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playoff

Detroit Tigers clinch playoff berth for 2nd consecutive year

by admin September 28, 2025

Sep 27, 2025, 07:06 PM ET

BOSTON — Jahmai Jones hit a two-run single in the fifth inning, and the Detroit Tigers hung on to defeat the Boston Red Sox 2-1 on Saturday, clinching a spot in the American League playoffs for the second consecutive season.

Less than 24 hours after the Red Sox sealed their postseason berth, the Tigers claimed at least a wild card spot and pushed the Houston Astros closer to elimination. Detroit still could win the AL Central title but would need help from Texas, which played Cleveland on Saturday night.

Keider Montero and four relievers held Boston to one run and seven hits. Tyler Holton (6-5) got four outs for the victory. Will Vest pitched the ninth for his 23rd save.

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“Kind of a crazy ride, but it’s well worth it,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told his team in the clubhouse Saturday night during the celebration. “We went up, we went down, we went up again.”

The Tigers (87-74) led the division by as many as 14 games in July and still held a 9½-game lead on Sept. 11 before losses in 12 out of 14 games dropped them into a tie with Cleveland (86-74). The Guardians, who were in fourth place and 15½ games back on July 7, are 17-4 since Sept. 5 and hold the tiebreaker against Detroit.

Detroit has ace Tarik Skubal (13-6) lined up to pitch in Sunday’s regular-season finale, but the Tigers would love to save him for the postseason opener.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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September 28, 2025 0 comments

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Red Sox clinch first playoff berth since 2021 on walk-off

by admin September 27, 2025

Sep 26, 2025, 10:12 PM ET

BOSTON — Ceddanne Rafaela tripled off the center field wall to drive in the game-ending run in the ninth inning on Friday night, giving the Red Sox a 4-3 victory over the Detroit Tigers and clinching Boston’s first postseason berth since 2021.

Boston rallied from a 3-0 deficit to move two games ahead of the Tigers and 2 1/2 ahead of Houston in the race for the last two American League wild-card berths, with two games left to play. Detroit, which has lost 12 of its last 14 games, can still reach the playoffs and even win the AL Central with help from Cleveland.

Boston tied the game in the eighth inning and then Romy Gonzalez singled to center with one out in the ninth. Rafaela, who missed clearing the Green Monster in the seventh by about a foot, sent a 1-0 pitch off the wall in center.

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Gonzalez, who held up to make sure it wasn’t caught, raced around to score as his teammates streamed out of the dugout and nearly beat him to the plate.

Masataka Yoshida had three hits for Boston. Closer Aroldis Chapman (5-3) pitched the ninth for the win. Tommy Kahnle (1-5) got just one out in the bottom of the ninth.

Key moment

The Red Sox missed a pair of two-run homers by about two feet: Nathaniel Lowe hit a line drive off the Green Monster in the second inning, just missing the top of the wall. Rafaela also settled for a double with his liner off the top of the 37-foot wall in the seventh.

Key stat

It was Boston’s major league-leading 12th walk-off win of the season. That’s tied for the second most in franchise history. The Red Sox won on their last at-bat 13 times in 1940.

Up next

LHP Connelly Early (1-1) will start for Boston on Saturday. The Tigers had not named a starter.

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September 27, 2025 0 comments

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Francisco Lindor makes history as Mets continue playoff push

by admin September 26, 2025

Bradford DoolittleSep 25, 2025, 09:11 PM ET
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CHICAGO — With one blow on a perfect early autumn night, a Francisco Lindor blast made all kinds of history. For the Mets, though, there remains only one kind of history to make — the one that lands them in the postseason.

The Mets helped themselves in that regard in knocking off the Cubs 8-5 on Thursday behind another veteranlike outing from dynamic rookie righty Nolan McLean, who struck out a career-high 11 batters and scattered five Chicago runs while pitching with a sizable lead. New York escaped the key series at Wrigley Field with a big series win.

Still, with three games to go, the Mets haven’t locked down anything.

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“We’ve got to go out there and take care of business,” Lindor said. “The teams that are out there fighting for the playoffs are really good teams, so we have to go out there and get it done.”

McLean got plenty of help in a drama-free win at a time when nothing has been easy for the Mets. Lindor’s 30th homer in the third pushed New York’s early advantage to 3-0, and Brett Baty’s three-run shot in the fourth broke the game open.

Next up is Miami, and the Mets will fly to Florida still in control of their own fate in the race for the National League’s last wild-card spot. New York leads Cincinnati by one game and Arizona by two, but the Mets would lose a tiebreaker against either club should they finish with identical regular-season records.

“You want to stay alive,” Lindor said. “We’re in a position right now where we control our own destiny. But we’ve got to go take care of business. The Marlins have played as well, and we know that.”

Lindor’s homer was notable for several reasons. Lindor, who has swiped 31 bases this season, now has his second career 30-30 season, making him just the second primary shortstop to have two such campaigns, according to ESPN Research. Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. was the first.

In addition, Lindor joins Mets star Juan Soto in this season’s 30-30 club, making them just the third pair of teammates to do it in the same season. The others were the Mets’ Howard Johnson and Darryl Strawberry (1987) and the Rockies’ Dante Bichette and Ellis Burks (1996).

As usual, Lindor deflected from his role in his own accomplishments.

“I’m blessed to be around good teammates, people that are elite, are at the top of what they do,” Lindor said. “When it comes to me, I’m surrounded by good teammates, good hitting coaches, and they try to find that edge every single day.”

This also marks Lindor’s sixth 30-homer season, moving him past Cubs legend Ernie Banks for the most such campaigns by a shortstop. Lindor now trails only Alex Rodriguez, who had seven.

Finally, Lindor joins Soto and Pete Alonso for the Mets in the 30-home run club, the first time in the 64-year history of the Mets that they’ve had three players hit that mark.

Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor’s 30th home run of the season in the third inning of Thursday’s 8-5 win over the Cubs gave him his second career 30-30 season. Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images

“It’s pretty impressive,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “It goes to show you the type of players that we’ve got here. They’ve been carrying us for pretty much a whole year.”

McLean may have debuted too late in the season to mount a real push for NL Rookie of the Year, but if he had started earlier, he’d be a front-runner. McLean is now 5-1 over eight starts since his promotion with a miniscule 2.06 ERA. The Mets, whose second-half pitching struggles have caused all sorts of headaches for their fans, are 6-2 in his starts. The other Mets starters are a combined 6-12 since McLean’s first start on Aug. 16.

