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The Main Driver Behind BTC’s Break From Global M2, According to Raoul Pal

by admin September 25, 2025



Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, has drawn attention to a widely circulated chart that compares bitcoin’s (BTC) movements with global M2 money supply.

The chart shows that since early 2023, bitcoin has tended to track global M2 money supply with a consistent 12-week lag, implying that changes in liquidity conditions filter through to crypto markets with a three-month delay.

Based on that model, bitcoin would still be on track to approach $200,000 by the end of 2025 if the correlation were to hold.

However, since July 16, this relationship has broken down. While global M2 has continued to trend higher, reflecting ongoing monetary expansion globally, bitcoin has stalled, moving sideways through the summer despite its historically tight connection to liquidity.

TGA refill plays spoilsport

Pal argues that the break is not a failure of the model but rather the result of actions by the U.S. Treasury through its Treasury General Account (TGA). The TGA is the government’s operating account at the Federal Reserve, used to receive taxes, bond sale proceeds, and other inflows while also funding federal expenditures.

When the Treasury seeks to rebuild this account by issuing more bonds than needed to cover immediate obligations, it effectively drains liquidity from the system, reducing the pool of capital available to risk assets. According to Pal, since July, the Treasury has issued about $500 billion in bonds to replenish the TGA, pushing its balance near $800 billion, a multi-year high.

This large-scale withdrawal of cash has hit liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto the hardest, explaining bitcoin’s sideways action despite rising M2.

Importantly, Pal believes the TGA is now sufficiently replenished, meaning the liquidity drain is likely over and should fade completely by the end of the month. If that happens, liquidity conditions will normalize, and bitcoin’s braoder rally could resume following its M2-driven trajectory upward.

However, to counter Pal’s argument, it is worth noting that tech stocks and gold have continued to set new all-time highs, suggesting that broader risk appetite remains intact.

While the TGA replenishment may have weighed heavily on crypto, the sharper impact could also reflect heavy selling pressure from long-held coins, which helps explain the deviation between bitcoin and global M2.



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September 25, 2025 0 comments
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Infinity Nikki's latest update lets you build your dream home, and pal up with a Stardew Valley Junimo
Game Reviews

Infinity Nikki’s latest update lets you build your dream home, and pal up with a Stardew Valley Junimo

by admin September 2, 2025


Infinity Nikki has kicked off a surprising new cross-over with its latest update. The new patch, version 1.9, is live now, and heralds the start of a new season alongside the aforementioned collaboration.

You may have assumed that there’s already a lot of cross-over between Infinity Nikki players and Stardew Valley players. Infold Games clearly agrees, because the developer is teaming up with the farming simulator for this next event.


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Patch 1.9 arrived in the game following the usual maintenance. Some parts of the update were available to download ahead of time through the game’s launcher. 1.9 is a fairly substantial patch for Infinity Nikki, not least because of the season it comes with.

Music Season is where the Stardew Valley collaboration lives. The new season is available until September 22, and as the name suggests, there’s music and rhythm games-inspired content here.

A Junimo from the world of Stardew Valley has arrived in Miraland, befriending Nikki. The two will take part in an adventure. Complete it and you’ll earn exclusive collaboration furniture for your home, and an outfit for Nikki.

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The story of the update itself doesn’t actually revolve around Stardew Valley. Instead, it’s about Nikki coming across a brooch that belongs to the Evermelody Troupe, which sets her off on a quest to investigate. You’ll visit the Box Theater (haunted by a new enemy) as part of this, and even witness a live rehearsal.

Supporting all that are the new rhythm game mechanics, which include dancing with town NPCs. The update also adds the ability to transform into small animals to uncover clues around Miraland.

The big new gameplay feature in 1.9 is the ability to build a home in Miraland. You can create your own living space, with the help of Yardlings. This is available as part of the Set Off for a Warm Place quest, which will teach you the basics. You can save your home designs, and even share them with others using a unique code.

Before jumping in, make sure you check our updated list of Infinity Nikki codes for September.



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September 2, 2025 0 comments
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Raoul Pal Predicts Total Crypto User Base 4B By 2030.
Crypto Trends

Raoul Pal Predicts Total Crypto User Base 4B By 2030.

by admin September 1, 2025



The total number of crypto users could hit the 4 billion mark by 2030, according to former hedge fund manager and crypto bull Raoul Pal.

In an X post on Sunday, Pal shared data comparing the adoption rate of crypto users to internet users after each innovation hit 5 million users.

Pal did this by looking at the number of crypto wallets compared to the number of IP addresses.

