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How the Aces saved their season, got back in WNBA playoff hunt
Esports

How the Aces saved their season, got back in WNBA playoff hunt

by admin August 18, 2025


The Las Vegas Aces walked onto their home court with something to prove.

Just 24 hours earlier, they suffered a historic 53-point loss to the Minnesota Lynx at home. The Aces were mad and embarrassed. And now, the closest team to a dynasty the WNBA has seen in the past 10 years was fighting for its pride against the expansion Golden State Valkyries.

“We funneled every inch of our energy into that,” Aces point guard Chelsea Gray told ESPN.

The Aces tied a franchise record with 18 3-pointers and beat the Valkyries by 24 points, the largest turnaround in back-to-back games in WNBA history, according to ESPN Research.

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“When things aren’t going well, it can make you question some things that maybe you thought you were super strong in,” Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon told ESPN. “When things aren’t going well, it has to go back to the foundations. What is the base problem here?”

For the first two months of the season, the Aces were in and out of the playoff picture, suffered a three-game losing streak and were .500 at the All-Star break. The only team to win consecutive titles in the past 20 years, the Aces performed far below preseason expectations.

But Las Vegas turned it around after its Aug. 2 loss to Minnesota. The Aces have won seven consecutive games and pulled even with the Phoenix Mercury for fourth place in the WNBA standings. A’ja Wilson added to her dominance. The league’s reigning MVP is averaging 26.1 points and 13.3 rebounds during the win streak and has scored at least 30 points in three of the past four games.

The Aces look like they can contend. They might host a first-round playoff series. But the challenge is sustaining the momentum.

“You get excited because you see the potential. You see what they are capable of,” Hammon said. “Now, it’s that consistency. In basketball, anyone can be good for a night. But the great ones, they are good every night.”

A’ja Wilson is averaging 26.1 points and 13.3 rebounds and shooting 48.8% in the Aces’ current seven-game win streak, scoring over 30 points in three of the past four games. Ethan Miller/Getty Images

AS THE ACES tried to recover from their embarrassing loss to the Lynx — Minnesota set a WNBA record for largest road win — Hammon had a new assignment for the team: The players had to create their own scouting reports.

Before the start of each practice session, the Aces, led by Wilson, shared their preferred matchups, schemes and flow of the game. Hammon poked holes in the presentations and encouraged the Aces to challenge her prep, too.

Hammon hoped the collaboration would ignite a new level of engagement and attention to detail. It led to immediate success.

“This has helped us jell together to where we can all hold each other accountable,” Wilson said.

In the loss to the Lynx, Hammon called the Las Vegas defense “atrocious.” Since that defeat, the Aces have had a top-five defense and been the league’s second-best rebounding team. And it helped unlock the Las Vegas offense, which has led the league in offensive rating for the past two weeks.

Hammon’s new assignment has also helped create familiarity and chemistry, something the Aces needed to evolve after Kelsey Plum left for Los Angeles in free agency and Natalie Nakase and Tyler Marsh — the Aces’ top two assistant coaches — took head coaching jobs at Golden State and Chicago, respectively. That trio had helped Las Vegas win WNBA titles in 2022 and 2023.

“It’s absolutely a block party. [A’ja Wilson] isn’t new to this, she’s true to this.”

–@chiney Ogwumike on A’ja Wilson’s dominance on the court 🔥

📺 Wings-Aces on ABC/ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/9ClfyZKRr3

— ESPN (@espn) August 17, 2025

With six-time All-Star Jewell Loyd and four other new players added to the roster, this year’s team looked and operated differently. But the Aces didn’t anticipate how long it would take to come together.

“Our offense and defense are so fluid that we had to take time to learn and understand new habits,” Gray said. “It’s only when you learn those habits, you can start to form as a team.”

Loyd set a single-season mark for scoring two seasons ago with Seattle, but struggled to find a rhythm with the Aces. She was limited to single digits in six of 11 games in July while shooting 33.6%. Hammon tinkered with different combinations in the starting lineup, but nothing helped. Loyd suggested she come off the bench, but Hammon was reluctant to make the switch.

After Loyd went scoreless in a loss July 25, the guard was adamant that she be removed from the starting unit.

“I didn’t want her to feel like I was giving up on her or losing confidence in her because that was not the case,” Hammon said. “I made that very clear with her. …. As a coach, when a player says they need change, you’ve got to find a change.”

Although Loyd is playing five fewer minutes, she’s scoring five more points per game coming off the bench, averaging 14.6 points in 25 minutes during her 10 games as a reserve.

“We know how to weather storms right now. In the beginning, we couldn’t get that. We didn’t understand that we have a whole new group, top to bottom,” Wilson said. “That takes time and it takes giving each other a lot of grace and a lot of communication.”

