2, and Molasses Flood’s Witcher spin-off Project Sirius, Hadar remains an enigma several years on from its initial announcement back in 2022.

We know it’s going to be an original story, and some job listings have suggested that it’s an action RPG with melee combat. Nowakowski’s also been weirdly specific in ruling out that it’s a “cosmic horror in feudal Japan”. Aside from that, shrug emoji. Though, with Hadar’s 22 person strong team now looking to be the main focus of CD projekt’s research department, the company’s investors are clearly as curious for more info on it as we are.

In the call accompanying these financials, one of them rather bluntly asked whether any decisions regarding the game’s future would be made by the end of this year or 2026. Nowakowski seemed a bit taken aback by the idea of sharing more so soon.

“Hadar is still basically an IP concept, so not a game development project yet,” he responded. “We’re working on the game’s story, its background – so to say; there is some prototyping going on in terms of gameplay, because it’s hard not to do that when the end goal is to make a video game – but I’m not sure what you mean by ‘decisions’ – I mean, as in to progress to development, or whether we’re going to make [a game] or not…? We want to make this IP happen, so that decision is sort of made in terms of – when we’re going to go into development, we will announce it in due time, I think.”

You could argue it’s been a bit of a strange move for CD Projekt to have announced Hadar at the same time they did the fresh Witcher trilogy and Cyberpunk 2, if they were still going to be at this early a stage with it nearly three years down the line. Then again, that kind of transparency’s great for us journos and has probably helped CD Projekt recruit folks to work on Hadar. My money’s on it being a Keanu Reeves gacha game with 4X strategy elements and a roguelike mode based around the concept of the word ‘woah’.

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Companies Absorb BTC at 4x Daily Miner Supply, Per River’s Research

CD Projekt’s mysterious Project Hadar is now their research focus, as Cyberpunk 2 and Witcher 4 gather steam