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2025 NFL preseason Week 3: Analysis, 53-man roster projections
Esports

2025 NFL preseason Week 3: Analysis, 53-man roster projections

by admin August 22, 2025


  • NFL NationAug 21, 2025, 10:59 PM ET

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      NFL Nation is made up of 32 team-specific reporters who cover the NFL year-round across ESPN.com, ESPN television shows, ESPN Radio, ESPN+ and social media platforms. It was established ahead of the 2013 season.

The third week of the 2025 NFL preseason kicked off Thursday as teams take their final look at key position battles ahead of Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline to trim rosters to 53 players.

To keep you updated on how teams fared, our NFL Nation reporters are summarizing each game below and predicting each team’s 53-man roster.

Quick links:
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Thursday’s results

Giants: Some bottom-of-the-roster spots seem to have been secured Thursday night. Cornerback Art Green might have solidified his place as the fifth cornerback with a strong tackling effort. He had five tackles in the first half. Defensive tackle D.J. Davidson batted a pass and forced a hold near the goal line. That should help his chances. As for the crowded quarterback position, Tommy DeVito’s audition for the rest of the league saw him impress: He completed 15 of his first 17 passes while throwing a touchdown on each of his first three drives. Still, he is likely the odd man out in the QB room. — Jordan Raanan

Next game: at Washington Commanders (1 p.m. ET, Sept. 7)

Patriots: The Patriots played only a handful of offensive and defensive players who would be considered potential starting-caliber candidates, so perhaps the most compelling storyline was with kickers: rookie Andy Borregales vs. Parker Romo. A sixth-round pick out of Miami, Borregales missed a 49-yard field goal in the first half after coach Mike Vrabel elected not to go for it on fourth-and-1 — perhaps to see how Borregales, who missed a 57-yarder last week, would respond. Borregales later hit a 30-yard field goal, as well as a point after attempt, while Romo didn’t get a chance to kick. It has been a close competition throughout training camp. — Mike Reiss

Next game: at Las Vegas Raiders (1 p.m. ET, Sept. 7)

Steelers: The defensive line suffered a potentially significant loss when rookie first-rounder Derrick Harmon was carted off the field with a knee injury and quickly ruled out. At halftime, coach Mike Tomlin said the defensive end was “being evaluated.” The Steelers already lost some depth there during training camp when veteran Dean Lowry suffered an ACL tear. It could mean the Steelers will be in the market for a veteran trade option or a cut-down day addition. — Brooke Pryor

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Next game: at New York Jets (1 p.m. ET, Sept. 7)

Panthers: Read into the inactive list of 33 players how you choose. Wide receiver Brycen Tremayne got the night off. Veteran receivers Hunter Renfrow and David Moore did not. Maybe Tremayne has an edge for the sixth or seventh receiver spot after a solid preseason. Or perhaps Carolina wants to keep him under the radar, so it can add him to the practice squad if he doesn’t make the 53-man roster. As for Renfrow and Moore, the team could have been auditioning them for potential trades. One of them likely will make the roster. Renfrow’s comeback is a good story, but has he done enough to earn a spot? — David Newton

Next game: at Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. ET, Sept. 7)

Friday’s games

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (7:30 p.m. ET)
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (8 p.m. ET, NFL Network)
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans (8 p.m. ET, CBS)
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs (8:20 p.m. ET)

Saturday’s games

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Commanders (Noon ET, ESPN Unlimited)
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (1 p.m. ET, ESPN Unlimited)
Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET, NFL Network)
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET, ESPN Unlimited)
Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (1 p.m. ET)
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (4 p.m. ET, NFL Network)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (7 p.m. ET, NFL Network)
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN Unlimited)
Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN Unlimited)
Las Vegas Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (10 p.m. ET, NFL Network)



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How every 2025 NFL draft pick has looked in the preseason
Esports

How every 2025 NFL draft pick has looked in the preseason

by admin August 22, 2025



Aug 22, 2025, 06:40 AM ET

Training camps are winding down, and the 2025 NFL regular season is fast approaching. Which is why this is a perfect time to check in on the 257-member 2025 draft class.

We turned to our NFL Nation reporters to size up how every single draft pick has fared this spring and summer as cut-down day looms. Updates on all 257 selections are below, from Titans top-pick quarterback Cam Ward all the way to Patriots cornerback Kobee Minor, 2025’s Mr. Irrelevant. Who is in line to start for their team? Who is exceeding their draft position in the preseason and could make an early impact? And which high picks are falling behind?

Rookies are grouped by team below, and each team is listed in the order in which they made their first selection in April. That means we begin with Tennessee’s class.

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Round 1 (No. 1): Cam Ward, QB. Titans coach Brian Callahan is taking a day-by-day approach to the QB’s development, but Ward quickly became the starter and has emerged as a team leader. His constant trash talk with defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons provides a charge at practice. Ward has showcased his deep passing ability, especially with veteran receiver Calvin Ridley. He is focused on staying on schedule and getting the ball out when he gets to the top of his drops. “His timing is up to date,” Ridley said. “He whips it, he’s confident, it’s smooth. It’s an easy, catchable ball.”

Round 2 (No. 52): Oluwafemi Oladejo, Edge. Oladejo flashed at times, especially during one-on-one pass-rush drills. He has worked with both the first- and second-team defense but remains a work in progress.

Round 3 (No. 82): Kevin Winston Jr., S. Winston was heavily involved in defensive reps until hamstring and knee soreness landed him on the sideline for the past couple weeks.

Round 4 (No. 103): Chimere Dike, WR. Dike has earned a spot as a reserve slot receiver, giving the Titans a speedy option from that position. He’ll also be in the mix for punt and kickoff returns.

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Round 4 (No. 120): Gunnar Helm, TE. Helm’s ability to find windows in zone coverage and win on seam routes has made him a trusted target for Ward. It has given him more reps with the first team in 12 personnel sets and plays when he’s the only tight end on the field.

Round 4 (No. 136): Elic Ayomanor, WR. It’s only a matter of time before Ayomanor takes the starting “X” spot thanks to the big plays he has made down the field and across the middle, but he’ll need to be a more consistent playmaker before he assumes that role.

Round 5 (No. 167): Jackson Slater, G. Slater has earned a depth role at center and guard, where his strength is getting out in space to make blocks on screens or pulling outside to lead the way for running backs.

Round 6 (No. 183): Marcus Harris, CB. Harris has made his mark as an outside cornerback, where he rarely panics if a receiver gets a step on him. He has also shown solid ball skills that have led to pass breakups.

Round 6 (No. 188): Kalel Mullings, RB. Mullings has made tough runs in practice and games, which could cement him as a short-yardage back who could contribute on special teams. — Turron Davenport

Round 1 (No. 2): Travis Hunter, WR/CB. The Jaguars were not shy about planning to play Hunter on offense and defense and discussing the kind of impact he could have for them. GM James Gladstone said Hunter has the ability to “alter the trajectory of the sport itself.” Hunter has been practicing on both sides of the ball and has participated in 364 snaps in 7-on-7 and 11-on-11 drills in the first 15 practices, including 17 on offense and 16 on defense in last Thursday’s scrimmage.

Coaches and teammates have raved about his physical conditioning and how he’s mentally handling the load of learning a new offense and defense while finding a way to seamlessly work between both units. Hunter is dealing with a minor upper-body injury that kept him out of the second preseason game, but he’s expected to be back on the practice field soon — and could start on both offense and defense in Week 1 against Carolina.

Round 3 (No. 88): Caleb Ransaw, S. Ransaw played corner and safety in college, and the Jaguars started him out at safety. He was getting third- and fourth-team reps on defense but playing a lot on special teams before getting hurt (lower body) just before the preseason games began. He will miss the rest of camp and could start the season on injured reserve, but the Jaguars envision him eventually becoming a starter and being a key special teams player.

Round 3 (No. 89): Wyatt Milum, G. Milum played tackle at West Virginia, but the Jaguars drafted him as a guard despite him not working at that spot until the Senior Bowl. Milum has worked with the second-team line at right guard, but he has also gotten reps at tackle. That versatility is something the Jaguars want from of all their offensive linemen. They also love his physical and nasty demeanor, something that has been missing from the offensive line over the past few seasons.

Round 4 (No. 104): Bhayshul Tuten, RB. The Jaguars love his speed (4.32 40-yard dash) and plan to use Tuten in the running back rotation with Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby and LeQuint Allen Jr.

Round 4 (No. 107): Jack Kiser, LB. He was drafted as the eventual replacement for Chad Muma and that changeover is likely going to occur this month. Kiser has had some first-team reps along with work on all four special teams units.

Round 6 (No. 194): Jalen McLeod, LB. He was getting time on special teams until a lower-body injury in the second week of camp kept him off the field.

Round 6 (No. 200): Rayuan Lane III, S. Special teams coordinator Heath Farwell praised Lane on special teams, which is a good sign for his chances to make the roster.

Round 7 (No. 221): Jonah Monheim, C. Monheim was the second-team center in the second preseason game and likely contributed to veteran Luke Fortner being traded to the Saints right after that game.

Round 7 (No. 236): LeQuint Allen Jr., RB. Allen was drafted in part because of his pass blocking, and he has been the best back at picking up blitzes all camp. That should get him on the roster. — Michael DiRocco

Round 1 (No. 3): Abdul Carter, Edge. Carter has lived up to the hype this summer, dominating from the start of camp. His explosiveness and bend immediately caught the attention of his teammates while he played all over the field (outside linebacker, defensive tackle and inside linebacker). Right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor declared a week into camp that he knew Carter was “going to be great.”

Carter flashed that potential in his first preseason game, recording two pressures on three pass rushes. Carter might not start initially, but the Giants are going to have him in a rotation on the edge and get him on the field as much as possible in pass-rush situations.

Round 1 (No. 25): Jaxson Dart, QB. The young quarterback had his ups and downs early in the summer before turning it on in recent weeks. Dart has been especially impressive in his first two preseason appearances, completing 25 of 35 passes for 291 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Dart explained midway through camp that he started to feel more comfortable when given more freedom at the line of scrimmage.

“That just allowed me to play just faster and be able to make quicker decisions,” he said. Still, Russell Wilson is the starter. That’s highly unlikely to change before Week 1. But the better Dart plays, the more likely he gets in early in the season.

play

1:59

Stephen A.: Giants have ‘no reason to rush’ starting Jaxson Dart

Stephen A. Smith discusses the importance of the Giants being patient with Russell Wilson and not rushing Jaxson Dart.

Round 3 (No. 65): Darius Alexander, DT. He got off to a rocky start this summer after being slowed by an injury this spring. Alexander has flashed in recent weeks, but he still works almost exclusively with the second-team defense. It might take some time before he works his way into a regular rotation spot this season.

Round 4 (No. 105): Cam Skattebo, RB. Just when Skattebo started to hit his stride, he was set back by a hamstring injury that has kept him off the field the past few weeks.

Round 5 (No. 154): Marcus Mbow, OT. Perhaps the biggest surprise of this draft class, Mbow has been impressive this summer while primarily playing right tackle. He could work his way into the swing tackle spot.

Round 7 (No. 219): Thomas Fidone II, TE. Fidone has flashed with his catch radius but has also been inconsistent. But he’s in the mix for a roster spot in a deep tight end room.

Round 7 (No. 246): Korie Black, CB. It might be a long shot for Black to make the active roster. — Jordan Raanan

Round 1 (No. 4): Will Campbell, OT. Campbell has been the starting left tackle from the first day he arrived this spring, and there is a notable drop-off behind him. His aggressive playing style has stood out in preseason games — finishing run blocks down the field — as has his inexperience handling pass-rush stunts (e.g. a sack allowed in the preseason opener).

“Will is a young player that has a ton of respect for what is expected of him. I think he does a good job of gaining information from veteran players,” offensive line coach Doug Marrone said. “I think he’s said this before: There are some things he’ll go out and win on, and if he’s not winning, he’s learning. I think that’s the big thing I see; I see a player who is continuously trying to learn.”

Round 2 (No. 38): TreVeyon Henderson, RB. Henderson has a different gear the Patriots haven’t had in the backfield in a long time. He returned the opening kickoff of the preseason 100 yards for a touchdown. In the second game, he had an impressive 8-yard TD run in which he sliced through the left side despite little daylight. Using the Lions as a template, he’ll be the Patriots’ version of Jahmyr Gibbs, with Rhamondre Stevenson filling the David Montgomery role.

Round 3 (No. 69): Kyle Williams, WR. Williams projects as fifth on the depth chart behind Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas and Mack Hollins, with potential to rise as he continues to develop. Williams is a versatile option with the ability to win with his release at the line of scrimmage and down the field.

Round 3 (No. 95): Jared Wilson, C/G. Wilson opened camp as the backup center to veteran Garrett Bradbury before moving to starting left guard in Week 2. Wilson has now appeared to hit a fork in the road, where he could go in either direction after playing with the second unit in the second preseason game.

Round 4 (No. 106): Craig Woodson, S. Woodson has been the personal protector on the punt team and one of the top three safeties in a defense that often plays three at the same time.

Round 4 (No. 137): Joshua Farmer, DT. The Patriots remain high on Farmer after trading up for him, but he has had a quieter camp that has included missing some time due to an undisclosed injury. He currently projects as a backup/developmental option.

Round 5 (No. 146): Bradyn Swinson, Edge. With Harold Landry III and K’Lavon Chaisson entrenched as edge starters, Swinson should make the team as a backup developmental option and special-teamer.

Round 6 (No. 182): Andy Borregales, K. He has faced a strong charge from Parker Romo for the job, but based on his draft status, Borregales likely has the upper hand. But there have been some predictable growing pains (e.g. — coming on the field late for a badly missed 57-yard FG in the second preseason game).

Round 7 (No. 220): Marcus Bryant, OT. Bryant started the first two preseason games as veteran starter Morgan Moses rested and looks like the Patriots’ top backup swing tackle.

Round 7 (No. 251): Julian Ashby, LS. The first long-snapper drafted in the NFL since 2021, Ashby has had a few erratic snaps. But New England continues to ride with him as the only snapper on the roster.

Round 7 (No. 257): Kobee Minor, CB. Vying for the No. 5 or No. 6 spot at corner behind starters Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III, along with top backups Marcus Jones and Alex Austin, Minor has shown some sticky coverage in the first two preseason games. — Mike Reiss

Round 1 (No. 5): Mason Graham, DT. Graham has been transitioning to a new defensive scheme that asks him to penetrate more instead of taking on double-teams. The Michigan product has adjusted well and made strides in recent weeks. He’s projected to start in Week 1.

“I think his pass rush has improved, and his ability to kind of wiggle out of blocks is pretty impressive as well,” left guard Joel Bitonio said.

Round 2 (No. 33): Carson Schwesinger, LB. With Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (neck) out for the season and Jordan Hicks retiring, the Browns gave Schwesinger defensive playcaller duties on day one, a testament to their trust in the rookie. Schwesinger is set for a big role as a starter in the middle of the defense.

Round 2 (No. 36): Quinshon Judkins, RB. Judkins hasn’t been with the Browns throughout training camp as he faced a domestic violence charge, but prosecutors declined to formally pursue charges. The NFL is still reviewing the matter, which could lead to a suspension, but he’ll split carries when he returns to the team.

Round 3 (No. 67): Harold Fannin Jr., TE. Fannin has been a mainstay in two-tight end sets with David Njoku. The Browns will look to get Fannin the ball in a bevy of ways.

Round 3 (No. 94): Dillon Gabriel, QB. Gabriel received first-team reps in the Browns’ quarterback competition but fewer snaps than Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett before suffering a hamstring injury. He will likely be a top backup to open the season.

Round 4 (No. 126): Dylan Sampson, RB. Sampson will make the team, and with Judkins’ status up in the air, Sampson will push Jerome Ford for carries in the backfield early on.

Round 5 (No. 144): Shedeur Sanders, QB. Sanders has been QB4 on the depth chart but impressed in the preseason opener. Flacco is set to start the season as QB1, but Sanders will stick with Cleveland as it continues to develop him. — Daniel Oyefusi

play

1:53

How Shedeur can lock in the QB2 spot with Browns

Stephen A. Smith breaks down the battle for the QB2 position with the Browns after it was confirmed Joe Flacco will be their starter in Week 1.

Round 1 (No. 6): Ashton Jeanty, RB. Jeanty has done nothing but impress his teammates and coaches during training camp. Quarterback Geno Smith said Jeanty has gotten better each day of practice. Following the Raiders’ preseason loss to the 49ers, when Jeanty totaled seven carries for 33 yards and a touchdown, defensive end Maxx Crosby commended the Heisman Trophy finalist for being compact and sudden when he runs the ball.

“That’s why he had so much success with Boise State, so we’re really excited about him and we’re looking forward to him being a big part of what we’re doing,” Crosby said.

Jeanty is expected to be the team’s starting running back right out the gate. He has received first-team reps since OTAs and started in both preseason matchups. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly anticipates using Jeanty quite a bit in the passing game, too.

Round 2 (No. 58): Jack Bech, WR. Bech provides a physical presence at wide receiver. He is a willing blocker and has a knack for making contested catches. Bech has flashed during camp but has not stood out compared with fellow rookie wideout Dont’e Thornton Jr. Bech has played mostly with the second-team offense, with occasional reps with the starters. He has the potential to make a Year 1 impact, but it’s going to take time before his role comes to fruition.

Round 3 (No. 68): Darien Porter, CB. Porter has a good chance to be a starting cornerback opposite Eric Stokes. He has upside and the size that coach Pete Carroll values at cornerback, and at times, he has shown the ball skills the organization valued during the draft process. Cornerback is one of the biggest question marks on the roster, and the unit’s success will come down to Porter being dependable on the outside.

Round 3 (No. 98): Caleb Rogers, G. The Raiders’ starting offensive line is pretty much set, but Rogers will provide depth along the entire front, given his ability to play multiple spots.

Round 3 (No. 99): Charles Grant, OT. Grant has the potential to start in the future but is currently a developmental player who still has a way to go before playing significant snaps.

Round 4 (No. 108): Dont’e Thornton Jr., WR. Thornton has had a strong camp and is expected to start. Given his speed and size, he could be a big-play threat. Thornton’s presence should also create opportunities for tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers in the middle of the field. However, Thornton’s struggle to create separation against the 49ers’ cornerbacks during joint practice and the preseason game was noticeable.

Round 4 (No. 135): Tonka Hemingway, DT. Hemingway is expected to be in the Raiders’ defensive line mix. He has received starter reps during practice and made his presence felt in the run game. In two preseason matchups, Hemingway totaled four run tackles and the defense allowed 2.7 yards per carry when he was on the field.

Round 6 (No. 180): JJ Pegues, DT. Similar to Hemingway, Pegues is part of the Raiders’ defensive line rotation and could play significant snaps early. He started at nose tackle in the preseason opener against Seattle.

Round 6 (No. 213): Tommy Mellott, WR. Mellott said the switch from quarterback to wide receiver has been daunting. He has plenty of development to do before playing a meaningful role in the Raiders’ wide receiver room.

Round 6 (No. 215): Cam Miller, QB. A two-time NCAA Division I FCS national champion, Miller is a proven winner — a trait that general manager John Spytek values. Miller is not ready to be a second-string quarterback, but his dual-threat ability makes him someone worth developing.

Round 7 (No. 222): Cody Lindenberg, LB. Due to the Raiders’ linebacker depth, Lindenberg has an uphill climb to make the initial 53-man roster. — Ryan McFadden

Round 1 (No. 7): Armand Membou, OT. Membou became a starter the moment he was drafted. He hasn’t missed a practice, let alone a rep. Membou is “a special player, just a raw talent,” guard Alijah Vera-Tucker said. Membou is far from a finished product, though. In pass protection, he sometimes oversets to the outside, leaving himself vulnerable to outside-inside moves from quick pass rushers. It happened last week against the Giants in joint practices and the game. The coaches love Membou’s long-term potential, but there will be some growing pains.

Round 2 (No. 42): Mason Taylor, TE. He will have a major role on offense. The coaches view him as a true two-way tight end and believe his blocking is better than advertised. Taylor is healthy after missing more than a week with a high-ankle sprain. Jets coach Aaron Glenn likes to say that Taylor, the son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Jason Taylor, has the right DNA for the NFL.

Round 3 (No. 73): Azareye’h Thomas, CB. Thomas got off to a promising start, but he missed the first two preseason games due to a shoulder injury. Thomas was projected as the CB4 at the start of camp, but that role seems unlikely for Week 1. He’s trending toward being inactive for opening day.

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Round 4 (No. 110): Arian Smith, WR. He’s a lock to make the team and likely will have a small role in Week 1 as a gadget receiver who can also be a vertical threat because of his electrifying speed.

Round 4 (No. 130): Malachi Moore, S. He won’t start right away, but Moore can play safety or the slot. He could be included in certain sub packages.

Round 5 (No. 162): Francisco Mauigoa, LB. He’ll make the 53, but he’s down the pecking order at linebacker. Mauigoa could be inactive for Week 1.

Round 5 (No. 176): Tyler Baron, Edge. He probably will make the team because GMs don’t like to give up on developmental pass rushers. Baron needs to be more consistent to earn a place on the game-day roster, though. — Rich Cimini

Round 1 (No. 8): Tetairoa McMillan, WR. McMillan was penciled in as the No. 1 receiver for QB Bryce Young on draft day. That’s not going to change. He has proved himself with his sharp route running, as well as his ability to adjust on the ball and make the tough catches.

