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Prediction

Morning Minute: CME & Fanduel Bring Prediction Markets to the Masses

by admin August 21, 2025

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

Crypto majors mixed, ETH and SOL lead; BTC back to $113k
BNB hits fresh ATH at $880 overnight before retracing
Kanye tweets out YZY coin, briefly runs to $3B before falling
CME announces partnership with Fanduel to launch events contracts
Heaven notches first $1M revenue day, burns another $1M of its LIGHT token

🎲 CME + FanDuel Bring Event Contracts to the Masses

Wall Street is meeting Main Street in the betting arena.

And the prediction market boom is about to begin…

📌 What Happened

The CME Group and FanDuel are teaming up to launch a new event contracts platform, making it easier for everyday users to bet on markets like the S&P 500, oil, gold, and even crypto.

The two will create a joint venture that will offer fully funded, event-based contracts as a part of the initiative.

These simple yes/no markets will let FanDuel’s millions of customers trade on major benchmarks and economic indicators for as little as $1.

Expected to go live later this year (pending CFTC review), the platform will cover:

Indices: S&P 500, Nasdaq-100
Commodities: oil, gas, gold
Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more
Macro data: GDP, CPI, and other key releases

The contracts will run through a new non-clearing futures commission merchant (FCM) jointly operated by CME and FanDuel, and listed on CME’s regulated exchanges.

🗣️ What They’re Saying

Terry Duffy, CME Group CEO: “Together, our event-based products will appeal to the growing public interest in markets, and we will provide education to attract a new generation of potential traders not active in derivatives today.”
Amy Howe, FanDuel CEO: “Partnering with CME Group will unlock our ability to bring even more new and engaging products to FanDuel’s fast-growing customer base… combining innovation with best-in-class regulatory compliance and consumer protections.”

CME & FanDuel partnering on event contracts…

I’m serious.

Basically you can wager as little as $1 on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, oil, gas, gold, crypto, & even GDP and CPI.

Yes, you’ll be able to place these bets via FanDuel.

Full gamification of markets.

What a time to be alive. pic.twitter.com/BMUgjgqWw4

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) August 20, 2025

🧠 Why It Matters

This is a huge moment for prediction markets and retail access:

Mainstream on-ramp: Millions of FanDuel bettors will soon have a direct line into regulated financial products, essentially turning prediction rading into a mass-market consumer activity
Legitimacy & compliance: With CME as the partner, these contracts have instant credibility and regulatory cover, something platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have struggled with
Bridging speculation & investing: By blending sports betting UX with financial markets, CME and FanDuel are creating a product that sits squarely between gambling and trading
Crypto crossover: Including Bitcoin and Ethereum in the initial product set cements crypto’s role as a tradable benchmark alongside equities, commodities, and macro data

Assuming this is approved, this could be the biggest step yet toward mass adoption of event-based markets in the U.S. seen to date.

There were questions (and rightfully so) if prediction markets would make it post-2024 election.

Volumes boomed into the most hotly debated election ever, but then (to the surprise of many), volumes sustained.

Prediction markets have sustained well post-election (data from https://dune.com/fergmolina/polymarket-markets-data)[/caption]

Thanks to new styles of pop culture markets, leaning more into news and geopolitics and of course sports betting markets, prediction markets have kept volumes at ~50%+ levels of peak 2024.

That’s a huge win.

And the more progress made in 2025-2026 will lead for an even bigger 2028 election cycle.

Let the prediction market boom begin…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

Crypto majors were mostly green on the day; BTC even at $113,300, ETH +3% at $4,285, XRP +1% at $2.90, SOL +3% at $184
OKB (+60%), MORPHO (+12%) and LINK (+6%) led top movers
BNB briefly broke to a new ATH of $880 last night
OKB popped another 60% to $206 after its massive token burn
A judge unfroze $57.6M in funds tied to the Libra meme coin case (tied to Argentina President Javier Milei) after signs of compliance
Xapo sees a $200B Bitcoin inflow coming from the wealth transfer from boomers to their children over the coming decade
Ark Invest backed Bullish and Robinhood, with Cathie Wood’s firm buying $21.2M of Bullish and $16.2M of Robinhood shares in their market debuts
The Winklevoss twins funded a pro-Trump crypto PAC to the tune of $21M (188 BTC as it looks to launch the Digital Freedom Fund aimed at blocking CBDCs and supporting crypto-friendly policy
The New York lawmaker’s push for 0.2% crypto tax will also include stablecoin transfers

In Corporate Treasuries

Empery Digital holds $450M in BTC but its market cap sits at just $340M, trading well below mNAV
Windtree Therapeutics, a BNB treasury company, has been removed from Nasdaq for listing compliance issues

