The crypto market is down today, signaling risk aversion ahead of the U.S. core PCE inflation data release, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s path on interest-rate cuts.
The CoinDesk 20 Index, a measure of the broad market, has dropped 3.6% in the past 24 hours, with all but one member lower over that period.
According to analysts at Bitunix , a hotter-than-expected figure could prompt the Fed to adopt a one-and-done stance following the expected rate cut at the September meeting.
“For BTC, watch whether $114.5K flips into support, or if a retest of $107.6K support confirms market resilience,” the exchange told CoinDesk in an email.
Derivatives Positioning
- Open interest (OI) in futures tied to the top 20 coins, excluding SOL, has decreased in the past 24 hours, indicating broad-based capital outflows.
- SOL’s open interest, however, hit a record high 63.84 million, alongside a rally in the token’s price to $217, a level last seen in February.
- The eight-hour funding rates for ether, tron and BNB flipped slightly negative, indicating a bias for bearish bets on a drop in prices. Funding rates for other major tokens were steady at around zero, indicating neutral sentiment.
- OI in the CME bitcoin futures slipped to 135.72K BTC, the lowest since April, while ether OI remained elevated at record highs near 2.10 million ETH. The divergence suggests a continued preference among investors for ETH over BTC.
- On Deribit, downside bias in BTC options has strengthened across all tenors, with puts trading at a five volatility premium to calls at the front end. ETH options display similar dynamics, marking a shift from bullish positioning early this week.
- On Paradigm, block flows featured call selling and put rolling strategies in BTC and ETH. Market maker Wintermute pointed to demand for call spreads in the December expiry BTC options.
Token Talk
- Solana (SOL) posted a 44% drop in second-quarter application revenue, sliding to to $576.4 million from $1 billion in the first quarter even as its DeFi sector expanded, according to Messari.
- The downturn reflects weaker profitability across key decentralized apps. Pump.fun (PUMP) still led with $156.9 million, but was still down 44% as memecoin frenzy cooled.
- Axiom was the outlier, surging 641% to $126.6 million, showing how fast protocol-specific growth can offset broader ecosystem weakness. Jupiter earned $66.4 million (–16%), while Phantom and Photon were hit hardest with declines of 65% and 72%, respectively.
- Despite revenue losses, DeFi TVL on Solana climbed 30% to $8.6 billion in the quarter and has since crossed $11 billion, cementing the chain as the largest DeFi network behind Ethereum.
- Kamino Finance drove TVL growth, up 34% to $2.1 billion after introducing Kamino Lend V2, which attracted $200 million in deposits and $80 million in loans within three weeks. Kamino now controls 25% of Solana’s market share.
- Raydium staged a strong comeback, rising 54% to $1.8 billion in TVL, reclaiming second place from Jupiter. It now commands 21% share versus Jupiter’s 19%.
- Trading activity, however, told a different story: Average daily spot DEX volume fell 45% to $2.5 billion, reflecting a fading of the memecoin momentum that had fueled the previous quarter’s records.