“He did a great job of pulling his line and giving me a spot to throw the ball,” Young said of a 40-yard catch by McMillan in the preseason opener. “It’s a lot harder than I’m sure it looked. I have all the confidence in the world in him.”

Round 2 (No. 51): Nic Scourton, Edge. A collapsed lung puts his short-term availability in question. Long term, Scourton’s ability to create pressure is as advertised. Panthers coach Dave Canales saw it against Browns rookie QB Shedeur Sanders: “Nic pivoted, ran another 40 yards, chased him and knocked him out of bounds. That’s what we saw on film, that relentless pursuit,” Canales said.

Round 3, (No. 77): Princely Umanmielen, Edge. Umanmielen showed his aggressiveness early in camp and continues to be quick off the snap. He had two quarterback hits in the second preseason game, but he still needs to be a more consistent pass rusher who can finish plays. He also needs to tighten up his run defense.

Round 4 (No. 114): Trevor Etienne, RB. Etienne is likely to make the team as the RB3 and return specialist, putting Raheem Blackshear’s future in doubt.

Round 4 (No. 122): Lathan Ransom, S. He’s playing behind veteran Nick Scott, but it’s only a matter of time before Ransom earns the starting job and becomes an immediate contributor.

Round 5 (No. 140): Cam Jackson, DT. A shoulder issue has slowed his progress, but his size (6-foot-6, 328 pounds) is imposing and his ability to eat up blocks is something the Panthers need.

Round 5 (No. 163): Mitchell Evans, TE. With veteran Tommy Tremble still rehabbing from back surgery, Evans has shown enough consistency to be a backup to Ja’Tavion Sanders for the time being.

Round 6 (No. 208): Jimmy Horn Jr., WR. Horn’s exceptional speed and work ethic should earn him a spot on the final roster despite a crowded, talented receiver room. — David Newton

Round 1 (No. 9): Kelvin Banks Jr., OT. It’s been a quiet camp for Banks, and that’s a good thing. The Saints placed him at left tackle immediately after he was drafted, and he has been a mainstay since. Banks is poised to be the left tackle of the future now that 2024 first-round pick Taliese Fuaga has been moved back to right tackle. Banks has already been a steady presence and has not stood out in a negative way since being drafted.

Round 2 (No. 40): Tyler Shough, QB. Shough has had a strong second half of camp and is competing with Spencer Rattler for the starting quarterback job. Shough started the second preseason game and has a shot to start in the regular season, but the competition is close.

Round 3 (No. 71): Vernon Broughton, DT. Broughton is fighting for a spot in a very crowded defensive line room. His draft status will get him a roster spot, but playing time will be hard to come by.

Round 3 (No. 93): Jonas Sanker, S. Justin Reid and Julian Blackmon have the starting spots locked down, but Sanker’s versatility and potential have earned him a backup role.

Round 4 (No. 112): Danny Stutsman, LB. Stutsman has had a very productive camp and has made a case for playing time this season, although Demario Davis and Pete Werner will still get the majority of the snaps.

Round 4 (No. 131): Quincy Riley, CB. Riley has made several plays on the ball at camp, causing a few turnovers. Although he’s not ready to start, he’s showing a lot of potential.

Round 6 (No. 184): Devin Neal, RB. Neal injured a hamstring. Although he is expected to be out for a few weeks, he still has a good shot to make the roster because the RB competition remains open.

Round 7 (No. 248): Moliki Matavao, TE. Matavao is a coin flip to make the active roster, but it could happen due to a combination of injuries at the position and his ability to block.

Round 7 (No. 254): Fadil Diggs, Edge. Diggs has come on strong in the last week of camp and might have earned himself a roster spot as a rotational rusher. — Katherine Terrell

Kaleb Johnson, Travis Hunter, Tyler Shough and Abdul Carter were among the rookies under the spotlight this offseason. ESPN Illustration

Round 1 (No. 10): Colston Loveland, TE. The Bears are asking Loveland to block defensive ends like a tackle and run routes like a wide receiver. So far, he has demonstrated he can do both. Loveland has a prime opportunity to make hay in the underneath game and has consistently been open in team drills, whether he’s lined up out wide, in the slot or in line. Bears coach Ben Johnson said he isn’t sure how he’ll divvy up workloads between Loveland and fellow tight end Cole Kmet, but it’s safe to say the rookie will be a big part of the Bears’ offense.

“He’s friendly to throw to,” backup quarterback Case Keenum said. “He’s got good body language. There’s that nonverbal communication that lets the quarterback know that he knows where the ball is and should be and has good body position in relation to defenders. And then based on what route it is, knows when to be open in a lot of ways.”

Round 2 (No. 39): Luther Burden III, WR. After being sidelined for two months with a hamstring injury, Burden wasted no time showing off his playmaking skills. His explosive after-the-catch ability translates well to this offense, but the complexity of the Bears’ scheme is something Burden is still trying to master. “He’s just got to [know his] alignment and assignment and line up and [be] ready to go,” Bears wide receivers coach Antwaan Randle El said. “That’s what he’s been picking up on and doing better with.”

Round 2 (No. 56): Ozzy Trapilo, OT. Trapilo earned first-team reps at left tackle in the spring and was firmly in the mix to protect Caleb Williams’ blind side in the first three weeks of training camp. The Bears then moved him back to right tackle (where he started 24 games at Boston College) with the second-team offense to cross-train him at both positions. Trapilo could begin his career as the team’s swing tackle as the Bears search for clarity at left tackle.

Round 2 (No. 62): Shemar Turner, DT. Turner missed three weeks of camp with an ankle injury before returning to practice Aug. 15. He projects to be part of the Bears’ defensive tackle rotation behind Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter Sr. and Andrew Billings.

Round 4 (No. 132): Ruben Hyppolite II, LB. Hyppolite is in the mix to win the strongside linebacker job after routinely showing off an instinctive ability to make plays along with his sub-4.4 speed. He has also carved out a role on all four special teams units.

Round 5 (No. 169): Zah Frazier, CB. Frazier has not practiced since rookie minicamp in May and was absent from the rest of spring workouts. He was excused from training camp for personal reasons.

Round 6 (No. 195): Luke Newman, G. The Bears have tapped into Newman’s versatility by playing him at center and both guard spots. The interior depth he provides strengthens his case to make the 53-man roster.

Round 7 (No. 233): Kyle Monangai, RB. Johnson said he’s pleased with Monangai’s progress and envisions him as someone the Bears can trust this fall. After entering camp as the third running back, Monangai has shown potential as a physical rusher who projects to have a sizable role behind D’Andre Swift. — Courtney Cronin

Round 1 (No. 11): Mykel Williams, Edge. The Niners didn’t go through any charades with Williams, immediately plugging him in as the starter opposite Nick Bosa. And Williams settled quickly into the Arik Armstead role, playing the edge on early downs and kicking inside to rush in obvious passing situations. A hyperextended knee has been a bit of a speed bump, but Williams is expected to be back and in the starting lineup soon.

“Hopefully we’ll get him back here pretty soon, get him back rolling and hopefully he can pick up where he left off,” defensive line coach Kris Kocurek said. “But [he had a] really positive start to camp.”

Round 2 (No. 43): Alfred Collins, DT. Collins battled a calf injury in the spring that contributed to a slow start but has progressed lately, according to coaches. Collins is viewed more as a run stuffer than a pass rusher, which means his playing time will come on early downs, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he worked his way into the rotation by the time the season starts.

Round 3 (No. 75): Nick Martin, LB. Martin has worked with the second unit throughout camp. Although he has flashed the speed and contact courage the Niners want, the key for Martin will be the game slowing down for him. He has a tendency to overrun plays, leading to missed tackles. He could still push for the starting strongside linebacker job, but pushing Dee Winters for the spot Dre Greenlaw vacated is out the window barring injury.

Round 3 (No. 100): Upton Stout, CB. Perhaps the rookie most ready to contribute, Stout quickly impressed with his work habits, quickness and surprising strength. He has the inside track to be the slot corner in Week 1 so long as the calf issue that kept him out recently subsides.

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Round 4 (No. 113): CJ West, DT. West has been a star in one-on-one pass-rush drills and could earn a starting job right away if he can translate it into games.

Round 4 (No. 138): Jordan Watkins, WR. A good start that had him on pace to play early was sidetracked by a high ankle sprain, leaving Watkins’ status in flux for Week 1.

Round 5 (No. 147): Jordan James, RB. James has battled multiple injuries in camp, including a broken finger. So although he will make the team if healthy, early playing time will be harder to earn.

Round 5 (No. 160): Marques Sigle, S. Injuries at safety have opened the door for Sigle, who has pleasantly surprised coaches, to potentially steal a starting spot. He also figures to be a special teams factor early.

Round 7 (No. 227): Kurtis Rourke, QB. Rourke is recovering from an ACL injury, and this year is likely to be viewed as a redshirt season unless other injuries force him into a depth spot midway through the year.

Round 7 (No. 249): Connor Colby, G. Colby struggled in practice early but has come on of late. He was even first up with the starters when left guard Ben Bartch recently left a practice early. Colby should make the roster and provide depth on the interior.

Round 7 (No. 252): Junior Bergen, WR. Drafted to be the primary returner, Bergen had a good return in the first preseason game. He hasn’t shown much as a receiver, but that’s not his path to a roster spot. — Nick Wagoner

Round 1 (No. 12): Tyler Booker, G. He has been a starter for all but one practice since being selected. For 12 years, Zack Martin managed the right guard spot at a Hall of Fame level. The Cowboys don’t need — or expect — Booker to do that, but he has shown he can more than get the job done. He is a powerful run blocker and might be better in space than some think. His pass protection will need some work, but his strength will help him in tight spots against more sudden rushers.

Round 2 (No. 44): Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge. He was one of the standouts of training camp and will see a major role on defense as a rookie. Ezeiruaku showed an array of moves to get to the quarterback, but he plays stouter against the run than some think.

Round 3 (No. 76): Shavon Revel Jr., CB. Revel will open the season on the non-football injury list as he continues to come back from a torn ACL suffered last season. He had some swelling in the knee in his rehab work in camp, but he’s back to training. Unless they find help elsewhere, the Cowboys need Revel to play a role in sub packages when he is healthy.

Round 5 (No. 149): Jaydon Blue, RB. An ankle injury slowed him late in camp, but before that his explosiveness as a runner and pass catcher was showing. Blue could be a change-of-pace back early.

Round 5 (No. 152): Shemar James, LB. He has earned a roster spot and can fill a role on defense but is likely a core special teamer to open the season.

Round 6 (No. 204): Ajani Cornelius, OT. Cornelius has played better in games than practice, but the depth at tackle might hurt his chances to make the 53-man roster. The practice squad is most likely.

Round 7 (No. 217): Jay Toia, DT. Unless the Cowboys look for a big, veteran D-tackle, Toia should have a spot on the roster. If he closes the preseason strong, he could play a large role in run defense.

Round 7 (No. 239): Phil Mafah, RB. His trajectory has climbed since the pads came on in camp, but Mafah might get caught in a numbers game that leads him to the practice squad.

Round 7 (No. 247): Tommy Akingbesote, DT. He had some positive moments in camp, but the practice squad is Akingbesote’s likely destination at the start of the season. — Todd Archer

Round 1 (No. 13): Kenneth Grant, DT. Grant has stood out since the pads went on at practice and has consistently demonstrated an ability to defend the run. He has also drawn rave reviews from coaches and teammates for his willingness to learn and has essentially been attached by the hip to Zach Sieler. Miami drafted Grant to play right away, and he’s trending toward doing exactly that.

“I think his emotional intelligence on this football team has been phenomenal,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said. “We needed his skill set to contribute and we couldn’t hold our breath if we were going to get a guy that can be a force on our defense. So I think he’s working relentlessly and I like where he’s at right now and I want to see his game continue.”

Round 2 (No. 37): Jonah Savaiinaea, G. Savaiinaea is another expected day one starter for a Dolphins offensive line that believes it added toughness and physicality this offseason. He is still adjusting to the speed of the NFL game, but he has flashed brilliance this summer and should be a solid rookie starter.

Round 5 (No. 143): Jordan Phillips, DT. Not only will Phillips make the roster, but he might also become a key contributor after a stellar summer and preseason.

Round 5 (No. 150): Jason Marshall Jr., CB. Marshall will make the initial roster, in part because of Miami’s depth issues at cornerback; those same issues might also provide a path to early playing time.

Round 5 (No. 155): Dante Trader Jr., S. Trader was banged up at the start of training camp but has flashed when healthy and should make the initial roster as a special teams contributor and depth safety.

Round 6 (No. 179): Ollie Gordon II, RB. Gordon is a roster lock, especially with Alexander Mattison’s season-ending injury. He has a real shot at challenging Jaylen Wright for Miami’s RB2 role if preseason production is any indication.

Round 7 (No. 231): Quinn Ewers, QB: Ewers is not far behind presumed backup Zach Wilson — if at all. He will be on the initial roster, and Wilson will have his hands full fending off Ewers for the QB2 job.

Round 7 (No. 253): Zeek Biggers, DT. Biggers has lived up to his surname this preseason and has been a disruptive presence at the line of scrimmage — particularly in batting passes down. He should make the initial roster. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Round 1 (No. 14): Tyler Warren, TE. The Colts were near the bottom of the league in tight end production in 2024, so the selection of Warren was most welcome. So far, he has confirmed practically everything the coaches believed about him, especially his ability to make difficult catches look routine. That has made life easier on the quarterbacks, according to coach Shane Steichen, because passes to Warren don’t need to be perfect. “We know when the ball is in his vicinity, he’s got a high percentage [chance] of catching the football,” Steichen said.

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Round 2 (No. 45): JT Tuimoloau, Edge. The Colts have good depth on the edge, so what they need from Tuimoloau is rotational help. He has shown that he’s plenty capable of that. But if he breaks out, he could earn even more playing time. He was slowed by a knee injury late in training camp, but the Colts still believe Tuimoloau can be a force as a run stopper and pass rusher.

Round 3 (No. 80): Justin Walley, CB. Walley sustained a torn ACL in a joint practice with the Ravens and is expected to miss the season. It was a huge blow for Walley personally, but also for the Colts’ defense. Walley had already emerged as a standout and was on track to be the team’s No. 3 cornerback.

Round 4 (No. 127): Jalen Travis, OT. Travis has a chance to establish himself as the Colts’ top backup offensive tackle, though he’s still adjusting to NFL speed.

Round 5 (No. 151): DJ Giddens, RB. Giddens has already made a splash and seems destined to be the Colts’ No. 2 running back behind Jonathan Taylor. Giddens’ skills in the passing game complement Taylor nicely, seeing how that is not an area of strength for the veteran.

Round 6 (No. 189): Riley Leonard, QB. Leonard has made some splashes with the backups in training camp, but he has also raised questions about whether he has an NFL-caliber arm. He’ll likely be the third QB.

Round 6 (No. 190): Tim Smith, DT. Smith had a quiet camp and could be destined for the practice squad given the veterans ahead of him on the depth chart.

Round 7 (No. 232): Hunter Wohler, S. Wohler has been flipping back and forth between safety and dime linebacker. He has already solidified a roster spot and is likely to see playing time. — Stephen Holder

Round 1 (No. 15): Jalon Walker, Edge. It has not been the greatest training camp for Walker. After a spring program where coaches were raving about him — Falcons coach Raheem Morris said he had future captain ability — he has missed most of the 11-on-11 periods with a hamstring injury. Walker did play in the first preseason game and had success, but a tweaked groin kept him out of the team’s second exhibition. The plan for Walker, a versatile linebacker, is to use him on the edge initially, have him master that and then move him around when ready. If healthy, he’ll be a regular in the edge rusher rotation.

Round 1 (No. 26): James Pearce Jr., Edge. The speedy pass rusher has been one of the team’s most valuable defenders in camp and will be used often at edge even if he doesn’t start. Pearce seems to be getting more reps in practice than anyone else. He has also been involved in several fights, getting under the skin of the offensive line, which has its positives and negatives. But the Falcons have appreciated the aggression Pearce has brought to the defense. Morris said Atlanta wanted more “natural edge” on the team from a personality standpoint, and Pearce has delivered.

Round 3 (No. 96): Xavier Watts, S. Watts has been dealing with an injury through most of camp but played in both preseason games, ending with five tackles total. He’s part of a competition at safety with veteran Jordan Fuller and DeMarcco Hellams. The Falcons expect Watts to be a real contributor as a rookie.

Round 4 (No. 118): Billy Bowman Jr., CB. The Falcons believe they got a steal and think Bowman will make an impact in his first season, potentially starting in Week 1 at nickel corner.

Round 7 (No. 218): Jack Nelson, OT. Nelson has gotten significant reps, even playing with the first-team offense at times, but has struggled to adjust on some plays and could be looking at a practice-squad role. — Marc Raimondi

Round 1 (No. 16): Walter Nolen III, DT. Nolen has yet to practice since training camp began in July because of a calf injury he suffered while working out ahead of camp. He’s progressing and is at the point in his rehab where he’s supposed to be, coach Jonathan Gannon said recently. “Hasn’t had any, I don’t want to say the word setback, but hasn’t had any setbacks,” Gannon said.

Round 2 (No. 47): Will Johnson, CB. Johnson has impressed from the jump and quickly worked his way onto the field as the starting cornerback in nickel and dime packages. He has stood out, pairing his physical abilities with his mental aptitude. “He’s been able to grasp the playbook rather quickly,” cornerbacks coach Ryan Smith said. “I’ve been impressed.”

Round 3 (No. 78): Jordan Burch, Edge. Burch has caught the eyes of his coaches because of his physical presence and how he’s able to move. It landed him first-team reps during camp and a chance to crack a deep rotation on the edge. “He doesn’t bust [assignments] a lot. He really doesn’t. So he knows what’s going on. He’s executing schematically and he’s playing pretty fast and violent. He’s doing a good job,” Gannon said.

Round 4 (No. 115): Cody Simon, LB. There’s a high probability Simon makes the 53 because of how quickly he has picked up playing inside linebacker in the NFL. With that comes a good chance of seeing the field as a rotational player in addition to special teams duties.

Round 5 (No. 174): Denzel Burke, CB. Burke has to beat out a couple of corners to make the team, but he has had a strong preseason, which could help swing the decision in his favor.

Round 6 (No. 211): Hayden Conner, G. An injury in the second preseason game could affect Conner’s status on the 53, but he was in line to make the team as a swing center and guard.

Round 7 (No. 225): Kitan Crawford, S. Arizona already has a deep and talented safety corps, but Crawford could carve out a niche playing special teams and contribute in spot situations on defense. — Josh Weinfuss

Round 1 (No. 17): Shemar Stewart, Edge. When the Bengals drafted Stewart, there were questions about whether his great traits could help him overcome the limited sack production he had at Texas A&M. And despite a contract dispute that kept him off the field for the start of training camp, he has been as impressive as any Bengals rookie in recent memory. Stewart has been disruptive, lining up across multiple positions on the defensive line and earning respect from all corners of the locker room.

“These are all the things we saw on the tape in terms of being able to position him in different spots and make an impact immediately and disrupt,” coach Zac Taylor said.

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‘It’s finally done!’ Barnwell reacts to Stewart’s deal with Bengals

Bill Barnwell joins “SportsCenter” to break down what Shemar Stewart will bring to Cincinnati with his contract finally in place.

Round 2 (No. 49): Demetrius Knight Jr., LB. Knight has been slotted in as a day one starter and has been attentive in learning throughout training camp. The most notable example was Knight working with linebackers coach Mike Hodges on his moves as a pass rusher. Knight also hasn’t been shy about thumping offensive players in practice and making sure his presence is felt.

Round 3 (No. 81): Dylan Fairchild, G. From the moment he was drafted, Fairchild was projected as the starter at left guard. He has lived up to the billing. He has been solid throughout training camp and gone virtually unnoticed, which is good for a rookie interior lineman. Fairchild is arguably the best guard on the roster and should beef up the Bengals’ interior offensive line.

Round 4 (No. 119): Barrett Carter, LB. Carter is projected as a backup but should still have a good shot at getting defensive and special teams reps this season.

Round 5 (No. 153): Jalen Rivers, OT/G. Rivers started camp as the swing tackle but has since shifted to guard, which should help Cincinnati’s shaky depth at that spot.

Round 6 (No. 193): Tahj Brooks, RB. Brooks could be the team’s No. 2 running back behind Chase Brown and should get opportunities to make plays this season. — Ben Baby

Round 1 (No. 18): Grey Zabel, G. With a strong camp and standout performances in both preseason games, Zabel is showing why the Seahawks viewed him as the best interior offensive lineman in this year’s draft. He’s playing left guard after finishing his college career at left tackle, and while athleticism was his oft-mentioned trait leading up to the draft, he looks plenty powerful, too.

“It’s not too big for him,” coach Mike Macdonald said of Zabel’s preseason performances. “There’s poise there. I thought his execution’s been really good. Still plays out on the table for him, which is cool. There’s an opportunity to grow and he’ll hit those things. … He’s done a phenomenal job, and he’s stayed hungry and he’s chasing those little details that’s going to make him a great player.”

Round 2 (No. 35): Nick Emmanwori, S. The Seahawks have a clear role in mind for Emmanwori, who will play regularly in their big-nickel package and will operate near the line of scrimmage. He has made enough plays in camp to look like he has the potential to be an impact player right away, even in a part-time role.

Round 2 (No. 50): Elijah Arroyo, TE. Arguably no member of Seattle’s rookie class has been as consistently impressive as Arroyo. He has shown good hands to go along with excellent speed that has allowed him to frequently make plays downfield. His emergence was one of the factors in Seattle’s decision to release veteran Noah Fant.