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A’ja Wilson continues her tear with 34 points in Aces’ win

A’ja Wilson leads the Aces to their seventh straight win with 34 points.

WILSON SENT A group text to her teammates after the Aug. 2 loss to Minnesota. The message was simple: flush this game and move on, but don’t forget the way it made everyone feel.

It wasn’t her first pep talk of the season. The Aces’ early-season struggles led to Wilson becoming a more vocal leader, which has been one of the most important developments of Las Vegas’ season.

“It’s easy to lead when you are winning. Winning disguises a lot of different things” Wilson told ESPN. “But when you are in the trenches and things aren’t going well — when it feels like everyone has something to say about this Aces team — how do you lead that? How do you get all of these minds in one accord to stay poised through the noise?”

For most of her career, she built her leadership style on her playing abilities. The three-time WNBA MVP can take over games. Last week, she became the first player in WNBA history to record a 30-point, 20-rebound game. She’s averaging 22.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.1 blocks and 1.6 steals this season, and has scored at least 27 points in five of the past six games. But Wilson is making a point not to force the action.

“I told myself out of All-Star break to just let the game come to me,” Wilson said after a win over Phoenix on Friday. “It’s going to be what it’s going to be. If I try to harp on it or force it because I want this win so bad for my team, it’s like forcing a fart. All you get is s—.”

According to Hammon, Wilson’s growth in her game and leadership has kept the Aces’ locker room intact.

“A lot of times it can fall apart when there is hard time after hard time or you are so close and you lost another one. It’s easy to lose the locker room, not only with myself but them with each other,” Hammon said. “They haven’t done that. They have dug in. My leaders have led when it’s hard and difficult.”

Maintaining trust allowed the Aces to stay confident as they worked out their issues. With nine games left in the regular season, they’re riding the longest active winning streak in the league and vying to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, which begin Sept. 14.

“This is what it takes to win championships. You have to do it right nine out of 10 times, 10 out of 10 times,” Hammon said. “Just keep demanding that greatness.”





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Every current 2025 MLB playoff contender's biggest strength
Esports

Every current 2025 MLB playoff contender’s biggest strength

by admin June 22, 2025


  • David SchoenfieldJun 21, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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    • Covers MLB for ESPN.com
    • Former deputy editor of Page 2
    • Been with ESPN.com since 1995

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are battling this weekend for a lead in the National League East that has gone back and forth between the two clubs, with the Mets opening up a 5½-game lead June 12 before losing six in a row to the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves and drawing the Phillies back in.

The Braves were supposed to be part of this mix but have stumbled through a terrible first half, leaving this as a two-team race. While Mets and Phillies fans are bitter rivals, it’s been a long time since the two teams have clashed for a division crown. Even last season, when both teams joined the Braves in the playoffs, the Mets were never really in the division race, getting no closer in the second half than five games back in the final week.

The Mets and Braves tied for the division title with 101 wins in 2022, but the Phillies finished 14 games behind, only to get hot in the postseason and reach the World Series. The Phillies were bad for a long time before that, the Mets mostly bad, so we go back to 2008 to find the most recent heated Mets-Phillies division race. The Mets were a half-game up with nine to play, but they finished 3-6, while the Phillies went 6-2 to win the division by three games — and went on to win the World Series.

What has put both teams in this position? Let’s look at the biggest strength so far for the Mets, Phillies and all the teams in the majors with records currently above .500 this season, starting with the National League.

National League

Record: 47-30 (1st in NL West)

Biggest strength: Offense

Just like the Cubs, the Dodgers might have the best offense in franchise history, league-adjusted. They lead the majors in runs scored and their wRC+ of 124 would be their highest ever. (If we remove pitchers from the equation, the top mark goes to the 1953 Brooklyn club at 126.) This is nothing new, as the Dodgers have ranked first or second in the NL in runs scored each season since 2018.

We know all about the remarkable exploits of Shohei Ohtani and his chance to become the first player to score 160 runs since Lou Gehrig, but one big key of late has been Max Muncy — now wearing glasses. Through April 29, Muncy was hitting .180 with no home runs in 28 games. He wore glasses for the first time on April 30 and homered that night. He’s hitting .281/.420/.541 since donning the eyewear, giving the Dodgers yet another lethal bat.

Record: 46-30 (1st in NL East)

Biggest strength: Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez

On paper and in the standings, the Phillies match up with the Mets. When you dig into the numbers, however, the Mets should be ahead of them. Even with their recent slide, the Mets have a plus-60 run differential, with the Phillies at plus-42. The Mets are fifth in the majors in bullpen win probability added, the Phillies way down at 23rd as they’ve struggled with their closer situation. Aaron Nola is 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA and on the IL. Even Bryce Harper has been a little down at the plate and is now injured as well.

