The 2025 MLB playoffs are rolling along!
After the wild-card round ended with a trio of Game 3s, the division series matchups are set with all four Game 1s starting Saturday.
Will Shohei Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers meet Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees in a World Series rematch? Is this the year the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers finally get to the Fall Classic? Will the Philadelphia Phillies make another deep run after a strong regular season?
MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield get you ready with odds for every round, why every team could win it all — or go home early — and a name to watch for on all 12 World Series hopefuls.
Note: World Series and matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.
Series outlooks | Schedule | Bracket | ESPN BET
Jump to a team:
TOR | SEA | NYY | DET
MIL | PHI | LAD | CHC
American League
No. 1 seed | 94-68 | AL East champs
ALDS opponent: Yankees (47.4% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.0% | ESPN BET Odds: +650
Team temperature: 91°
Why they can win the World Series: The Blue Jays don’t strike out, and they field as cleanly as any team in the postseason field. Toronto has scuffled lately, yes, and the culprit is a punchless offense. But Toronto has spent much of the season with one of the game’s best units in runs scored as well as wOBA, and although Bo Bichette’s return from a knee injury is questionable, the Blue Jays still have enough to mash their way past teams. They’ll need good pitching, and while there isn’t a clear ace or lockdown bullpen piece, they have droves of arms capable of excellence. There’s a reason the Blue Jays have spent much of the season fighting for the best record in the American League. Excellence isn’t accidental. And not striking out in the postseason is quite the excellent predictor of success. — Passan
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If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: George Springer. At age 35, Springer was Toronto’s best hitter this season, changing his approach by focusing more on his “A” swing at all times to generate more consistent bat speed and a higher hard-hit percentage. That resulted in nearly doubling his average launch angle while keeping his strikeout rate stable anyway. Oh, and he’s been a great postseason hitter in his career, hitting .268/.346/.529 with 19 home runs in 67 games and winning World Series MVP honors with the Astros in 2017. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the offense doesn’t wake up. The Blue Jays’ recipe for scoring runs this season centered around putting the ball in play and not striking out while still featuring some power. But that pop vanished down the stretch before turning it on the final weekend. Their struggles correspond with Bo Bichette going on the injured list with a sprained knee. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Springer were two of the best hitters in the American League this season, but Toronto clearly missed Bichette, who hasn’t been cleared to begin running. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: At some point in these playoffs, the Blue Jays will hold a narrow lead, the ninth inning will arrive, the microscope will zoom in on Jeff Hoffman, and nobody will know what to expect. Hoffman was really bad in May, July and August, pretty good in the other months, and on the whole, has allowed way too many home runs and absorbed way too many blown saves in the first season of a three-year, $33 million deal. How far the Blue Jays advance in this year’s postseason will rest largely on Hoffman’s right arm. A close-up, indeed. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Three true outcomes baseball got you down? Tune in to some Blue Jays baseball to fulfill all of your balls-in-play needs. Toronto put the ball in play in 81.7% of its plate appearances, first in the majors and the highest percentage by an AL team since the 2017 Astros. There’s a connection here, of course: Springer played for both clubs. If that means anything, it bodes well for Toronto because Houston won the 2017 World Series. We won’t get into what came after. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 90-72 | AL West champs
ALDS opponent: Tigers (51.6% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 9.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +500
Team temperature: 88°
Why they can win the World Series: They’ve had the best offense in baseball in September. Their rotation is replete with starting pitchers who, on any given night, can throw seven shutout frames. The back end of their bullpen features two of the nastiest relievers in the game. And they’ve got the Big Dumper. Regardless of his might this year, Cal Raleigh himself can’t carry an entire team, which is why it’s nice to have Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco and Dom Canzone and J.P. Crawford in the lineup, too. And as long as Bryan Woo remains healthy, the rotation with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Luis Castillo might be the best in the postseason. Finish off with Matt Brash in the eighth and Andres Munoz in the ninth, and you can see why FanGraphs has the Mariners with the best odds to win the World Series of any team in baseball. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Julio Rodriguez. Wait, not Raleigh? Sure, that’s the more obvious choice, but after his historic power season, it’s possible teams will pitch around Raleigh in October and force other hitters to beat them. That would open the door for J-Rod, who heated up the final two-plus months and bats after Raleigh in the lineup. Throw in some spectacular center-field defense and he could join Springer as the only center fielder to win World Series MVP honors since … well, this is pretty shocking: Springer and Reggie Jackson in 1973 are the only center fielders to win since the award began in 1955. — Schoenfield