Round 3 (No. 92): Jalen Milroe, QB. Milroe’s improvement in accuracy has been evident in camp and both preseason games (9-of-15 for 107 yards), though Macdonald has noted that the QB needs to clean up some operational miscues. While he’s the clear-cut QB3 behind Sam Darnold and Drew Lock, the Seahawks have talked about using Milroe for a handful of plays that take advantage of his legs. He successfully converted a tush push in the second exhibition game.

Round 5 (No. 142): Rylie Mills, DT. Mills is on the non-football injury list while recovering from a December ACL tear and won’t be ready until midseason at the earliest.

Round 5 (No. 166): Tory Horton, WR. Horton has had a strong enough camp to push veteran Marquez Valdes-Scantling for the third receiver job — and for Emmanwori to predict that Horton will be the “steal of the draft.”

Round 5 (No. 175): Robbie Ouzts, FB. A college tight end, Ouzts has converted to fullback and is leading Brady Russell in the competition to fill that role.

Round 6 (No. 192): Bryce Cabeldue, G. Although he hasn’t factored into the competition at right guard, Cabeldue has positioned himself well to make the 53-man roster as a backup.

Round 7 (No. 223): Damien Martinez, RB. Kenny McIntosh’s season-ending knee injury opened the door for Martinez to be Seattle’s third running back — likely his only ticket to a spot on the 53 since Seattle will also keep a fullback — but George Holani currently appears to be ahead of Martinez.

Round 7 (No. 234): Mason Richman, OT. Richman hasn’t done enough to pass Michael Jerrell for the fourth spot on the tackle depth chart, so don’t expect him to make the 53.

Round 7 (No. 238): Ricky White III, WR. White also looks like a long shot to make the 53, but he has made enough plays and brings enough on special teams to make him a strong practice squad candidate. — Brady Henderson

Round 1 (No. 19): Emeka Egbuka, WR. Whether he’s formally listed as a starter or not, Egbuka will get those types of snaps in the Bucs’ offense. He can line up at any receiver position, and with Chris Godwin still recovering from ankle surgery (plus Jalen McMillan taking a hard fall on his neck in the second preseason game), Egbuka will be counted on early. “[He is] already a true professional,” Mike Evans said. “He is an unbelievable playmaker and is going to have a great career in this league.”

Round 2 (No. 53): Benjamin Morrison, CB. Morrison has been sidelined all preseason due to a hamstring injury, and this comes after missing months due to hip surgery. The hope is that he’ll be ready for Week 1, but that could be difficult.

Round 3 (No. 84): Jacob Parrish, CB. Coach Todd Bowles believes Parrish is the fastest guy on the roster, and his physical traits and ball skills make up for his 5-foot-10 height. He has learned the Bucs’ defense at both nickel and on the outside and could be their starting nickelback for Week 1.

Round 4 (No. 121): David Walker, Edge. The Bucs had high hopes for Walker as a rotational edge who could potentially blossom into a starter in coming seasons, but he suffered a torn ACL in the first week of practice, so he’ll spend the season on injured reserve.

Round 5 (No. 157): Elijah Roberts, DT. After a quiet preseason opener, Roberts recorded a quarterback pressure and a tackle on a kick return in the second game as he vies for the fifth defensive lineman spot.

Round 7 (No. 235): Tez Johnson, WR. Johnson missed the first preseason game with a leg injury but made his presence known in the second with a 34-yard punt return. He did muff another one in that game, but his speed as both a returner and a receiver is apparent. He should make the team. — Jenna Laine

Round 1 (No. 20): Jahdae Barron, CB. Barron was a top-10 player on the Broncos’ draft board, so they gladly reeled him at No. 20. He has not disappointed given he has already spent plenty of time in situational work with the starters and has lined up both outside and at nickel. The Broncos have kept him concentrated on cornerback, but Barron has the ability to line up as a dime linebacker and at safety. As Broncos coach Sean Payton has said: “He’s very instinctive. He’s very smart, exceptionally smart. I think that’s a big plus for him.” Expect Barron to get situational work in Week 1.

Round 2 (No. 60): RJ Harvey, RB. Harvey and free agent signee J.K. Dobbins have received most of the starting work throughout training camp. When the starters were playing in the preseason opener, Harvey was the early-down back with Dobbins playing on third down or longer passing situations. Harvey will get plenty of work this season, and Payton sees him as a potential lead back.

Round 3 (No. 74): Pat Bryant, WR. The Broncos have a crowded receiver room, but Bryant is poised to carve out snaps when the regular season opens. Bryant has shown physicality in contested-pass situations and the ability to create space on his release from the line of scrimmage, which is what Denver hoped for when it selected him.

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Round 3 (No. 101): Sai’vion Jones, DT. Jones caught the Broncos’ eye with his high-motor play, and they value the 6-foot-5, 289-pounder’s length. But with four veterans — Zach Allen, John Franklin-Myers, D.J. Jones and Malcolm Roach — getting most of the defensive line snaps, Jones is battling for a rotational spot. He has done enough to make the team if Denver keeps six defensive linemen, but DL is one of the deepest spots on the Broncos’ roster.

Round 4 (No. 134): Que Robinson, Edge. Robinson missed some time early in training camp with a bone bruise in his leg but was one of the best special teams players on the Broncos’ board. Robinson has also shown enough potential as a situational rusher to make the roster.

Round 6 (No. 216): Jeremy Crawshaw, P. Crawshaw has been the only punter in training camp, so he figures to be the guy in the regular season. But the Broncos would like to see more consistency to go with his rare leg power.

Round 7 (No. 241): Caleb Lohner, TE. Lohner played only one year of college football after playing basketball at Baylor and BYU, so he is a developmental prospect with red zone upside. — Jeff Legwold

Round 1 (No. 21): Derrick Harmon, DT. Harmon’s future isn’t immediately clear after he was carted off with a knee injury in the preseason finale against the Panthers. Harmon, who recorded a sack and a tackle for loss in the second preseason game, was tabbed a starter during minicamp and backed it up with a strong camp, filling out a defensive line that also includes stalwart Cameron Heyward and Keeanu Benton. A significant injury to Harmon would be a major loss for a team that drafted him to help rectify a porous run defense that heavily contributed to the Steelers’ season-ending five-game losing streak a year ago.

“We think he’s had a really good camp,” assistant general manager Andy Weidl said. “His explosiveness, his length, his hands … the ability to escape blocks and both phases, the energy comes off the ball with the explosiveness. All those things are attractive.”

Round 3 (No. 83): Kaleb Johnson, RB. Drafted for his instincts and power, Johnson started to show that more in the second preseason game as he got more comfortable with the speed of the NFL. But through two preseason games, he’s averaging only 3.5 yards per carry on 19 rushes. His pass pro also took a step forward in his second game, but he’s still the RB2 behind Jaylen Warren.

Round 4 (No. 123): Jack Sawyer, Edge. Sawyer was a luxury pick for an already stacked linebacker room, but he has looked more like a developmental player and special teams contributor through two preseason games.

Round 5 (No. 164): Yahya Black, DT. Black turned heads throughout camp, using his long arms and solid timing to be a disruptive force at the line of scrimmage. Look for him to be a solid rotational player up front.

Round 6 (No. 185): Will Howard, QB. Howard had a promising start to camp but was sidelined with a spiral fracture to a finger in his throwing hand. He should still make the team.

Round 7 (No. 226): Carson Bruener, LB. The son of former Steelers tight end and scout Mark Bruener, Carson is in a battle for a roster spot. Other inside linebackers’ experience and contributions on special teams might bump Bruener to the practice squad.

Round 7 (No. 229): Donte Kent, CB. Kent is on the losing end of a numbers game. The acquisition of Jalen Ramsey, along with a deep, veteran group of cornerbacks, makes Kent unlikely to make the 53-man cut. — Brooke Pryor

Round 1 (No. 22): Omarion Hampton, RB. Players and coaches have raved about Hampton since he arrived at the team’s facility in April. At first, it was Hampton’s stature. He’s 6-foot, 221 pounds but almost looks bigger than that, towering over his Chargers running back counterparts. Hampton also moves with a rare swiftness for a back his size.

“I don’t want to say how he’s impressed me, but I can tell,” edge rusher Khalil Mack said. “If you play football, then you know. It’s going to be fun to watch him play.”

Round 2 (No. 55): Tre Harris, WR. Harris had an inconsistent training camp, struggling with drops at practice. But he dazzled in the third preseason game against the Rams, leading the Chargers with six catches for 85 yards. “He had a heck of a game,” coach Jim Harbaugh said.

Round 3 (No. 86): Jamaree Caldwell, DT. Caldwell has been a consistent disruptor in the Chargers’ three preseason games. His best game came against the Saints, where he had a sack and four tackles, including a tackle for loss. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said Caldwell is a “dominant block disruptor.”

Round 4 (No. 125): Kyle Kennard, Edge. Kennard has been hurt for most of training camp but will make the team. He has serious competition for playing time, however, with third-year veteran Caleb Murphy, who has emerged this summer.

Round 5 (No. 158): KeAndre Lambert-Smith, WR. Lambert-Smith has been the star of this offseason with weekly spectacular catches and has a real shot to make an impact this season.

Round 5 (No. 165): Oronde Gadsden II, TE. Gadsden has fared well this offseason, and his upside as a pass catcher could get him opportunities this season.

Round 6 (No. 199): Branson Taylor, G. Taylor will be in a reserve role this season, but the Chargers’ shaky, injury-laden offensive line could thrust him into playing time.

Round 6 (No. 214): RJ Mickens, S. Mickens has dazzled on special teams and defense, and his versatility will likely earn him a roster spot.

Round 7 (No. 256): Trikweze Bridges, CB. Bridges appears to be facing an uphill battle to make the roster, but a good performance in the Chargers’ final preseason game could change things. — Kris Rhim

Round 1 (No. 23): Matthew Golden, WR. It’s hard to imagine a rookie receiver getting off to a better start. He has shown his 4.29 speed, ability to get open and the ease with which he catches the ball. What more could anyone want in a receiver? Golden is in line to get regular targets and opportunities in the passing game right away. “He’s one of those rookies that has made one or two plays every day,” Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said. “When you start to see that, the consistency of that, there’s a lot of history here that those guys make it and are pretty good players in this league.”

Round 2 (No. 54): Anthony Belton, OT. Belton has shown his power, especially as a run blocker, but has to clean up his technique and penalty issues — he had five in the first half of the Week 2 preseason game. The good thing is that barring injuries, the Packers don’t need him to play immediately, so Belton has time to work through it. He’s likely fourth on the tackle depth chart to open the season.

Round 3 (No. 87): Savion Williams, WR. If Williams can stay healthy — he has been slowed by a shoulder injury — then he can be a multifaceted weapon as a receiver and a ball carrier. He already has shown that despite being in and out of practice.

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0:47

Harry Douglas has a high ceiling for the Packers

Harry Douglas breaks down why the Packers could make an NFC championship run.

Round 4 (No. 124): Barryn Sorrell, Edge. Sorrell looked set for a rotational role as a pass rusher until he sustained a knee injury in the second preseason game against the Colts. Now he is likely to miss the start of the season.

Round 5 (No. 159): Collin Oliver, DE. Oliver hasn’t taken a single practice rep. He was coming off a foot injury in college and has dealt with a hamstring injury this offseason, so Oliver is likely to begin the season on the physically unable to perform list.

Round 6 (No. 198): Warren Brinson, DT. Brinson appears to have a shot to be in the defensive line rotation to start the season.

Round 7 (No. 237): Micah Robinson, CB. The Packers’ top four cornerbacks appear set, so Robinson is likely in a battle for one of the final spots.

Round 7 (No. 250): John Williams, G. Williams has not taken a single practice snap because of a back injury that has him on the PUP list. — Rob Demovsky

Round 1 (No. 24): Donovan Jackson, G. Jackson appears set to be a Week 1 starter after taking every rep at left guard during the public portion of training camp. An anticipated competition with veteran Blake Brandel never materialized, in part because Brandel was filling in at right guard while Will Fries finalized his recovery from a fractured leg. Jackson has found himself in some vulnerable spots with veteran defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, but coach Kevin O’Connell said he has been impressed with Jackson’s ability to “salvage a really competitive rep, and then mentally the next time anticipate it and kind of be prepared for it.”

Round 3 (No. 102): Tai Felton, WR/KR. Felton has demonstrated speed and open-field running ability while competing for the No. 4 receiver position. It’s also clear that the Vikings hope he can fill their kick returner role, despite some preseason struggles that have included a fumble and a kick that ricocheted off his leg.

Round 5 (No. 139): Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, DT. Ingram-Dawkins has gotten enough work with the second team, and with the first team when starters took veteran rest days, to suggest he will be part of the defensive line rotation at some point during the season.

Round 6 (No. 201): Kobe King, LB. There appears to be a big special teams role in store for King, who also has been good enough at inside linebacker to prompt the Vikings to waive veteran backup Brian Asamoah II..

Round 6 (No. 202): Gavin Bartholomew, TE. Bartholomew hasn’t participated in a single practice, dating to OTAs, because of a back injury. It does not appear he will be a contributor in 2025. — Kevin Seifert

Round 1 (No. 27): Malaki Starks, S. Starks will start immediately, filling the biggest hole in a talented secondary that features five first-round picks. The Ravens’ coaches been thrilled with his maturity, leadership and playmaking ability. Starks has made a couple of interceptions in training camp, including one where he leapt in front of a receiver to pick off Lamar Jackson in the end zone.

“If you were going to sit there and say what was one of the biggest reasons we drafted him, it’s because of [his takeaway ability],” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “He just has great ball skills. He has great range.”

Round 2 (No. 59): Mike Green, Edge. Green will be used heavily in the Ravens’ edge rotation with Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy because, as outside linebackers coach Matt Robinson said, Green really “pops out on tape.” Green plays with a relentless mindset and is tenacious at the point of attack.

Round 3 (No. 91): Emery Jones Jr., OT. Jones has yet to practice for the Ravens because of a shoulder injury he suffered before the draft. He was expected to return in the middle of training camp, but if Jones remains on the non-football injury list to start the season, he will miss at least the first four games.

Round 4 (No. 129): Teddye Buchanan, LB. Known for his communication on the field, Buchanan will be the primary backup at middle and weakside linebacker while being a core special teams player.

Round 5 (No. 141): Carson Vinson, OT. The Ravens see Vinson as a developmental blocker who will make the team as the No. 4 offensive tackle.

Round 6 (No. 178): Bilhal Kone, CB. Kone will miss his entire rookie season after suffering a gruesome left knee injury in the preseason opener.

Round 6 (No. 186): Tyler Loop, K. The recently named successor to Justin Tucker, Loop has shown a strong leg and consistency during training camp.

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Round 6 (No. 203): LaJohntay Wester, WR. Wester solidified himself as the Ravens’ primary punt returner after scoring an 87-yard touchdown in the preseason opener.

Round 6 (No. 210): Aeneas Peebles, DT. The Ravens have been impressed with the quickness of Peebles, who provides interior pass-rushing depth.

Round 6 (No. 212): Robert Longerbeam, CB. Baltimore placed Longerbeam on season-ending injured reserve on Aug. 10 after he injured a knee during a training-camp collision.

Round 7 (No. 243): Garrett Dellinger, G. With the Ravens’ previous three seventh-round picks making the team, Dellinger is looking to land one of the final offensive line spots. — Jamison Hensley

Round 1 (No. 28): Tyleik Williams, DT. Williams brings confidence and has a high football IQ, and he’s expected to contribute immediately this season. He has taken first-team reps at defensive tackle all summer as the Lions will start the season without starting defensive tackle Alim McNeill, who is recovering from a season-ending ACL injury in 2024. Williams shined in his preseason debut at Atlanta despite failing to log any official defensive statistics in limited action, displaying quick feet and power that have coach Dan Campbell excited.

Round 2 (No. 57): Tate Ratledge, G. Ratledge continues to fight for a starting role on a line that lost key starters in Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow (retirement) and veteran guard Kevin Zeitler (free agency). After the first day of joint practices against the Dolphins on Aug. 13, Campbell was impressed with Ratledge and thought he “looked like a starting NFL guard.”

Round 3 (No. 70): Isaac TeSlaa, WR. TeSlaa continues to improve and earn trust as a playmaker. He scored receiving touchdowns in back-to-back preseason games. He has shined throughout training camp and preseason and could emerge as a sleeper pick. He has earned some first-team reps with the offense in practice. GM Brad Holmes called him a “gritty, tough, physical guy with a lot of confidence in himself.”

Round 5 (No. 171): Miles Frazier, G. Frazier has yet to play after being placed on the active/PUP list with a knee injury ahead of training camp. That will keep him out until September or October.

Round 6 (No. 196): Ahmed Hassanein, Edge. Campbell loves Hassanein’s effort and enthusiasm, describing him as “a sponge.” However, Hassanein suffered a pectoral injury and will “be down for a while” according to Campbell, who said he was unsure if Hassanein would return this season.

Round 7 (No. 230): Dan Jackson, S. The Lions placed the rookie safety on injured reserve on Aug. 4, a day after he left practice because of a leg injury.

Round 7 (No. 244): Dominic Lovett, WR. Lovett was an early training camp standout who could be useful on special teams. He could be Holmes’ next late-round gem. — Eric Woodyard

Round 1 (No. 29): Josh Conerly Jr., OT. Conerly was competing with veteran Andrew Wylie at right tackle early in training camp but has taken the bulk of the work with the starters lately as Wylie fills in for injured players elsewhere. Conerly looked sluggish early as he adjusted to playing in the NFL and playing on the right side as opposed to the left, where he played at Oregon. But he has been solid of late. Coach Dan Quinn said he likes his “quickness off the ball,” which works well with the team’s desire to use pulling action and screens.

If Conerly doesn’t start the opener, he’ll earn a starting nod at some point early in the season. But having a veteran such as Wylie (88 career starts) provides Washington insurance early in the season. “We don’t expect him to be an All-Pro on Day 1,” running back Brian Robinson Jr. said of Conerly. “He’s making strides; I definitely see improvement.”

Round 2 (No. 61): Trey Amos, CB. He has been impressive throughout training camp as a starting outside corner opposite Marshon Lattimore. Coaches have praised Amos’ patience at the line of scrimmage, with defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. saying his ability to play press man has stood out the most.

Round 4 (No. 128): Jaylin Lane, WR. Lane will serve as the Commanders’ top punt returner, and his speed will help him get playing time at receiver.

Round 6 (No. 205): Kain Medrano, LB. Medrano’s speed has the Commanders wanting to develop him as a cover linebacker, though any early impact will come on special teams.

Round 7 (No. 245): Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB. Washington likes its running back depth, but Croskey-Merritt has an excellent chance to make the roster; Quinn likes his “violent cuts.” — John Keim

Round 1 (No. 30): Maxwell Hairston, CB. Hairston suffered a right LCL sprain on July 29 and hasn’t returned. Before the injury, Hairston was competing with Tre’Davious White for the No. 2 cornerback job, but White appeared to be in the lead. Hairston is now off his crutches, but Bills coach Sean McDermott didn’t rule out him starting the year on injured reserve.

“When you get injured, unfortunately as a young player, you’re missing a ton of fill-in-the-blank, reps, experience, technique work, fundamentals, all those things,” McDermott said. “And so, there’s going to be a lot of work to get done here as he continues to get going.”

Round 2 (No. 41): T.J. Sanders, DT. Sanders has made a splash at times during both practice and in the preseason. He should be expected to be part of the defensive line rotation and play significant snaps during the season.

Round 3 (No. 72): Landon Jackson, Edge. Jackson hasn’t necessarily flashed as he makes his way through camp, but he did lead the team with four pressures in the second preseason game. He’s set to be a backup but will be part of the defensive line rotation.

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0:47

Stephen A.: Bills can beat anybody because of Josh Allen

Stephen A. Smith discusses how far he believes Josh Allen can take the Bills.

Round 4 (No. 109): Deone Walker, DT. Walker is set to make the 53-man roster and has flashed at times, including putting up a strong performance in the first preseason game. He’s set for a backup role.

Round 5 (No. 170): Jordan Hancock, CB. Hancock came into the second preseason game in position to earn his way to the 53-man roster but suffered a shoulder injury in third quarter, so he’ll be one to monitor.

Round 5 (No. 173): Jackson Hawes, TE. A roster spot is largely secure for Hawes, who has put together a solid camp, especially as a blocker. He’s in position to be the Bills’ third tight end.

Round 6 (No. 177): Dorian Strong, CB. Strong is on the roster bubble after having some up-and-down moments. There are limited open spots, so he’s a player to watch on cut-down day.

Round 6 (No. 206): Chase Lundt, OT. Lundt is another player on the bubble. The Bills are trying him at guard and tackle to see if he can crack the offensive line room.

Round 7 (No. 240): Kaden Prather, WR. Prather missed a significant amount of training camp with a hamstring injury. With limited spots available, he’s not expected to make the roster. — Alaina Getzenberg

Round 1 (No. 31): Jihaad Campbell, LB. Running back Saquon Barkley likened Campbell’s build to Micah Parsons and predicted he is going to be “a real big problem for a lot of guys in the league who have to go against him and block him.”

Campbell has gotten first-team reps this summer in place of Zack Baun, who had been sidelined with a back contusion. He has made a number of impact plays, with his speed and physicality on full display. It hasn’t been perfect — Campbell has had some lapses in pass coverage — but there’s plenty for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to be excited about. Campbell will get snaps right away in Week 1.

