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Bitcoin, Ethereum Price Rally ‘Halfway’ as Options Traders Look to Year-End Push

by admin September 15, 2025



In brief

  • Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen 6% and 4% this month, defying the usual September slump.
  • Options data show bullish bets outweighing bearish ones, with weighting geared for higher year-end prices.
  • Expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025 are helping underpin appetite for risk assets.

September’s slump may not be the last, but an expert says the crypto market still has room to rally into year-end.

“There’s been growing speculation that we’ve reached the top of this cycle, but I don’t think that’s the case,” Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, told Decrypt. 

He believes the second half of September might see increased volatility and some short-term pain due to the month’s historical seasonality, driven largely by the U.S. financial year-end.



Bitcoin dropped, roughly 1.29% from Saturday’s high of $116,245 to $114,770, CoinGecko data shows.

For Ethereum, the pain could stem from treasuries, whose market-to-net asset value —comparing a company’s stock value to that of its assets — has dropped below one, which may prompt them to sell the underlying asset and repurchase shares instead, Dawson explained. 

Dawson said the market may be only “halfway” through a fourth-quarter upswing, citing supportive macro trends and options data.

The market’s expectation of multiple rate cuts in 2025 aligns with investors’ bullish positioning as seen in options data that shows call open interest for Bitcoin outnumbering puts by nearly 2.5 to 1. 

“Macro is turning extremely favourable. The latest Polymarket data shows the odds of three rate cuts before year-end have jumped from 22% to 49% in just two weeks, Dawson said.

The odds of four rate cuts, or a full percentage point, have climbed above 10%—a sharp change in expectations that typically favors risk assets, such as crypto.

The market’s consensus probability of price outcomes shows “a 40% chance Ethereum closes above $5,000 by year-end, and 20% chance it settles above $6,000.

For Bitcoin, the market gives a 37% probability of $125,000 or higher by the same time.”

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are up nearly 6% and 4%, respectively, this month, going against a historically bearish month for digital assets.

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September 15, 2025 0 comments
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GameFi Guides

Bitcoin Options Signal Bearish Trend Ahead of $4.5B Expiry

by admin September 4, 2025



The Bitcoin options market is preparing for a high-stakes moment as over $4.5 billion in crypto options will expire on Friday. This includes $3.28 billion in Bitcoin contracts. The expiry coincides with the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, raising the potential for sudden market swings. 

A huge $4.5 billion worth of crypto options is set to expire this Friday, marking a crucial moment for the market. Most of this, about $3.28 billion, comes from Bitcoin options, making it one of the most closely watched expiries of the year.

According to Deribit, a large number of put options are clustered between the $105,000 and $110,000 strike prices. It looks like a lot of traders do not want to take the risk by hedging their positions, just in case Bitcoin’s price takes a dip. 

🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨

At 08:00 UTC on Friday, over $4.5B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $3.28B notional | Put/Call: 1.38 | Max Pain: $112K
OI tilted toward puts, with notable clustering around $105K–110K strikes.$ETH: $1.27B notional | Put/Call:… pic.twitter.com/MUYoXboFfn

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) September 4, 2025

On the other hand, Ethereum options sit at $1.27 billion, an even trading activity. There’s an increase in call options above $4,500, which suggests more hope among traders about Ethereum’s price compared to Bitcoin. Right now, the max pain level for ETH is at $4,400, so that’s definitely a key level to keep an eye on.

Volatility Remains Subdued Despite Market Rebound

September started with a quiet tone that was at the end of August. Volatility is moderate and volumes are modest.. Bitcoin perpetual funding rates, which help align futures with spot prices, have cooled to 6% after hitting double digits. Open interest has also fallen, with just over 720,000 contracts denominated in BTC still active.

Greeks.live reported that near-term implied volatility for Bitcoin sits near 35% or lower. Ethereum’s volatility is higher, hovering around 65%, though its recovery has been weaker. 

“Despite Bitcoin’s solid rebound over the past two days, the options market has shown muted reactions,” Greeks.live stated on X. This shows that traders expect limited volatility in September, even with major economic data releases ahead.

Institutions Expand Activity as Outlook Shifts

CME Group highlighted record growth in crypto derivatives, with open interest hitting $36 billion in August. Large open interest holders reached 1,006, showing a broader range of institutional participation beyond Bitcoin.