Source: Raoul Pal

According to Pal, the total crypto user base has grown by 137% annually in nine years and has reached 659 million users by the end of 2024. In comparison, the total number of internet users hit 187 million by the end of 2000, at an annual growth rate of 76%.

Pal predicts the number of crypto users will grow by a moderate 43% next year, reaching 1 billion crypto users by 2030, or one-eighth of the global population. 

$100 trillion market capitalization

Pal’s bullish forecast further predicts that crypto’s market capitalization could cross the $100 trillion mark within the next decade and be achieved as early as 2032.

Debasement and adoption would likely be the primary catalysts for this growth, according to Pal.

“Debasement explains 90% of price action (adoption explains 100% of outperformance vs debasement),” said Pal, who is the founder and CEO of the financial knowledge and education platforms Real Vision and Global Macro Investor.

Related:  Exponential currency debasement: ‘You don’t own enough crypto, NFTs’ 

Community taps brakes on Pal’s bullish take

Some comments on Pal’s X post, however, suggest Pal could be overestimating things. 

One X user said that wallets are not a reliable source of growth, with another suggesting that a founder of a crypto project could simply open “10000 wallets and spreading coins to make it look like he has a community.”

Another user pointed out that they create a new wallet every six months and have been doing so for the past four years.

However, Pal responded, arguing that everyone has multiple IP addresses, too. 

According to the B2B digital currency platform Triple-A, there were more than 560 million crypto users by the end of 2024.

Meanwhile, an October 2024 report by Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto division indicates roughly 30 million to 60 million real crypto users monthly.

Magazine: XRP ‘cycle target’ is $20, Strategy Bitcoin lawsuit dismissed: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 24 – 30



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September 1, 2025 0 comments
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The CDC's Nightmare Interim Director Is a Peter Thiel Pal
Product Reviews

The CDC’s Nightmare Interim Director Is a Peter Thiel Pal

by admin August 29, 2025


The Center for Disease Control and Prevention is in chaotic disarray, as a slew of resignations and an unprecedented walkout of staff have roiled the agency. At the center of the controversy is the CDC’s weirdo director, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose most recent contribution to public health dialogue was a bizarre rant about what passes through his mind as he stares at children. No wonder longtime agency staffers are losing their minds.

Now, in a development that is sure to help (*sarcasm*), Jim O’Neill, Kennedy’s deputy secretary, has been selected to take over at the agency. People are freaking out about O’Neill’s nomination because, well, he’s a freak—or, at the very least, he is anomalous in regards to his espoused beliefs and career experience and how little they seem to match his new job. But, as Stat reports, the sure-fire tell that this man waves a freak flag is his deep connections to PayPal co-founder and all-around weirdo Peter Thiel.

One of the first things you notice when you check out O’Neill’s LinkedIn is just how much time he’s spent working for organizations that were created by rightwing billionaire Peter Thiel. Between 2008 and 2012, O’Neill served as the managing director of Clarium Capital Management, one of Thiel’s first hedge funds. After that, O’Neill spent nearly a decade as the managing director of Mithril Capital Management, one of Thiel’s venture capital firms, which has been responsible for funding companies like Thiel’s defense contractor, Palantir (which is also doing a lot of work for the Trump administration right now).

O’Neill was also previously a board member of Thiel’s Seasteading Institute, an organization that is devoted to the creation of autonomous floating cities that are governed by private entities rather than traditional (i.e., democratic) governments. A picture on the group’s website from 2014 shows O’Neill hanging out with dead-eyed libertarian operative Grover Norquist at Burning Man. The Seasteading Institute is run by Milton Friedman’s grandson, Patri Friedman, who is also a point person for the “Network State” movement, which Thiel is also all wrapped up in.

Frankly, O’Neill’s dense ties to Thiel are one of the less worrying things about him. Much more concerning is the wealth of information about him online that would give any sane person pause when considering whether to let him run a public health agency. For one thing, there’s an old YouTube video of him talking about how we should open up organ donation to the “free market” (there’s nothing wrong with incentivizing people to but and sell organs, right?), and he’s also a fan of Silicon Valley’s trendy new life-extension sciences (he has shared kind words about the penis-shocking, teen-blood-transfusing health guru Bryan Johnson). During the pandemic, he is said to have advocated for the use of alternative medications, like hydroxychloroquine and Joe Rogan’s favorite, ivermectin. The Seasteading Institute is run by Milton Friedman’s grandson, Patri Friedman, who is also a point person for the “Network State” movement. O’Neill also reportedly advocated for dispensing with the FDA’s mandate that drugs be deemed “effective” before they’re sold to the public. In 2014, he told a biotech group: “Let people start using them [the drugs], at their own risk.” And, of course, he wants healthcare to be a “free market” enterprise.

