Outflows

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Bitcoin is trading just above the $113,000 resistance level but has so far failed to sustain further upside momentum. The market finds itself in a tense and uncertain phase, leaving investors cautious as the short-term outlook remains unclear. While bulls managed to reclaim a critical level, the lack of follow-through has created hesitation among traders seeking stronger confirmation of trend direction.

Adding complexity to the picture, top analyst Darkfost highlights fresh onchain data showing BTC outflows from miners, measured on a 7-day average. These flows suggest miners are moving coins out of reserves—a move often interpreted as preparation for selling, though it can also reflect internal management or security adjustments. What makes this moment particularly notable is the record low in BTC inflows from miners.

Throughout this cycle, miner inflows have remained weak compared to previous periods, signaling that miners are holding onto more of their reserves. Still, these muted inflows underscore the broader uncertainty in the market: while miner conviction appears strong, investors remain divided on whether Bitcoin’s next major move will be higher or lower.

Bitcoin Miners Are Holding Strong

According to analyst Darkfost, the record low in BTC inflows from miners reflects a deeper shift in how mining operations are approaching this cycle. He points to several reasons, but the most important is that Bitcoin’s value and overall market capitalization continue to grow in tandem with real-world adoption.

Governments and large corporations are increasingly integrating Bitcoin into their financial strategies, lending it a level of legitimacy that reinforces confidence among miners. With the asset maturing and institutional demand rising, miners are more inclined to hold their reserves instead of rushing to liquidate them.

Bitcoin Miner Outflow (MA7) | Source: Darkfost

Another factor is the sheer price appreciation Bitcoin has achieved. Miners no longer need to sell large amounts of BTC to cover operational expenses. Even modest liquidations are sufficient to secure capital for equipment, energy, and overhead costs. This dynamic greatly reduces the constant sell pressure that characterized earlier market cycles, allowing more coins to remain off exchanges and strengthening Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative.

Darkfost also highlights the resilience miners have shown during stress periods in this cycle. While volatility has tested the market, Bitcoin’s drawdowns have been relatively mild compared to previous eras. In fact, when compared with past cycles, miners may actually be experiencing the easiest conditions they have ever faced. Strong fundamentals, higher valuations, and growing global adoption have all combined to create a cycle where miners can weather downturns with far less strain.

Ultimately, this evolving behavior underscores how Bitcoin has matured. Miners are no longer forced sellers at every dip but rather strategic holders who can afford to think long term.

Price Reclaims Critical Level

Bitcoin is trading at $113,819 after a steady climb from early September lows near $110,000. The 4-hour chart shows BTC pushing into a critical resistance zone defined by the 200 SMA at $113,781, which has capped upside attempts in recent weeks. A successful breakout and consolidation above this level could confirm bullish momentum and pave the way for a move toward $116,000 and eventually the key resistance at $123,217.

BTC consolidates around key levels | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

The 50 SMA at $111,668 and 100 SMA at $110,891 are trending upward beneath current price action, offering dynamic support and reflecting the improving short-term structure. As long as BTC holds above $112,000, the near-term bias remains constructive, with buyers gradually regaining control after weeks of sideways trading.

However, the rejection risk at the 200 SMA remains significant. If BTC fails to establish support above this level, it could slip back toward $112,000, with a break lower exposing the $110,000 support zone once again.

The chart highlights a pivotal moment for Bitcoin. Bulls have built momentum, but reclaiming and holding above the 200 SMA is critical to unlock further upside. Until then, BTC remains rangebound, caught between rising support and heavy overhead resistance.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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