According to the chart shared by Greeks.live, outlining Bitcoin’s expected price volatility, there are expected fluctuations in the coming months. On September 5, both short-term and forward volatility were at 29.49%. 

Bitcoin ATM Volatility Term Structure, Source: Greek.live

Thereafter, forward volatility is likely to drop on September 7 as per the chart and then start rebounding gradually as prices move into late 2025 and early 2026. 

The massive expiry of Friday’s Bitcoin options may decide the direction of the market. Although volatility at present is low, traders will remain on the lookout for bigger swings in the coming months.

Also Read: Outflows from Galaxy Digital Sparks Fear of Bitcoin Selling Pressure





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September 4, 2025 0 comments
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Altcoin Season Suggested by Bullish Options Action
Crypto Trends

Altcoin Season Suggested by Bullish Options Action

by admin September 2, 2025



Sharp gains in alternative cryptocurrencies could define the year-end, with SOL, XRP, and TRUMP poised to lead the charge, crypto options and derivatives platform PowerTrade said Tuesday.

“Traders were placing bets for altcoin season running into year-end with strong upside call activity for end-of-December expirations in AEVO, AR, DOGE, ENA, HYPE, LINK, MOG, PAXG, SOL, TIA, TRUMP and ZRO,” Bernd Sischka, Co-Founder and Chief Commercial Officer at PowerTrade told CoinDesk, explaining the market flows in August.

The platform registered a cumulative trading volume of over $1 billion in August – with call options making up roughly 68% of total trades—an unmistakable sign that investors are leaning towards upside plays rather than protective hedges. A call option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date, representing a bullish bet on the market.

Solana stood out again, attracting heavy call buying in September and December expirations, with strike prices set well above current levels. Traders appear confident that the native token of the Solana blockchain will chalk out a breakout rally in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, XRP experienced unusually large block trades in the December expiry calls, suggesting growing optimism around potential regulatory clarity or ecosystem developments. In a quirky twist, traders took massive call spreads in TRUMP options, anticipating a volatility boom.

Meme coins like dogecoin DOGE$0.2139 and pepe PEPE$0.0₅9774 drew mostly retail interest, but tokens like WIF witnessed rising open interest, signaling that institutional investors are quietly building positions, especially in more established altcoins.

The platform emphasised that institutions are playing a larger role, engaging in block RFQs (request-for-quotes) on bitcoin and ether volatility, as well as sizable altcoin trades that combine hedging and speculative bets. “With Fed policy steady and liquidity returning, stars are aligning for a monster altseason end of year,” it said.

Broadly speaking, PowerTrade’s report revealed growing speculation in the broader market, extending beyond bitcoin and ether, with both retail and institutional participants preparing for significant gains in altcoins in the coming months.

While PowerTrade’s overall trading volume remains significantly smaller compared to industry giant Deribit, it distinguishes itself by offering options tied to smaller altcoins. This specialization allows traders to hedge their exposure and capitalize on price movements in these more volatile, less widely covered tokens, an opportunity often not available on larger platforms.



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September 2, 2025 0 comments
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Arkham reveals UAE’s $700m Bitcoin holdings originating from mining
NFT Gaming

Bitcoin price crashes ahead of options expiry as a risky pattern forms

by admin September 1, 2025



Bitcoin price is on track to drop for three consecutive weeks as traders brace for a $15 billion options expiry and as risky chart patterns form on the weekly chart. 

Summary

  • Bitcoin price has crashed for three consecutive weeks.
  • BTC and Ethereum options worth over $15 billion will expire today.
  • Technical analysis points to more BTC price dips.

Bitcoin (BTC) price plunged to $108,000 on Friday, Aug. 29, down significantly from the all-time high of $124,200, and there is a risk that the downtrend could continue if it loses a key support. 

Bitcoin price tumbles ahead of a key options expiry

Crypto and stocks often plunge or remain highly volatile ahead of a major options expiry. It is common for the stock market to plunge ahead of he triple-witching event when options of stocks and indices expire. 

Bitcoin price is dropping as investors wait for a major options expiry worth over $15 billion. Data compiled by Deribit, one of the top derivatives exchanges, shows that short sellers target a Bitcoin dive to between $95,000 and $110,000.

More data by CoinGlass shows that options open interest has jumped in the last three days, reaching a high of $57 billion on Friday. A rising options open interest is common towards a major expiry. 