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If they go home early it will be because … Woo’s injury is a real issue. The All-Star, who exited his start on Sept. 19 with inflammation in his right pectoral, did not make his scheduled start Thursday. Mariners general manager Justin Hollander told reporters the club did not believe the setback warranted putting Woo on the injured list and he’s responded well from treatment, but Woo will go into the postseason without having pitched in a game in over two weeks. While Seattle’s rotation is one of the deepest in baseball, Woo emerged as the ace this season with a 2.94 ERA over 30 starts. He is critical to their World Series chances. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Woo didn’t debut until 2023, the year after the Mariners made their last trip to the playoffs. By 2024, he had established himself as one of the game’s best young pitchers. And in 2025, he cemented that by making his first All-Star team, the high point of a regular season in which he won 15 games, posted a 2.94 ERA, compiled 186⅔ innings and was the most consistent starter in a Mariners rotation that didn’t find itself until recently. Woo exited his last start with pectoral tightness. The hope is he’ll be good to go for the playoffs. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Behold the historic firsts … or at least the possibility of them. Raleigh’s home run ticker rolls back to zero when the playoffs begin, and while he’ll still attract plenty of attention, that number zero looms large over the Mariners’ franchise as a whole. Seattle remains the only franchise with zero World Series appearances. Three of the Mariners’ five playoff trips have ended in the ALCS, culminating in two losses to the Yankees and one to Cleveland — possible obstacles this year as well. — Doolittle
No. 4 seed | 94-68 | AL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Red Sox in three games
Wild-card opponent: Blue Jays (52.6% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +850
Team temperature: 115°
Why they can win the World Series: They hit home runs. And, no, that’s not going to be the only reason. But it’s the most compelling. The Yankees have the best home run hitter in the game today in Aaron Judge, and he’s bound to show up one of these Octobers and unleash the full extent of his power in the postseason. The mere possibility of that makes New York dangerous. The Yankees complement it with a lineup of hitters who, even taking out Judge’s 53, combined for 221 home runs, which would rank seventh in MLB. That disincentivizes pitching around him. Between Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees have one of the game’s best starting pairs, and their relief pitching is showing good signs over the past week. Ultimately, the Yankees will go as far as the long ball takes them. If they keep hitting homers, they’ll be tough to stop, regardless of deficiencies elsewhere. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Look, Judge’s postseason history isn’t great. It’s not even good by his regular-season standards, with a career line of .205/.318/.450 and just .169/.283/.360 over his past three postseasons across 24 games. But he’s the best hitter in baseball, and he’s certainly due for a big October. It helps that, with a team that led the majors in home runs, he has more help around him than some of those other playoff lineups. — Schoenfield
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If they go home early it will be because … relievers don’t perform to their track records. The names in New York’s bullpen pop: David Bednar. Devin Williams. Luke Weaver. Camilo Doval. All four have been successful closers at the major league level; Weaver, the only one without an All-Star nod, was the closer for the Yankees’ World Series push last year. But the Yankees’ relief corps has been mercurial since adding Bednar and Doval at the trade deadline. Bednar established himself as the closer, but Doval has been sporadic. The group’s ceiling is high. But the second half proved its floor is surprisingly low. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Ben Rice carried the Yankees in their last road game of the regular season, collecting four hits, including the 10th-inning grand slam that sent them to victory in Baltimore. The 26-year-old has emerged as a crucial part of the lineup and will find himself in it often in October, whether he’s at first base or behind the plate. This lineup seems deeper than the one the Yankees fielded in last year’s World Series run, and Rice is a key reason. Said manager Aaron Boone: “I think we’re seeing the emergence of a true middle-of-the-order bat with power.” — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Well, let’s face it, you root for them because you’re already a Yankees fan, but other than that, the fun actually lies in rooting against the Yankees. But it’s hard to root against Judge, and sometimes even great players have a negative postseason narrative that follows them around. If the Yankees win, and it’s because Judge finally goes off in October, it’s just good, solid baseball history that, as a baseball fan, you won’t want to miss. — Doolittle
No. 6 seed | 87-75 | AL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Guardians in three games
ALDS opponent: Mariners (48.4% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 7.2% | ESPN BET Odds: +850
Team temperature: 57°