“I’m just trying to keep the game plan as different as possible, as many times as I can,” said McLean, who used all six of the pitches in his arsenal through the outing. “Just playing that cat-and-mouse game constantly, which I think is important.”

New York’s season-ending series against the Marlins starts Friday, while the Reds finish at Milwaukee, and Arizona visits San Diego.

With a couple more nights like Thursday, the Mets hope to head to Los Angeles to play the NL West champion Dodgers in a wild-card series, a rematch of last year’s scintillating National League Championship Series. But first there is business to attend to in South Florida.

“You walk away from this series feeling good obviously, but you still got to go out there and take care of business in Miami,” Mendoza said. “We’re in this position, but we’re still in control.”

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September 26, 2025 0 comments

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Mariners clinch playoff berth, close in on AL West title

by admin September 24, 2025

Alden GonzalezSep 24, 2025, 02:16 AM ET
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SEATTLE — In the end, when they needed a big hit, it was Josh Naylor, the man who brought such a noticeable edge to this surging Seattle Mariners team over these past two months, who delivered it.

His eighth-inning, bases-loaded three-run double Tuesday night triggered a 4-3, come-from-behind victory over the Colorado Rockies, sent the Mariners back into the postseason and put them on the cusp of a long-awaited division title. The last time the Mariners won the American League West, it was 2001, a year highlighted by 116 regular-season wins. That can change as early as Wednesday, with either another win by them or another loss by the Houston Astros.

But first, the Mariners celebrated their first postseason clinch since 2022 — and hoped for many more.

“We wanna do all of ’em — and a big one in the end,” Naylor said, puffing on a cigar just steps away from a champagne-and-beer celebration in the middle of the Mariners’ clubhouse. “With a nice parade around the city.”

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Seattle remains the only current major league city that has yet to host a World Series game, but this season’s team is continually inspiring hope for October.

Tuesday’s win was the Mariners’ fifth in a row and 15th in a stretch of 16 games — immediately following a 6-15 stretch that made fans wonder if their team was poised for another late-season slide. It followed a resounding sweep in Houston, one in which the Mariners never trailed. And it has them thinking their best might be ahead of them.

The Mariners’ vaunted rotation — minus Bryan Woo, nursing a pectoral injury the team hopes won’t keep him out of the playoffs — is dominating again as so many expected at the start of the season. Their lineup, bolstered by the midseason additions of Naylor and fellow corner infielder Eugenio Suarez, is producing. Their bullpen looks lethal. In a year when practically every team possesses glaring weaknesses and has navigated tough stretches, the Mariners are making a case for being the most complete.

“There is a lot of work to do, starting with the division,” said Dan Wilson, a longtime Mariners catcher in his first full season as their manager. “Hopefully we get that done sooner than later and we keep going. But there’s a lot ahead of us. And this team I think is ready and primed for it.”

The Mariners won 90 games and snuck into the playoffs, ending a 21-year drought, in 2022. They followed by winning back-to-back games in Toronto during the wild-card round but lost three consecutive heart-wrenching ones to the Astros in the division series, the last one an 18-inning shutout. In 2023, they flamed out in September and were eliminated on the penultimate day of the regular season. In 2024, they blew a 10-game lead in the division and were eliminated with three games left.

“These last two years have felt really long,” Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh said. “Not going back, it’s been hurtful. A lot of pain.”

That struggle, some of the players believe, helped produce this moment.

“Those years served its purpose — to get us stronger,” Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez said. “To get us in a better position. To grow.”

Raleigh at one point put his arm around Jerry Dipoto, Mariners president of baseball operations, lamented how they had just played eight innings of bad baseball, then shifted the focus. “Let’s go win the World Series,” Raleigh recalled saying.

“We wanna do all of ’em — and a big one in the end,” Josh Naylor said as the Mariners celebrated their first postseason clinch since 2022. “With a nice parade around the city.” Steph Chambers/Getty Images

For seven innings, the Mariners’ offense lagged against a Rockies pitching staff that possesses the highest ERA in the major leagues. They trailed 3-1 heading into the bottom of the eighth, but Rockies reliever Juan Mejia started the inning by plunking Luke Raley. J.P. Crawford followed with a walk, but Randy Arozarena and Raleigh struck out. Rodriguez then took a 1-2, 97.5 mph fastball off his left elbow guard, to load the bases.

Three pitches later, Naylor — slashing .292/.333/.486 since being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 24, seven days before Suarez also came over from the D-backs — sent a 2-0 fastball into the left-center-field gap, scoring Rodriguez from first base.

“It felt like two seconds,” Rodriguez said. “It felt like two seconds for me, honestly. As soon as I saw him hit the ball in the gap, I just started running.”

Andres Munoz, the Mariners’ lights-out closer, breezed through the ninth, sending a T-Mobile Park crowd of 35,925 into jubilation. The Mariners improved to 49-27 at home. Their lead over the Astros has stretched to four games with five left. Their lead over the surging Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers, suddenly tied in the AL Central, is at three games for a first-round bye.

It has been nearly a quarter century since the Mariners won a playoff game at home.

They want as many as they can get this year.

“We want to play at home,” Rodriguez said. “I don’t want to leave my neighborhood to play.”

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September 24, 2025 0 comments

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Yankees clinch playoff spot with walk-off win, close gap in AL East

by admin September 24, 2025

Jorge CastilloSep 24, 2025, 12:59 AM ET
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NEW YORK — José Caballero, a Yankee for all of 54 days, proudly carried a championship belt — given to the player of the game after every New York victory — around his left shoulder as alcohol-soaked chaos raged around him in the home clubhouse Tuesday night.

Acquired at the trade deadline to provide a versatile spark off the bench, the utility infielder fulfilled his duties to the max for the distinction: An inning after entering the game as a pinch-runner, Caballero swatted a two-out, walk-off single on the ninth pitch of his at-bat to lift the Yankees to a 2-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox and clinch the 60th postseason berth in franchise history.

“This is the best time to have the belt,” Caballero said, “and I’m not letting it go.”

Coupled with the Toronto Blue Jays’ loss to the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees moved within a game of first place in the American League East with five games remaining. Toronto, however, holds the tiebreaker over New York. The Yankees would have to surpass the Blue Jays in the standings by the end of Sunday to claim their 22nd division title and earn a bye into the ALDS to begin their pursuit of a second consecutive AL pennant after falling to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series last season.