Bitcoin options open interest | Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin price often rebounds a few days after the options expiry date, and this could happen soon as the weighted funding rate has remained positive in the past few months.

The risk this time is that the expiry is happening at a time when investors are embracing a risk-off sentiment. For example, the top indices like the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones dropped by 1.10% and 0.35% on Friday, with Nvidia leading the losses. They also dropped after a report pointed to sticky consumer prices in the US. 

BTC price risky chart pattern is concerning

Bitcoin price chart | Source: crypto.news

The other notable risk is that Bitcoin has been slowly forming a highly risky pattern since March last year. The weekly logarithmic chart pattern shows that it has formed an ascending wedge pattern.

Its upper line connects the higher highs since March 11 last year, while the lower line links the lowest levels since August. These lines are nearing their convergence, risking a stronger crash in the coming weeks. 

The bearish BTC price forecast will be confirmed if the coin drops below the lower side of the wedge pattern at $105. If this happens, there is a risk it could plunge to the support at $74,470, its lowest level in April.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.



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September 1, 2025 0 comments
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Massive $14.6B BTC and ETH Options Expiry Shows Bias for Bitcoin Protection
Crypto Trends

Massive $14.6B BTC and ETH Options Expiry Shows Bias for Bitcoin Protection

by admin August 26, 2025



Bitcoin BTC$109,977.56 and ether (ETH) options worth over $14.6 billion are set to expire Friday on Deribit in what’s shaping up to be one of the most significant derivative events of 2025.

The expiry is heavily skewed toward BTC put options, underscoring a continued demand for downside protection, whereas it’s more balanced for ether.

As of the time of writing, 56,452 BTC call option contracts and 48,961 put option contracts were due for settlement, totalling a notional open interest of $11.62 billion, according to data source Deribit Metrics. Deribit is the world’s largest crypto options exchange, accounting for 80% of the global activity. On Deribit, one option contract represents one BTC or ETH.

BTC’s open interest distribution. (Deribit Metrics)

A closer look at open interest reveals concentrated activity in put options with strike prices between $108,000 and $112,000. Conversely, the most popular call options are clustered at $120,000 and above.

In other words, near-the-money puts around BTC’s current market price of approximately $110,000 are highly sought after, while calls with higher strike prices reflect hopes for further upside.

In ether’s case, a total of 393,534 calls are due for settlement, outstripping the put tally of 291,128 by a significant margin, both totaling $3.03 billion in notional open interest.

Significant OI is concentrated in calls at strikes $3,800, $4,000 and $5,000, and put options at strikes $4,000, $3,700 and $2,200.

“BTC expiry points to persistent demand for downside protection, while ETH looks more neutral. Combined with Powell’s Jackson Hole signal, this expiry may help set the market tone for September,” Deribit said on X.

ETH’s open interest disttribution. (Deribit Metrics)

Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specified future date. A call option gives the right to buy and represents a bullish bet on the market. Meanwhile, a put option provides insurance against price slides.

The options market has grown leaps and bounds since 2020, with monthly and quarterly settlements gaining prominence as major market-moving events.

By 2021, some observers proposed that prices tend to gravitate toward ‘max pain’ levels – the strike prices where options holders suffer the greatest losses – in the days leading up to expiry. However, the validity of this theory remains a matter of debate among traders and analysts.

As of writing, the max pain levels for bitcoin and ether are 116,000 and $3,800, respectively, serving as focal points for believers of the max pain theory.

Read more: Ether, Dogecoin, Bitcoin Plunge Sees $900M in Bullish Bets Liquidated



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August 26, 2025 0 comments
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Battlefield 6 is making some big changes from the beta to address slide/jump spam, weapon recoil, those playlist options
Game Updates

Battlefield 6 is making some big changes from the beta to address slide/jump spam, weapon recoil, those playlist options

by admin August 22, 2025


The Battlefield 6 beta is well and truly behind us. By EA’s own admission, it had the most players in Battlefield history, for a beta or otherwise. There’s clearly significant interest in the game, but the beta also garnered a lot of criticism.

Following the beta’s conclusion, the developer promised that it would come back with an update on all the hottest topics coming out of the beta, and how it plans to address each concern. That day is now here.


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Battlefield Studios shared a response to a few key areas of feedback from the Battlefield 6 beta in a new blog post. The writeup addresses weapon mechanics, movement, modes, player counts, playlist options, and the variety of maps.