But the Phillies do have Wheeler and Suarez (and Cristopher Sanchez has been good, too). Wheeler is doing his usual thing, once again on the short list for best pitcher in baseball. At 35, he’s not only showing no signs of age, but has a career-high strikeout rate of 32.5%. Suarez, meanwhile, is 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA in starts after beginning the season on the IL. After giving up seven runs in his first start, he has been in lockdown mode, with a 1.17 ERA across eight starts, including five of seven innings. Suarez has had runs like this before, including a 2.76 ERA in the first half last season that earned him an All-Star spot.

Record: 45-30 (1st in NL Central)

Biggest strength: Offense. And defense. AKA: Pete Crow-Armstrong

How good has the Cubs’ offense been? They’re averaging 5.36 runs per game, second in the majors. The last time they came close to that was 5.31 in 2008. The last time they averaged more per game was 1935, when five regulars hit over .300. If we adjust for league context, however, the 2025 Cubs have the highest wRC+ in franchise history since 1900. This is an excellent offense.

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How good has the Cubs’ defense been? They’re second in the majors in both defensive runs saved and Statcast’s fielding run value.

Leading the way on both sides of the ball has been the thrilling, the wonderful, the breathtaking Pete Crow-Armstrong. How good has the 23-year-old center fielder been? With his defense, power and speed, he has already posted 4.3 WAR though 74 games, a season-long pace of 9.5. Only four Cubs position players have topped that mark: Rogers Hornsby in 1929 (10.6), Sammy Sosa in 2001 (10.3), Ernie Banks in 1959 (10.2) and Ron Santo in 1967 (9.8).

The analytics say he can’t keep this up, that pitchers will figure how to exploit his league-worst chase rate. Except they haven’t yet (see the 452-foot home run he just hit a few days ago). In the Statcast metrics, he ranks in the 100th percentile in fielding value, 99th percentile in baserunning value, and 89th percentile in batting value. Call that the triple crown of awesomeness.

Record: 45-31 (2nd in NL East)

Biggest strength: Starting pitching

The Mets’ big three — Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso — have all been outstanding, with Soto back on track after a slow start, but the rotation has keyed the team’s strong start, leading the majors with a 3.03 ERA. They’ve done it even without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, who haven’t pitched in the majors yet this season. Leading the way have been Kodai Senga (1.47 ERA), David Peterson (2.60) and Clay Holmes (3.04). Kudos to Mets management for signing Holmes as a free agent and converting him from reliever to starter, a gutsy move that has paid huge dividends.

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Aside from likely regression, the rotation depth will now be tested. Senga just injured his hamstring and might miss a month. Tylor Megill is out with an elbow sprain and could miss up to five weeks. Montas’ rehab clock ends Sunday, but he got pounded in four Triple-A starts for Syracuse, with a 13.19 ERA and just eight strikeouts in 14⅓ innings. He looks unusable for the rotation right now, so the Mets might have to bury him in the bullpen. Manaea made a rehab start for Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, so he’s at least getting closer. The Mets might also have a weapon waiting in the minors if needed in Jonah Tong, who has a 1.97 ERA in Double-A while averaging 14.6 K’s per nine.

Record: 42-34 (2nd in NL West)

Biggest strength: Front-line pitching

The Giants are third in the majors in ERA and fifth in runs allowed per game, but have relied on a relatively small group of pitchers to achieve that: starters Logan Webb (7-5, 2.49 ERA) and Robbie Ray (8-2, 2.68 ERA) and relievers Randy Rodriguez, Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Erik Miller (all with sub-2.00 ERAs). Hayden Birdsong has also moved to the rotation from the bullpen and has a 3.25 ERA.

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Not surprisingly, the Giants receive a lot of help from their home park: Their ERA is 2.89 at home and 3.72 on the road. That road ERA is still seventh best in the majors, but the Giants have certainly thrived at home, where they are 23-14 despite averaging fewer than four runs per game. Acquiring Rafael Devers will help the offense, but the pressure will remain on the pitching to win these low-scoring games. The Giants are 18-15 in one-run games, leading the majors in one-run games played and one-run wins — with 10 such wins coming when they’ve scored three or fewer runs.

Record: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd in NL Central)

Biggest strength: Position player durability

OK, this is kind of a weird one, but we’re trying to figure out how the Brewers are once again succeeding. Their bullpen has been solid, but certainly has had a few more leaks than the past two seasons, when the pen was dominant, especially in win probability added. They’re good on the bases, but near the bottom of the league in home runs. So let’s go with lineup stability.