In short, he sounds like a complete and total nightmare and, also, the exact kind of person that RFK would want to run the CDC.

Unlike his boss, O’Neill is not a complete stranger to government, although this should offer little comfort. During the George W. Bush administration, he served in several roles at the HHS, even rising as high as principal associate deputy secretary. In that role, between 2007 and 2008, he is said to have focused his attention on food safety regulations. Then, during Trump’s first term in office, O’Neill was mulled as a potential choice to head the Food and Drug Administration. When it originally broke that Trump was considering O’Neill for this post back in 2016, Gizmodo wrote an article entitled: “Trump is Considering an Insane Silicon Valley Libertarian to Head the FDA.” At the time, much controversy was stirred up by the mere suggestion that O’Neill take the FDA role, and eventually, Trump dropped the idea. Now, unfortunately, O’Neill is going to be running an agency nearly twice as large and significantly more important, at least for the time being. Gizmodo reached out to the government for more information.



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August 29, 2025 0 comments
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Raoul Pal: XRP Undergoing 'Full Porting' Process
GameFi Guides

Raoul Pal: XRP Undergoing ‘Full Porting’ Process

by admin August 29, 2025


Raoul Pal, chief executive officer at Global Macro Investor, claims that XRP is currently in the process of “full porting.” 

The chart shared by the prominent market forecaster shows XRP forming several long-term consolidation patterns with falling wedges and descending triangles. 

Following each extended consolidation, XRP would break above to the upside.

According to Paul, the current setup actually looks similar to the two previous cycles. Hence, there is a strong reason to believe that another breakout could take place in the near future. 

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Right now, XRP appears to be approaching another breakout move after weeks of rather anemic price action.  

The previous breakouts recorded by the Ripple-linked cryptocurrency typically resulted in parabolic moves (for example, it surged from $0.20 to $2 in 2021). 

Elusive $3 level 

At press time, XRP continues to struggle to reclaim the $3 level, currently changing hands at $2.91. 

The cryptocurrency is in the red amid a broader cryptocurrency market downturn. 



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August 29, 2025 0 comments
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Crypto Vet Raoul Pal: Big Game Yet to Be Played
Crypto Trends

Crypto Vet Raoul Pal: Big Game Yet to Be Played

by admin August 24, 2025


  • Raoul Pal on altcoins: “Big game is yet to be played”
  • Ethereum (ETH) ATH signals start of altseason?

Economist and investor Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of the Real Vision media platform, shared a super-optimistic forecast for crypto. One overlooked indicator of cryptocurrency capitalization might be close to a historical breakout.

Raoul Pal on altcoins: “Big game is yet to be played”

TOTAL3, a metric of cryptocurrency market capitalization excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), is demonstrating a bullish pattern. The breakout can be massive, so the “big game is yet to be played,” investor and analyst Raoul Pal said in a tweet yesterday, on Aug. 22, 2025.

As demonstrated by Pal’s chart, an ascending triangle pattern started taking its shape in early 2021 or about five and a half years ago. In technical analysis, the ascending triangle is a bullish pattern that forms when the price breaches the upper horizontal trendline with rising volume.

The pattern has already touched the trendlines six times. Should this pattern play out, the breakout might happen in mid-2026.

Star investor Dan Tapiero, the founder, CEO and CIO of 1RoundTable Partners (1RT) and 10T Holdings (10T) managing over $1.5 billion in digital asset investments, agreed with his colleague:

Oh goodness… Insanely bullish chart. Gonna be one hell of an alt season

As displayed by Pal, the level of $1.06 trillion in equivalent is crucial for TOTAL3 to reach its breakout phase.

Ethereum (ETH) ATH signals start of altseason?

Commenting on the chart by Pal, seasoned trader Michael van der Poppe indicated that the big breakout is around the corner for altcoins.

Yesterday, on Aug. 22, 2025, Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin, finally set its new all-time high on CoinGecko at $4,889. Meanwhile, for CoinMarketCap, the 2021 ATH was registered at $4,891.

Normally, the Ethereum (ETH) price revisiting historic highs hints at liquidity flow from Bitcoin (BTC) to altcoins. With BNB and Solana (SOL) gearing up toward new records, the market might either be on the verge of altcoin season or already in the middle of it.

As of press time, Ethereum’s (ETH) price slightly retraced to $4,721 on insane trading volume of $73 billion. Ether’s price added 11% overnight, while the trading volume more than doubled.



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August 24, 2025 0 comments
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