Starting off with weapons, the developer said recoil is getting a pass to make tap-firing and burst-firing more rewarding. The full game will also better represent the range characteristics for each weapon, which likely refers to how SMGs were unreasonably more accurate at range compared to ARs.

Of course, the ever-annoying M87A1 shotgun was touched upon in the post. At launch, getting a kill will require more pellets. While Battlefield Studios does touch on discrepancies between time-to-kill and time-to-death in some situations in the post, the issue remains under investigation.

Recon was the least popular class in the beta. | Image credit: Battlefield Studios, EA.

While movement in the beta was generally praised, some players attempted to push its limits in ways that try to resemble Call of Duty’s. In response, the full game will reduce horizontal momentum carried from a slide into a jump. Consecutive jumps are also being penalised with a lower height for each one. The inaccuracy gained by firing while jumping or sliding is also being increased. Finally, parachutes now have lower initial acceleration.

Map exploits are next on the list. You may have seen instances of players reaching out-of-bound spots (mainly rooftops) during the beta, and the developer is working on making them impossible in the final game.

Of course, the other complaint about maps is just how small they were, effectively making them all practically play the same. The blog post stresses that there’s going to be more variety at launch, but it also confirms that upcoming Battlefield Labs tests will feature Mirak Valley, and Operation Firestorm – two larger maps that will be available at launch.

Watch on YouTube

One of the most discussed modes in the beta has been Rush, and the post clarifies the developer’s intent with its implementation in Battlefield 6. The beta featured 12v12 matches that some said were too small, though mainly because of the map design.

While the post doesn’t touch specifically on the map sizes for Rush, it does confirm that it’s going to continue to be a mode with a (relatively) small player count, leaving Breakthrough to deliver that large Rush-ish experience.

One of the most interesting (and welcome) parts of the post is a discussion on the studio’s philosophy when it comes to player counts per mode/map. Battlefield Studios said that maps and modes are each designed to fit different player counts, which inevitably means these numbers are going to vary.

In essence, player counts aren’t set in stone, and instead vary based on what works for each situation. The blog post gives the example of Breakthrough, a mode that will be available on maps with 48 players, and others with the full 64.

Not hiding this time. | Image credit: Battlefield Studios, EA.

Another controversial topic from the beta has been the availability (and visibility) of playlists. The developer reiterates that Open and Closed Weapon playlists will continue to be options at launch, and that it’s “looking for ways” to make those options easily accessible.

The last takeaway from the post is that some of these changes – including the aforementioned larger maps – will be part of the next Labs sessions, which is exciting for those who have access to that.

For everyone else, Battlefield 6 will be available on October 10 for PC, PS5, and Xbox Series X/S.



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August 22, 2025 0 comments
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Bitcoin Bull Market Hinges On $13.8 Billion Options Expiry
Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Bull Market Hinges On $13.8 Billion Options Expiry

by admin August 21, 2025



Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin bears hold strong incentives below $114,000, likely intensifying pressure ahead of the options expiry.

  • AI-sector spending concerns add turbulence and weigh on investors’ broader risk appetite.

A total of $13.8 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options are set to expire on Aug. 29, a moment many traders believe could determine whether the recent 9.7% correction marks the end of Bitcoin’s bull run or just a temporary pause. The drop to $112,100 on Thursday pushed Bitcoin to its lowest point in six weeks, intensifying bearish momentum ahead of the monthly options expiry.

Bullish Bitcoin strategies ill prepared for prices below $114,000

The $7.44 billion in open interest for call (buy) options stands 17% higher than the $6.37 billion in put (sell) contracts. Still, the actual outcome hinges on Bitcoin’s price at 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 29. Deribit dominates the market with an 85% share, followed by CME at 7% and OKX with 3%.

Bulls may have been overly confident, with some wagers set at $125,000 or higher. That optimism quickly eroded after Bitcoin’s decline, shifting momentum toward put instruments. Regardless of the rationale behind the recent BTC price correction, traders who opted for bullish strategies will likely come out disappointed.

Deribit options open interest for Aug. 29, BTC. Source: Deribit

Only 12% of call options were placed at $115,000 or below, leaving most out-of-the-money at current levels. By contrast, 21% of puts are positioned at $115,000 or higher, with significant clusters at $112,000. Thus, it is only natural to expect bears to continue negatively pressuring Bitcoin’s price ahead of the monthly expiry.