Round 2 (No. 64): Andrew Mukuba, S. Mukuba was slowed with a shoulder injury for part of camp but has come on lately. He made a big splash with an interception return for a touchdown and a fumble recovery in the second preseason game against the Browns, flashing the kind of playmaking ability that helped him lead the SEC in interceptions in 2024. He has been competing with third-year player Sydney Brown for the starting spot opposite Reed Blankenship.

Round 4 (No. 111): Ty Robinson, DT. Robinson registered a sack and a QB hit in the preseason opener against the Bengals and has a chance to work his way into Fangio’s defensive tackle rotation.

Round 5 (No. 145): Mac McWilliams, CB. Able to play both outside corner and nickel, McWilliams will probably start off as a versatile depth player who could elevate to a greater role before long.

Round 5 (No. 161): Smael Mondon Jr., LB. Mondon has worked with the first team some and has acquitted himself pretty well, earning himself a spot in a talented linebacker room.

Round 5 (No. 168): Drew Kendall, C. He is vying for the backup center role and has shown an ability to play guard.

Round 6 (No. 181): Kyle McCord, QB. McCord has had an up-and-down summer as he competes with Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the No. 3 QB role.

Round 6 (No. 191): Myles Hinton, OT. Hinton is listed as the third-team left tackle and is fighting for a roster spot.

Round 6 (No. 207): Cameron Williams, OT. Williams needs some developing and could be a practice-squad candidate.

Round 6 (No. 209): Antwaun Powell-Ryland Jr., Edge. He has had a relatively quiet camp, but with 30 career college sacks, the Eagles might want to keep him around and see how he develops. — Tim McManus

Round 1 (No. 32): Josh Simmons, OT. Through camp and two preseason games, Simmons has been nearly flawless based on the team’s expectations. Simmons has taken every repetition at left tackle and has been impressive in limited action in the preseason. If Simmons can continue to improve, the Chiefs’ offense, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, should be one of the NFL’s best units.

“The kid has come out here and shown a little attitude and swagger,” general manager Brett Veach said of Simmons during camp. “He’s a gifted dude.”

Round 2 (No. 63): Omarr Norman-Lott, DT. He had a strong start to camp, earning reps with the first-team defense, but Norman-Lott sustained a left ankle injury that slowed his progress. He is projected to be a rotational player along the Chiefs’ defensive line and could earn a bigger role as the season progresses.

Round 3 (No. 66): Ashton Gillotte, Edge. Although he is not flashy, Gillotte should be a solid contributor. He has already shown he can be an above-average player on special teams this preseason. Gillotte will play a limited role early behind George Karlaftis, Mike Danna and Charles Omenihu.

Round 3 (No. 85): Nohl Williams, CB. Williams was always going to be a project, perhaps a defender who could play a pivotal role late in his rookie season. Williams has shown physicality, but he sustained a concussion in the second preseason game.

Round 4 (No. 133): Jalen Royals, WR. Royals has already been one of the Chiefs’ most reliable rookies, a player who could fill in when No. 1 receiver Rashee Rice is suspended.

Round 5 (No. 156): Jeffrey Bassa, LB. Bassa has had the most highlight-worthy plays among the defensive rookies and should be a core player on special teams.

Round 7 (No. 228): Brashard Smith, RB. Despite his impressive speed, Smith hasn’t made much of an impact in the preseason and could need time to find his NFL role. — Nate Taylor

Round 2 (No. 34): Jayden Higgins, WR. Higgins is fighting for a starting job, competing with Xavier Hutchinson for an outside receiver spot. Higgins has been running with the first- and second-team offense throughout camp and preseason, so he’ll get significant playing time regardless of whether he starts.

Round 2 (No. 48): Aireontae Ersery, OT. Ersery will start at right or left tackle because he is one of the team’s best five offensive linemen. So Ersery will either start at left tackle, with Cam Robinson on the bench, or he’ll play right tackle with Robinson at left tackle and Tytus Howard shifting to right guard.

Round 3 (No. 79): Jaylin Noel, WR. Noel is slotted as the fourth receiver and is backing up Christian Kirk in the slot. Noel has special teams value as a punt returner.

Round 3 (No. 97): Jaylin Smith, CB. Smith is the Texans’ first cornerback off the bench if starters Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre or Kamari Lassiter get hurt.

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Round 4 (No. 116): Woody Marks, RB. Marks will make the team and could carve out a role as Houston’s third-down back.

Round 6 (No. 187): Jaylen Reed, S. Reed is dealing with a knee injury but should make the team with the injuries to safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Jimmie Ward.

Round 6 (No. 197): Graham Mertz, QB. Mertz is likely to get cut, as he’s the fourth quarterback and had a three-interception outing against the Vikings in the first preseason game.

Round 7 (No. 224): Kyonte Hamilton, DT. Hamilton suffered a lower leg injury during the early part of training camp and could start the year on the PUP.

Round 7 (No. 255): Luke Lachey, TE. Lachey is unlikely to make the team — the Texans have signed or traded for multiple tight ends throughout camp. And some of those transactions came before tight end Brevin Jordan suffered a season-ending knee injury. — DJ Bien-Aime

Round 2 (No. 46): Terrance Ferguson, TE. Ferguson has been dealing with a groin injury and has not practiced since July 31. The second-round pick is in a crowded tight ends room with Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen but could still contribute once healthy.

Round 3 (No. 90): Josaiah Stewart, Edge. Stewart had a hamstring injury after the draft, so he didn’t have much time on the field during the offseason program. But once the pads were on, defensive coordinator Chris Shula said that Stewart really showed up. “He’s a great rusher, but he’s also a tough guy [against] the run,” Shula said. “And [he] doesn’t take any plays off.”

Round 4 (No. 117): Jarquez Hunter, RB. Hunter is expected to be the Rams’ third running back behind Kyren Williams and Blake Corum but could see playing time as a change-of-pace back.

Round 5 (No. 148): Ty Hamilton, DT. Hamilton has improved as training camp has progressed and should make the 53-man roster. “I think he’s really ascended over the last week,” head coach Sean McVay said. “He’s playing with leverage and he’s understanding what he’s supposed to get done snap in and snap out.”

Round 5 (No. 172): Chris Paul Jr., LB. Paul missed time during training camp with a hamstring injury but wore the green dot in the Rams’ preseason opener. “He’s a running-hit type of guy,” McVay said. “I thought you felt his presence and you felt his range out there.”

Round 7 (No. 242): Konata Mumpfield, WR. Mumpfield is expected to be the Rams’ sixth receiver. He had two catches for 12 yards and a touchdown on Saturday against the Chargers. — Sarah Barshop



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2026 NFL quarterback predictions: 12 teams with questions
Esports

2026 NFL quarterback predictions: 12 teams with questions

by admin August 20, 2025


  • Dan GrazianoAug 20, 2025, 06:10 AM ET

    Close

      Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.

It’s a pretty important season for many NFL quarterbacks and their respective teams. No matter how the 2025 offseason or preseason has gone, a good chunk of the league is dealing with at least some level of short- and/or long-term uncertainty at the most important position.

Every year at this time, we like to take a look beyond the upcoming season and into the next offseason, projecting which teams might or might not still have QB questions. Then we predict what they might be in position to do about those questions. We try to lock in on ones with legit questions about how this season could shake out … and we try to stay away from ones where the contract situation offers at least some certainty.

For example, this might feel like an important year for Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, until you realize he has $37 million fully guaranteed in 2026 and $29 million fully guaranteed in 2027. You can say this is a vital year for Dak Prescott in Dallas, but he has $40 million guaranteed for 2026, and restructures have pushed the dead money penalty for cutting him to impossible levels. And the Bears, Vikings and Falcons are still too early in the process to be giving up on the guys they picked in the first round last year.

On the flip side, the Ravens likely have to do something with Lamar Jackson’s contract soon, since his cap number for 2026 jumps to $74.5 million. Jackson’s last negotiation was contentious, so it’s possible there could be some uncertainty around this situation in the next year or so. But other than the rising cap hit (which can be addressed by extending him), there’s no reason to think the Ravens are looking to move on anytime soon. So Baltimore didn’t make the cut here, either.

We ultimately keyed on 12 situations where the QB picture could look a lot different in 2026 and laid out two options for each front office — the most likely outcome and a long shot possibility. Let’s start with Arizona.

Jump to a team:
ARI | CAR | CLE | IND | LV | LAR
NO | NYG | NYJ | PIT | SEA | TB

Current starter: Kyler Murray
Signed through: 2027, plus a team option for 2028

Murray just turned 28 a couple of weeks ago. He was healthy all of last season and is surrounded with skill position players who put him in a position to succeed. And his 66.6 QBR ranked in the top 10 last season. If there’s a criticism of Murray, it’s that he hasn’t been quite the franchise changer he was drafted to be as the No. 1 pick in 2019.

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Certainly, it’s not too late to change that, and if the Cardinals have a big season, Murray should be all set going into 2026. His contract includes about $40 million in 2026 salary and bonuses that are already fully guaranteed. But there are no guarantees after 2026, and if Murray struggles with health and/or performance, it’s not out of the question that the Cardinals could turn their attention to the future. They can cut Murray after 2026 with minimal dead money impact. If things got bad enough before then, cutting him next offseason would cost them about $58 million — a lot, but also a manageable amount.

Most likely outcome: The Cardinals have a good enough season, maybe even contend for or snag a playoff spot, and stay the course with Murray through at least 2026. If Murray plays well enough, he could be in position to ask for an extension that offers him more security than his current deal.

Long shot outcome: Arizona’s season completely collapses, people in charge get fired, and a new regime comes in and decides the best thing for the franchise is to move on at QB in the 2026 draft. Murray becomes a candidate to be released or traded, while one of the top QB prospects for 2026 lands in Arizona in Round 1.

Current starter: Bryce Young
Signed through: 2026, plus a team option for 2027

Young had a rough rookie season and a rough start to his sophomore season, getting benched for Andy Dalton early in 2024 and looking as if he might become an all-time draft bust after being the first pick in the 2023 draft. But he got the starting job back when Dalton was injured in a car accident, and he finished the season strong under the tutelage of first-year head coach Dave Canales.

Now, hopes are high that Young can continue last season’s progress and emerge as Carolina’s franchise quarterback. His contract is fully guaranteed and pays him a total of about $10.2 million over the next two years. Next May, the Panthers will have to decide whether to pick up his fifth-year option for 2027, which is likely to cost somewhere in the $25 million range.

It’s a critical year for Young. If he flops and the Panthers don’t pick up the option, they’ll probably be looking to move on from him as early as next offseason. If he plays well and they do pick up the option, then he has fully guaranteed money in 2027 and probably isn’t going anywhere.

Most likely outcome: Young builds on the success he had toward the end of the 2024 season, the improving group around him on offense begins to jell, the Panthers pick up the option to give them more time to decide and Carolina continues to develop Young as its QB of the future.

Long shot outcome: The Panthers are the surprise team of the 2025 season. Young plays well enough to make his first Pro Bowl, and Carolina makes the playoffs. In this scenario, not only are the Panthers picking up the option — they’re talking extension with Young.

play

1:52

Can Bryce Young stay hot for the 2025 NFL season?

Dan Orlovsky and the “Get Up” crew discuss whether Bryce Young can continue playing well for the Panthers heading into the 2025 NFL season.

Current starter: Joe Flacco
Signed through: 2025

Whoa, boy. This is, without a doubt, the wildest, most unpredictable quarterback situation in the NFL right now and quite possibly in league history.

Flacco will start Week 1 for the Browns. He’s 40 years old and helped them get to the playoffs when he came out of what appeared to be retirement late in the 2023 season. He emerged from a four-man training camp QB competition this year in large part because everyone else missed time because of injury.

Kenny Pickett, the former Steelers first-rounder for whom the Browns traded back in March, might have had a shot to beat out Flacco but couldn’t get on the field enough after a hamstring injury in July. The Browns drafted Dillon Gabriel in the third round and Shedeur Sanders in the fifth round of this year’s draft, but both struggled to find first-team reps alongside Flacco and Pickett. By the time Pickett’s camp injury could have opened the door, Gabriel and Sanders were dealing with health issues of their own.

Any of those three could be the backup to Flacco in Week 1 (as could Tyler Huntley, if none of those three is ready), and all three could also start at some point this season if Flacco and/or the team struggle. But also don’t forget that Deshaun Watson is still signed for two more years at a fully guaranteed $46 million per year. Watson doesn’t sound likely to play this season as he recovers from an Achilles injury, but you never know.

So to recap, that’s …

  • A 40-year-old former first-round pick and Super Bowl MVP

  • Another former first-round pick who’s going into his fourth year in the league and is already on his third team

  • An undersized left-handed third-round rookie who threw an ugly pick-six in last weekend’s preseason start

  • A fifth-round rookie who’s Deion Sanders’ son and through no real fault of his own has become one of the most talked-about players in the entire league

  • The all-time QB contract albatross still hanging over all of it

This is going to be a wild story to follow all season.

play

0:47

Graziano: Fair for Browns to name Flacco as starting QB for Week 1

Dan Graziano discusses how the Browns’ training camp injuries justify their decision to name Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback for Week 1.

Most likely outcome: Who knows?? But there’s a really strong chance that Cleveland comes out of 2025 with more questions than answers about all of these guys and uses a 2026 first-round pick to try to get its quarterback situation right once and for all. Remember: The Browns also have the Jaguars’ first-round pick next year, giving them the juice to move up for the right QB if desired.

Long shot outcome: It turns out Sanders should have been a first- or second-round pick all along. He advances quickly in practice in the early months of the season and finishes as the Browns’ starter. Cleveland feels good enough about him that it uses those two first-round picks to build around him rather than replace him.

Current starter: Daniel Jones
Signed through: 2025

The Colts drafted Anthony Richardson Sr. fourth in 2023. He has played in just 15 of Indy’s 34 games since then, missing time for injuries and performance. Last season, he completed 47.7% of his passes and threw eight touchdown passes to 12 interceptions. So the Colts signed Jones to compete with Richardson for the starting job this summer. Well, the Colts announced Tuesday that Jones has won the starting job, and coach Shane Steichen insisted it was not just for Week 1 but rather for the whole season. We’ll see.

Jones has been the more consistent option through camp, but Richardson clearly offers a higher ceiling due to his great size, speed and arm strength. The problem for the Colts is Richardson hasn’t stayed healthy enough for them to see whether he can reach his potential. Some seats are getting hot out there in Indy, and it could be tempting to keep rolling with Jones if he gives the Colts the best chance to win games right away. But the flip side is the team made a heavy investment in Richardson and is in a bad spot long term if that pick doesn’t pan out. Plus, Jones hasn’t exactly been the healthiest QB in the league, so there’s no guarantee Indianapolis won’t have to turn to Richardson at some point.

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Most likely outcome: Each of these guys starts at least six games for the Colts in 2025. Maybe someone else starts one, too. The Colts get to the end of the season still uncertain about Richardson and face a tough decision on his fifth-year option next May. But Jones moves on, and Indy looks to the draft or free agency for its next answer. It’s tough to forecast the path, since a poor season by the Colts could lead to changes among the decision-makers as well as the quarterbacks. But the team would need a long-term solution, so Indy would likely prefer to use the draft to find a new QB. If the Colts needed a veteran placeholder, perhaps they could go for someone like Kirk Cousins — assuming the Falcons let him go this time.

Long shot outcome: Jones struggles, opening the door for Richardson to take the job back — and the light goes on. Sure, he’s still prone to the occasional brutal mistake, but Richardson makes three or four dazzling plays with his arm and his legs each week that others just can’t make. The Colts get to next offseason excited to pick up Richardson’s fifth-year option and keep working with him now that he has shown he can stay healthy and play at a high level in the NFL.

Current starter: Geno Smith
Signed through: 2027

Smith’s contract really doesn’t bind the Raiders to him for more than this season. He has $18.5 million in guaranteed money on the books for 2026, but because the Raiders don’t like to put signing bonuses in their contracts, that’s the extent of the dead money hit if they want to cut him next offseason. If they keep him through 2026, they’d pay him a total of $40 million this year and $26.5 million next year. There will be no guarantees on the books for 2027, meaning Vegas could move on from him after 2026 with no dead money hit whatsoever.

These are all worst-case scenarios, of course. Smith is a good quarterback. He completed 70.4% of his passes last season with the Seahawks, throwing 21 touchdown passes. New Raiders coach Pete Carroll believes in him from their time together in Seattle. So Smith could absolutely play well and get an extension (or at least more money) next offseason.

But he also turns 35 in October, and the structure of his contract indicates the Raiders weren’t willing to commit long term. This feels like a trial season for Smith in Las Vegas. Even if the Raiders found a better option in next year’s draft, keeping Smith as a $26.5 million backup wouldn’t be impossible. It’s pretty much what Atlanta is doing right now with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr.

Most likely outcome: Smith plays well in Chip Kelly’s offense, leaning on rookie running back Ashton Jeanty and second-year tight end Brock Bowers. The Raiders win more games than we’re used to them winning because Carroll is now the coach. They don’t make the playoffs, but they hang in the race longer than last season and go into 2026 with good vibes. At age 35, Smith is still not landing a whopper of a long-term contract, but Las Vegas adjusts his deal to bring it more in line with the market before going into 2026 as a team on the rise.

Long shot outcome: Things fall apart for Smith and the Raiders pick high in the draft and select their quarterback of the future. Smith sticks around, either to start until the rookie is ready or as the backup until another team wants to trade for him.

Current starter: Matthew Stafford
Signed through: 2026

Stafford’s making $44 million this year (all guaranteed) and then $40 million in 2026 (none of which is guaranteed). Now, he threw for 3,762 yards and 20 TDs last season. But he has also been dealing with a back issue in camp, and at 37 years old, Stafford has reached the point in his career where the decision on whether to continue playing comes after every season. So it’s entirely possible this is his final season (though he has indicated no such thing).

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The Rams had a tough time coming to an agreement with him on this year’s contract, even entertaining trade talks before he agreed to his restructured deal in February. So they know this arrangement isn’t forever. Their first-round trade with the Falcons in this year’s draft leaves them with two first-rounders in 2026, so they’re positioned to address the quarterback situation that way if they so choose.

Most likely outcome: Stafford answers the bell for Week 1 and has his usual strong season. The Rams make the playoffs and win a postseason game or two. Heck, maybe they even get to the Super Bowl and present Stafford with the chance to really go out in style. The dance repeats itself next offseason as he turns 38 in February, but this time Stafford and the Rams part ways, either because he decides to retire or they decide it’s time to pivot to another option. In this scenario, the Rams likely use those two first-round picks to address the position long term. But if they draft someone who isn’t ready yet, it’s easy to see them looking toward a reclamation project from the Kyle Shanahan tree like Mac Jones or Malik Willis.

Long shot outcome: The back remains an issue all season, leaving the Rams to piece things together around Jimmy Garoppolo and Stetson Bennett. This does not go well. The Rams miss the playoffs, say goodbye to Stafford and use their two first-round picks in a package to move up to select a quarterback No. 1 overall. This quarterback, under Sean McVay’s tutelage, goes on to win three Super Bowls for the franchise.

Current starter: Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough
Signed through: Rattler 2027, Shough 2028

The Saints have held a competition between Rattler, their fifth-round pick from 2024, and Shough, their second-round pick from 2025. Because Shough was the 40th pick with a new, offensive-minded coach in place, it has been assumed that he would have the edge. But Rattler had a strong offseason and might have done enough to hold Shough off — at least to start the season.

Because neither QB was a first-round pick, the Saints do not hold a fifth-year option on either of them. After this year, Rattler will have two years and about $2.3 million left on his contract, and he won’t be extension eligible until after the 2026 season. Shough will have three years and about $5.5 million left on his contract after 2025, and he won’t be extension eligible until after the 2027 season. Both players will be options for the Saints for the foreseeable future, assuming New Orleans wants them to be in the mix.

Most likely outcome: Rattler certainly has a shot to hold off Shough in the short term (or even the long term). Stranger things have happened. But the fact that the Saints drafted Shough as high as they did, just a few months after hiring Kellen Moore as their coach, indicates that Shough is likely to get a chance to show what he can do sooner or later. This is a very tough one to predict, but the most likely outcome is Shough develops into the starter by the end of the season and opens 2026 with the job.

Long shot outcome: The Saints have the worst team in the league, neither QB shows much promise and New Orleans uses the first pick in the 2026 draft to select a quarterback. With a combined $8 million left on their contracts, neither Rattler nor Shough represents any kind of obstacle if the Saints decide they want to go with a new option next year.

Current starter: Russell Wilson
Signed through: 2025

Coach Brian Daboll has said repeatedly that Wilson, 36, will open the season as the Giants’ starting quarterback, even though the team traded back into the first round to select Jaxson Dart in April’s draft and also signed Jameis Winston in March. Dart has performed well in two preseason games so far, and as Daboll’s handpicked choice, he’s sure to take over as the starter at some point.

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The question is whether that point comes this season, as it always seems to for first-round rookie quarterbacks. If so, then when? The Giants have a brutal-looking first-half schedule and could easily find themselves in a situation similar to the one they faced in 2004, when veteran Kurt Warner started the first nine games before giving way to a rookie first-round pick named Eli Manning.

Most likely outcome: The Giants struggle, Wilson looks as meh as he has the past three seasons and Dart takes over as the starter in the first half of the season. The question turns to whether the Giants can win enough games to convince ownership to stick with Daboll and let him continue to develop Dart in 2026. I say he gets the chance.