The Brewers have played 76 games, and seven players have played at least 70 of them. That’s pretty remarkable in today’s game, when staying healthy sometimes feels like half the battle. Other than Joey Ortiz, they have all produced positive WAR — and since the Brewers are not using their bench much or resorting to call-ups, they’re avoiding the “bad” plate appearances that drag down some lineups. No single player is tearing it up, but having seven slightly better than average hitters might be enough to win a wild card.

Record: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd in NL Central)

Biggest strength: Rotation stability

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The Cardinals have been a mild surprise, even without any specific thing standing out. Is anybody on offense killing it? Not really. Brendan Donovan is hitting over .300 and has a bunch of doubles, and Ivan Herrera is hitting over .300 and has an OPS over .900, but he missed a month. Has the bullpen been shutting opponents down? Not exactly, no. Closer Ryan Helsley has five blown saves. Is the defense great? Maybe, with Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn, but the teamwide metrics don’t stand out. Is the rotation dominating? Hardly. The rotation is 18th in ERA.

But … the rotation has been stable, with the top five guys all making at least 14 starts. They’ve needed only four starts from outside those five, two of those coming in doubleheaders and a third resulting from a doubleheader. This is a change from last year, when eight pitchers made at least six starts and especially from the 91-loss season of 2023, when only Miles Mikolas made more than 21 starts. Similar to the Brewers not using many bad position players, the Cardinals at least haven’t had to deploy any bad starters — and that keeps you in games.

Record: 40-35 (3rd in NL West)

Biggest strength: The big three (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill)

The Padres are kind of walking a tightrope right now, with several key performers either injured (Michael King, Yu Darvish) or not providing much value (Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts). Closer Robert Suarez has even had two catastrophic five-run blowups in save situations. Arraez is hitting .280, but it’s an empty .280 — he’s posting a career-low OBP with poor defensive metrics and he has been worth 0.1 WAR. Bogaerts is heading for a third straight season where his OPS+ will drop since he signed with the Padres, so he has been worth just 0.8 WAR (at least his defense has been solid).

While Gavin Sheets has stepped up in the DH role, the Padres’ lineup otherwise lacks depth: Ten different players have batted at least 10 times and have negative WAR. The Padres will no doubt look to address this at the trade deadline, but with Arraez and Bogaerts not major contributors, that puts all the pressure on Machado, Tatis and Merrill — and Merrill is currently on the concussion IL. Tatis might be the focal point here: He had a huge April with eight home runs and 1.011 OPS, slumped in May (.184 batting average, .626 OPS) and has been better in June. Let’s just say it would be beneficial for the April Tatis to show up the rest of the way.

Record: 39-37 (4th in NL Central)

Biggest strength: A young rotation finally emerging

The Reds have come up with several talented young pitchers in recent years, but have had issues keeping them healthy or seeing them productive in the same season. So far, however, the Reds’ rotation ranks third in Baseball-Reference WAR, behind only the Phillies and Royals, with Andrew Abbott (6-1, 1.84 ERA in 12 starts) perhaps on his way to a breakout season and Nick Lodolo on his way to a career high in games started and innings.

They’ll need to get Hunter Greene healthy, though. Greene tied Chris Sale for the NL lead with 6.2 bWAR last season and was on his way to a similar campaign (2.72 ERA in 11 starts) until he missed two weeks with a groin strain, returned to make three starts, and then landed back on the IL with another groin strain and a sore back that required an epidural. Veteran Wade Miley is filling in for Greene, and the options beyond him appear limited, so getting Greene back will be a must in the second half.

Record: 38-37 (4th in NL West)

Biggest strength: Offensive depth

After leading the majors in runs scored in 2024, the Diamondbacks are once again averaging more than five runs per game, one of just four teams above that mark. Leading the way: Corbin Carroll, having a bounce-back season more in line with his rookie numbers from 2023 except with even more power; Ketel Marte, with an OPS over .900; and slugging third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who has 24 home runs. Eight of the nine regulars have an OPS+ over 100, and the top two bench guys are solid-average as well.

The problem: They might need the offense to be even better. Corbin Burnes is out for the season, and Merrill Kelly has been the team’s only other consistent starter with Zac Gallen’s ERA on the wrong side of 5 and Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez getting hit hard. Outside of Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks, the bullpen has been terrible, ranking last in the majors in win probability added. The Diamondbacks will have some tough decisions at the trade deadline and will be the most interesting team to watch, with Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, Miller, Beeks and Josh Naylor all heading to free agency.

American League

Record: 48-29 (1st in AL Central)

Biggest strength: Tarik Skubal

The Detroit offense has been much improved, ranking fifth in the majors in runs per game after finishing 19th last season. On defense, the versatility of multiple players like Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry helps manager AJ Hinch. Still, the clear strength here is reigning Cy Young Award winner Skubal — who might be on his way to becoming the first repeat winner in the AL since Pedro Martinez in 2000.