It might be too early to declare bullish options strategies entirely lost. Traders are awaiting comments from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, as any suggestion of increased odds of rate cuts could support asset prices. Hotter-than-expected US jobless claims data on Thursday added to that anticipation, keeping macroeconomic uncertainty high.

Related: Why is Bitcoin crashing and will $112K be the final bottom?

US Federal Reserve and tech stocks could dictate Bitcoin’s outcome

Below are five probable scenarios at Deribit based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances but exclude complex strategies, such as selling put options to gain upside price exposure.

  • Between $105,000 and $110,000: $210 million in calls (buy) vs. $2.66 billion in puts (sell). The net result favors the put instruments by $2.45 billion.

  • Between $110,100 and $114,000: $420 million calls vs. $1.94 billion puts, favoring puts by $1.5 billion.

  • Between $114,100 and $116,000: $795 million calls vs. $1.15 billion puts, favoring puts by $360 million.

  • Between $116,100 and $118,000: $1.3 billion calls vs. $830 million puts, favoring calls by $460 million.

  • Between $118,100 and $120,000: $1.7 billion calls vs. $560 million puts, favoring calls by $1.1 billion.

For bullish strategies to gain traction, Bitcoin would need to trade above $116,000 by Aug. 29. Yet, the most critical battle lies at $114,000, where bears are most motivated to push prices lower. 

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s fate in the $13.8 billion monthly options expiry will be decided by broader macroeconomic trends, including investors’ discomfort with the artificial intelligence sector. Concerns deepened after Morgan Stanley warned that soaring spending could limit major tech firms’ ability to fund share buybacks, amplifying caution in equity markets.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.



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August 21, 2025 0 comments
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Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Options Traders Split Ahead of Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting

by admin August 21, 2025



In brief

  • Options data indicates that Bitcoin traders are split, with nearly equal bullish and bearish block trades.
  • Experts suggest markets will be closely watching for Powell’s tone if there’s no clear decision surrounding rate cuts.
  • They also said crypto’s bullish market structure remains intact in the long term.

Bitcoin traders are entering a high-stakes standoff ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. 

With conflicting macroeconomic signals and mixed investor sentiment, the directional bias remains unclear for U.S. equities and crypto.

The July CPI report, delivered earlier this month, provided a bullish signal with rate cut hopes, prompting a crypto market rally that pushed Bitcoin to an all-time high in the first two weeks of August. 



Subsequent PPI data release, however, has elevated inflation concerns, further aggravating ambiguity over whether the Fed intends to cut rates this year, including next month.

Bitcoin has dropped from 8% from its August 14 all-time high of around $124,128 to $114,170 following a sharp decline over the past seven days, CoinGecko data shows.

Despite Bitcoin being near record highs, “the market is pricing in roughly an 85% chance of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting,” John Haar, managing director at Swan Bitcoin, told Decrypt.

“Powell is likely to keep his comments relatively neutral in order to keep his options open,” Harr added.

To cut or not to cut, that is Powell’s question

While bond traders remain adamant that a cut will arrive in September, the uncertainty has led to a split in investor expectations and betting in the derivatives market.

The “block bullish and bearish trades were nearly equal,” Adam Chu, Chief researcher at GreeksLive, an options trading platform, told Decypt. 

Even with marked trading volume, “short-term implied volatility declined,” Adam said, indicating “institutional investors are not very optimistic that this meeting will bring about significant volatility.”

In any case, the market’s reaction hinges on Powell’s tone. 

“It’s clear that many investors are hoping for a rate cut,” James Gernetzke, CFO at Exodus, told Decrypt.

Gernetzke believes that while a rate decision may not become clear until future data is released, investors should still “take note of his tone—this will matter just as much as the specifics.”

“Bitcoin and crypto assets are sensitive to global liquidity conditions and should respond favorably to any further signal the Fed will continue on its dovish path,” Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, told Decrypt.

A hawkish tone, however, could spark a renewed sell-off in equities and crypto. 

But Gernetzke also offered a nuanced view, noting that this crypto market cycle is “atypical due to regulatory tailwinds” and institutional adoption, which “could soften the blow of a hawkish Powell.” 

O’Shea echoed that sentiment, arguing that any negative near-term decision on rates wouldn’t impact the long-term investment case for crypto, supported by institutional adoption and favorable policy from the White House.

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August 21, 2025 0 comments
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