Long shot outcome: Wilson finds the fountain of youth. Malik Nabers emerges as a top-three wide receiver in the league. Andrew Thomas stays healthy at left tackle. The Giants’ pass rush fuels one of the league’s surprise top defenses. And the Giants pull a few upsets early to stay in contention all season. Wilson has a little nagging injury that leads to Winston starting two games somewhere along the way, but Dart rides the bench all season while the vets keep the team in the playoff hunt. Dart gets his chance to start in 2026.

Current starter: Justin Fields
Signed through: 2026

Fields got $30 million in guarantees in the contract he signed this offseason — $20 million this year and $10 million in 2026. Veteran Tyrod Taylor is the backup, and there’s no young high draft pick on the roster pushing to play anytime soon, so Fields likely gets the season to show what he can do.

Fields is still only 26 and on his third team, so there’s certainly a chance he blossoms as a passer while remaining one of the most productive runners in the NFL at the QB position (19 rushing TDs over 50 games). The coaching staff, including head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, is new, and there could be growing pains all around, so it’s fair to imagine the Jets stay patient with Fields even if he struggles early. If the Jets decide to look elsewhere for a QB solution next offseason, the $10 million guaranteed in 2026 won’t prevent them from doing so.

Most likely outcome: As he has throughout his career, Fields has his ups and downs, flashing the talent that made him the 11th pick in the 2021 draft. But he continues to struggle with consistency, especially as a passer. The Jets win six or seven games and don’t really factor into the playoff race. They keep Fields for 2026 … but bring in someone who represents stronger competition than Taylor. Maybe this ends up being Kenny Pickett’s next stop. Those first-round picks tend to get a lot of rope in this league.

play

1:26

Why Justin Fields is hard to decipher for fantasy managers

Field Yates breaks down how Justin Fields is a midtier QB2 with the potential for a handful of big games.

Long shot outcome: Fields makes a major leap as a passer, and his legs help the Jets field one of the most effective overall run games in the NFL. The Jets win 10 or 11 games and claim an AFC wild-card spot, and they reward Fields with a contract extension next offseason.

Current starter: Aaron Rodgers
Signed through: 2025

Rodgers will turn 42 in December. He managed to play all 17 games for the Jets last season, but he was statistically among the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. He missed basically the entire 2023 season after tearing his left Achilles early in the first game, and frankly, he wasn’t very good in his final year with the Packers in 2022 (41.3 QBR, 26th in the NFL that year).

The Steelers keep managing to squeak into the playoffs but also keep losing in the first round. They’re hoping Rodgers can help them buck that trend, but again, he’s going to be 42 by the time the playoffs start — and there are 17 quarterbacks who have won NFL playoff games since Rodgers last won one.

Rodgers has come out and said this is likely to be his last season in the NFL. The question is whether he can make it all the way through it. The Steelers have a young offensive line that still has some questions to answer, a thin wide receiver group beyond DK Metcalf and a run game that could rely on rookie running back Kaleb Johnson. There really isn’t a quarterback on the roster who will push Rodgers for playing time even if he struggles, so there are legitimate questions about where coach Mike Tomlin would turn if Rodgers just doesn’t have it anymore or gets injured.

Most likely outcome: Rodgers has yet another poor-to-mediocre season, but the Steelers’ defense keeps them in games. They run it enough to steal a few low-scoring matchups, finish 9-8 and contend for the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff field. Then Rodgers retires at the end of the season, and the Steelers look at next year’s draft class for the long-term QB they really need.

Long shot outcome: Rodgers has one more brilliant season left in him, and it’s this one. He and Metcalf form a potent connection. The line jells in front of him. Johnson, along with fellow running backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, power the offense around Rodgers. And the defense is its usual stifling self. The Steelers win the AFC North and finally break their playoff drought, advancing to the Super Bowl, where Rodgers has a chance for a storybook ending to his career — and retires after the season.

play

1:54

Can Aaron Rodgers live up to his legacy in Pittsburgh?

Mike Tannenbaum debates whether Aaron Rodgers’ best days are already behind him as he looks to make the Steelers contenders again.

Current starter: Sam Darnold
Signed through: 2027

Darnold signed a three-year contract with the Seahawks this offseason after throwing 35 touchdown passes and leading Minnesota to a 14-3 record in 2024. But a closer look reveals that Seattle isn’t really committed to him beyond 2025.

He got $37.5 million in guaranteed money, and all of that comes this season. He’s scheduled to make $27.5 million in 2026. None of that 2026 money is guaranteed right now, but $17.5 million of it becomes guaranteed if he’s still on the roster five days after the Super Bowl. So Seattle will have to decide pretty early whether they want him back in 2026. If he’s still there in 2027, he’d be owed $35.5 million. But let’s be honest: If he’s still there in 2027, the Seahawks are probably extending him.

Darnold turned 28 in June, so the question is whether last season represented a turning point in his career or whether it was a product of the Vikings’ brilliant QB infrastructure. Seattle, which went into the offseason expecting to extend Geno Smith and had to pivot once it found out Smith preferred to be elsewhere, has built the contract in a way that allows flexibility if Darnold turns back into a pumpkin.

Most likely outcome: Seattle relies on its defense and run game to contend for the playoffs in Mike Macdonald’s second season as the coach. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak builds on the progress Darnold made with Kevin O’Connell last year, the offensive line situation is better and the Seahawks win more games than they lose. Darnold has a do-no-harm year that convinces Seattle to bring him back in 2026.

Long shot outcome: Darnold takes another leap, actually improving on his 2024 success and delivering on the promise that made him the No. 3 pick in 2018 with the Jets. As draft classmate Baker Mayfield has in Tampa Bay, Darnold finds his place in Seattle and leads the Seahawks to the playoffs. Next offseason, they tear up the contract and give him a new, much larger one.

Current starter: Baker Mayfield
Signed through: 2026

Mayfield signed with the Bucs ahead of the 2023 season on a low-cost, one-year prove-it deal after playing for three different teams over the previous two seasons. Taking the spot of the retired Tom Brady, Mayfield kept the train on the tracks and led the Buccaneers to a division title that season. He got a new contract and a new offensive coordinator in 2024, and then led the Bucs to a fourth straight division title. His 41 touchdown passes tied for the second most in the NFL behind Joe Burrow, and he was third in completion percentage at 71.4%.

Look ahead to the 2026 NFL draft

• Early mock drafts: Yates | Miller | Reid
• Top five by position | Top QBs to know
• Race to No. 1 | 10 sleepers | Read more

A few weeks ago, the Buccaneers adjusted Mayfield’s contract to guarantee him $30 million for the 2026 season, which indicates a strong commitment to him. A longer and more substantial extension for Mayfield is not out of the question and could come during this season or next offseason.

Honestly, I’m starting to wonder why I’m even mentioning Mayfield and the Buccaneers here …

Most likely outcome: The Buccaneers have one of the best teams in the NFC, make the playoffs again and make a run at the Super Bowl with the best roster they’ve had since Brady’s 2020 season. Mayfield gets a full-size extension next offseason and says he looks forward to finishing his career in Tampa Bay.

Long shot outcome: The Bucs miss the playoffs and are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. They end up with a high enough draft pick to make them rethink their commitment to Mayfield.



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Predicting NFL teams most likely to decline in 2025 season
Esports

Predicting NFL teams most likely to decline in 2025 season

by admin August 20, 2025


  • Bill BarnwellAug 19, 2025, 06:15 AM ET

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      Bill Barnwell is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. He analyzes football on and off the field like no one else on the planet, writing about in-season X’s and O’s, offseason transactions and so much more.

      He is the host of the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, with episodes released weekly. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland.

I’ve been looking forward to this column for months. On Monday, I published my annual look at the five teams most likely to improve in the upcoming NFL season. In the years I’ve been writing that column, those teams have improved 31 of 38 times, or more than 81% of the time.

Each year, I also break down the teams that are most likely to decline. This column has had a virtually identical success rate; after last year, it’s 30 for 38. It went 3-2 last year, correctly pegging the Ravens (who dropped from 13-4 to 12-5), Giants (6-11 to 3-14) and Browns (11-6 to 3-14) as teams that would lose more games.

The two that defied my predictions will stick in my mind for a while. The Steelers defied the odds again, maintaining their 10-7 record. They’re responsible for two of those eight times in which a team didn’t decline, and the Steelers came within one win of doing it a third time in 2022. Spoiler: They’re not on my list below.

The other team did a little more than maintain its record from the previous season. The Eagles did not decline from their 11-6 mark in 2023. They went 14-3, then followed that by blitzing through the NFC playoffs and blowing out the Chiefs in Super Bowl LX. When I ranked the top 25 teams of the past 25 years earlier this offseason, I put the 2024 Eagles at No. 4. After their early-season bye, they were comfortably the league’s best team.

So, what did I miss? A massive improvement in their underlying level of play, driven by better players and coaching. This column uses 2024 data and underlying metrics to estimate each team’s true level of performance. Though every team makes offseason changes, history tells us the information from the previous season helps predict what will happen in the year to come.

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More: Predicting teams that will win more games

The Eagles’ changes turned out to be more impactful than almost any in recent memory. It’s rare for a team to land a player in free agency who becomes a first-team All-Pro. General manager Howie Roseman signed two — running back Saquon Barkley and linebacker Zack Baun. After cornerback was a major problem in 2023, Roseman used his first two picks in the draft on Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. I wrote last year that rookie cornerbacks often struggle in their debut seasons, which is true, but often doesn’t mean always. Mitchell and DeJean were stars, with the Eagles morphing from one of the league’s worst defenses by EPA per play during their 2-2 start to the league’s best once DeJean entered the lineup in the slot.

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The Eagles also made strong upgrades at coordinator, as Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore were excellent. Throw in some of the league’s second-healthiest season by adjusted games lost, a 7-2 record in one-score games and the fifth-easiest schedule, and it was a special campaign.

Should I have seen that coming? Maybe. Barkley was going from what might have been the league’s worst situation for running backs to arguably its best, although the concern for him has usually been health, not ability. He was a revelation last season. Fangio and Moore had essentially been fired from their prior jobs, but Fangio was excellent with the Bears and 49ers, and the Eagles were a disaster with Matt Patricia as defensive coordinator by the end of 2023. I thought they could be better on defense but didn’t expect them to be the league’s best for most of the season. They had one of the league’s easiest projected schedules, which I shouldn’t have discounted. If you saw Baun turning into the league’s most productive linebacker, well, I suspect there are quite a few NFL teams that would like to hire you.

Of course, the Eagles were also in the decline column in 2023, when they dropped from 14-3 to 11-6 and then got blown out in the postseason. (Guess which season I heard more about on social media.) The same data that was unreliable and got Philadelphia utterly wrong in 2024 raised concerns about its health and defense and suggested it would have “10 to 12 wins” in 2023.

Being right in 2023 doesn’t make me any less wrong about 2024, but it reinforces how difficult it is to project the season ahead. The Browns and Eagles had the same record in 2023. Data is often helpful in trying to make predictions, but it’s no match for a team adding four Pro Bowl-plus players and dramatically improving its play. All I can do is tip my cap.

Jump to a team:
Chiefs | Colts
Commanders | Lions | Vikings

Record in 2024: 15-2
Point differential in 2024: plus-59
2024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 10-0
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Sixth toughest in NFL

Two years after the Vikings became the first team in league history to go 9-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer, the Chiefs took things a step further. Andy Reid’s team was an unprecedented 10-0 in one-score games last season. And as always, while there are situations in which a late score can make a game look closer than it actually was, the Chiefs really were getting opponents to slip on banana peels and knock themselves out at the most opportune times. Let’s relive just how narrow so many of Kansas City’s victories were:

  • In the season opener, a Lamar Jackson touchdown pass to Isaiah Likely as time expired seemed to extend the game. As the Ravens were about to line up for a two-pointer, a review found that Likely was out of bounds by half of a toenail, ending the contest.

  • The following week, the Chiefs faced a fourth-and-16 with 48 seconds left against the Bengals, only to be bailed out by a 29-yard pass interference penalty on rookie safety Daijahn Anthony. (Before the conspiracy theorists weigh in, keep in mind that a 21-yard conversion on the prior fourth-and-6 was wiped off by an illegal hands to the face penalty on Chiefs tackle Wanya Morris.) The penalty set up a game-winning field goal from 51 yards out by Harrison Butker.

  • In Week 3, defending a five-point lead in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs came up with two red zone stops on consecutive drives to stop the Falcons, including a controversial no-call on what looked to be pass interference against Kyle Pitts.

  • Six weeks later, a Baker Mayfield two-minute drill produced a touchdown pass with 30 seconds to go. Unlike the Ravens in Week 1, Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles elected to kick an extra point and send the game to overtime, where the Chiefs won the coin toss and marched downfield for a touchdown.

  • The following week, the Broncos were in position to seal a statement victory over their divisional rivals, but Leo Chenal blocked a 35-yard field goal attempt that would have won the game for Denver, handing the Chiefs a 16-14 win.

  • In Week 12, the Panthers drove downfield for a game-tying touchdown and two-pointer, aided by a pair of pass interference penalties on Kansas City. With 1:46 to go, a Patrick Mahomes 33-yard scramble got the Chiefs into range for a short field goal to win at the buzzer.

  • In Week 13, the Chiefs somehow survived a pair of Raiders drives to hold onto a two-point lead in the fourth quarter. Daniel Carlson missed a 58-yard field goal that would have given Las Vegas the lead with 2:21 to go, and after a Kansas City three-and-out took just 14 seconds off the clock, the Raiders drove into position for another field goal, only to lose the ball on an aborted shotgun snap with 14 seconds left.

  • In Week 14, after a Cameron Dicker field goal gave the Chargers a two-point lead with 4:39 to go, Mahomes & Co. converted three consecutive third downs to drive downfield and eat up the clock. Then, a Matthew Wright field goal bounced off the uprights and in, clinching a ninth consecutive division title.

A pair of seven-point victories over the Chargers and Raiders weren’t quite as close. Maybe it’s unfair to include the Panthers game when Carolina never had the ball with a chance to tie the game or take the lead. There’s no guarantee the Buccaneers or Ravens would have converted their two-pointers, or that the Raiders or Broncos would have hit their field goals to win their respective games. Maybe it’s not fair to treat these games as some collective combination of Chiefs magic and spectacular luck.

And yet, at the same time, you really have to blindly believe to treat this as proof of a dominant team turning on the gas when it most needed it. Was it Mahomes and the offense coming up with key plays at the exact right time? Some weeks, yes. Against the Ravens, Falcons, Bucs, Panthers and Raiders, though, the Chiefs had a chance to chew up the clock and seal victories with first downs but couldn’t sustain their drives, handing the ball back to the opposing team. Most of those drives were three-and-outs.

play

1:42

Why Stephen A. says the Chiefs’ road back to the SB is hard

Stephen A. Smith discusses the improved AFC teams and why the Chiefs have a harder route to return to the Super Bowl than the Eagles.

Was it Steve Spagnuolo’s opportunistic defense closing the door with a well-timed blitz or big play, as Kansas City did against the Bills in the AFC title game? Again, only sometimes. The Chiefs blew late leads on defense against the Bucs and Panthers and came within an inch of doing so against the Ravens. The Falcons drove twice into the red zone and were let down by a missed call in the end zone that would have given them first-and-goal on the 1-yard line. The Broncos converted three third downs to get into field goal range before the Chenal block. Las Vegas quarterback Aidan O’Connell converted five straight passes to get into field goal range before the bungled exchange. That isn’t the résumé of a great defense shutting down teams when the game’s on the line, even if the results ended up looking good for Kansas City.

Do the Chiefs have a psychic hold late in games on the rest of the league? Depends on when you look. They went 8-0 in one-score games in 2021 and 10-0 in those same contests last season. In Mahomes’ other seasons as the starter, they went 25-17 in those one-score contests with him on the field, including a 3-4 mark in 2023. That total — 43-17 — is a spectacular record in one-score games, but even treating Mahomes as an outlier relative to the rest of the league (and I’m willing to believe that possibility), 10-0 is impossibly unsustainable.

The Chiefs had the point differential of a 10.2-win team, owing in part to a 38-0 loss to the Broncos in Week 18 when Mahomes and virtually every other star took most (or all) of the game off. Remove that game and the Chiefs went 15-1 with a 10.7-win point differential. Every other 14-plus win team since 1989 had a point differential of 100 points or more, with their average point differential coming in at 190 points per 17 games. Kansas City had a point differential of plus-59.

The 2024 Chiefs finished the season with the largest gap between their actual record and Pythagorean expected record of any team since 1989, coming in just ahead of the 2022 Vikings. The 30 teams with the largest gap between those two figures over that time span declined by an average of 3.2 wins per 17 games. They went from outperforming their Pythagorean expectation by 3.2 wins to just 0.1 wins per team the following season. In other words, for the vast majority of these teams, they weren’t able to defy what history tells us about point differential for more than one season.

Could the Chiefs be the exception? Of course. Mahomes is the best quarterback of his generation. There’s significant talent on both sides of the ball, and the brain trust of Reid and Spagnuolo are back. The Chiefs spent all of last season dealing with a turnstile at left tackle, a problem they believe they’ve solved after signing Jaylon Moore and drafting Josh Simmons in Round 1. They didn’t have wideout Rashee Rice for most of the season after a knee injury in September, and Isiah Pacheco’s fractured fibula neutered the run game. They converted just under 54% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, the worst rate they have posted in a single season during the Mahomes era. As we saw with the Eagles last season, one way to defy what the numbers suggest is to massively improve your underlying level of play.

Even if the Chiefs improve on a play-by-play basis, there’s a huge gap between the team they were a year ago and what their record suggested. The left side of their line is a huge question mark between tackle and guard, where Kingsley Suamataia might settle after flaming out at tackle. They lost an underrated veteran in safety Justin Reid, who was one of the league’s best tacklers during his time in Kansas City. Rice is likely to miss time with a potential suspension, and tight end Travis Kelce took a major step backward in his age-35 season. Opposing kickers hit a league-low 81.8% of their kicks against Kansas City in 2024, including misses and blocks at the most inopportune times. Can the Chiefs really count on that again?

Of course, all of this isn’t to suggest the Chiefs will be anything short of a Super Bowl contender. They were on this very list before the 2021 season, when they fell from 14-2 to 12-5. That team came within a few yards of making it back to the Super Bowl. Twelve wins and another deep playoff run seem like a reasonable expectation for this team, too.

Record in 2024: 14-3
Point differential in 2024: plus-100
2024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 8-1
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Fourth toughest in NFL

After mentioning the 2022 Vikings in the Chiefs’ conversation, perhaps it’s only fitting that Minnesota returns as the next team on this list. The 2022 Vikings were one of the more obvious candidates I’ve ever seen for decline, as they went 13-4 while being outscored by three points. That team finished 28th in DVOA, suggesting they were, on a snap-by-snap basis, one of the league’s worst teams. They were immediately bounced from the playoffs at home by a Giants team that ranked 23rd by the same metric.

The 2024 Vikings were different. For one, they were much better. They went 14-3 with the league’s seventh-best DVOA. They played the ninth-toughest schedule. The 2022 Vikings were passengers on defense, with coordinator Ed Donatell fielding one of the most confusingly passive units in recent memory. The 2024 Vikings were the league’s most entertaining and perhaps its most aggressive defense, throwing everything from Cover-0 blitzes to drop-eight coverages from the same pre-snap looks and confounding opposing quarterbacks in the process.

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The Vikings went 8-1 in one-score games last season. If they had done that after the 2022 season, Kevin O’Connell would be lauded as the game management wizard of his generation. Instead, they went 4-8 in one-score games between those two seasons, and while things might have been different if Kirk Cousins had stayed healthy, four of those losses came in the first five weeks, when Cousins was on the field. O’Connell is still an excellent coach, but he’s probably not going to win 88% of his close games again.

Let’s talk about that defense. Can the Vikings keep their level of play up? While acknowledging they have a great front seven and an excellent coordinator, I’d be a little nervous. They led the league in turnovers (33) and were second in turnover rate (16.6% of opposing drives), trailing only the Bills. Defense is more difficult to sustain than offense, and successful defenses built around high turnover margins are even tougher to maintain from year to year. The Bills were able to do that between 2023 and 2024, but the other teams directly below them in turnover rate two years ago were the 49ers, Bears, Cowboys, Ravens and Saints, none of whom were able to sustain their takeaway rate in 2024. Their defenses all took a meaningful step backward.

That’s not a one-year trend, either. Looking at 2000 to 2023 and the teams that ranked in the top five in turnovers per drive — as the Vikings did a year ago — just 17% of those teams finished in the top five again the following season. Their average rank in turnover rate was 15th. Minnesota could certainly field an excellent defense again, but it probably won’t lead the league in turnovers.

Are there reasons to think the Vikings will simply field better defensive talent? I’m not sure. They were the league’s fifth-healthiest defense a year ago by adjusted games lost, per the new FTN Football Almanac, and they fielded the league’s oldest defense on a snap-weighted age basis. In fact, with the league’s fifth-oldest offense, they were the league’s oldest team on a play-by-play basis. That isn’t inherently disqualifying, but it’s a reality of where they were with their roster construction.

The Vikings were able to get very good play from three veteran cornerbacks in Byron Murphy, Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin. Gilmore and Griffin are gone, so they will be younger at the position, but the players replacing the three veterans haven’t been great elsewhere. Isaiah Rodgers was buried on the depth chart in Philadelphia, while Jeff Okudah and Tavierre Thomas have bounced around the league with limited results. Minnesota is better-equipped to handle the departure of starting safety Cam Bynum, who left as part of the various free agent exchanges the Colts and Vikings made this offseason, but it’s fair to say the expectations for the secondary have to be below what Vikings fans saw last season.