In Memes

Memecoin leaders are red on the day; DOGE -3%, Shiba -3%, PEPE -4%, PENGU -8%, BONK -4%, TRUMP -3%, SPX -3%, and FARTCOIN -4%
Kanye West tweeted out a memecoin YZY which briefly ran to $3B FDV before falling back to $1B
Heaven reached $1M in daily revenue on Wednesday (75% of Pump’s revenue) while also unlocking a new “golden twap” to account for some missed revenue that hadn’t gone to LIGHT buybacks

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🤖 AI x Crypto

Section dedicated to headlines in the AI sector of crypto:

Overall market cap down 2% to $12.2B, leaders were mixed
FARTCOIN (+1%), VIRTUAL (+1%), TIBBIR (-3%), ai16z (-1%) & VVV (-17%)
fxn (+24%), Simmi (+22%) and IRIS (+15%) led top movers

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

ETH NFT leaders were mostly green; Punks -2% at 46.5 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 12.6, BAYC +2% at 11.6 ETH
Moonbirds (+15%) and Mooncats (+17%) were notable top movers
Bitcoin NFTs were mostly red or even; Bitcoin Puppets +6%
Abstract NFTs were mixed, led by BUUMEE (+20%)

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August 21, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Crash to $100? Harvard Professor Rogoff Revisits 2018 BTC Price Prediction

by admin August 21, 2025

In 2018, Kenneth S Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, predicted bitcoin

was more likely to be worth $100 than $100,000 in a decade.

In reality, bitcoin’s price rose above $100,000 this year, a 10-fold increase from March 2018’s sub-$10,000 level when Rogoff predicted the crash.

On Tuesday, with bitcoin hovering around $113,000, Rogoff reflected on how he had missed the mark, saying he had been “far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses regarding sensible cryptocurrency regulation.”

In a post on X, Harvard economist Ken Rogoff expressed said he’d expected policymakers to adopt a firm stance to curb the use of cryptocurrencies in tax evasion and illegal activities. He was, indirectly, criticizing the regulatory environment as being less than prudent and allowing cryptocurrencies like BTC to flourish in ways he did not anticipate.

Rogoff underestimated how bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transaction medium of choice in the 20 trillion-dollar global underground economy.

“This demand puts a floor on its price, as I discuss at length in my new book Our Dollar, Your Problem,” Rogoff said.

He also flagged a “blatant conflict of interest,” with regulators “holding hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence.”

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August 21, 2025 0 comments

GameFi Guides

CEO of Largest US Crypto Exchange Stuns with $1 Million Bitcoin Price Prediction

by admin August 21, 2025

Main catalysts
Other $1 million predictions

Brian Armstrong, chief executive officer at American cryptocurrency exchange behemoth Coinbase, has predicted that the price of Bitcoin could potentially reach $1 million.

Armstrong sees the largest cryptocurrency achieving this milestone by 2030.

Main catalysts

“We are starting to see regulatory clarity emerge in the US, which I think is a bellwether for the rest of the G20,” he said.

The GENIUS Act, which establishes a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, was signed into law earlier this summer in the U.S.

Armstrong is hopeful that key market structure legislation will also be passed this year, which he believes would be a significant milestone.

He has emphasized that the lack of regulatory clarity is holding back institutions from allocating a bigger portion of their funds to Bitcoin.

The billionaire also recalled that it would be “crazy” for someone to suggest a few years ago that the U.S. would hold Bitcoin as part of its official strategic reserve. However, this is the reality now.

As reported by U.Today, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently stated that the U.S. would not be buying more Bitcoin on top of the forfeited coins, but he then backtracked on this statement within the same day.

Armstrong has added that Coinbase provides services to a total of 240 government entities. “Govermemts are now getting more and more engaged in this,” he stressed.

The risk of governments shutting down Bitcoin has been “severely diminished,” Armstrong said.

Other $1 million predictions

Armstrong is not the only crypto luminary who has predicted that Bitcoin could potentially surpass the much-coveted $1 million milestone.

In May, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao forecasted that the flagship coin could reach seven figures during the current cycle.

As reported by U.Today, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz also sees Bitcoin hitting $1 million, potentially surpassing the market cap of gold, if the U.S. keeps printing money.

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August 21, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction for August 20

by admin August 20, 2025

The market is neither bearish nor bullish in the middle of the week, according to CoinStats.

Top coins by CoinStats

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 0.38% over the last 24 hours.

Image by TradingView

On the hourly chart, the rate of BTC is looking bullish after a resistance breakout. If the daily bar closes above $114,157, growth may continue to the $115,000 mark tomorrow.

Image by TradingView

On the longer time frame, the price of the main crypto is rising after yesterday’s bearish bar’s closure. However, even if the candle closes bullish, the energy might not be enough for a further upward move.

Bitcoin’s Year-End Destination: SkyBridge Founder Stands By Bold Prediction, Here’s The Target

by admin August 20, 2025

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin seems to have shifted into a bearish mood as it retests the $113,000 price level, raising questions about a potential bear market phase. However, Anthony Scaramucci remains confident that BTC will recover from the ongoing downtrend and surge to a new high of $180,000 and beyond in 2025.