“This is the best time to have the belt,” José Caballero, acquired by the Yankees at the trade deadline, said after delivering a two-out, walk-off single Tuesday night to clinch the 60th postseason berth in franchise history, “and I’m not letting it go.” Al Bello/Getty Images

“This October we’re coming to prove a point,” Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. said.

For now, the Yankees are guaranteed their eighth postseason appearance over the past nine years and their 26th trip in the 32 seasons since the playoffs were expanded to eight teams in 1994. Their magic number to clinch the top AL wild card spot — and guarantee home-field advantage in a three-game wild-card series — is three. The Yankees have not played in a wild-card series since it was first implemented in 2022.

“The ultimate goal is to win our division,” Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge said as teammates bathed him with MVP chants and showered him with alcohol. “It’s still right there for us. So, we’re excited about getting in, but we got bigger things ahead of us.”

The Yankees, despite boasting the third-most expensive roster in baseball, entered the season with pressing questions after losing Juan Soto to the Mets in free agency and Gerrit Cole to a season-ending UCL tear in spring training.

What followed has, so far, been a three-chapter tale. Their 42-25 record to start the season through June 12 was third best in the majors. From there, they went 22-31 through Aug. 12, tied for the seventh-worst mark in baseball. They then went 25-12 since Aug. 13, the best record in the majors, to ignite Tuesday’s celebration and cut the Blue Jays’ division lead by five games.

Challenges surfaced throughout the season. Oswaldo Cabrera’s gruesome season-ending knee injury in May opened a gaping hole at third base that wasn’t addressed until the trade deadline. Giancarlo Stanton didn’t make his season debut until mid-June as he dealt with tendon injuries in both elbows. Clarke Schmidt, another rotation stalwart, joined Cole on the list of Tommy John surgery recipients in July. Luis Gil missed the season’s first four months with a lat injury.

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Anthony Volpe’s struggles at shortstop and in the batter’s box drew consistent boos all summer and, eventually, a dip in playing time. Devin Williams, acquired over the winter, lost his job as closer twice. Veterans DJ LeMahieu and Marcus Stroman were designated for assignment.

And, finally, the latest major blow: The flexor strain Judge suffered in his right arm in late July, which forced a 10-day trip to the injured list to interrupt his MVP-level campaign, limited him to designated hitter for a month upon his return, and has cast doubt over his ability to unleash full-effort throws from right field.

“It’s been a challenging year, no question about it,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “But, at my core, and especially as we got here to the final couple months and then we got to the final month, I’m looking around in there and knowing that we’re pretty healthy and getting guys back … I [felt] like our best baseball was absolutely ahead of us and, hopefully, even still is ahead of us.

“But I think we’re a really good club. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but I’ll certainly take our chances up against anyone.”

The Yankees overcame the obstacles with a combination of internal development and external additions.

“This October we’re coming to prove a point,” said second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. The Yankees are in pursuit of a second consecutive AL pennant after falling to the Dodgers in the World Series last year. John Jones/Imagn Images

Trent Grisham emerged as the everyday center fielder with a career year. Cody Bellinger, acquired over the offseason to compensate for Soto’s departure, gave the Yankees the left-handed bat they needed behind Judge while providing elite defense at four positions. Ben Rice solidified himself as a potent power hitter and a catcher the Yankees can trust. Rookie Cam Schlittler joined the rotation in July, just before the All-Star break, and didn’t relinquish his rotation spot. Chisholm became the third Yankee to ever post a 30/30 season.

And at the deadline, general manager Brian Cashman, recognizing the roster was clunky and short on relievers, acquired three position players for more roster versatility and four right-handers to overhaul the bullpen.

“The depth is very impressive,” Bellinger said. “Just the type of guys we got here, man. The culture here is very impressive, is very fun to be a part of. And we just believe in each other.”

One of those position players added on the final day in July starred when it mattered most Tuesday night, putting together the kind of at-bat that wins games in October to send the Yankees to the postseason again for another chance at World Series title No. 28.

“We are coming for the big thing,” Caballero said.

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September 24, 2025 0 comments

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WNBA playoff schedule 2025: How to watch first-round games

by admin September 17, 2025

Sep 16, 2025, 09:45 PM ET

The WNBA playoffs are finally here!

The first round tipped off Sunday with four games — and three of the top four seeds came out with resounding victories.

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On Tuesday, the Indiana Fever held court to stave off an elimination game and send its series with the Atlanta Dream to a decisive Game 3.

The best-of-three first round is a 1-1-1 format, with the higher seed hosting Game 1 and, if necessary, Game 3. The semifinals is a best-of-five 2-2-1 setup, with the higher seed hosting Games 1, 2 and 5.

For the first time, the WNBA Finals — which are scheduled to open Oct. 3 — will expand to a best-of-seven series (2-2-1-1-1) in which the higher seed would host Games 1, 2, 5 and 7.

We’ll update each series as games are played and each round as matchups are decided.

Jump to round:
First Round | Semifinals | WNBA Finals

MORE: Strengths, flaws for every team | Top 25 players in the postseason

FIRST ROUND

Game 1: Lynx 101, Valkyries 72
Game 2: Lynx at Valkyries, Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 3*: Valkyries at Lynx, Friday, TBD, ESPN2

Game 1: Aces 102, Storm 77
Game 2: Aces at Storm, Tuesday, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 3*: Storm at Aces, Thursday, TBD, ESPN2

Game 1: Dream 80, Fever 68
Game 2: Fever 77, Dream 60
Game 3: Fever at Dream, Thursday, TBD, ESPN2

Game 1: Liberty 76, Mercury 69
Game 2: Mercury at Liberty, Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 3*: Liberty at Mercury, Friday, TBD, ESPN2

* If necessary

SEMIFINALS

Sunday, Sept. 21

Game 1: 3 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 1: 5 p.m. ET (ESPN)

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Tuesday, Sept. 23

Game 2: 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 2: 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Friday, Sept. 26

Game 3: 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Game 3: 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Sunday, Sept. 28

Game 4*: 1 or 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 4*: 3 p.m. ET (ABC)

Tuesday, Sept. 30

Game 5*: TBD (TBD)
Game 5*: TBD (TBD)

* If necessary

WNBA FINALS

Friday, Oct. 3

Game 1: 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Sunday, Oct. 5

Game 2: 3 p.m. ET (ABC)

Wednesday, Oct. 8

Game 3: 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Friday, Oct. 10

Game 4: 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Sunday, Oct. 12

Game 5*: 3 p.m. ET (ABC)

Wednesday, Oct. 15

Game 6*: 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Friday, Oct. 17

Game 7*: 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

* If necessary

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September 17, 2025 0 comments

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MLB execs, insiders on 2025 playoff favorites, biggest threats

by admin September 15, 2025

Jesse RogersSep 15, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
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The MLB playoffs are just around the corner and shaping up to be a wide-open affair. For the second consecutive season, there is not a single team on pace to win 100 or more games. That means there is plenty of parity across the majors, which is bound to carry over to October.