They’ll try to make up for it on the front end, where they … got older by importing two new defensive tackles on the wrong side of 30. Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were both stars earlier in their career, but they combined to play just 11 games last season because of injuries. Allen and Hargrave are big swings, and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has generally done excellent work in free agency, so there are reasons to be optimistic the Vikings’ front will be even more devastating than it was in 2024.

Adofo-Mensah upgraded the interior of the offensive line, too, bringing in Ryan Kelly and Will Fries from Indianapolis before using his first-round pick on guard Donovan Jackson. The interior line has been a weakness seemingly since the Steve Hutchinson days, so I can’t take any issue with the idea of upgrading those spots. In practice, they should be better than the Ed Ingrams and Garrett Bradburys of the world, but Fries is coming off a broken leg, while Kelly is 32 and hasn’t been the same player he was during his peak seasons. The Vikings also get back left tackle Christian Darrisaw after he suffered a season-ending torn ACL and MCL in midseason last year.

play

1:10

Why Damien Woody trusts Kevin O’Connell

Damien Woody explains why he expects Kevin O’Connell to get the best out of J.J. McCarthy with the Vikings.

The most notable player returning from injury is quarterback J.J. McCarthy. He’ll take over for Sam Darnold, who ranked 14th in Total QBR last season. While Darnold averaged nearly 8.0 yards per attempt in a resurgent performance, he threw 12 interceptions, fumbled eight times and took sacks on more than 8% of his dropbacks. The Vikings were tied for the fourth-most drives in the league, which inflated some of his cumulative stats, both good and bad.

One way for the Vikings and McCarthy to overcome any sort of turnover-induced dip on defense would be to simply protect the ball more reliably. They ranked 18th in turnover rate on a drive-by-drive basis, and they scored just two touchdowns across the 45 drives in which Darnold took at least one sack. They seem set to move toward more of a rotation at running back after Aaron Jones fumbled five times last season. If McCarthy protects the football and takes drive-destroying sacks less often, Minnesota could improve by avoiding negative plays more often.

The Vikings are a pretty unique team. The age of their roster and the moves they have made suggest they’re trying to win right now, but they have what essentially amounts to a rookie quarterback leading the way. And while we normally associate debuting quarterbacks with subpar teams and young rosters, McCarthy is taking over a 14-win team, something I’m not sure has ever happened in the modern era. I’m not expecting a dropoff below .500 like the one we saw in 2023, but a record more in line with their 11.1-win point differential from 2024 would make sense.

Record in 2024: 12-5
Point differential in 2024: plus-94
2024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 8-2
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Seventh toughest in NFL

The Commanders join the Chiefs as teams that succeeded after being on last year’s most likely to improve list but are tabbed most likely to decline this season. Washington made one of the biggest single-season leaps in recent league history, improving from four wins in 2023 to 12 last season. Then, the Commanders beat the Bucs and Lions in the playoffs before running out of steam in the NFC title game against the Eagles.

Though I was optimistic about the Commanders last season, I thought they would win around eight games and didn’t expect them to make a deep playoff run. Last season, they fixed their biggest problem from the previous season, creating turnovers. The Commanders jumped from a minus-14 turnover margin in 2023 to plus-one last season, though that mostly occurred by dramatically cutting their turnovers on offense.

I hesitated comparing last year’s Commanders with the 2023 Texans, but that turned out to be a great comp in many ways. The Texans accelerated their rebuild by surrounding a talented young quarterback who cut down on the team’s giveaways with a defensive-minded coach and one of the league’s older rosters. In 2024, though they still won the AFC South, they stagnated a bit; the offseason improvements didn’t click, there weren’t many young players (other than Will Anderson Jr. and the secondary) who became impact contributors, and they relied too much on their young quarterback to bail them out. Houston was still good, but it didn’t take the next step many expected.

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We might see the same productions from the Commanders, who fielded the league’s seventh-oldest team last season on a snap-weighted age basis, despite quarterback Jayden Daniels and cornerback Mike Sainristil being wildly impressive in their debut seasons. Getting little out of the draft picks from the Ron Rivera era, general manager Adam Peters covered up holes throughout the roster by adding a bevy of veteran free agents, similar to what Nick Caserio did in Houston. There’s nothing wrong with that philosophy. Peters should be lauded for hitting on edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr., safety Jeremy Chinn, linebacker Frankie Luvu and center Tyler Biadasz, but some of those free agents are gone, and linebacker Bobby Wagner, 35, and tight end Zach Ertz, 34, are in their mid-30s.

Peters has also made aggressive trades to add veterans, and though there’s understandable logic behind those moves, they came at a cost to the Commanders. The deal for cornerback Marshon Lattimore didn’t deliver much last season. Offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil was brought in from the Texans, and Peters made a move with his former team to acquire wideout Deebo Samuel from the 49ers. Washington had just three top-200 picks in April’s draft as a result, and it will again field one of the league’s oldest teams. That means there aren’t a ton of young players on this roster who might improve in 2025.

The Commanders need those players because they might not have the same fortune they had in 2024. They were the league’s fifth-healthiest team by adjusted games lost, ranking among the six healthiest offenses and defenses. That doesn’t include Sam Cosmi, who was Washington’s best lineman for most of 2024 before he suffered a torn ACL in the postseason. It’s unclear whether he’ll be healthy enough to start the season on the active roster.

The Commanders went 8-2 in one-score games and enjoyed more incredible moments than some teams have in a decade. That record doesn’t even include the 86-yard touchdown pass Daniels threw to Terry McLaurin with 21 seconds left against the Cowboys in a game the Commanders eventually lost by eight points. (I don’t treat eight-point margins as one-score games because teams can’t win the game on a single drive and to allow for comparisons between now and the pre-2-point conversion era. If you prefer to consider eight points as a one-score game, the Commanders went 8-4 in those contests.)

Washington’s wildest victory, of course, was decided on the Hail Mary that snatched victory away from the Bears, seemingly sending Chicago into a tailspin. That was the most dramatic of the Commanders’ narrow wins, but it wasn’t the only unlikely or impossibly close triumph:

  • In Week 2, with the score tied at 18, Malik Nabers dropped a fourth-down pass that would have given the Giants a first down with 2:04 to go. The Commanders would have had the two-minute warning and all of their timeouts to stop the Giants, but New York would have been in position to kick a field goal to take the lead, if not score a touchdown. Instead, Daniels hit Noah Brown for a 34-yard gain two plays later, and Washington kicked a game-winning field goal.

  • In Week 15, Spencer Rattler threw a touchdown pass to Foster Moreau with no time remaining, bringing the Saints within one point. Interim coach Darren Rizzi (correctly) went for two and the win, but Rattler’s pass was broken up for a Commanders victory.

  • The following week, after Daniels’ interception late in the fourth quarter of a three-point game, the Eagles were in position to close out the game. Facing a third-and-5 with 2:07 to go, a wide-open DeVonta Smith dropped a pass that would have allowed the Eagles to run the clock down within 30 seconds and drain the Commanders of their timeouts. Instead, Philadelphia kicked a field goal to go up five, and Daniels marched Washington downfield with one timeout for a game-winning touchdown.

  • In Week 17, the Commanders allowed a late touchdown drive to Michael Penix Jr. to tie the score. After a three-and-out, the Falcons drove back into field goal range for the potential winning kick, but backup kicker Riley Patterson missed a 56-yard attempt as time expired. The Commanders won the coin toss and scored a touchdown on the only drive of overtime.

  • And finally, in Week 18, Marcus Mariota ran for 33 yards on a fourth-and-1 with 33 seconds to go to extend the game against Dallas before hitting McLaurin for a touchdown pass with six seconds left, earning Washington a 23-19 victory.

Is Daniels devastating when defenses give him an opportunity to win the game in the fourth quarter or overtime? Absolutely. Was he lucky to get so many opportunities after drops by the other team and missed field goal attempts at inopportune times? Of course. And when teams scored late and made their 2-point conversions to take the lead — as the Bears did with 27 seconds left in Washington — there was even more magic waiting from the rookie sensation. It’s tough to see Daniels getting that many opportunities again, even if he’s up to the task of succeeding when he does.

play

1:11

What is holding up Terry McLaurin’s contract talks with the Commanders?

Adam Schefter discusses if the Commanders can reach an agreement on Terry McLaurin’s contract.

There’s one more thing that is incredibly important to the 2024 Commanders and is unlikely to recur: what they did on fourth down. Coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury should be lauded for leaning into the strength of their team and staying aggressive on fourth down, but the results were almost unprecedented. When they needed a fourth-down conversion, Daniels came through more often than anybody could expect.

During the regular season, the Commanders went 20-of-23 on fourth downs, good for an 87% conversion clip. That was 14 percentage points better than any other team last season. ESPN has fourth-down data going back to 2000, and no team has gone for it on fourth down more than 10 times in a season and converted more often than Washington did in 2024.

The Commanders scored 115 points on drives after converting at least one fourth down, the most by any team over that span. Given how conservative teams were on fourth down before attitudes changed about analytics over the past decade, I would strongly suspect no team has scored more points from its fourth-down approach in NFL history than the 2024 Commanders.

Daniels & Co. will give opposing defenses pause on fourth downs, but asking them to convert at historically high rates is too much. That was a special season, and assuming Daniels stays healthy, the Commanders should be in the mix for a playoff berth again. But it will be something closer to a consolidation year than the next step toward greatness in the DMV.

Record in 2024: 8-9
Point differential in 2024: minus-50
2024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 7-4
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: 13th easiest in NFL

Admit it: If you aren’t a fan of the franchise, did you know the Colts won eight games last season? With conversations about them dominated by the Anthony Richardson discussion, it feels like they were one of the league’s worst teams. In reality, they weren’t great, but they were within one game of a winning record. They had the point differential of a 7.3-win team, which means they outperformed their underlying performance by just under one victory; that’s not usually a team I would target here.

And yet, if you look at those eight wins more closely, it’s hard to feel like the Colts were on the same level with, say, the Cardinals or Falcons. The Colts beat the Steelers, but their other six wins came against teams with a combined record of 32-87. Six of their eight wins came over teams that finished with one of the 10 worst records, including a sweep over the Titans and victories over the Patriots and Jaguars. If they had swept the Jags or beaten the Giants late in the season, they could have ridden multiple wins over the league’s worst teams to a winning record.

One of the privileges of playing in the AFC South is facing relatively easy opponents annually. By my schedule metric, which considers point differential by opponents in games not involving the Colts, Indy faced the league’s fourth-easiest schedule. That’s up to only 13th this season, per FPI, but if the Jags or Titans take a step forward, the Colts might have to face a league-average slate.

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It’s not just which teams they played, but when the Colts played them and who was the opposing quarterback. Though they were dealing with their own quarterback situation each week, they avoided the opposing team’s preferred signal-caller more often than just about any other team. I track how often each team faces opposing No. 1 quarterbacks. Last season, just over 36% of pass attempts by opposing quarterbacks against Indianapolis came from QBs who likely weren’t their team’s preferred option if everybody was available. That included:

Four of the Colts’ eight wins came against backup quarterbacks, including their only two victories of the season against competitive teams. There’s no way to ensure they will face something short of their opposing team’s preferred option 35% of the time next season, and they weren’t very good against preferred starting quarterbacks.

The Colts might respond that their quarterback play will be better. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to see a path forward with Richardson. After adjusting for era, he had the worst completion percentage for any quarterback with 200 attempts or more in a season in NFL history, topping Akili Smith, Tim Tebow and Ryan Leaf. Richardson’s average pass traveled farther than any other passer last season, which helps explain some of the completion issues, but we don’t see quarterbacks miss as many receivers as he did.

Richardson led the league in yards per completion (14.4), which explains why his yards per dropback were 19th, ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix. Richardson threw interceptions on 4.5% of his dropbacks, though, and even when factoring in his impact as a scrambler and on designed runs, Total QBR ranked him 27th in the league.

The quarterback just ahead of him in 26th? That was Daniel Jones. Though Jones might offer safer hands and a better interception rate, that comes with a lack of upside. He ranked 34th in yards per dropback last season, topping only Caleb Williams and Deshaun Watson. Jones’ 6.1 yards per attempt ranked 35th. And though Richardson’s athleticism allows him to avoid sacks, Jones has an 8.5% sack rate across six pro seasons. Sacks are better than interceptions, but they’re still drive-killers.

The other problem with this duo: Neither has a great track record for health. Richardson missed most of his rookie season because of a shoulder injury, then missed time in 2024 because of hip and back ailments (in addition to his midseason benching). He was reportedly battling shoulder soreness during OTAs before dislocating a finger on a hit earlier this preseason. It’s tough to project a full season for him, even if he were up to the challenge performance-wise.

play

0:45

Holder: Tyler Warren looks ‘fantastic’ at Colts camp

Stephen Holder breaks down how Colts first-round draft pick TE Tyler Warren is looking fantastic at Colts training camp.

Unfortunately, Jones has an even bigger list of injuries. He has torn his ACL, suffered a season-ending neck injury and missed games because of multiple hamstring and ankle issues. Leaving aside his season-ending run on the bench with the Vikings, he missed 22 of 90 possible games since taking over as the starter in New York early in the 2019 season. He has completed one healthy year in six pro campaigns: 2022, which was his only above-average season as a passer.

It feels like the Colts will be cycling between quarterbacks this season because of injuries or subpar play. They’re down two starters on the offensive line after Ryan Kelly and Will Fries signed with the Vikings, with Tanor Bortolini and Matt Goncalves likely earning promotions.

The Colts can exceed expectations in two ways. One is getting better-than-expected play at quarterback. It’s possible they get the 2022 version of Jones, or that Richardson takes an enormous leap forward. But are either of those scenarios very likely? (Note: The Colts named Jones the starter on Tuesday morning.)

The other is improving their defense, where they led the league in missed tackles by a considerable margin last season. General manager Chris Ballard made some good offseason moves to address a long-suffering secondary, signing Charvarius Ward and adding Cam Bynum. Both have been above-average tacklers. Moving on from safety Julian Blackmon and linebacker E.J. Speed could be addition by subtraction, in terms of missed tackles.

Swapping out Gus Bradley for creative former Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo should also be a positive, although the veteran coordinator couldn’t coax much out of the Cincinnati defense after a run to the Super Bowl in 2021. With more starting quarterbacks on the way and questions about what the Colts can offer under center, there are too many scenarios where they struggle to make it back to eight wins.

Record in 2024: 15-2
Point differential in 2024: plus-222
2024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 7-2
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Second toughest in NFL

Unlike their 15-win counterparts in the AFC, the Lions have a much stronger case to be considered something close to a dominant team, at least based on how they played in the regular season. They beat teams by an average of more than 13 points per contest and had one of the 10 best point differentials per game since 1989. Six of the nine teams that finished with better point differentials than the 2024 Lions made it to the Super Bowl.

The Lions went 7-2 in one-score games, but again, they weren’t as reliant on narrow victories as the Chiefs. Detroit needed a late field goal to avoid a loss to the Vikings and kicked some more as time expired to break ties against the Texans and Packers, but they also had a handful of one-score games that looked close only because of late touchdowns in garbage time by the opposing offense.

And though the Lions were eliminated at home in a 45-31 loss to the Commanders in the divisional round, Detroit fans have a legitimate, significant excuse: Some of them were being called out of the stands to play cornerback against Jayden Daniels. The Lions were down virtually all of their significant pass rushers and multiple starting defensive backs by game’s end. Coordinator Aaron Glenn kept the defense afloat without Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill by repeatedly turning the blitz meter higher and higher, but the Lions finally broke against a very good offense. They couldn’t survive turning the ball over five times with a defense in tatters.

Every year, something I hear from fans is that there’s some element of their team that can’t be worse than it was a year ago. Usually, that isn’t true. One of the few exceptions I’m considering is the health of the Detroit defense. Glenn’s unit ranked last in adjusted games lost. It was the sixth-most-injured defense of the past 25 seasons. The Lions will be healthier on defense this season, which could lead to them being better than last season.

The missing piece of information, as the FTN Football Almanac notes, is what happened on the other side of the ball. While everyone rightly noticed the Lions’ defense was an injured wreck, the Lions’ offense was spectacularly healthy. Detroit had the league’s second-healthiest offense in 2024. Depending on who you consider to be starters, its top 11 players missed just 10 games last season: Three from left tackle Taylor Decker, three more by running back David Montgomery, and one each from guard Graham Glasgow, center Frank Ragnow, tight end Sam LaPorta and guard Kevin Zeitler.

The Lions finished 25th in combined AGL; they should be healthier this season, but more injuries on offense likely will offset some of the improvements on defense. They’re already down defensive lineman Levi Onwuzurike and cornerback Ennis Rakestraw, both of whom are out for the season.

The other reason for concern about the offense looms in the middle of the line. While the Lions have great tackles in Decker and superstar Penei Sewell, the interior of their line is suddenly an obvious place for opposing teams to attack. They lost Jonah Jackson last year and replaced him with a solid veteran in Zeitler, who left for Tennessee in the offseason. Ragnow, a four-time Pro Bowler, unexpectedly retired at 29.

Now, the Lions are moving around players. They used a second-round pick on Tate Ratledge and intended to move him to center, but several days into camp, they shifted him back to guard and pushed Glasgow to center. The new starter at left guard will be Christian Mahogany, a 2024 sixth-round pick who looked promising in two spot starts last season, but that was alongside Ragnow, one of the league’s best centers. Coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes deserve some benefit of the doubt based on their success, but it’s fair to be nervous that a line with two inexperienced starters and three players in new spots will take some time to jell, if not struggle notably.

That’s a real concern because keeping Jared Goff unbothered and free to operate within the pocket has been essential. Every quarterback gets worse under pressure, but Goff has bigger splits than any other passer. Over the past three seasons, he leads all quarterbacks in Total QBR (78.2) when opposing defenses don’t get home with pressure. When they do, his 17.6 QBR is 28th. If the Lions can’t handle interior pressure, teams will give Goff fits. Keep in mind that the Bears (Grady Jarrett) and Vikings (Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen) added veteran defensive tackles with pass-rush bite this offseason.

There’s also uncertainty about whether the Lions will have as many answers from their coaching staff after losing Glenn and Ben Johnson to head coaching gigs elsewhere. Campbell brought back John Morton from Denver as his offensive coordinator and promoted linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard as the defensive coordinator. It’s admirable to see a coach promote from within, and Johnson wasn’t a household name before he emerged as the league’s hottest coordinator over the past two years, but the bar here on both sides of the ball is extremely high.

play

1:15

Why Stephen A. expects the Lions will make another deep playoff run

Stephen A. Smith explains why he would take the Lions over the Rams in the NFC this season.

The vast majority of coordinators don’t do a good enough job to earn head coaching opportunities elsewhere, especially if they haven’t been a head coach before. The 2023 Eagles are an example of a team that lost both of its coordinators, promoted from within on one side of the ball (Brian Johnson), added someone it respected on the other (Vic Fangio disciple Sean Desai) and fired both before the start of the next season. I’m not saying that’s about to happen in Detroit, but it’s only realistic to believe the Lions will struggle to get the same caliber of game planning and adjustments that Johnson and Glenn delivered weekly from a pair of relatively inexperienced coordinators.

Also, Detroit’s schedule will be tough, but that’s nothing new for the Lions; they faced the league’s sixth-toughest slate a year ago, so moving up to its second-toughest schedule shouldn’t be overwhelming. Eleven of their 17 games come against teams that made it to the playoffs in 2024, and while that can be an outdated measure of which teams could be tough by the time we get through 2025, nine of their games are against teams FPI projects to be playoff teams in 2025, a list that doesn’t include the Vikings and Steelers.

FPI is arguably more pessimistic about the Lions than I expect most people would believe. Though the model gives them the fifth-highest playoff odds, it believes Detroit has a 35% chance of missing the playoffs, likely because of the stiff competition in the division. I’d be shocked if the Lions became this year’s 49ers and missed the postseason, but I’d expect Detroit to settle back in the 12-win range after last season’s two-loss campaign.



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NFL Power Rankings 2025: Who is under the most pressure?
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NFL Power Rankings 2025: Who is under the most pressure?

by admin August 19, 2025



Aug 18, 2025, 06:15 AM ET

The 2025 NFL season is just around the corner, which means it’s time to reevaluate the outlooks for all 32 teams. Check out how holdouts, breakouts and injuries have impacted our rankings since our postdraft list.

Preseason games conclude Saturday and cut-down day is Aug. 27, so this is the last offseason edition of Power Rankings.

In addition to our 1-32 ranking, NFL Nation reporters named one coach, player or executive on each team who is under the most pressure this season. Let’s start with the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Our power panel of more than 30 writers and editors evaluates how NFL teams stack up against one another, ranking them from 1 to 32.

