Predicts

In case you somehow missed it, Battlefield 6 is taking the world by storm right now. The upcoming EA shooter is currently on its second early beta, having only last week brought in concurrent player counts of over 400k on Steam alone.

As such, Battlefield 6 is currently pointing at the stands bat in hand, lining up an absolutely scorcher of a launch in October. Early indications of just how successful Battlefield 6 will be are hard to parse, but video game analytics company Alinea Analytics stated that the game had 605k Steam pre-orders as of 12th August, based on its research.

That’s certainly an eye-watering number, so to learn about Battlefield 6’s momentum, as well as its impact on the wider FPS space and more, Eurogamer sat down with a chat with Rhys Elliott from Alinea Analytics to dive into Battlefield 6’s initial success, and whether the game can stick the landing.

Check out Eurogamer’s Battlefield 6 multiplayer 6 impressions.Watch on YouTube

Eurogamer: How did you reach the 600k Steam pre-order figure, and where does that stand against the performance of prior Battlefield games?

Rhys Elliot: “So I can’t give specifics on our methodology, but Steam scrapers, a panel of gamers that take info from. Current figures are at 800k copies through pre-order, revenues of $40m. Far above previous installments and other shooters.

“This is a welcome turnaround for the franchise. I’ll not say it’s been on shaky ground as prior games have sold well, but Battlefield 2042 and Battlefield 5 have been a bit of a letdown for the community, a look at critical reception or places like Reddit show its been a little bit of a fall from grace for Battlefield 3,4, Bad company etc.

“It’s an important time too as EA Sports FC – formerly FIFA – which still is EA’s cash cow has a bit of a shaky revenue long tail this year. So there’s a lot riding on Battlefield this year as there’s some uncertainty around FC this time around.”

Eurogamer: Where would you expect to see that pre-order number hit?

Elliot: “I think it’ll pass a million in pre-sales. It depends on the marketing campaign up until launch, we’ve still got two months until its release which is a long time. The second beta is ongoing, and the jury is still out ahead of the weekend which are the biggest days by-engagement on Steam. But if we look at the Steam concurrents on Thursday the 7th August, that was like 335k concurrent on Steam. Yesterday, it was 407k which is an improvement.

“So it depends on whether EA can continue that marketing momentum heading into September. There’s a lot going on in September on the shooter front, you’ve got Borderlands 4 coming out, a lot of other games… It’s quite quiet now in terms of releases, so there’s a lot of room for Battlefield to breathe. As we head into the Autumn period there’ll be a lot more going on, but as of right now it’s on track to do extremely well: the best Battlefield has ever done.”

Battlefield 6 is certainly in the zeitgeist right now, but can it stay in the spotlight? | Image credit: EA

Eurogamer: Reports earlier this year stated that there’s an internal goal for 100m lifetime players, a large part of that assumedly tied to the free battle royale mode. Do you think the game could hit that goal?

Elliot: “I think it’s completely unrealistic, to be candid. These are leaks right, they’re unconfirmed. But those figures are around Fortnite territory. Battlefield 6 is a paid game, and yes there is a free battle royale mode, so maybe that’s the ceiling that they are aiming for. But I don’t think that will happen. Battlefield is Battlefield. It’s not niche, but it doesn’t have that mass appeal that Fortnite or Call of Duty. 100m is a wild audience number.”

Eurogamer: Former Blizzard head Mike Ybarra said that Battlefield will stomp Call of Duty this year. Do you think he’s right?

Elliot: It’s not going to. Mike Ybarra has had some choice takes on Twitter recently, I think he’s been saying things like the Switch 2 not having a good value proposition, that gamers should tip publishers during economic crises. I think a lot of news outlets will run with Mike’s opinions because of what he used to do on Blizzard, but he’s just a dude, right? He’s just a dude on Twitter.

“I think it’s important not to conflate Battlefield’s pre-launch success – even if it will be a big success – with being a ‘CoD Killer’. Yes, Battlefield 6 is making all the right moves with these massive maps, a return to the core classes, the destruction. It is also borrowing a lot of things from CoD. Call of Duty is in a bit of a creative lul and an identity crisis, with Nikki Minaj shooting Beavis and Butthead while Snoop Dogg is twerking in the background. It’s weird! But it’s still a cultural juggernaut, it has a massive casual audience who buy it on autopilot every year. They complain, but they still buy it, and those habits run deep.

You’ve got to feel somewhat bad for Mrs Minaj, who has become the face of Call of Duty’s identity problem. | Image credit: Activision

“Battlefield 6 is undoubtedly winning over the hardcore FPS crowd, but CoD has that market momentum, the yearly launches, Warzone is there as that big pool for cross pollination marketing and a funnel into Black Ops. CoD has the seasonal content treadmill it’s been running for years and years, with streamer partnerships. Whether Battlefield can keep up with that is unclear.

“We’ve always heard over the years: ‘this Battlefield is going to beat CoD’. We heard it with 2042, it never happens. Even with Battlefield 1, which was a return to form for many, while CoD had Infinite Warfare. I liked that personally, it got panned by a lot of people. Even then, CoD completely wrecked Battlefield, and that’s because of the brand inertia.

“This could – and that’s a big could – be a turning point in which a few years down the line the tides could shift, but saying that Battlefield is going to boot stomp CoD in terms of sales and mind share is a bit of a wild thing to say.”

Eurogamer: EA has held back on increasing the prices of their games, and Battlefield 6 is still selling at the $70 price point. How important has this stance been for the pre-order numbers we’re seeing, and how damaging could an $80 base price point have been?

The Outer Worlds 2 recently went back to the $70 price point, in a bold u-turn by Microsoft. | Image credit: Obsidian

Elliot: “I think the shock of the extra $10 for a lot of gamers will be a bit too much. But with Battlefield and a lot of games, you’ve got the Ultimate Edition or Collectors Edition which costs $90 or $120. The super fans who can afford it usually do due to early access and other fans, and most usually do in the pre-order phases.

“Charging that extra $10 would close the door on some gamers, and as this is a year when it wants to make a big comeback, throwing the needle over to that sticker shock would have been a bad idea. I think in general, the jump from 70 to 80 is a lot, you’re closer to $100 than $50 at that point, and psychologically that’s a big step for consumers. Especially right now.

“People will pay it for GTA, and super fans will pay it for any game they’re interested in so publishers can have it both ways as long as they keep that lower floor price. Eventually, the RRP (recommended retail price) will go up for games – that’s inevitable. But for now, $70 is the sweet spot with some variable pricing for big hitters like the next Zelda or GTA. Though even GTA is a maybe, based on Zelnicks’ comments.”

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