With that in mind, we asked 19 baseball players, executives and scouts: Who is the team to beat in the National League? And who is the team to beat in the American League?

There was little uniformity to their answers, though most agreed on one thing: a sleeper team that people in both leagues agreed could make a run in October. Here’s how those in the game view the upcoming postseason.

The NL’s team to beat is …

(Phillies, 5; Dodgers, 4; Padres, 2; Mets, 1)

Voting was as tight as you might imagine, considering the Brewers are mixed in with the defending champion Dodgers and high-priced Phillies. Those teams dominated our poll, leaving few votes for anyone else.

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All three teams can slug their way to the World Series, but the Dodgers have a distinct advantage in the power game, outhomering both Philadelphia and Milwaukee by a wide margin this regular season. However, Philly employs easily the best closer of the three — a crucial element that could help finish off those tight October games.

Still, it was the Brewers who won our poll because they’ve played at such a high level in all areas while also possessing a deep and healthy starting staff.

Why the Brewers

NL player: “They seem like a team that has a really solid plan and cohesive approach. And they seem like they’re on the same page. I just like how they play. And they’ve done it all year; why can’t they keep it going?”

NL scout: “They still have to figure out the back end of their pen, but in a short series, they have the luxury of sending one of their good starters to the bullpen. And they might just run into enough home runs to keep pace in October.”

NL exec: “Getting the bye will be huge for them. They’ve been knocked out in those short series several times; this will let them breathe a bit. Plus, their starting staff is so good. If I’m Milwaukee, I want the longer series.”

Biggest threats to Brewers

Philadelphia Phillies

NL player: “It’s simple for me. They still have good pitching, and they’ve been there before. Playoffs are about home runs, and they can hit them.”

NL player: “Their lineup is a little top-heavy, but they have enough at the bottom that can do the job. If those guys show up, then that lineup is really good. Their pen is incredible with [Jhoan] Duran.”

NL exec: “It’s their last hurrah, right? They have older players, some of whom will be free agents at the end of the season. I just can’t see [Bryce] Harper going his career without a ring, and this is their best chance, even without [Zack] Wheeler.”

Los Angeles Dodgers

NL player: “When we played them, they didn’t have a good series, but they seem to turn it on when they need to. That’s the sign of a champion. I think their offense will have a big October and lead them like it did last year.”

NL exec: “Talent will win out, and they have the potential for healthiest pitching staff all year in October.”

If not Milwaukee, Philadelphia or Los Angeles, then who?

Truth be told, these insiders responded before the latest Mets free fall became so dramatic — New York was on an eight-game losing streak that ended with an extra-innings win over Texas on Sunday. But, hey, anyone can get hot at the right time, right? The Mets proved that last year. But they have to prove they can even get into the October party before they can think about making a deep run.

MLB playoff tracker: Who can clinch next?

From current playoff matchups to league races to the postseason schedule, we’ve got you covered. Everything to know »

The Padres are hard to figure out, but that doesn’t make them less dangerous than any other contender. Some days, their offense goes into hibernation, but they can shut anyone down in the late innings. Their bullpen is that good and could take them far despite the loss of Jason Adam.

San Diego Padres

NL player: “I like San Diego. They’re hungry. They made all the right deadline moves. And they have the experience of getting close but not going all the way.”

NL exec: “There’s a lot to like about San Diego, but they can still be pitched to even with their deadline additions. It’s like they disappear sometimes. If they survive a wild-card round and get some home games, Petco [Park]’s energy could wake them up. Still a great bullpen.”

New York Mets

NL player: “The Mets are really good. I know they’ve struggled, but I’m banking on them getting hot like they did last postseason. Sometimes you get your worst baseball behind you, then find your groove. I like the Mets to do that.”

NL scout: “Their lineup 1-9 has to carry them. I’m not sure how they’ll piece it together on the mound, but sometimes you find rookie magic in an arm or two. If two of [Nolan] McLean, [Jonah] Tong and [Brandon] Sproat can come through, why not the Mets?

The AL’s team to beat is …

(Tigers, 5; Yankees, 3; Red Sox, 3; Astros, 2)

The voting was even tighter in the AL than in the NL — four teams received three or more votes — but it was the Blue Jays who edged out the competition with just one more vote than Detroit.

Home-field advantage could make the difference for the AL’s top two teams, both of whom dominate at home but hover around .500 on the road. The Tigers play so well at Comerica Park, where they are able to run rampant on the bases and go first to third on teams. And, of course, they feature Tarik Skubal at the top of their rotation. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays can get the newly renovated Rogers Centre rocking as hard as any stadium in the majors. That top seed in the AL is up for grabs down the stretch — and one of these two teams is highly likely to get it.

Why the Blue Jays

AL player: “They’re one of the most rounded teams in the AL. They have some experience, especially in the rotation, and have a little bit of everything in the lineup. That’s tough to contend with in a series. I just think they have the most complete team.”

AL scout: “As good as [Bo] Bichette, Vlad [Guerrero Jr.] and [George] Springer have been, it’s the contributions from guys from the left side of the plate like [Nathan] Lukes and [Addison] Barger which make Toronto really dangerous. They have some balance, which has eluded them.”

AL exec: “I love their team, but I question their bullpen. It hasn’t been very stout in the second half. Tommy Nance might be a guy to lean on.”

Biggest threat to Blue Jays: Detroit Tigers

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AL player: “Detroit is high up on that list [of teams to beat]. They know how to win. That’s the biggest thing. They proved that last offseason. And they’ve turned that park into a nice home-field advantage. I know they go first to third better than anyone. That’s a key, playing in that ballpark.”

AL scout: “Sometimes seeing a team play a lot you can get a more negative opinion than what their record is, and sometimes it can be a more positive opinion than their record. With the Tigers, it’s the latter. And they already have a pretty good record.”

AL exec: “I’ve tried to fill out playoff rotations without a true ace. It’s really tough. So having Tarik Skubal makes all the difference for me. Unless he runs out of gas, Detroit is my pick.”

If not Toronto or Detroit, then who?