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Skubal began the season with two so-so starts and lost both those games, but since then he’s 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA and an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio of 107-to-8 — yes, that’s eight walks in his past 13 starts. The Tigers are 11-2 in those games, with the two losses a 10th-inning defeat and a 1-0 finish. When Skubal starts, the Tigers usually win.

Because of Skubal’s excellence, the Tigers rank third in the majors in rotation ERA. Still, that probably overrates their depth, as Hinch has been investing heavily in openers such as Brant Hurter and Tyler Holton of late, with only Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize remaining on regular rotation. With Jackson Jobe done for the year with Tommy John surgery, Skubal’s importance ramps up even higher.

Record: 44-32 (1st in AL West)

Biggest strength: Late-game bullpen

Houston’s offense has actually been pretty solid after a poor April — even without Yordan Alvarez — and the 1-2 duo of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez has been dominant, but the back end of the bullpen has been the key for the team’s surge into first place.

It begins with closer Josh Hader. After a homer-prone first season with the Astros in 2024 in which he allowed 12 home runs in 71 innings and lost eight games, Hader is 5-1 and a perfect 18-for-18 in save opportunities. Setting him up are Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, Steven Okert and Bennett Sousa, all with sub-3.00 ERAs. Shawn Dubin has a sub-2.00 ERA in more limited action. Overall, Houston ranks fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA.

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In high-leverage situations, the bullpen has been even better, with the lowest OPS in the majors, holding batters to a .146/.233/.236 line according to TruMedia data. That performance has helped the Astros to a 14-7 record in one-run games and a 5-0 mark in extra innings.

Is the pen this good? Hader and Abreu have strong track records. That’s less true for King, Okert and Sousa — but nothing in their numbers screams fluke, as they’ve combined for 109 strikeouts and just 18 walks. Veteran Okert, 33, has been the biggest surprise. Signed as a free agent for just $1.2 million, he entered 2025 with a career walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings; suddenly he’s Greg Maddux and has just six walks in 34⅔ innings (with 44 strikeouts). Other than Abreu, the other three setup guys are left-handed, but that hasn’t been an issue so far. This pen looks like the real deal.

Record: 43-32 (1st in AL East)

Biggest strength: Aaron Judge

For the first two months of 2025, the Yankees’ offense was clicking on all cylinders. Judge was leading the way with a historic start to his season, putting up numbers only Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth had matched over a full season. But he wasn’t the only one doing big damage. Paul Goldschmidt was hitting .347 through May 28, Trent Grisham cracked 12 home runs and had an OPS over 1.000 through May 12, and Ben Rice had an OPS over .900 as late as May 20.

The Yankees not only weren’t missing Juan Soto but were thriving without him. Unlike last season, when Soto was often the only major supporting cast member, Judge suddenly had multiple mashers around him.

Alas, what happens when Judge goes into a slump? During a recent six-game losing streak, Judge went 2-for-23 with 14 strikeouts and just a solo home run for his lone RBI, his average dropping from .392 to .366. The Yankees scored six runs and were shut out in three consecutive games, just the seventh time that has happened in franchise history.

It wasn’t just Judge. Goldschmidt, Grisham and Rice have all predictably regressed from their hot starts, leading to the concern: Can this lineup score enough runs if Judge isn’t superhuman all the time?

Record: 42-34 (2nd in AL East)

Biggest strength: Infield offense

The Rays are a balanced team without any single huge strength. They do lead the majors in stolen bases, but that’s primarily from two players: Jose Caballero and Chandler Simpson (and Simpson is currently in the minors). Their overall baserunning is a strength, third in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric, but that’s a small strength and hardly the reason they’ve surged after sitting five games under .500 on May 19. They’re a good defensive team, but they’ve had better defensive teams. The pitching? Good, but they’ve had better seasons in that area as well.

Let’s go with their overall offense from the four infield positions. The Rays rank third in the majors in OPS, third in home runs and third in runs from their infielders. First baseman Jonathan Aranda has been the best hitter in this group, having his breakout season at age 27 and in line for possible All-Star selection. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is doing his usual thing, with 15 home runs, and, most importantly, has remained healthy. Taylor Walls is the defensive wizard at shortstop, while Caballero splits time there in his utility role.

