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Powells

Top Binance Traders Cut XRP Longs Ahead of Powell’s Speech

by admin August 21, 2025

According to Binance data, top XRP accounts are holding fewer longs ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance, trimming exposure before one of the biggest macro events of the summer.

On Aug. 20, long accounts made up 78.12% of top margin users, with shorts at 21.88%, giving a ratio of 3.57. As of Aug. 21, the number of longs dropped to 74.15%, while shorts increased to 25.85%, bringing the ratio down to 2.87.

What are options?

Markets are still pricing a pretty good chance — more than 80% — of a rate cut in September, but that could change if Powell does not support it. His focus on labor market weakness could boost risk assets, but if inflation dominates the message, it could drag them down.

Finally, if he sticks to “data dependent” language, the reaction could stay relatively contained.

Volatility Meltdown Everywhere as Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Looms

by admin August 17, 2025

A pervasive calm has taken hold of asset classes as traders look forward to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for Aug. 21-23.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex’s BVIV and Deribit’s DVOL index, has declined sharply in recent months, hovering near two-year lows of around 36% last week, according to TradingView data.

Similarly, the CME Gold Volatility Index (GVZ), which estimates the expected 30-day volatility of returns for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), has more than halved over the past four months, dropping to 15.22%—its lowest level since January.

The MOVE index, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility of Treasury notes, has also declined in recent months, reaching a 3.5-year low of 76%.

Meanwhile, the VIX, widely regarded as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” fell below 14% last week, down substantially from its early April highs near 45%. A similar vol compression is seen in FX majors such as the EUR/USD.

Rates are ‘still high’

The pronounced slide in volatility across major assets comes as central banks, particularly the Fed, are expected to deliver rate cuts from restrictive territory, rather than amid a crisis.

“Most major economies are not easing from ultra-low or emergency levels like we saw after the financial crisis or during COVID. They’re cutting from restrictive territory, meaning rates are still high enough to slow growth, and in many cases, real rates, adjusted for inflation, are still positive. That’s a big shift from the last easing cycles, and it changes how the next phase plays out,” pseudonymous observer Endgame Macro noted on X, explaining the bull run in all assets, including cryptocurrencies and stock markets.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, resuming the easing cycle after an eight-month pause. Investment banking giant JPMorgan expects the benchmark borrowing cost to drop to 3.25%-3.5% by the end of the first quarter of 2026, a 100-basis-point decrease from the current 4.25%.

Per some observers, Powell could lay the groundwork for fresh easing during this Jackson Hole speech.

“The path to rate cuts may be uneven, as we have seen over the last two years, where markets have been eager for rate cuts and sometimes disappointed that the Fed has not delivered them. But we believe the direction of travel for rates is likely to remain lower,” Angelo Kourkafas, a senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones, said in a blog post on Friday.

“With inflation treading water and labour-market strains becoming more pronounced, the balance of risks may soon tip toward action. Chair Powell’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole could validate the now-high expectations that, after a seven-month pause, rate cuts will resume in September,” Jones added.

In other words, the decline in volatility across asset classes likely reflects expectations for easy monetary policy and economic stability.

Markets too complacent?

However, contrarians may view it as a sign that markets are too complacent, as President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs threaten to weigh on economic growth, and the latest data points to sticky inflation.

Just take a look at the price levels for most assets, including BTC and gold: They are all at record highs.

Prosper Trading Academy’s Scott Bauer argued last week during an interview with Schwab Network that volatility is too low following the recent round of economic data, with more uncertainty on the horizon.

The argument for market complacency gains credence when viewed against the backdrop of bond markets, where corporate bond spreads hit their lowest since 2007. That prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs to warn clients against complacency and take hedges.

“There are enough sources of downside risks to warrant keeping some hedges on in portfolios,” Goldman strategists led by Lotfi Karoui wrote in a note dated July 31, according to Bloomberg.