Why they can win the World Series: Because once upon a time this was the best team in the American League. It’s easy to forget after their historic collapse, but the Tigers entered May, June, July, August and, yes, September with the best record in the AL. Recent travails notwithstanding, this is a good baseball team, and even with a number of pitchers and infielder Colt Keith on the injured list, the Tigers have the depth — and in manager A.J. Hinch the acumen — to do damage in October. It starts with Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball the past two seasons and one hell of an assignment for the Mariners if they have to face him twice in a five-game series. Win that, get the good feeling back, hope the slugging of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson shows up, find top-level form from Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty and pray the bullpen finds some strikeout elixir. More than anything, remember what it’s like to win after spending too long not knowing the feeling. –– Passan
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If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Skubal would be the easy answer, but Stephen Strasburg is the only pitcher to win World Series MVP honors in the past 10 years and only he, Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels have won the award in the past 20 postseasons. So maybe Greene? He can run hot and cold with the bat and the strikeouts are a concern, but he can also hit some big home runs. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the starting rotation around Skubal doesn’t carry its weight. Skubal, the AL Cy Young favorite, recorded a 2.42 ERA in four September starts. And yet the Tigers’ rotation ERA for the month was still a bloated 4.84. That helps explain the team’s near-monumental collapse, though the offense and bullpen didn’t help matters. Flaherty and Mize, the team’s No. 2 and 3 starters, must give the Tigers some effective length to avoid an early exit. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, did not pitch for the Tigers in last year’s wild-card round and was left off their ALDS roster. It marked his first season back from a prolonged recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Mize never truly felt right. This year, he made his first All-Star team and, with help from a solid enough September, established himself as a key member of the postseason rotation. If the Tigers are going to go from nearly blowing a playoff spot to playing deep into October, other starters are going to have to step up beyond Skubal. It’s Mize’s turn to prove he can. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Want to see how bouncy a baseball team can be? Check out the nosediving Tigers, who squeaked into the playoffs largely because they weren’t the only AL contender in a late-season free fall. Detroit’s .291 September winning percentage doesn’t bode well. In fact, if the Tigers can rebound from here to the heights of a title, it would be an unprecedented reversal.. Only 10 eventual champs have sported a last-month winning percentage under .500. The worst was the .414 mark (12-17) of the 2006 Cardinals — who beat Detroit in that year’s World Series. — Doolittle
National League
No. 1 seed | 97-65 | NL Central champs
NLDS opponent: Cubs (56.2% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +800
Team temperature: 67°
Why they can win the World Series: They’ve been the best team in baseball over six months. In the modern game, that takes a blend of depth, player development and fidelity to an ethos that runs through the organization expecting excellence. If the deck is stacked against you, unstack it and restack it to better suit you. It’s easy to say, but how the Brewers play — disciplined and smart and fully bought-in — is an enviable brand of baseball. They’re a fun team to watch because they were better than everyone, sure. But really fun because they bully without the home run, which is something of a novel concept in today’s game. Milwaukee embraced it as it embraces any impediment. There’s always the chance that a consistently winning team never makes the World Series. But the cavalry of live arms, the nine hitters with OPS+ over 111 (and two more over 100), the NL-best 164 steals, the glovework that’s among the best in MLB by every publicly available defensive metric — it makes sense. They’re the best for a reason. So why would that change? — Passan
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If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Brice Turang is no longer just a slick-fielding second baseman with speed. He has added power this season, especially in the second half — during which he’s slugged over .500. He hits righties and lefties, does a good job of not chasing out of the zone and can pound fastballs. Oh, and he hit .364 with runners in scoring position. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … their lack of power catches up with them. Runs are often scarce in October when teams maximize deploying their best pitchers. And while manufacturing them by any means necessary is the goal, hitting home runs is an indicator of October success. The only team to finish outside the top nine in home runs for a season and reach the World Series over the past five years was the 2023 Diamondbacks. The Brewers, meanwhile, finished this season tied for 21st in home runs with Christian Yelich’s 29 leading the way. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: The hype that surrounded Jacob Misiorowski at midseason, prompting a surprising All-Star appearance despite fewer than 30 career major league innings, has since faded. In nine starts since then, his ERA is 5.45. He’s no longer good enough to crack the Brewers’ postseason rotation. Not yet, anyway. The team, though, is considering using him out of the bullpen, and that’s when things could get really interesting. Misiorowski captivated the nation because he possessed some of the sport’s most devastating stuff despite taking on the workload of a starting pitcher. Out of the bullpen, that triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would certainly play, especially in October. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: The Brewers are one of the three teams in this year’s field — along with the Mariners and Padres — hunting for their first title. But this was the best regular season in Milwaukee’s history, and for the first time since 1982, the Brewers will enter the playoffs with the best record in MLB. Intangibly, this is perhaps the most aesthetically pleasing team to watch, featuring flashy defenders, a number of high-volume base stealers and a lot of balls in play. In other words, the reasons to watch and root for the Brew Crew are many. It would be much harder to identify reasons you would not want to root for them. — Doolittle