Then there’s Junior Caminero. Remember him? Last year’s hyped prospect doesn’t turn 22 until July and entered the season with just 213 plate appearances, but it feels as if everyone forgot about him heading into 2025 after he didn’t immediately tear up the majors as a rookie. He remains a flawed offensive player with an OBP just north of .300 and is on pace to break Jim Rice’s single-season record for grounding into double plays, but the power has arrived with 17 home runs — and he’s been red-hot of late, hitting .317/.389/.683 since May 23 with nine home runs and 28 RBIs in 26 games. That included a 4-for-5 game Wednesday as the Rays rallied from an 8-0 deficit to beat the Orioles 12-8. That sounds like the Rays team that made the playoffs five straight years from 2019 to 2023: scrappy, underrated and capable of beating you in different ways.

Record: 40-35 (3rd in AL East)

Biggest strength: Lowest strikeout rate in majors

We’re digging here to find somewhere the Jays excel. They are a very good defensive team with either Daulton Varsho or Myles Straw in center (Varsho is on the injured list at the moment), Andres Gimenez at second, and Ernie Clement at third. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is posting the best defensive metrics of his career. The pitching certainly hasn’t been a strength. They’ve been outhomered 101 to 77, so power hasn’t been their game. Indeed, the Jays are five games over .500 even though they’ve been outscored by 14 runs.

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That makes them a hard team to read. They’re 7-13 in blowout games — those decided by five or more runs — and that’s usually a surefire indicator of a bad team. Good teams don’t get blown out more often than they blow out their opponents. The Jays have thus done well in close games, and one related cause might be their ability to put the bat on the ball. They do have five walk-off wins (as opposed to two walk-off losses) and they’re 5-2 in extra-inning contests. In the bigger picture, maybe the contact rate will eventually turn into more offense if they can turn more of those balls into extra-base hits (the Jays are just 17th in the majors in isolated power). With just nine home runs, Guerrero is certainly the primary guy to watch in this area.

Record: 40-37 (4th in AL East)

Biggest strength: Garrett Crochet

What, you expected this to say team chemistry or something? The promise of youth? No, with Rafael Devers in San Francisco and Alex Bregman still on the injured list, Crochet is the answer here. Where would this rotation be without him? Let’s do some math:

Crochet: 7-4, 2.20 ERA, 10-for-16 in quality starts

Other starters: 15-17, 5.04 ERA, 22-for-60 in quality starts

Now, maybe those “others” will improve. Tanner Houck, Sean Newcomb and Richard Fitts are a combined 0-9, and Houck is now on the IL, Newcomb is on the Athletics and Fitts is in the minors. Brayan Bello has been better his past few starts, but Boston is still looking for consistency from Walker Buehler and Lucas Giolito. Even if the young position players start hitting better, the Red Sox are going to need more than just Crochet to stabilize the rotation.

Record: 38-36 (2nd in AL West)

Biggest strength: The Big Dumper

Here’s a stat that might surprise you: The Mariners are third in the majors in road OPS. Is this actually a good offensive team, only to have that good offense masked by playing half their games in a home park where offense goes to die? The Mariners are hitting .265/.345/.428 on the road, trailing only the Cubs and Yankees in OPS. At home, however, the numbers dip to .221/.300/.371 — 24th in the majors in OPS.

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The Big Dumper is Cal Raleigh, and with the starting rotation struggling with injuries, the bullpen a little thin behind standout closer Andres Munoz and Julio Rodriguez more “meh” than awesome, Raleigh has felt like a one-man show at times. He leads the majors with 29 home runs, leads the AL with 63 RBIs, and trails only Judge in OPS. He has played in 73 of Seattle’s 74 games and does his best damage when he starts behind the plate: Twenty-seven of his 29 home runs have come as a catcher. The record for home runs by a primary catcher is Salvador Perez’s 48 in 2021, but only 33 of those came as a catcher. The record for home runs hit while catching is Javy Lopez’s 42 in 2003. Raleigh’s 180 wRC+ currently sits second highest for a primary catcher, behind only Mike Piazza’s 183 in 1997.

All that undersells how Raleigh has propped up the Mariners. He’s been clutch as well, ranking in the top three in the majors in advanced metrics such as win probability added, situational wins added and championship WPA. Oh, and he’s hitting .257/.358/.614 at home. Judge might have MVP all but locked up already, but don’t tell that to the Big Dumper.



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June 22, 2025 0 comments
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College Football Playoff seeding changes - How 2024 would have played out
Esports

College Football Playoff seeding changes – How 2024 would have played out

by admin May 22, 2025


  • Bill ConnellyMay 22, 2025, 04:01 PM ET

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      Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.

After months of meeting to discuss things to discuss at future meetings, the people in charge of the College Football Playoff actually made a decision on Thursday, and it was one we’ve assumed they’d make for a while. After last year’s 12-team CFP gave byes to the four most highly ranked conference champions, this year’s will not.

Conference commissioners voted to go to a straight seeding format (with five spots still reserved for conference champions) in 2025.