Scaramucci Keeps $200,000 Bitcoin Year-End Target Alive

Despite the robust downward movement in price, many analysts are still optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential in the short term, predicting a move to new all-time highs. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and a long-time Bitcoin advocate, has reignited bullish hopes as he recalled his end-of-year BTC prediction.

During an interview on CBNC posted by Altcoin Daily on the X platform, Anthony Scaramucci maintains that BTC is on track to reach between $180,000 and $200,000 by year-end. The founder’s prediction is backed by tightening supply dynamics, boosting institutional adoption, and growing global recognition of Bitcoin as a hedge asset.

According to Scamaracci, Bitcoin remains bullish in any scenario, expressing his hopes that United States President Donald Trump will pick the mama bear fed. His belief reflects an increasing number of well-known investors who think that Bitcoin’s next leg higher could be much more explosive than prior cycles.

When asked about the base and most bullish case for BTC, Scaramucci started by highlighting the current state of the market. “I think what is happening now is lots of consolidation and institutional adoption,” he stated.

Years ago, BTC’s price action was mostly driven by retail adoption and CEOs working in the layer 1 blockchain space. However, this trend has started to shift towards the institutional level over time, as large corporations accumulate the crypto king at a substantial rate.

A Transition Of BTC Ownership Ongoing In The Market

The founder has pointed to the robust performance of BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF, the IBIT, which has attracted a wide range of retail and institutional investors. While institutional adoption is increasing, Bitcoin whales continue to offload their holdings.

Scaramucci considers this pattern a crucial development, declaring it a shift in ownership. “I just think it is a function of buying in only 450 Bitcoin being made by the network per day,” he added. During this shift in ownership, the founder noted that demand for the flagship asset has surpassed issued supply or the overall available supply of BTC in the market.

Considering these developments, the founder is confident that BTC still has room for more growth, potentially reaching his bullish target between $180,000 and $200,000 this year. This bold prediction suggests the current pullback is likely a healthy correction before another explosive move.

Even though many other companies and analysts foresee a much higher target for Bitcoin by this year’s end, Scaramucci remains firm with his prediction, calling it a cautious price target.

BTC trading at $113,707 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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August 20, 2025 0 comments

GameFi Guides

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction for August 18

by admin August 19, 2025

The crypto market has changed to red at the beginning of the week, according to CoinStats.

Top coins by CoinStats

BTC/USD

The rate of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by 2.29% since yesterday.

Image by TradingView

On the hourly chart, the price of BTC is near the local support of $114,955. If a bounce back does not occur and the daily bar closes around that mark or below it, one can expect an ongoing downward move to the $114,000 zone.

Image by TradingView

On the longer time frame, there are no reversal signals yet. If the bar closes around the current prices and with no long wick, the decline may continue to the support of $112,000 by the end of the week.

Image by TradingView

From the midterm point of view, the price of the main crypto is declining after the previous bearish bar’s closure.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: In Precarious Position

by admin August 18, 2025

This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Bitcoin

remains susceptible to further downside, having lost over 7% since hitting record highs above $124,000 on Thursday.

Bullish momentum fading

The weekly chart (candlestick format) shows that BTC’s ongoing decline follows repeated bull failure to secure a foothold above $122,056, the Fibonacci golden ratio. It also marked the inability to keep gains above the significant long-term resistance trendline that connects the bull market highs of 2017 and 2021.

BTC’s weekly chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Additionally, the weekly stochastic oscillator has rolled over from the overbought zone above 80, signaling a potential correction ahead.

Daily chart

On the daily chart, BTC’s latest candle has broken below the bullish trendline extending from April lows, following Friday’s bearish outside-day candle that signaled a potential shift toward seller dominance.

BTC’s daily chart. (TradingView)

Together, these technical signals indicate an increasing downside risk for BTC in the near term, with a potential retest of $11,982, the point from which the market turned higher on Aug. 3. A violation of this level would shift focus tothe 200-day simple moving average at around $100,000.

A potential reversal higher to above $118,600 (Sunday’s high) during the day ahead would weaken the bear case.

Resistance: $120,000, $122,056, $124,429.
Support: $111,982, $105,295 (the 31.8% Fib retracement of April-August rally), $100,000.

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August 18, 2025 0 comments

GameFi Guides

Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction for August 17

by admin August 17, 2025

Bulls are trying to seize the initiative at the end of the week, according to CoinMarketCap.

Top coins by CoinMarketCap

ETH/USD

The rate of Ethereum (ETH) has risen by 2.24% since yesterday. Over the last week, the price has risen by 8%.

Image by TradingView

On the hourly chart, the price of ETH might have set a local resistance of $4,576. If the daily bar closes far from that level, one can expect a correction to the $4,400 zone.

Image by TradingView

On the bigger time frame, the rate of the main altcoin is in the middle of the channel between the support of $4,093 and the resistance of $4,783.