A case can be made for any of the wild-card entrants — depending on where Houston finishes, as it remains in a tight division battle with Seattle — to pull off an October upset with big game experience oozing from the Astros and Yankees lineups. New York can also slug, of course, while the return of Yordan Alvarez makes Houston’s offense ever so dangerous again.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have made the postseason only once (2021) since winning the World Series in 2018. However, they feature a balanced lineup with playoff leadership in the form of Alex Bregman. Plus, Aroldis Chapman is about as good as it gets on the closer front.

New York Yankees

AL exec: “I think their bullpen will get hot, and [they] have enough power bats to get through a weaker field in the AL.”

Boston Red Sox

AL player: “It’s the Red Sox. They are playing good baseball. They have formidable pitching starting with [Garrett] Crochet and their lineup is cohesive and looks like they have a good time together. They know how to win with Bregman there.”

Houston Astros

AL player: “Everyone is forgetting that Yordan Alvarez missed most of the season. He’s a difference-maker. And when we played them, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown were as good as any two pitchers. Houston is my pick.”

Everyone’s October sleeper pick: Seattle Mariners

Until recently, the Mariners hadn’t shown the league their best hand, ending up in the sleeper category because of it. Those we spoke to said Seattle simply has more upside available to it than any other team.

AL player: “A team that can get really hot that isn’t playing its best baseball is Seattle. That pitching staff is legit. [Cal] Raleigh hit 50 [home runs] but they have other guys that are built for that moment — the spotlight moment. Randy Arozarena and [Eugenio] Suarez are two of them. They’re built to win late.”

MLB most exciting player bracket

Ohtani or De La Cruz? We narrow the field — with a rep from every team — to one true must-watch player. Bracket »

NL player: “It’s one of those lineups where everyone is waiting for them to put it all together. Their rotation is very talented, and they have one of the best closers in the league. I think they’re one of those teams that, if they get hot at the right time, no one can beat them.”

AL exec: “Seattle has one of its best teams we’ve seen there in years. If there is a real sleeper in this entire playoff field, it’s the Seattle Mariners.”

AL exec: “Seattle is my ‘surprise’ team. I think a bad year for pitching in Seattle could get flipped on its head in the postseason with their starters picking it up.”

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September 15, 2025 0 comments

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MLB playoff tracker 2025: Clinching scenarios, bracket, schedule

by admin September 12, 2025

Sep 11, 2025, 09:00 AM ET

A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season continues.

The Detroit Tigers are pretty much a postseason lock with a whopping lead in the AL Central, and the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers are comfortably sitting atop their respective divisions.

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Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the first team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?

We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.

Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings

Who can clinch a playoff spot next?

The Brewers’ magic number is two, which means they could clinch a playoff spot in the coming days.

The Tigers, Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres all have at least a 98% chance of making the postseason.

What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?

American League

Wild-card round: (6) Mariners at (3) Astros, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees

ALDS: Mariners/Astros vs. (2) Tigers, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays

National League

Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs

NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers

Breaking down the AL race

The Blue Jays and Tigers enter the homestretch battling for the AL’s No. 1 seed, with Detroit all but a lock for the AL Central crown. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And, in what seems to be a yearly September occurrence, the Houston Astros are attempting to separate themselves from the Seattle Mariners in a two-team AL West race. Meanwhile, a Seattle swoon has allowed the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians to remain within striking distance for the final wild-card spot.

And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:

Breaking down the NL race

A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets trying to keep a comfortable lead over the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot. The Phillies and Brewers are seemingly cruising to division titles, but there is plenty of intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.

And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:

Game of the day

Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:

Playoff schedule

Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium

Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*

Division series
Best of five

ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*

NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*

League championship series
Best of seven

ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*

NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*

World Series
Best of seven

Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*

* If necessary

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September 12, 2025 0 comments

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2025 NFL season sim: Predictions, surprises, playoff teams

by admin September 3, 2025

Seth WalderSep 1, 2025, 06:30 AM ET
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If you don’t want spoilers for the 2025 NFL season, look away.

I typically write about the NFL in terms of probabilities — the chance the Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions, the probability the Bengals get back to the playoffs, the odds the Browns are actually the best team in football (OK, maybe not that one).

But every so often, we need to inject certainty into a forecast. After all, the upcoming NFL season will play out only one way. So why not simulate the season one time and see what happens?

That’s what we’re doing here. We’re detailing the story of a single simulation from ESPN’s Football Power Index, which normally uses 10,000 simulations to build its projections. To be clear, this is not my prediction or ESPN Analytics’ prediction of how this season will unfold. (Vikings fans still in my mentions about Minnesota’s 4-13 record in last year’s simulation — please read that sentence.) This is simply simulation No. 4,091 — what definitely, absolutely, certainly could happen in 2025. Let’s play it out.

See FPI’s full projections for the 2025 season

Both Super Bowl LIX teams miss playoffs

Eleven months after the Chiefs and Eagles squared off in Super Bowl LIX, both teams cleaned out their lockers following Week 18. Neither managed to make it back to the playoffs, easily the shocker of the 2025 campaign in this simulation.

The Eagles were actually done before the final week. Thought to be infallible heading into the season, the Eagles were 5-4 after Week 10 — a game behind the Cowboys but still seemingly in control of their postseason destiny. But that turned into a 6-8 record, leaving Philadelphia in pure panic mode. In the end, the Eagles couldn’t make up the gap, falling short in the NFC East and wild-card battle.

Sim playoff race check-in: Records through Week 15

RecordAFCNFC10-4Bills9-5Colts, TitansFalcons8-6Ravens, Broncos,
Dolphins, ChargersCardinals, Bears,
Lions, Packers,
Vikings, 49ers,
Rams7-7Bengals, Chiefs,
RaidersCowboys, Buccaneers,
Commanders6-8Patriots, TexansPanthers, Eagles,
Seahawks5-9Browns, Jaguars,
SteelersGiants4-10Jets3-11Saints

The Chiefs’ collapse was much more startling. Kansas City controlled its destiny in the AFC West after beating the Broncos on Christmas Day to improve to 9-7. It needed to only to beat the Raiders to secure its 11th straight playoff spot. But Patrick Mahomes’ clutch gene was nowhere to be found as the Chiefs fell 28-19, allowing the Broncos — who won their Week 18 game — to win the division on a tiebreaker. No wild-card bid for the Chiefs either.

The two defending conference champions weren’t the only surprising teams to miss the playoffs in 2025. The Commanders, 49ers and Packers all missed the postseason, too.