“Growth could surprise further to the downside,” dis-inflationary pressures could fade or renewed concerns over Fed independence may fuel a sharp selloff in long-dated yields.

In any case, volatility is mean-reverting, meaning periods of low volatility typically set the stage for a return to more turbulent conditions.

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August 17, 2025 0 comments

NFT Gaming

Trump slams Powell’s rate stance as BTC price flatlines

by admin June 19, 2025

President Trump slams Fed Chair Jerome Powell for refusing to cut interest rates, leaving America’s monetary policy unchanged again. As a result, Bitcoin has seen minimal price movement ever since.

In a recent post shared to Trump Media & Technology Group-owned social media platform Truth Social, President Donald Trump did not hold back from harshly criticizing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s unwavering stance towards interest rates.

“Too Late—Powell is the WORST. A real dummy, who’s costing America $Billions!” wrote Trump in his post.

Not only that, he also included a link to an article published on the National Mortgage News site, which quoted an analysis from Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s regulator who called for the Federal Reserve Chairman to quit if he continues to maintain the current interest rate.

Although the decision to keep the interest rates steady at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% range, it has left Bitcoin (BTC) at a standstill. Ever since it was announced that the Fed unanimously voted to maintain its current policy in June, Bitcoin has been stuck around the $104,000 floating around the mark, seeing weak gains of only 0.28% to as low as 0.1%.

It appears that the Fed’s cautionary stance has triggered a pause in Bitcoin’s previous rally, much to the dismay of traders and the President of the U.S. himself. In the past two weeks, the largest cryptocurrency has seen a slight increase of 0.3%.

Price chart for Bitcoin after Jerome Powell’s interest rate speech, June 19, 2025 | Source: crypto.news

Why has Jerome Powell refused to cut interest rates?

On June 18, the Federal Reserve came to a unanimous decision to maintain a “wait-and-see” approach to the current monetary stance in June.

According to a CNBC report, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference that policymakers are “well positioned to wait” before moving further on rates. He also said that the market is beginning to see the effects of Trump’s tariffs on inflation.

“We have to learn more about tariffs. I don’t know what the right way for us to react will be,” said Jerome Powell, as quoted by CNN Business from the press conference.

“I think it’s hard to know with any confidence how we should react until we see the size of the effects,” he continued.

Maintaining interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% is considered restrictive by many, considering that it led to a fall in investor confidence. Moreover, Bloomberg reported that the Fed has also revised its economic growth forecast, showing a decline for 2025. Lower GDP projections could suggest less consumer spending, weaker investment, or global headwinds.

The inflation forecast for 2025 has been raised to 3%, which is above the Fed’s 2% target. This signals that inflationary pressures may be more persistent than previously expected.

After the Fed refused to cut interest rates and foreshadowed a bleaker economic outlook, the U.S. stocks took a dive.

According to a report by Reuters, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.10% compared to the previous day. Meanwhile the S&P saw a decline of 0.03%. In contrast to the two exchanges, the Nasdaq Composite actually rose by 0.13%.

However, overall stock prices were generally higher before the Fed’s announcement.

On the crypto side of the market, the overall crypto market cap fell by 2.3% in the past 24 hours. The current crypto market cap stands at $3.3 trillion, after major tokens like Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) saw declines ranging from 1.6% to 0.2%.

Even the overall crypto trading volume suffered a 15% fall following the Fed announcement, from an initial $120 billion to $101 billion on June 19.

Additionally, the CBS reported that the central bank expects inflation to worsen in the coming months. It also foresaw two interest rate cuts by the end of this year. This prediction is the same as its previous projection back in March.

“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” said Jerome Powell.

The Fed’s decision goes against increasing pressures from the White House to lower interest rated by two points. Just hours before the announcement, Trump said that “stupid” Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely keep the rates at their current levels. The remarks were part of his ongoing attacks on the Fed.

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June 19, 2025 0 comments