Previous rankings: Post-Super Bowl, Post-free-agency, Postdraft

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Postdraft ranking: 2

Who’s under the most pressure: Offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo

The Eagles are well-established, coming off a Super Bowl. But one significant change came at offensive coordinator, where Patullo replaced Kellen Moore and will serve as a full-time playcaller for the first time in his career. Patullo has been coach Nick Sirianni’s right-hand man since 2021, and the offense isn’t expected to change much, making for a smooth transition. But with so much offensive talent, the bar is high, and Patullo will absorb some of the heat if the unit doesn’t operate as expected. — Tim McManus

Editor’s Picks

2 Related

Postdraft ranking: 1

Who’s under the most pressure: Wide receiver Rashee Rice

Although he is no longer expected to be suspended for the first four games of the season, Rice will still be under pressure to show he can once again be the No. 1 receiver. In training camp, Rice showed his explosiveness and ability to get yards after the catch. If he excels in September, the Chiefs could have another hot start. If Rice struggles, Kansas City will have to place much of the passing attack on the shoulders of 35-year-old Travis Kelce. — Nate Taylor

Postdraft ranking: 3

Who’s under the most pressure: Defensive end Joey Bosa

This is a big season for the pass rusher, who signed a one-year, $12.6 million deal with the Bills in the offseason after spending the first nine seasons of his career with the Chargers. Bosa, 30, is on a bit of a prove-it deal after missing a substantial amount of time over the past three seasons due to injuries. If he can stay healthy and put together a strong season, a significant contract could await. — Alaina Getzenberg

Postdraft ranking: 5

Who’s under the most pressure: Tight end Mark Andrews

He is entering the final season of his four-year, $56 million contract after dropping a critical two-point conversion in a 27-25 division round loss to Buffalo. Andrews led all TEs with 11 touchdowns last season, but he averaged 39.6 receiving yards per game in 2024, his worst total since his 2018 rookie season. — Jamison Hensley

Postdraft ranking: 4

Who’s under the most pressure: Quarterback Jared Goff

It appears every season is “make or break” for Goff if he doesn’t lead this team to the Super Bowl. He delivered an MVP-caliber 2024 season, but the Lions fell short in the NFC divisional round against Washington when Goff struggled and finished with four turnovers. Goff and the Lions will try to put last year’s playoff dud behind them. As the face of the team, the veteran QB again has high expectations to keep the momentum growing. — Eric Woodyard

Postdraft ranking: 6

Who’s under the most pressure: Cornerback Marshon Lattimore

Washington traded multiple picks for him at the deadline last season, and a hamstring injury limited Lattimore to two regular-season games (and three in the postseason). He has played in only 26 games the past three seasons combined. Lattimore has looked better this offseason but needs to be durable and productive to earn a contract extension. — John Keim

Postdraft ranking: 8

Who’s under the most pressure: Cornerback Keisean Nixon

He said after last season that he wanted to be a No. 1 CB. Now that Jaire Alexander is gone, Nixon might get that chance. Sure, the Packers signed Nate Hobbs in free agency, and defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley plays a high amount of zone coverage, but Nixon will be counted on to shut down opposing receivers. The question is, can he deliver? — Rob Demovsky

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1:38

Stephen A.: Jordan Love needs to step up come playoff time

Stephen A. Smith discusses Jordan Love’s ability as a quarterback and challenges him to show his full potential in playoff games.

Postdraft ranking: 7

Who’s under the most pressure: Cornerback Darious Williams

Williams has two seasons remaining on the three-year, $22.5 million contract he signed in 2024. The veteran cornerback, in his second stint in Los Angeles, is scheduled to count $8.6 million against the cap in 2026 but has no guaranteed money due after this season. The Rams have a young cornerback room and might opt to save money at the position after 2025. — Sarah Barshop

Postdraft ranking: 10

Who’s under the most pressure: Coach Zac Taylor

The Bengals missed the playoffs last season despite career years from QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase and DE Trey Hendrickson. Taylor has proved to be a coach capable of leading the Bengals to a Super Bowl. It’s time for Cincinnati to show that potential once again. — Ben Baby

Postdraft ranking: 9

Who’s under the most pressure: Vikings’ draft process

After signing general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O’Connell to contract extensions and assembling a roster of proven veterans, the team doesn’t have anyone prominent on the hot seat. But it might need to overhaul its draft process in 2026 if it doesn’t see more production from recent picks. WR Jordan Addison was the only starter last season who was drafted between 2022 and 2024. The Vikings need big contributions from QB J.J. McCarthy (2024), LB Dallas Turner (2024) and G Donovan Jackson (2025), at least, to validate their current process. — Kevin Seifert

Postdraft ranking: 14

Who’s under the most pressure: Coach Sean Payton

He has rock-solid job security, a deep-pocketed ownership group to support him and a proven personnel department to build a roster. But Payton has been the most vocal throughout training camp about his team’s Super Bowl worthiness. He believes the Broncos are good enough — if they do the work — to play for the Lombardi Trophy. It makes for good conversation now, but he could be at risk if the Broncos have any significant stumbles or injuries in 2025. — Jeff Legwold

Postdraft ranking: 13

Who’s under the most pressure: Linebacker Christian Harris

He is going into the final year of his rookie contract and flashes good potential — he showcased that when he caught a pick-six in the 2023 wild-card win over the Browns. But Harris hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and he also hasn’t practiced in training camp. If that continues, he might be on the outside when 2026 comes around. — DJ Bien-Aime

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Postdraft ranking: 12

Who’s under the most pressure: Cornerback Jamel Dean

He counts $15 million against the salary cap in 2025 and nearly $16 million in 2026. The Bucs drafted two cornerbacks in Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish in 2025. Dean has struggled to stay on the field due to injuries, missing 18 games in six seasons, including nine in the past two. — Jenna Laine

Postdraft ranking: 11

Who’s under the most pressure: Offensive coordinator Greg Roman

Roman is known for designing some of the most creative and dominant rushing offenses in league history, but his critics have questioned his playcalling and passing concepts. Roman’s offense didn’t look promising last season. The Chargers consistently sputtered in the second half, ultimately ending the 2024 season in the first round of the playoffs. With upgrades all over Los Angeles’ offense, all eyes will be on Roman’s group to produce in 2025. — Kris Rhim

Postdraft ranking: 15

Who’s under the most pressure: Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk

The trade rumors surrounding Aiyuk started more than two years ago and seem to never dissipate despite his signing a massive contract extension in 2024. Aiyuk is expected to return from his knee injury at some point this season, and his future in San Francisco will likely be determined by how it goes from there. The Niners would have to eat significant money with little return to part ways with him during or after this season, but if he can’t return to health and productivity, they might decide it’s time to move on and reallocate resources. — Nick Wagoner

Postdraft ranking: 17

Who’s under the most pressure: Coach Mike Tomlin

For the second season in a row, Tomlin was the driving force in bringing in a veteran quarterback to lead the franchise. This time, he courted Aaron Rodgers. Tomlin is putting his trust in Rodgers and the rest of his offense that they can expedite the gelling process and produce early in 2025. Realistically, Tomlin, under contract through the 2027 season, isn’t going anywhere no matter the outcome of this season. But the fan base will undoubtedly grow restless if another season passes without a playoff win. — Brooke Pryor

Postdraft ranking: 16

Who’s under the most pressure: Running back Kenneth Walker III

He is among six starters from the Seahawks’ 2022 draft class who are playing for a new contract in 2025, and like many of them, he still has something to prove. When healthy, he’s a tough runner. But Walker has missed 10 games in three seasons and chunks of this offseason with ankle and foot injuries. The ever-reliable Zach Charbonnet has impressed the Seahawks in his absence, giving the organization a pivot if Walker can’t stay healthy and produce in 2025. — Brady Henderson

Postdraft ranking: 19

Who’s under the most pressure: Coach Brian Schottenheimer

Now, this doesn’t mean the coach will be one-and-done at all. It’s just that there is a lot for a first-time coach to deal with for any job but especially with the Cowboys. Schottenheimer has the players buying into his message at the moment, but what happens if they lose a few games in a row? Will they continue to believe? They play in the same division as the two NFC finalists (Eagles and Commanders). They have a difficult schedule to close the season. All of it makes a fast start a must. — Todd Archer

play

2:18

Why Stephen A. dislikes Jerry Jones’ negotiating tactics

Stephen A. Smith and Damien Woody explain why Jerry Jones’ negotiating tactics aren’t effective in today’s NFL.

Postdraft ranking: 18

Who’s under the most pressure: Tight end Kyle Pitts Sr.

It’s a contract year for Pitts, who is auditioning for big money if he can return to a semblance of his rookie form four seasons ago: 1,026 yards on 68 catches and the first rookie Pro Bowl selection by a tight end since 2002. Pitts’ future with the Falcons and how much he would get as a free agent is dependent on how the 2021 No. 4 pick performs this season. — Marc Raimondi

Postdraft ranking: 20

Who’s under the most pressure: Coach Mike McDaniel

The fourth-year coach has made the playoffs in two of his first three seasons, but Miami still hasn’t won a playoff game in a quarter of a century. Owner Stephen Ross said last season that he was not satisfied with the status quo, and the locker room underwent a self-proclaimed cultural reset this offseason. But with a roster curated for its coach, the onus will fall on McDaniel to succeed. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Postdraft ranking: 21

Who’s under the most pressure: Quarterback Caleb Williams

It’s hard to believe that a second-year quarterback learning a new offense is under the most pressure, but Williams needs to perform well while making weekly strides in mastering coach Ben Johnson’s scheme. The 2024 No. 1 pick likely will experience growing pains, but for a franchise that might have the answer at quarterback after decades of searching, the pressure is on Williams to prove the team right. — Courtney Cronin

Postdraft ranking: 22

Who’s under the most pressure: General manager Monti Ossenfort

Entering his third season with the Cardinals, Ossenfort completed his three-year rebuild of the roster. Now, it’s time for that roster to win. He rebuilt the defensive front but hardly touched the offense, a move that could be risky. If the defense doesn’t live up to expectations or the offense has holes that he could’ve addressed, Ossenfort’s seat will start warming up. — Josh Weinfuss

Postdraft ranking: 23

Who’s under the most pressure: Left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson

The rookies are projected starters. According to ESPN Research and Elias, the Patriots will become the second team in the past 25 years to have two rookies starting on opening day on the left side of the offensive line (the 2016 Ravens are the other team). — Mike Reiss

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Postdraft ranking: 25

Who’s under the most pressure: Quarterback Trevor Lawrence

He is entering his fifth season with his third coach. Lawrence has yet to play consistently well over a full season, and injuries marred his past two years. New coach Liam Coen is changing his footwork, and the Jaguars upgraded the interior offensive line and added a playmaker in WR/CB Travis Hunter. Lawrence has the players to help him surge, and the hope is for Coen to do for Lawrence what he did for Baker Mayfield last season. — Mike DiRocco

Postdraft ranking: 26

Who’s under the most pressure: Defensive end Tyree Wilson

The 2023 first-round pick made strides last season with 4.5 sacks and one forced fumble, but it’s time for him to be an integral player in the trenches. With Christian Wilkins no longer on the team, Wilson’s versatility to play defensive line and edge rusher allows him to do so. — Ryan McFadden

Postdraft ranking: 24

Who’s under the most pressure: General manager Chris Ballard

He is entering his ninth season and has just two playoff appearances and one postseason victory. The Colts have never won the AFC South under his guidance. Much of Ballard’s tenure was upended by the sudden retirement of franchise quarterback Andrew Luck in 2019, but the botched QB moves after Luck’s departure have hurt the franchise. Is it playoffs or bust for Ballard? — Stephen Holder

Postdraft ranking: 27

Who’s under the most pressure: Quarterback Bryce Young

The top pick of the 2023 draft has to build off the final three games of last season and produce wins. The Panthers selected elite receiver Tetairoa McMillan in the first round to help Young take the next step, and they didn’t lose a starting offensive lineman in the offseason. Young has to show the organization didn’t make a mistake when it made that memorable trade with Chicago for the No. 1 pick in 2023. Young is 6-22, and more of that won’t cut it. — David Newton

Postdraft ranking: 30

Who’s under the most pressure: Quarterback Justin Fields

This is his third team in three seasons and probably his last real shot to be a long-term starting quarterback. The Jets are all-in on Fields, giving him $30 million guaranteed, but they can go in a different direction after a year. If the 2021 first-round pick fails, he’ll probably be in a Daniel Jones-like situation — having to compete for a job. — Rich Cimini

Postdraft ranking: 32

Who’s under the most pressure: Coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen

The Giants went 6-11 in 2023 and 3-14 last season. Drafting a promising young quarterback in Jaxson Dart is nice, but they must win games. It’s a results-oriented business, and owner John Mara wants to see progress and improved results this season. And that’s a big reason Russell Wilson is the starting quarterback to begin the season. — Jordan Raanan

Postdraft ranking: 29

Who’s under the most pressure: Coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry

Owner Jimmy Haslam has preached patience and has said he’ll give his coach-GM pairing time to turn things around after a 3-14 season. But Haslam also said the team needs marked improvement in 2025. For the Browns, that means not only fielding a much more competitive team but possibly finding a long-term answer at quarterback. — Daniel Oyefusi

play

0:44

Does injury derail Shedeur Sanders’ chance at QB1?

Domonique Foxworth weighs in on how an oblique injury could affect Shedeur Sanders’ position on the depth chart.

Postdraft ranking: 28

Who’s under the most pressure: Coach Kellen Moore

The first-year coach has a big task of turning things around and getting the Saints to the playoffs for the first time since 2020. That’s no small feat, especially considering he’ll be starting a young quarterback in either Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough this season. — Katherine Terrell

Postdraft ranking: 31

Who’s under the most pressure: Coach Brian Callahan

He is known for his work with Joe Burrow, who was the No.1 pick by the Bengals in 2020. The Titans are relying on Callahan to help resurrect their franchise and re-create his previous success with this year’s No.1 pick, Cameron Ward. The past two coaches for teams that selected quarterbacks first didn’t make it to their second season. Will Callahan? — Turron Davenport



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August 19, 2025 0 comments
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Arch Manning's 2025 expectations and NFL draft outlook
Esports

Arch Manning’s 2025 expectations and NFL draft outlook

by admin August 17, 2025



Aug 15, 2025, 06:15 AM ET

Arch Manning needs no introduction to the college football world. From the moment the sophomore quarterback committed to Texas in the class of 2023, the grandson of Archie Manning and nephew of Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning and two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning has been in the public eye.

After a redshirt season in 2023 and serving as a changeup to Quinn Ewers last season, Arch Manning will get his opportunity to be the face of the Longhorns — and potentially college football. He won’t get the chance to ease into the starting role, as top-ranked Texas will play at defending national champion and No. 3-ranked Ohio State in its season opener on Aug. 30.

As Manning readies for the 2025 season, we had our NFL draft and college football experts dive into all things Arch. Heather Dinich looked at how Manning could change Texas’ offense this season, and Adam Rittenberg talked to opposing coaches to get their initial impressions. Jordan Reid broke down Manning’s game from a scouting perspective, and Matt Miller talked to NFL evaluators about what stands out about the young QB and when he could enter the draft.

Let’s begin with Reid’s breakdown of what Manning has put on film to date.

Jump to a section:
Scouting report | Texas’ offense
Opposing coach perspective
NFL scouts talk Arch

What does Manning look like from a scouting perspective? What stands out most, and what does he need to work on?

Two starts and 95 career passing attempts provide too small a sample size to assess any signal-caller, but the early returns on Manning are positive. He has immense potential, but his starts came against 2-10 Mississippi State and 5-7 Louisiana Monroe. At 6-foot-4, 222 pounds, Manning has prototypical size and a well-built frame. He finished last season with 939 passing yards, nine touchdown passes and two interceptions over 10 games, and he has picture-perfect mechanics. He throws from a strong platform and seems to always play on balance from the pocket.

Manning also has a quick, over-the-top delivery that helps him get the ball out effectively. He has the necessary arm strength and confidence to drive the ball into tight windows, but one of the more impressive parts of his film was his success as a downfield thrower. He averaged 10.0 air yards per attempt last season, and 15 of his 61 completions went for 20-plus yards.

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Manning finished last season with seven completions on throws of 20-plus air yards, and three of his nine touchdowns came on downfield passes, which was an element mostly missing from Texas’ offense when Ewers was quarterback. Manning will help the offense generate more explosive plays downfield because of his touch, arm strength and comfort on deep-shot plays.

Unlike his uncles, Manning can also turn into a reliable running threat on designed QB runs or when plays break down. His frame and mobility allow him to string together positive plays outside the framework of concepts.

But Manning needs refinement on true multistep progressions from the pocket. He has a habit of sticking to his primary read too long, so he must learn when and how to move on to his next options quickly. Too many times last season, he stared down his first read, hoping the receiver would get open.

Manning can also improve on using his mobility to his advantage. His internal clock in the pocket was inconsistent. During several plays, he could have hurt defenses even more as a running threat instead of hanging in the pocket too long. — Reid

How will Texas utilize Manning, and how will things look different with him instead of Ewers?

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told ESPN that his offensive system won’t change, but it has evolved with the strengths of different quarterbacks — just as it did when Sarkisian was the offensive coordinator at Alabama and transitioned from Tua Tagovailoa to Mac Jones late in the 2019 season.

“The beauty of it for us right now is we have two years with Arch of working with him every day and have a really good understanding of the things that he’s good at, and so we can focus and tailor things around what he does well,” Sarkisian said.

“Probably the most natural thing is his athleticism to where he’s a threat. When he runs the ball, you have to account for him because there’s a speed component to the way he runs, and there’s a physical component to the way he runs. And so some of the things that we’re able to do in short yardage may be a little bit different than where we’ve been in the past.”

Breaking News from Heather Dinich

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Sarkisian said that the Longhorns have added the quarterback run in short-yardage, third-down situations and in the red zone — while also allowing Manning to recognize his strengths.

The Longhorns were middle of the pack in the red zone last season, as their 63.8% touchdown percentage ranked 55th in the FBS. Texas was 49th in third-down conversion percentage (42.1%). Manning could boost both categories. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry last season (25 carries for 108 yards and four touchdowns), a marked improvement over Ewers’ minus-1.4 yards per carry in 2024 (57 carries for minus-82 yards and two touchdowns).

“We may not change so much, but his ability to use his legs on third down in the red area to create plays when people are in man coverage and people are blitzing and there’s voids to go run, I think would be another component to that as well,” Sarkisian said. — Dinich

What do opposing college coaches think of Manning, both good and bad?

Most opposing coaches have a better sense of Manning off the field than on it, but they like what they’ve seen.

“He’s getting a lot of publicity, but he seems like a pretty level-headed kid,” a coach who will face Manning this fall said. “It doesn’t seem like he bought into the hype.”

An SEC coach added: “You’ve got a ton of respect for the kid, handling what is an insane situation.”

However, Manning’s limited game experience (11 career games, including 10 in 2024) creates doubt about whether he can reach the elevated expectations he’s facing as a first-year starter.

“He’s going to be a good player,” another SEC coach said. “The hype that it’s been, it’s impossible to reach.”

Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby, who faced Manning in his only conference start last season, thought the quarterback’s command and composure stood out. Manning completed 26 of 31 passes for 325 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, while adding a rushing touchdown, in a 35-13 Texas win.

“You’ve got to find ways to get him off platform,” Lebby told ESPN. “For a guy who hadn’t played a ton up to that point inside that game, man, he was really, really calm. He had great demeanor, and he had command of what Sark and his staff was trying to accomplish.”

play

2:19

Arch Manning dazzles with 5-TD performance vs. UTSA

Arch Manning replaces the injured Quinn Ewers and tallies five total touchdowns in Texas’ win vs. UTSA.

Several coaches who studied Manning noted his athleticism, which showed on a 67-yard run against UTSA and runs of 26 and 21 yards against Mississippi State and Georgia, respectively. Texas used Manning primarily as a running threat when Ewers returned from injury.

“Any time a quarterback can make all the throws and has enough ability to run the ball, they’re usually pretty f—ing good,” an SEC defensive coordinator said. “But I’m sure he’ll force some stuff and make some mistakes.”

Manning’s run threat certainly will be part of his repertoire, but how much? Coaches say a lot depends on Texas’ confidence in projected backup Trey Owens, who had only four pass attempts last season, because the more Manning runs, the more he opens himself up to injury.

“Sometimes, that comes into play, what your backup’s like,” a coach who faced Texas last season said. “I don’t imagine there will be a lot of designed runs. It will be Arch doing it on his own.” — Rittenberg

What do NFL scouts and evaluators think of Manning, and what are they looking to see from him this season?

Based on conversations I had with scouts, Manning is arguably the nation’s most discussed player. I spoke to 20 evaluators, and each was excited to talk about Manning. But not one evaluator polled is sure when they’ll scout the third-generation star as an active NFL draft prospect.

As a redshirt sophomore, Manning is draft eligible for the 2026 draft but also has three years of college eligibility remaining. No one I talked to thinks he’ll use all three years, but scouts aren’t ready to commit to him as a 2026 prospect, either. Grandfather Archie Manning, who has been more hands-on than Arch’s famous uncles, told Texas Monthly that he doesn’t expect Arch to enter the 2026 draft. But scouts are doing the legwork just in case.

“We’re evaluating him, while at the same time knowing he probably goes back to school [for the 2026 season],” an AFC scouting director said.

NFL scouts typically say 25 collegiate starts is the minimum any incoming quarterback should have before entering the draft. Manning has only two. A long playoff run this season could get him to 18 starts. But if the family agrees that more starts are better in the long run — Peyton started 45 games in college, and Eli had 41 — then it’s unlikely Arch will have a one-and-done starting season.

“People in the league want him to come out. Fans want him to come out. But I really feel like he’s in no rush, given his support system,” an NFC West scout added. “The family is going to care where he goes and who has the first pick when he does enter the draft.”

That sentiment was echoed by other scouts, and there’s precedent. The Manning family determined Eli’s landing spot in 2004, as Archie and Eli told the San Diego Chargers not to draft him coming out of Ole Miss. The Chargers picked Eli but traded him to the New York Giants, his preferred destination.