There are still plenty of things to discuss regarding what the CFP will look like in 2026 and beyond — and good lord, don’t even get me started on how much I don’t like where we’re probably headed in that regard — but with the 2025 season starting in less than 100 days, we at least know how things will take shape this fall. Here are a few thoughts regarding these changes.

A 2024 simulation

ESPN

To see what something might look like in the future, my first step is always to revisit the past. Last year’s 12-teamer, the first-ever genuine tournament at the highest level of college football, indeed handed out byes to conference champions and gave us the weird visual of having two different numbers listed next to the teams in the bracket.

Boise State, for instance, was ranked ninth in the overall CFP rankings, but the Broncos got the No. 3 seed as the third-ranked conference champ. Arizona State was simultaneously 12th and fourth. Granted, the NFL does something similar, giving the top three seeds in each conference to the winners of each individual division (which occasionally gives us odd pairings such as 9-8 Tampa Bay hosting 11-6 Philadelphia in 2023 or the 10-7 Los Angeles Rams hosting 14-3 Minnesota in 2024). But from the start, it was clear there was some dissatisfaction with this approach. And when both BSU and ASU lost in the quarterfinals — all four conference champions did, actually — it became abundantly clear that this was going to change. It just took about five months to actually happen.

Regardless, let’s look at how the 2024 playoff would have taken shape with straight seeding instead of conference-champ byes.

First round

12 Clemson at 5 Notre Dame (SP+ projection: Irish by 13.1, 79.4% win probability)
11 Arizona State at 6 Ohio State (OSU by 24.2*, 93.6% win probability)
10 SMU at 7 Tennessee (Tennessee by 7.0, 66.9% win probability)
9 Boise State at 8 Indiana (Indiana by 12.5, 78.3% win probability)

(* Here’s your reminder that SP+ really didn’t trust Arizona State much last season, primarily because the Sun Devils were a pretty average team early in the season. At 5-2 with a number of close wins and a sketchy-looking loss at Cincinnati without injured quarterback Sam Leavitt, they entered November ranked in the 50s. While they certainly rose during their late-year hot streak, they finished the year only 35th. They were genuinely excellent late in the season — just ask Texas — but they were 6-1 in one-score games heading into the CFP, and they were lucky to reach November with the Big 12 title still within reach.)

In last year’s actual first round, the four home teams (Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas) were projected as favorites by an average of 7.2 points per SP+. The average spread was Home Team -8.9. The results were actually much more lopsided than that, and that probably wouldn’t be any different with the matchups above — here, home teams are projected favorites by an average of 14.2. Changing to straight seeding wouldn’t have made the first round more competitive.

Assuming all four home teams win in this simulation, that gives us the following quarterfinals.

Quarterfinals

Rose Bowl: 1 Oregon vs. 8 Indiana (SP+ projection: Oregon by 5.9, 64.4% win probability)
Fiesta Bowl: 4 Penn State vs. 5 Notre Dame (PSU by 0.7, 51.8% win probability)
Sugar Bowl: 3 Texas vs. 6 Ohio State (OSU by 7.1, 67.1% win probability)
Peach Bowl: 2 Georgia vs. 7 Tennessee (UGA by 2.4, 55.9% win probability)

Interestingly enough, we got two of these four matchups in real life, but they were the two semifinals — Ohio State’s 28-14 win over Texas in the Cotton Bowl and Notre Dame’s late 27-24 win over Penn State in the Orange Bowl. Now these games take place in New Orleans and Glendale, Arizona, respectively. We’ll conveniently project those results to remain the same. Meanwhile, SP+ says there’s only about a 36% chance that the other two projected favorites (Oregon and Georgia) both win, but we’ll roll with that.

Semifinals

Cotton Bowl: 1 Oregon vs. 5 Notre Dame (SP+ projection: Oregon by 2.1, 55.3% win probability)
Orange Bowl: 2 Georgia vs. 6 Ohio State (OSU by 6.8, 66.6% win probability)

With those win probabilities, there’s only about a 37% chance that both projected favorites win, and this time we’ll heed that and project an upset: Conveniently, we’ll say Notre Dame upsets Oregon, giving us the exact same Fighting Irish-Buckeyes title game we got in real life.

Final

5 Notre Dame vs. 6 Ohio State

Again, we saw this one.

Who would have benefited from this change?

In all, using my pre-CFP SP+ projections from December, here’s a comparison of what each team’s national title odds were heading into the tournament versus what they’d have looked like with straight seeding.