Aaron Rodgers experiment fails, Mike Tomlin has first losing record

The Steelers’ bid for the aging superstar quarterback was always a long shot upside play. Ultimately, the poor play that started in Green Bay in 2022 and continued in New York in 2024 couldn’t be reversed.

Things started OK. Rodgers got his revenge on the Jets in Week 1, and a 3-2 start prompted optimism. But a five-game losing streak hit, with losses to the Bengals, Packers, Colts, Chargers and Bengals again. At that point, it was clear that the Steelers’ season — and Rodgers’ career — was over.

Broncos steal AFC West crown

The AFC West wasn’t so tough after all. Despite optimism from all four teams entering the season, no one separated from the pack or put up a gaudy record. But someone had to prevail.

Denver became the first team in a decade to dethrone the Chiefs from their AFC West crown. Tied with the Chargers at 8-8 entering Week 18, the Broncos secured the division title with an 18-15 win over Justin Herbert, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers.

The win was indicative of the Broncos’ strengths, as the offense provided just enough help for a smothering defense. Denver finished the season ranked first in defensive EPA per play.

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Cowboys win surprise NFC East title

Like in the AFC West, it wasn’t that another team took the division crown from the Eagles as much as Philadelphia being sucked into the division’s overall mediocrity. And when the Eagles stumbled, Dallas took advantage.

Maybe we shouldn’t be that surprised that the Cowboys made the playoffs (even if winning the division seemed unlikely). Though the preseason chatter was all about Micah Parsons and his eventual trade, the remaining foundation of this team still included Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Considering Prescott finished second in QBR in 2023, Dallas was always capable of having a quality offense, and it was good enough in this case to make up for missing Parsons. Young pass rushers Donovan Ezeiruaku and Sam Williams stepping up helped, too.

In the end, the Cowboys won the division with a 9-8 record, though they fizzled again in the postseason with a wild-card loss.

Colts win AFC South; Titans earn wild card

Even in a season when the Chiefs and Eagles missed the playoffs, what happened in the AFC South turned heads. Somehow, Colts coach Shane Steichen unlocked the 2022 version of Daniel Jones, leaning on the legs of the former Giants quarterback while Lou Anarumo and the new-look secondary turned around the defense. The result was a 10-7 record and playoff berth.

But the real AFC South story was the red-hot start of Cam Ward and the Titans. Tennessee began the season 9-3 as Ward took the league by storm. He was the talk of the NFL through 13 weeks and had a lock on the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. But the Titans proceeded to rattle off a five-game losing streak as the league caught up to the rookie QB, and Tennessee limped into the playoffs with a 9-8 record.

While the Colts stole the division from the Titans, Tennessee was able to turn the tables in the wild-card round. The result? A 34-13 blowout in Tennessee’s favor at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Ravens edge Bengals for AFC North title

With the Browns and Steelers nonfactors, it was clear by midseason that the AFC North would come down to Baltimore and Cincinnati. The race peaked in Week 15, when the two teams — then tied at 7-6 — squared off for their second meeting.

It was a classic in Baltimore. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson traded big throws against seemingly helpless defenses — the quarterbacks combined for an outrageous eight touchdown passes. But the Ravens finally got the stop they needed, and rookie Tyler Loop finished off the Bengals with a 43-yard field goal as time expired to give the Ravens a 41-38 victory. The win put Baltimore up a game in the standings and also gave it a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bengals. It was needed, as the Ravens and Bengals both finished 10-7.

The lack of home-field advantage proved costly for the Bengals, who lost a wild-card heartbreaker in Denver 35-32. The Ravens took advantage of playing at home, dispatching the Dolphins 34-17 in the wild-card round and the Broncos 24-22 in the divisional round to go to the AFC Championship Game.

Cardinals win a playoff game

With all the surprise NFC playoff misses, spots were available. And the Cardinals were one of the upstarts that took advantage. Arizona had a good, but not great, 9-8 season in which quarterback Kyler Murray played quite well, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. took a small step forward and the defense was mediocre. That was enough for a wild-card berth, and the Cardinals made some postseason noise.

Arizona routed the NFC South champion Falcons 35-14. Playoff Josh Sweat sacked Michael Penix Jr. multiple times, while Murray threw two touchdown passes to Zay Jones. But the Cardinals didn’t carry that momentum into their divisional round matchup with the Vikings, losing 28-22 when their attempted game-winning drive stalled out in the final minute.

Saints get first overall pick, prompting Arch watch

Sometimes preseason expectations hold. FPI predicted the Saints to be the worst team in football, and they were just that. The easy schedule worked in their favor, too. New Orleans was tied with the Jets and Browns for the worst record at 5-12, but it earned the No. 1 pick on the schedule-strength tiebreaker.

Before the season, Archie Manning predicted that his grandson Arch Manning would remain with Texas for the 2026 season. But when the Saints — Archie’s former team — earned the first overall pick, speculation about the youngest Manning speeding up his NFL timetable began to grow.

Final simulation regular-season standings

AFCNFCEastWLTEastWLTBills*1340Cowboys*980Dolphins#980Eagles890Patriots7100Commanders7100Jets5120Giants6110NorthWLTNorthWLTRavens*1070Lions*1160Bengals#1070Vikings#1070Steelers7100Bears980Browns5120Packers890SouthWLTSouthWLTColts*1070Falcons*1070Titans#980Buccaneers#980Texans980Panthers6110Jaguars890Saints5120WestWLTWestWLTBroncos*980Rams*1160Chiefs980Cardinals#980Raiders89049ers980Chargers890Seahawks890* – won division# – qualified for playoffs

No. 7 seed Buccaneers go on unlikely Super Bowl run

For much of the season, the Buccaneers looked like a mild disappointment, as quarterback Baker Mayfield couldn’t quite match his 2024 success with new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. Entering Week 18, Tampa Bay sat at 8-8 on the outside looking in at the playoffs — a game out of the NFC South and wild-card berths. The Bucs needed that final week to break their way, and it did.

The division was out of reach once the Falcons beat the Saints, but the Buccaneers kept their playoff hopes alive with a 20-15 victory over the Panthers. They got the help they needed, with the 49ers losing to the Seahawks 24-17 and the Bears falling to the Lions 38-9. That allowed Tampa Bay to grab the last wild-card spot with a 9-8 record.

