Prize

In brief

• Bitcoin just marked a new all-time high, but Myriad users are now betting whether it’ll top $115K by EOD Sunday.
• Predictors don’t expect Coinbase to pay out any of its $20 million hack bounty before June 15.
• The final “Mission: Impossible” movie is hitting theaters, and its estimated opening weekend haul is below the Myriad line.

Everyone’s got an opinion, and prediction markets have become one of the most popular ways for users in crypto to share theirs—and maybe make some bank on it.

On Myriad Markets, users are able to predict event outcomes on markets across lots of different fields, like predicting the price of Bitcoin or the winner of the NBA Championship. And there are plenty more options beyond crypto and sports, including politics, culture, and gaming.

What’s generating interest on Myriad this week? Here’s a look at some of the most active markets, with helpful context about what might be driving current predictions. 

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)

Bitcoin price above $115K on May 25 at 11:59pm UTC?

Market Open: May 21
Market Close: May 25
Volume: $10.1K 

After a downtrend that sent Bitcoin spiraling to around $75,000 in early April, the top crypto asset has stormed back, making new all-time highs above $111,000 in the process.

Now, a new flash market on Myriad asks predictors whether or not it can rally above $115,000 in the next few days. Will records keep being set?

So far, predictors think not, giving “yes” just a 25.8% chance despite BTC picking up 2.5% in the last 24 hours and sitting just 3.4% away from $115,000. 

Those odds are up since the market opened, however, up from the 16.6% “yes” odds reflected at the low point on Wednesday afternoon. As Bitcoin sustained its rally into Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning, prediction volumes have pushed to around 26%. 

Blockstream CEO and longtime Bitcoiner Adam Back recently told Decrypt that he believes Bitcoin will hit between $500,000 and $1 million this cycle, and other analysts see runs to $200,000 and beyond. So are “no” predictors short Bitcoin, or merely think the “digital gold” has rallied hard enough of late, gaining more than 25% in the last 30 days?

What’s Next? Bitcoin is holding its own above $111,000 so far, needing a gain of just a few more percentage points in order to reach $115,000. 

Will Coinbase pay any part of the $20 million hacker bounty before June 15?

Market Open: May 21
Market Close: June 14
Volume: $2.4K 

Active crypto users were discouraged to learn that leading American exchange Coinbase suffered a major customer data breach, as disclosed last week, impacting more than 69,000 customers over the span of months.

The hackers demanded $20 million in ransom as they attempted to blackmail the firm, but Coinbase pushed back, instead offering a $20 million bounty to the public for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the attackers. 

Myriad’s prediction market asks whether or not Coinbase will pay any of that bounty by June 15 as users rush to gain more information about the breach, potentially finding the culprits in the process. 

As of Thursday morning, predictors strongly believe that no payments will be made before June 15 with odds of “no” sitting around 74.5% or about where they have been since shortly after the market opened. 

Those odds stand despite the fact that a suspected actor in Coinbase-related social engineering scams trolled notable pseudonymous on-chain investigator ZachXBT in an Ethereum transaction’s input data, calling him a “L bozo.” 

The investigator was quick to identify North Korea’s association with the $1.4 billion ByBit hack earlier this year, earning himself more than $31,000 in ByBit’s bounty program within just a few days. He’s also been involved in numerous other efforts to identify crypto attackers, leading to arrests and convictions.

Can he or others do it again? 

What’s Next? Suspected Coinbase attackers are now trolling on-chain, perhaps suggesting cockiness or confidence they won’t be caught, though it’s not clear whether this particular troll is connected to the recently disclosed attacks. But will the additional data trails help lead to their downfall?

Will ‘Mission: Impossible’ gross $95 million in revenue in its U.S. opening weekend?

Market Open: May 20
Market Close: May 22
Volume: $3.83K 

Another Tom Cruise movie is gracing big screens this weekend, opening Friday in more than 3,800 theaters across the United States. 

The question for predictors is whether “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning,” the eighth film in the long-running action series, will gross at least $95 million in its four-day opening stretch—a holiday weekend in the United States. 

Thus far the market thinks not, with odds of “no” jumping around 10% since Wednesday afternoon to around 78% at the time of writing. 

According to Deadline, the film’s greatest comparison is previous entry “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning,” which brought in more than $120 million in “like-for-like markets at today’s opening rates” when it opened in 2023.

Still though, the Hollywood news site expects the latest film starring Cruise as Ethan Hunt to bring in around $75-$85 million domestically, below the Myriad prediction line. That falls in line with Screen Rant’s expectation of around $80 million, or around 19% below the Myriad number.  

Even with Box Office Pro estimating a potential record-breaking box office weekend, it still sees the latest, and potentially last Mission: Impossible film falling well below the $95 million mark. 

What’s Next? “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” will debut in U.S. theaters on Friday.

Edited by Andrew Hayward

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