TeamOld systemNew systemDifferenceOhio State12.5%16.6%+4.1%Tennessee5.1%7.4%+2.3%Indiana4.1%5.9%+1.8%Oregon20.4%21.9%+1.5%Notre Dame9.0%9.7%+0.7%Penn State8.9%9.4%+0.5%Clemson0.8%0.4%-0.4%Arizona State0.6%<0.1%-0.6%Boise State1.1%0.2%-0.9%SMU3.7%1.8%-1.9%Georgia16.6%14.0%-2.6%Texas17.2%12.6%-4.6%

Not surprisingly, Arizona State’s and Boise State’s odds would have sunk without receiving a bye, but their title odds were minimal regardless. The teams that actually ended up hurt the most by the change would have been 2-seed Georgia, original 5-seed Texas and original 11-seed SMU. The main reason for the downshift in odds? They’d have all been placed on Ohio State’s side of the bracket. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s and Tennessee’s odds would have benefited from the simple fact that they would no longer be paired with unbeaten No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal. Obviously Ohio State handled that challenge with aplomb, but the Buckeyes still had to ace that test, then win two more games to take the title.

Beyond Ohio State and Tennessee, both Indiana and Oregon would have seen their title odds improve a bit with straight seeding, though for different reasons. Indiana would have gotten a first-round home game instead of having to travel to South Bend, while Oregon would have avoided Ohio State until a potential finals matchup.

Takeaways

Good: The No. 5 seed isn’t quite as uniquely valuable now

We never got to see the 12-team playoff as originally envisioned, with six conference champions earning bids from a universe that featured five power conferences. Instead, between the announced adoption of the 12-team playoff and its actual arrival, the SEC officially added Oklahoma and Texas to its roster while the Big Ten, with help from the Big 12, cannibalized the Pac-12. With only four power conferences remaining, we ended up with only five conference champions guaranteed entry, and with the distribution of power getting further consolidated (we still have four power conferences, but it’s clearly a Power Two and Other Two), that left us with an awkward bracket.

For starters, the new power distribution meant that the No. 5 seed — almost certainly the higher-ranked team between the losers of the Big Ten and SEC championship games — would get an almost unfair advantage. As I wrote back in December, “the odds are pretty good that the teams earning the No. 4 and 12 seeds (aka the two lowest-ranked conference champs) will be the weakest teams in the field …. Texas, the top-ranked non-champion and 5-seed, is indeed pitted against what SP+ thinks are the No. 17 and No. 30 teams in the country and therefore has excellent odds of reaching the semifinals.”

As you see above, Texas actually entered the CFP with better title odds (17.2%) than Georgia (16.6%), a higher-ranked team in SP+ and the team that had just defeated the Longhorns in the SEC title game. In theory, giving a team a bye and asking them to win three games instead of four would be a massive advantage. But in practice Texas’ odds of winning two games (against Clemson and ASU) were better than Georgia’s odds of winning one (Notre Dame). That’s not particularly fair, is it?

Bad: Conference title games mean even less now

Making this change would have indeed given the SEC champion better title odds than the SEC runner-up. That’s good, but it comes with a cost. In the re-simulation above, you’ll notice that both the winners and losers of the SEC and Big Ten title games ended up with byes and top-four seeds. That means there were almost literally no stakes — besides a quest to avoid major injuries like what afflicted Georgia — in either game.

Meanwhile, in the ACC championship, SMU lost to Clemson but barely fell in the CFP rankings (and, more specifically, still got in) because the playoff committee didn’t want to punish the Mustangs for playing a 13th game while others around them in the rankings were already done at 12. Add to that the fact that the straight-seeding approach diminished the above title odds for four of the five conference champions in the field, and it leads you toward a pretty easy question: Why are we even playing these games?

Commissioners of the power conferences have pretty clearly had that in their minds as they’ve discussed a convoluted (and, in my own opinion, patently ridiculous) new playoff structure that hands multiple automatic bids to each of the top four conferences: up to four each for the SEC and Big Ten and likely two each for the ACC and Big 12. With this structure in place, they can drift from title games and toward multiple play-in games within each conference. I absolutely hate this idea — if you want to wreck the integrity of the regular season, nothing would do that faster than a 7-5 or 8-4 Big Ten team potentially stealing a bid from a 10-2 or 11-1 comrade that was vastly superior in the regular season — but you can at least understand why the commissioners themselves, facing a world with diminished conference title games (and always looking for more TV spectacles), would try to get creative in this regard.

Straight seeding doesn’t change all that much. Ohio State was given a harder title path last year than would have existed with straight seeding, but the Buckeyes cruised regardless, winning four games by a combined 70 points. Meanwhile, even with a bye, Boise State and Arizona State weren’t likely to win three games and go all the way. The team that best peaks in December and January will win 2025’s title just like it did in 2024, we’ll enjoy ourselves all the same, and we’ll be facing another change in 2026 no matter what.

The countdown toward 2025 continues.



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May 22, 2025 0 comments
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