The Bucs entered the playoffs with low expectations but shocked No. 2-seeded Detroit 27-24 in the wild-card round, keyed by a Yaya Diaby sack and a deflection of a Jared Goff pass that was intercepted. Tampa Bay then surprised the top-seeded Rams 27-22 in the divisional round thanks to a clinical Mayfield performance. Todd Bowles’ defense got the job done in the NFC Championship Game, confusing J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings and winning 28-13. Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving had big days, and the Bucs were Super Bowl bound — where they met the Bills.

In a wild NFC playoffs, five of six road teams won their matchups. Here’s how the overall postseason played out leading into the Super Bowl:

Wild-card round

(AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 7 Dolphins 34-17

(AFC) No. 6 Titans def. No. 3 Colts 34-13

(AFC) No. 4 Broncos def. No. 5 Bengals 35-32

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 2 Lions 27-24

(NFC) No. 6 Cardinals def. No. 3 Falcons 35-14

(NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 4 Cowboys 10-9

Divisional round

(AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 6 Titans 28-14

(AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 4 Broncos 24-22

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 1 Rams 27-22

(NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 6 Cardinals 28-22

Conference championships

(AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 2 Ravens 24-20

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 5 Vikings 28-13

Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton, Bills quarterback Josh Allen, Commanders coach Dan Quinn and Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. ESPN

Bills win Super Bowl LX

Bills Mafia, rejoice. Buffalo really did it. After coming up short four times in a row in the early 1990s and then knocking on the door in recent years with Josh Allen, the Bills finally burst through with a statement win.

Buffalo was the best team in the regular season, winning 13 games to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Allen won his second straight MVP award — no controversy this time — and the Lombardi Trophy was considered Buffalo’s to lose.

The Bills’ No. 1 seed earned them a divisional round matchup against a plucky Titans team that wasn’t ready for the moment. The Bills won 28-14. The real test came in the AFC Championship Game — the last game ever in Highmark Stadium.

With snow flurries falling in true Buffalo fashion, the Bills hosted their fiercest challenger, the Ravens. Allen put on a top-tier performance, recording a 91 QBR and throwing a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown pass to tight end Dalton Kincaid. Allen and the Bills outdueled Jackson and the Ravens 24-20 to advance to Super Bowl LX.

The betting market pegged the Bills as 7.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers, which was more than enough. The Bills opened with a two-score lead in the first eight minutes on a 56-yard touchdown run by James Cook. It didn’t get closer, so Allen hardly needed to make big plays. Cook took home Super Bowl LX MVP with his three touchdowns, and the Bills were finally victorious, trouncing Tampa Bay 55-23.

ESPN senior sports analytics engineer Hank Gargiulo contributed to this article.

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September 3, 2025 0 comments

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Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 1

by admin September 1, 2025

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Following his team’s 14-7 loss at Ohio State on Saturday, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian summed up one of the biggest changes in competing for a national title in the era of the 12-team College Football Playoff.

“The days of a national champion being undefeated are over,” he said, “especially when you play in games like this and you play in the conference we play in.”

Week 1’s blockbuster matchups guaranteed at least one playoff contender was going down, but the Longhorns weren’t alone. Alabama lost. Clemson lost. Boise State lost. Notre Dame lost. And though there’s plenty of time to recover, the early results already shook up the playoff pecking order. Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

Jump to:
Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Garrett Nussmeier and LSU made a statement on the road. Imagn Images

Why they could be here: Throw out the preseason rankings and everything you thought you knew about the best teams in college football. Nobody made a bigger Week 1 statement, on the road against a team capable of winning the ACC and competing for a spot in the playoff. The committee starts from scratch, and LSU showed all of the components it looks for — from a Heisman hopeful in quarterback Garrett Nussmeier to a defense that proved it can play at an elite level.

Why they could be lower: While the committee insists it starts from scratch, some might give the reigning national champion Ohio State the benefit of the doubt — whether it’s intentional or not. The Buckeyes played a complete game under first-year starting quarterback Julian Sayin. It was also a clean game, with only two penalties and no turnovers, plus a defensive effort that was the difference in the game.

Need to know: If LSU and Clemson don’t lock up playoff spots as conference champions, Saturday’s LSU win could be critical for seeding in the at-large spots. The higher seed gets home-field advantage, and the top four seeds earn first-round byes. Even if LSU doesn’t win the SEC — and Clemson wins the ACC — there could be a scenario in which LSU is still ranked ahead because of Week 1.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. Alabama’s performance in its loss to Florida State makes the trip to Tuscaloosa seem less daunting. Though that game is a coin toss, ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 70.1% chance to beat LSU.

Why they could be here: The Buckeyes beat one of the SEC’s top teams, and they did it with a first-year starting quarterback, but it was at home against a Texas team that didn’t live up to its preseason ranking.

Why they could be higher: Ohio State and LSU had similar performances in that they won with defense and faced offenses that struggled, so it would probably boil down to which opponent the committee thought was more talented.

Need to know: The Buckeyes are projected to win each of their remaining games, and they have the best chance in the FBS to win out (11.2%).

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Nittany Lions are loaded and hired former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. PSU coach James Franklin said his program wants to “change the narrative” about its inability to win the biggest games.

Malachi Tony and Miami got a top-10 win to open the season. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Why they could be here: The Canes beat a CFP contender that didn’t quit, earning one of the top nonconference wins of Week 1 and probably the whole season. Transfer quarterback Carson Beck had a strong performance, but equally as important was Miami’s defensive improvement. That was a sticking point in the committee meeting room last year and played a role in keeping the Canes out of the playoff.

Why they could be lower: Nobody ranked behind Miami has a better nonconference win, so it would be about the committee believing other teams looked better in their first game.

Need to know: The state of Florida will have a huge impact on the CFP race, and Miami doesn’t leave it until November. It will have home-field advantage against South Florida and Florida, and the Hurricanes travel to Tallahassee to play rival FSU on Oct. 4.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. Given how the Noles played in their win against Alabama, this rivalry game suddenly looks more daunting.

Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions might be the best team in the country, but they don’t earn the top spot by hammering Nevada. The selection committee rewards the teams that beat the best competition.

Why they could be lower: Florida State beat Alabama while Penn State manhandled an overmatched, unranked Mountain West Conference team. Other teams beat better competition.

Need to know: Penn State’s nonconference lineup also includes Florida International and Villanova, which will be a factor if the Nittany Lions lose to Oregon and Ohio State. A 10-2 Penn State team isn’t a lock if it loses its two best chances to impress the committee — and there are other contenders with two or fewer losses and better wins. Strength of schedule still matters.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 61.2% chance to win — the only game on Penn State’s schedule it’s not expected to win.