No. 2 seed | 96-66 | NL East champs
NLDS opponent: Dodgers (49.8% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 13.1% | ESPN BET Odds: +450
Team temperature: 90°
Why they can win the World Series: Kyle Schwarber is made for October, and he will hold court, along with Bryce Harper, Cristopher Sanchez, Jhoan Duran and the rest of the cavalcade, in front of the most raucous crowd in baseball at Citizens Bank Park. Those are the featured players, but the Phillies’ run could hinge on their four starters’ capacity to go deep into games. The bullpen is top-heavy, and the top is good, but if they aren’t scared off by the third time through the order like so many others, the Phillies can ride their rotation far. Schwarber and Harper have combined for 38 home runs in 510 career postseason plate appearances and are two of the best playoff performers of their generation. If the Phillies can hit some timely home runs — eight others on the roster reached double-digit homers — their case, already perhaps the most compelling in baseball, gets that much stronger. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: We have two logical choices here: Schwarber and Harper. Both have been outstanding in the playoffs. Schwarber has a .906 OPS and 21 home runs in 69 games, and Harper has a 1.016 OPS and 17 home runs in 53 games. Schwarber, of course, had a monster regular season. Let’s go with Harper, though. He knows how to lock in for October better than any other active hitter, and with time possibly running out on this aging Phillies team, it might be now or never for Harper to win a World Series. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … Trea Turner doesn’t quickly find his rhythm. Turner was placed on the injured list because of a Grade 1 hamstring strain Sept. 8. He was activated Friday and played in Sunday’s season finale. The Phillies’ offense hummed without Turner behind Schwarber’s continued dominance of opposing pitchers, but October is a different beast, and Turner is an elite talent who could change Philadelphia’s playoff fortunes. The shortstop won the NL batting title, led the league with 179 hits and stole 36 bases. A healthy Turner adds another dimension. — Castillo
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Ready for his October close-up: Jhoan Duran got a taste of postseason baseball with the Twins in 2023, but he has never experienced it quite like at “The Bank,” with his walkout song blaring through what is widely considered the loudest, most boisterous ballpark this time of year. The Phillies’ front office beat out a bevy of suitors for Duran at the trade deadline, and he has been everything the team could have imagined, locking down the back end of a leaky bullpen and looking very much like the final player of a title quest. Soon, the ninth inning will come, and “El Incomprendido” will play. Philly will be ready. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: Tired of the bullpen parade? The Phillies are your team. Philadelphia far and away paced the majors in innings from starters. It wasn’t just volume either, as Philly logged baseball’s third-best rotation ERA (3.57). And it wasn’t because the Phillies preached pitch to contact: Philadelphia led all of baseball in strikeout rate from starting pitchers, and strikeout-minus-walks percentage. Sure, the loss of Zack Wheeler is a bummer, but the Sanchez-led rotation remains the foundation of the Phillies and their greatest hopes to traverse the bullpen-heavy staffs of the rest of the bracket en route to the World Series. — Doolittle
No. 3 seed | 93-69 | NL West champs
Wild-card result: Defeated Reds in two games
NLDS opponent: Phillies (50.2 chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 16.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +425
Team temperature: 113°
Why they can win the World Series: They did it last year and pretty much everyone who contributed to that team is back — plus a few more. This time, they’ve got to get through the wild-card series, which is no fun, but their starting pitching depth is truly daunting. No matter how they deploy Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, any permutation works. The bullpen is … a work in progress. But if you’re seeking a functional relief corps on the fly, there are worse places to start than with a group of 10 who have thrown out of the bullpen this month, seven at 95-plus (including Roki Sasaki), with Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw likewise at the ready. As for the hitters: Ohtani will win his second straight NL MVP, Mookie Betts is right again, Freddie Freeman in October is automatic and even if Will Smith is out, what the Dodgers manage better than anyone is depth, and despite the disappointment of the regular season, there exists this truth: If every team plays its best, the Dodgers are better than all of them. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: How about Freeman in a repeat performance? Hey, Corey Seager won in 2020 and 2023 (for two different teams), although no player has won MVP in back-to-back World Series. Freeman has played 11 World Series games — and reached via a hit in all 11 with an OPS of 1.171. He never lets the moment get too big, and another big World Series would cement his status as one of the all-time great clutch postseason performers. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because … the bullpen sinks this behemoth. Six different Dodgers relievers finished September with an ERA north of 5.00. Their team bullpen ERA for the month that ranked 26th in baseball. Only three teams blew more saves. Tanner Scott’s first season in Los Angeles was a colossal disappointment. Kirby Yates, their other major free agent bullpen addition, landed on the injured list again during the final week of the regular season. Brock Stewart, the only reliever acquired at the trade deadline, pitched in four games before going on the IL. As a result, the Dodgers will supplement the bullpen with starters; Kershaw, Sasaki and Sheehan all figure to play significant relief roles in October. — Castillo
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Ready for his October close-up: Baseball fans were delighted to see Ohtani grace the postseason stage last October, but that was only half of him. This year, Ohtani will be fully unlocked. He’ll pitch — in Game 1 of the division series against the Phillies — and he’ll hit, with few, if any, limitations. The Dodgers were very careful in how they handled Ohtani’s pitching return, all with the thought of making sure he was at his best going into October. That goal was accomplished. Ohtani has once again proven he can be as dominant on the mound as he is in the batter’s box. Now, he’ll show it when it really counts. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: You like dynasties? Another Dodgers title would further cement L.A.’s dominance over the rest of baseball. The Dodgers looked far more vulnerable than predicted during the season, and their struggles continued into the latter stages of the regular season. But Ohtani will unleash his two-way act in the playoffs for the first time, Betts has turned around his down season, and everyone wants to send Kershaw into retirement on a high note. Dynasties are dynasties because they win even when their plans haven’t unfolded exactly as they foresaw. — Doolittle
No. 4 seed | 92-70 | NL wild card
Wild-card result: Defeated Padres in three games
NLDS opponent: Brewers (43.8% chance of advancing)
Doolittle’s WS odds: 11.9% | ESPN BET Odds: +800
Team temperature: 87°
Why they can win the World Series: They’re a magnificent defensive team, they’ve got Kyle Tucker back to charge an offense that has been a bottom-quarter run-scoring team in the second half, and Daniel Palencia has also returned with his velocity. Maybe their flashes of excellence when they were healthy get rekindled. The Cubs might not be as talented as the NL elite, but their lineup is filled with hitters willing to take walks and not striking out exorbitantly. That kind of approach — and home run hitting — win in October, and the Cubs have both. Keep the steady performances from Andrew Kittredge and Brad Keller to lengthen the bullpen and hope for a mid-postseason return by Cade Horton, who would immediately make their chances that much better. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Ian Happ. Tucker has battled multiple injuries in the second half, including a calf injury that sidelined him most of September. Pete Crow-Armstrong has dropped off significantly in the second half. Seiya Suzuki has likewise slumped. Happ is the overlooked member of the Cubs’ lineup, but he’s a switch-hitter with power, he gets on base, controls his strikeouts reasonably well, has hit well in the second half and usually bats second or third, giving him plenty of RBI and run-scoring opportunities. — Schoenfield
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If they go home early it will be because … the late injuries pushed them off track. The Cubs’ best every-day player (Tucker), top starting pitcher (Horton) and closer (Palencia) dealt with injuries down the stretch. Though Tucker (calf) and Palencia (shoulder) returned from the injured list during the regular season’s final week, Horton was pulled from his start last Tuesday because of back tightnesss and placed on the injured list Saturday because of a rib fracture, the team announced. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Here’s one thing we know about the Cubs going into these playoffs: they’re going to have to score runs, especially with Horton out for at least the first round. Kyle Tucker missed most of September and Pete Crow-Armstrong had the majors’ lowest OPS among qualified hitters after the start of August, which only heightens the pressure on someone like Michael Busch. There’s plenty of reason for hope. The Cubs’ offense hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders lately, but Busch, 27, has been at his best over these last couple weeks and led the team with 34 home runs this season. He’ll be at the top of the lineup against righties and his production will be critical. — Gonzalez
Why you should root for them: An eight-year title drought is small potatoes in Chicago, but 2016 is starting to feel like a long time ago. This version of the Cubs, led by first-title-seeker Craig Counsell, has a chance to carve out its place in the hearts of North Side fans with a deep run this October. When the Cubs have been at their best, they’ve featured an electric offense led by Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and current fan favorite (P-C-A! P-C-A!) Pete Crow-Armstrong. With Tucker headed for free agency, this might be the Cubs’ best shot at matching their 2016 heights with this group. — Doolittle