Micahi Danzy and Florida State stunned the college football world in Week 1. Melina Myers/Imagn Images

Why they could be here: Florida State outmuscled one of the SEC’s top programs, giving FSU one of the best Week 1 wins. Still, some committee members will question how good Alabama is this year.

Why they could be higher: This wasn’t a fluke. The Seminoles controlled the line of scrimmage and were the more physical team. FSU racked up more than 200 yards on the ground, with over 100 yards inside and outside the tackles. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos gave the Noles a true dual threat, and FSU’s defense smothered rookie Bama quarterback Ty Simpson.

Need to know: FSU still faces rivals Miami and Florida this season, and also travels to Clemson, but plays five of its first six games at home.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. This has been a game that has helped determine who plays for the ACC title — and it’s certainly possible they could meet again in the conference championship game.

Why they could be here: The Bulldogs looked dominant in their 45-7 victory over Marshall, but it was a home game against an overmatched opponent, and Georgia did what a playoff team should do. Georgia got a strong performance from first-year starting quarterback Gunner Stockton, who accounted for four touchdowns.

Why they could be higher: Georgia played a clean game, with just two penalties and no turnovers through the first three quarters, the defense was dominant and the Bulldogs got the ground game going.

Need to know: Georgia has the second-best chance to win the SEC behind Texas (26.4%).

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns are confident their mistakes are fixable, and this game should again help determine who will play in the SEC title game — or be a sneak preview of it.

Dante Moore, left, had an impressive debut with the Ducks. Tom Hauck/Getty Images

Why they could be here: A 59-13 drubbing of Montana State won’t move the needle in the room. Still, the defending Big Ten champs continued their offensive success with first-year starting quarterback Dante Moore, who had three passing touchdowns, tied for the most in a game in his career.

Why they could be lower: This is the only team on the list that beat an FCS team, and the committee tracks wins against FCS opponents.

Need to know: Oregon avoids Ohio State and Michigan this year in the Big Ten schedule.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. Both teams should be undefeated heading into this game — it will be critical to the CFP and Big Ten rankings — and it will be an unforgiving environment on the other side of the country. It’s the only game ESPN’s FPI projects Oregon to lose.

Why they could be here: New quarterback Joey Aguilar looked comfortable executing coach Josh Heupel’s offense against a respectable Syracuse team, notching a nonconference win that would earn respect in the committee meeting room. This was a complete performance, evidenced by an offensive AND defensive touchdown in the first quarter. The Vols made an early statement that they’ll be just fine without quarterback Nico Iamaleava — at least against an average opponent.

Why they could be higher: The committee could reward the Vols for a win against an ACC team over Georgia and Oregon playing lesser opponents.

Need to know: The Vols have the fourth-best chance in the SEC to reach the playoff (49.9%) behind Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 13 vs. Georgia. ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs a 60% chance to win.

Why they could be here: This was a tough loss on the road to a talented team, but Notre Dame’s slow start to the second half on both sides was glaring. First-year starting quarterback CJ Carr struggled, but so did the running game, which has one of the best backs in the country in Jeremiyah Love. Miami looked like the better team, had more explosive plays and started the second half by pushing Notre Dame’s defense down the field while controlling the clock.

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Why they could be lower: The committee could give South Carolina more credit for its win and stronger quarterback play.

Need to know: Because the top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions, Notre Dame can earn a first-round bye if it finishes in the selection committee’s top four. The Irish should be cheering for the Canes the rest of the season because a road loss to the ACC champs could be one of the better losses among contenders.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. The Irish will get home-field advantage against their rivals, and ESPN’s FPI gives them a 58.6% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The Longhorns aren’t out of the playoff just because they lost a close road game to one of the best teams in the country. They had opportunities to win the game. They need an answer, though, to the red zone woes, and to extract more from the passing game. The selection committee won’t punish Texas for losing to Ohio State, but it will ding the Longhorns for playing poorly.

Why they could be lower: There are Hall of Fame coaches and players in the committee meeting room, and there’s no sugarcoating quarterback Arch Manning’s poor debut. This game wasn’t an instant classic. It was kind of a dud, and Texas didn’t convince anyone it’s a lock for the SEC title.

Need to know: Texas doesn’t face another Power 4 opponent until its SEC opener at Florida, so the Longhorns should be 4-1 heading into the swamp.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. ESPN’s FPI gives the Bulldogs a 54% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The Gamecocks earned a respectable nonconference win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies are a bottom-tier ACC team that was picked to finish 11th in the preseason media poll. It was also a close game early, as South Carolina entered the half with a 10-8 lead. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers had one of the most impressive Week 1 performances by a quarterback, though, and the committee often singles out the nation’s top players. Still, it wasn’t a flawless outing, as he was sacked five times, which will be a problem against SEC defenses.

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Why they could be higher: A neutral-site win against an ACC team could get more votes from committee members than a home win against a non-Power team.

Need to know: This could be a dangerous spot on Selection Day — just ask Alabama. Because the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff, the committee’s No. 11-ranked team could get bumped out. In this scenario, the Big 12 and Group of 5 champion would enter the bracket ahead of No. 11.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at LSU. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tigers a 59.6% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The Tigers aren’t being punished for losing to a top-tier team, but they’re in the final spot because of a one-dimensional offense that was exposed by LSU’s defense. Clemson’s combination of running backs accounted for 31 yards and a measly 1.6 yards per carry. Quarterback Cade Klubnik will have to play better to beat rival South Carolina, which is ranked above in part because of a better quarterback performance.

Why they could be higher: The LSU defense deserves credit for harassing Klubnik all game. He didn’t always have the time he needed to throw, and this was hardly a blowout like last year’s season-opening loss to Georgia.

Need to know: In this scenario, Clemson would miss the playoff because it would get bumped out for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. This week, that’s projected to be South Florida.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at South Carolina. This would still be a critical head-to-head result late in the season that could help either team’s playoff position, but ESPN’s FPI gives South Carolina a 66.5% chance to win. Clemson is 0-4 against SEC teams since the start of last season.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 4 Penn State

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Florida State
No. 11 Arizona State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Tennessee

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 USF/No. 5 Florida State winner vs. No. 4 Penn State
No. 11 Arizona State/No. 6 Georgia winner vs. No. 3 Miami
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Tennessee winners vs. No. 1 LSU

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September 1, 2025 0 comments