Look ahead to the 2026 NFL draft

• Early mock drafts: Miller | Reid
• Top five by position | Top QBs to know
• Race to No. 1 | 10 sleepers | Read more

“The situation is going to matter,” an NFL general manager said. “With NIL money and his family situation, there is no rush to get to the league. So, they’ll wait and see what the environment is before making a decision.”

One NFC scouting director predicted that the Manning decision would come close to the mid-January deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft. “They’ll want to see which team has the No. 1 pick and if they’ve fired their coach — which is pretty common — [and] who the replacement is before jumping into the draft,” the scouting director said.

Would Manning and the family consider an earlier entry into the 2026 draft if a team with the right appeal, be it an emotional tie to an organization or the right football fit, were in position to draft him? Potentially, but after conversations with scouts, this is an unknown.

Online speculation that the Manning family wants him to land with the New Orleans Saints, where his grandfather played, or maybe the New York Giants to follow uncle Eli, has been rampant. But one thing is for certain — Arch will go his own way. He didn’t go to Tennessee or Ole Miss and try to live in the family legacy. Overconnecting the dots between where his uncles played hasn’t been a smart bet.

If he enters next year’s draft, Manning wouldn’t be the guaranteed No. 1 pick. Cade Klubnik (Clemson), Drew Allar (Penn State), LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) are also receiving first-round attention.

Manning is the most hyped quarterback coming out of high school since Trevor Lawrence, but arguably under more pressure and with more attention.

“We’re still talking about a guy who has two starts, right?” an AFC South area scout said when asked to break down Manning’s game. “He’s big, he has a strong arm and I love the flexibility in his throwing motion. And he can move much better than his uncles ever did. But he’s very raw, and last year, the game was way too fast for him when he got in against Georgia and looked overwhelmed.”

Manning was a fish out of water too often when thrust into action last year. On film, there were a lot of “one-read-and-go” situations when he would take off as a runner if the fast-throwing option wasn’t there, which was referenced by several scouts. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian will develop his eyes and his pocket patience, but that’s the jump scouts need to see this season for him to live up to the generational quarterback label. — Miller



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August 17, 2025 0 comments
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2025 NFL positional group rankings: Best, worst team units
Esports

2025 NFL positional group rankings: Best, worst team units

by admin August 17, 2025


  • Mike ClayAug 15, 2025, 06:15 AM ET

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      Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.

When analyzing NFL rosters, it’s important to remember that it’s all relative. It’s easy to say a team is in “good shape” or “loaded” at a particular position, but each unit is only as good as it is relative to the league’s 31 other teams.

That might seem like common sense, but you’d be surprised what you can learn by sitting down and objectively grading and/or ranking each positional unit of all 32 teams. This is a project I’ve done each offseason, which has led to many interesting revelations, including the likely breakouts of teams such as the 2020 Buccaneers, 2022 Eagles and 2023 Dolphins.

Here are position-by-position unit rankings for all 32 teams this season covering the 10 key offensive and defensive groups. At the end is an overall ranking weighted based on positional importance (for example, it’s more crucial to be elite at quarterback than at running back). I also included brief outlooks on the best and shakiest units at each position as well as intriguing groups worth keeping an eye on. Note that these are 2025 rankings rather than long-term outlooks.

Let’s take a look, starting at quarterback.

Jump to:
QB | RB | WR | TE | OL
DT | Edge | LB | CB | S
Overall outlook

Quarterback

RankTeamRankTeam1BAL17DEN2BUF18ATL3KC19NE4CIN20CHI5PHI21SEA6WSH22JAX7LAC23CAR8SF24LV9TB25NYG10DET26PIT11DAL27MIN12LAR28TEN13ARI29NYJ14MIA30IND15GB31CLE16HOU32NO

This will be controversial to some, but Lamar Jackson led all quarterbacks in QBR, ANY/A (adjusted net yards per passing attempt) and expected points added. Jackson has been an All-Pro for the past two seasons and won the NFL MVP in 2019 and 2023. He fell just short of his second consecutive MVP last season despite career highs in passing yards (4,172) and passing touchdowns (41, tied for second in the league). The dual-threat quarterback has never finished a season lower than second among QBs in rushing yards, too. Former Cowboys QB Cooper Rush makes for a solid backup.

Derek Carr’s sudden retirement has left the Saints in rebuild mode under center. Second-round rookie Tyler Shough is the best bet to emerge as a viable starter, and perhaps he’ll be more pro-ready than most first-years considering he’s already 25. Recent Day 3 fliers Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who both struggled in relief of Carr last season, will also compete for the gig.

Other than perhaps the Steelers, no team with a new starting QB has as much on the line as the Vikings in 2025. With a revived Sam Darnold under center in 2024, Minnesota was one of the league’s best teams, posting a 14-3 regular-season record. The core of the team remains in place, which puts pressure on 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy to play at a high level or at least not mess things up.

Running back

RankTeamRankTeam1DET17LAC2ATL18LAR3PHI19NE4SF20WSH5BAL21CHI6IND22MIN7GB23TEN8MIA24JAX9NO25NYG10SEA26CLE11LV27CIN12TB28CAR13HOU29DEN14ARI30PIT15BUF31KC16NYJ32DAL

The running back position is strong across the NFL, but it’s hard to find a better duo than Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Since the two teamed up in 2023, Lions RBs have produced a league-high 5,960 yards and 57 touchdowns. That’s 718 more yards and eight more touchdowns than any other team’s RBs. Gibbs led the NFL with 20 TDs in 2024, and Montgomery produced 1,100-plus yards for the sixth season in a row despite missing three games.

Running back remained a low-priority position for Dallas this past offseason. Out is Rico Dowdle and in are Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders and Day 3 rookie Jaydon Blue. Williams has the highest ceiling, but the 25-year-old has struggled badly with efficiency since tearing his right ACL in 2022. Sanders was a nonfactor during two seasons in Carolina, though he showed some juice with 116 yards and two touchdowns in Week 18 last season. It’s very possible fifth-rounder Blue sees some serious run as a rookie.

The Chargers revamped their RB room this offseason, replacing J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards with Najee Harris and first-round pick Omarion Hampton. Hampton is a big, tough back with three-down ability who figures to immediately slide in as the lead runner. Harris has been reliable on early downs and an innings eater in recent years (he’s the only tailback to not miss a game over the past four seasons), though he doesn’t offer much as a receiver. His availability for the start of the season is still up in the air, as he hasn’t practiced since sustaining an eye injury in a fireworks mishap on July 4.

Wide receiver

RankTeamRankTeam1CIN17GB2PHI18ATL3TB19SEA4LAR20NO5MIN21NYG6MIA22BUF7CHI23CAR8DET24TEN9DAL25CLE10WSH26NE11KC27SF12LAC28NYJ13BAL29ARI14JAX30PIT15HOU31DEN16IND32LV

There are several good options here, but few teams come close to competing with the Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins pairing. Chase has been great since being drafted in 2021, and he cemented himself as elite in 2024 with league highs in routes, targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving TDs and end zone targets. He’s the first player in league history to reach both 1,700 receiving yards and 17 touchdown catches in a single season. Higgins battled injuries last season, but he still posted a 73-911-10 receiving line in 12 games. Andrei Iosivas and second-year Jermaine Burton provide depth.

Jakobi Meyers (one of 15 players with 800-plus receiving yards each of the past four seasons) is as underrated as they come, but he simply doesn’t have much proven help. Tre Tucker, the Raiders’ 2023 third-round pick, is the other top veteran returning this season, but he wasn’t efficient last season. Despite ranking fourth among receivers in routes run last season, Tucker finished outside the top 50 in catches, yards and TDs. Las Vegas does have some hope for improvement with rookies Jack Bech (second round), Dont’e Thornton Jr. (fourth) and Tommy Mellott (sixth).

A healthy Bucs WR room would’ve earned the nod for “best,” but there is uncertainty surrounding the availability of Chris Godwin, who led the NFL in receptions before a season-ending injury in 2024. Of course, even if he sit outs time, this has the look of a top-end group. Mike Evans (1,000-plus receiving yards in all 11 NFL seasons) is entering his age-32 campaign and seemingly hasn’t lost a step. Jalen McMillan (a 2024 third-round pick) scored eight TDs in his final five games of 2024, and the team selected Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka with its first-round pick.

Tight end

RankTeamRankTeam1BAL17HOU2PIT18IND3LV19CIN4KC20WSH5MIN21LAR6CHI22ATL7SF23TB8ARI24MIA9DET25JAX10CLE26SEA11NE27CAR12DEN28NYG13BUF29TEN14PHI30LAC15GB31NO16DAL32NYJ

A recent survey of league executives, coaches and scouts resulted in Mark Andrews (sixth) and Isaiah Likely (eighth) both ranking among the top 10 tight ends. After a career-high 11 touchdowns last season, Andrews leads all tight ends in scores since 2019 with 48. Likely’s usage has been limited by Andrews’ presence, but he’s one of 17 tight ends with 30-plus catches each of the past three seasons. Likely had surgery at the end of July for a small fracture in his foot, but Baltimore hasn’t ruled him out playing in Week 1.

Second-round rookie Mason Taylor could make this designation look foolish, but there very well could be a lengthier learning curve here for the 21-year-old. Jason Taylor’s son will have a lot of pressure to deliver, as the Jets’ fallback options (Jeremy Ruckert, Stone Smartt and Zack Kuntz) haven’t made much of an impact in the pros.

Welcome back, Darren Waller. After ending his one-year retirement in July, Waller was traded to Miami as the team’s replacement for Jonnu Smith. Once one of the league’s top tight ends, Waller is obviously a bit of a lottery ticket since he’s 32 and struggled with durability when we last saw him (he hasn’t played more than 12 games in a season since 2020). Of course, with Julian Hill and Pharaoh Brown as his top competition, Waller has an easy path to snaps and targets in an offense that sees a ton of two-high looks.

Offensive line

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Another season, another elite Eagles offensive line. It starts with arguably the league’s top tackle duo of Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson. Mailata ranked among the top tackles in Pro Football Focus grade, pass block win rate and run block win rate in both 2023 and 2024. Johnson is now 35 but hasn’t lost a step, ranking top 10 among tackles in pass and run block win rate last season. Cam Jurgens was solid as Jason Kelce’s replacement at center last season. Landon Dickerson is one of the league’s best guards, though he sustained a meniscus injury to his right knee in a preseason practice and is considered week to week. The only other concern is at right guard, as Matt Pryor and Tyler Steen are among those competing to replace Mekhi Becton.

Offensive line remains a massive problem area for the Jaguars and perhaps the worst situation in the NFL. Walker Little and Anton Harrison both posted poor pass block win rate marks in the past two seasons and are expected to be back as the team’s starting tackles. The interior will have a bit of a new look, as incumbent left guard Ezra Cleveland will be joined by newcomers in center Robert Hainsey and right guard Patrick Mekari. Perhaps third-round rookie Wyatt Milum will make an impact, but it’s hard to imagine this group making much of a leap.

Best in this category one year ago, the Lions will need to overcome some adversity this offseason. Detroit said goodbye to standout center Frank Ragnow (retirement) and right guard Kevin Zeitler (free agency) during the offseason. Graham Glasgow (last season’s starting left guard) is now a contender to start at center, leaving the likes of 2024 sixth-rounder Christian Mahogany, second-round rookie Tate Ratledge, Trystan Colon and Kayode Awosika as the top contenders to start at the two guard spots.

Interior defensive line

RankTeamRankTeam1SEA17NYJ2ARI18CHI3IND19CIN4TEN20TB5MIN21GB6NYG22DAL7DEN23DET8PIT24CLE9LAR25JAX10NE26WSH11BAL27ATL12KC28HOU13PHI29NO14CAR30LV15BUF31LAC16MIA32SF

A contender for this honor one year ago, the Seahawks remain stacked up front with Leonard Williams leading the way. Williams is still playing at a superstar level at 31, as he led all interior linemen with 11 sacks and ranked fourth with 35 pass rush wins last season. Jarran Reed (4.5 sacks in 2024) and Johnathan Hankins are also back. And 2024 first-round pick Byron Murphy II is a candidate for a second-year leap after a solid rookie showing.

Maliek Collins and Javon Hargrave signed elsewhere this offseason, and the 49ers’ only impact additions were draft picks Alfred Collins (second round) and CJ West (fourth). Jordan Elliott (a rotational player) tops the depth chart, and Kevin Givens, Evan Anderson and Kalia Davis all played less than 30% of the team’s defensive snaps last season. The 49ers figure to add more help and/or move Yetur Gross-Matos and Sam Okuayinonu inside more often.

A clear weakness for Arizona last season has suddenly become its biggest strength. After finishing 2024 ranked 28th and 20th in pass rush win rate (33.3%) and run stop win rate (29.8%), respectively, Arizona now has serious talent and potential up front. Standout veterans Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell were signed to anchor the interior, with recent first-round picks Darius Robinson (2024) and Walter Nolen III (2025) adding upside. Incumbents Justin Jones, L.J. Collier, Dante Stills and Bilal Nichols will compete for depth roles.

Edge rusher

RankTeamRankTeam1PIT17SEA2NYG18NE3MIN19IND4HOU20ARI5LV21NYJ6JAX22BAL7DET23DEN8LAR24CHI9CIN25KC10MIA26TB11SF27GB12DAL28ATL13CLE29CAR14LAC30TEN15NO31PHI16BUF32WSH

T.J. Watt has been an All-Pro in each of his past five healthy seasons and has an NFL-high 108 sacks since entering the league in 2017 (only he and Myles Garrett have more than 83). Running mate Alex Highsmith sat out six games last season but remained a full-time player when healthy; his 33.5 sacks over the past four seasons rank 16th in the league. Nick Herbig (5.5 sacks in 13 games) also was terrific in an expanded role.

Dante Fowler Jr., who led the Commanders in sacks (10.5) and pass rush wins (37) last season, signed with Dallas in free agency. Little was done to replace him, with journeymen Deatrich Wise Jr., 36-year-old Von Miller and Jacob Martin brought in to join Dorance Armstrong and Clelin Ferrell. Versatile Frankie Luvu (the only player on the roster who had more than six sacks last season) will once again be key to Washington’s pass rush.

The Giants have a strong case for the top spot in this category. Brian Burns sits seventh in the NFL with 54.5 sacks since entering the league in 2019, while Kayvon Thibodeaux ranks 21st with 17 over the past two seasons. And as if that’s not enough, New York used the No. 3 pick this year on Abdul Carter. It’s extremely rare for a team to have three first-round picks at the same position, but New York will certainly get creative in finding ways to keep all three busy this season.

Off-ball linebacker

RankTeamRankTeam1WSH17GB2PHI18MIN3JAX19ATL4DEN20TB5DET21HOU6NYJ22CIN7NO23LV8MIA24CLE9SF25SEA10KC26IND11CHI27LAC12PIT28DAL13BAL29ARI14BUF30TEN15NE31CAR16NYG32LAR

With Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu back, the Commanders pace this category for the second year in a row. Wagner is entering his age-35 season, but he ranked in the top 10 among off-ball LBs in pass rush wins, tackles for loss and QB hits last season. Luvu is the only NFL player with 250-plus tackles and 20-plus sacks over the past three seasons (335 and 21, respectively). The duo combined to play 98.2% of Washington’s defensive snaps in 2024.

Rarely a priority for Sean McVay’s Rams, this position remains an area of concern, especially following Christian Rozeboom’s departure. Career situational player Troy Reeder was vaulted into an every-down role early in 2024 before a hamstring injury ended his season in Week 7. He’s back and will compete with veteran newcomer Nate Landman, 2024 UDFA Omar Speights and perhaps fifth-round rookie Chris Paul Jr. for substantial work this season.

GM Howie Roseman and the Super Bowl champion Eagles hit an absolute home run when they signed Zack Baun to a one-year flier last offseason. After totaling 88 tackles in four seasons of being misused in New Orleans, Baun registered 150 tackles (sixth most in the NFL) in 2024 and was awarded a three-year, $51 million extension. Baun is the main man in this unit, but his running mate (at least in the short term) is to be determined. Both Nakobe Dean (recovering from a knee injury) and 2025 first-round pick Jihaad Campbell (recovering from shoulder surgery) could be limited or sit out time to open the season. Recent fifth-round picks Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Smael Mondon Jr. add depth.

Cornerback

RankTeamRankTeam1BAL17NYG2HOU18TEN3NYJ19DAL4PHI20CLE5PIT21JAX6NE22ATL7BUF23SF8CHI24MIN9KC25LAR10SEA26LAC11IND27GB12DET28ARI13DEN29CIN14TB30NO15WSH31LV16CAR32MIA

Even after losing Brandon Stephens to the Jets during free agency, the Ravens remained in solid shape at cornerback thanks to one of the league’s best duos in Marlon Humphrey and 2024 first-round pick Nate Wiggins. Baltimore then went from “solid” to “great” when it signed Jaire Alexander in June. Alexander struggled with injuries during his time in Green Bay, but he has remained an elite player when healthy. With Wiggins and Alexander outside, Humphrey in the slot and veteran Chidobe Awuzie offering quality depth, the Ravens are loaded at corner.

Kendall Fuller and Jalen Ramsey — Miami’s top perimeter corners in 2024 — both departed this offseason, and the team made minimal efforts to replace them. Artie Burns was initially the lone notable veteran signing, while fifth-rounder Jason Marshall Jr. was the only draft investment. But now, Burns and Kader Kohou are done for the season because of torn ACL injuries. That leaves the likes of 31-year-old Mike Hilton, Jack Jones, Storm Duck and Cam Smith as the team’s top options at corner.

The Jaguars are set to return all three of their top corners from 2024 — Tyson Campbell, Montaric Brown and slot Jarrian Jones — but the trio will have significantly more competition for work in 2025. Of course, the big wild card is No. 2 pick Travis Hunter, who is expected to focus primarily on wide receiver. The Jaguars also added standout slot CB Jourdan Lewis and invested a third-round pick in Caleb Ransaw. Their pass defense should be much better than the group that allowed an AFC-worst 61.2 QBR last season.

Safety

RankTeamRankTeam1DET17TB2GB18DAL3ARI19IND4HOU20NYJ5BAL21PHI6DEN22MIA7LAC23JAX8CHI24TEN9NE25CIN10MIN26LV11ATL27CAR12NO28SF13LAR29CLE14SEA30BUF15PIT31KC16NYG32WSH

Detroit has formed the league’s top safety duo by hitting on a pair of recent Day 2 draft picks. Kerby Joseph (2022 third-rounder) has been an every-down player since entering the league, and he took his game to the next level last season. Brian Branch (2023 second-rounder) wasn’t far behind, which was an impressive feat as he transitioned from a hybrid slot/safety role as a rookie to more of a prominent safety role in 2024.

Jeremy Chinn (who led the Washington secondary in snaps last season) is gone and is set to be replaced by 30-year-old Will Harris. The ex-Lion and Saint will work opposite 2024 starter Quan Martin, with Percy Butler returning as competition. None of these players have posted a quality Pro Football Focus grade in recent seasons, and Washington did not invest in the position during April’s draft.

Xavier McKinney was a home run acquisition last offseason, as the ex-Giant produced eight interceptions (second most in the NFL) and earned his first All-Pro bid. And 2024 draft selections Javon Bullard (second round) and Evan Williams (fourth) each played substantial roles as rookies and should be featured heavily in a defense that leans on three-safety looks.

Overall

RankTeamRankTeam1BLT17DAL2PHI18PIT3BUF19ARZ4KC20SF5DET21SEA6MIN22IND7CIN23NYG8CHI24MIA9TB25ATL10DEN26TEN11LAC27NYJ12LAR28JAX13WAS29CAR14HST30LV15GB31CLV16NE32NO

It’s no secret the Ravens have yet to earn a Super Bowl appearance in the Lamar Jackson era, but that very well could change this season. Baltimore has perhaps its best roster on paper since it won Super Bowl XLVII. Jackson is obviously the big difference-maker, but he has a ton of help at the skill positions (including Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews and newcomer DeAndre Hopkins) and on the offensive line (led by Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum).

The Ravens’ defense, which has ranked in the top five leaguewide in sacks each of the past three seasons, returns 10 of its top 11 snap-getters from 2024 (including stars Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey, Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy and Nnamdi Madubuike). They added potential impact players in star corner Jaire Alexander, first-round pick Malaki Starks and second-round pick Mike Green.

Derek Carr’s retirement cemented this one, as New Orleans’ quarterback situation probably will be quite poor (the hit rate of non-first-round QBs, especially as rookies, is very low). Of course, it’s not just about the quarterback. Alvin Kamara is now 30 years old; Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have some uncertainty after both sat out most of last season because of injuries; and we might not even see Taysom Hill, who is rehabbing a torn ACL at age 35. The Erik McCoy-led offensive line could be serviceable, but it depends on the development and progression of four recent first-round picks, including rookie left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr.

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The defense has a few bright spots (Carl Granderson, Chase Young, Justin Reid, Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan), but the latter two are both 36. There are also massive concerns up front and at corner. Unless Tyler Shough proves to be a second-round gem, New Orleans might be selecting its franchise QB with the first pick of the 2026 draft.

It’s easy to forget considering how the Lions’ season ended (45-31 playoff loss to the Commanders), but they were dominant on both sides of the ball in the regular season. Through Week 12, their defense ranked first in EPA. Then the injuries started to pile up, and they fell to 29th for the rest of the season.

A return to health on defense will be the key to getting that unit back into the “elite” discussion. Superstar Aidan Hutchinson’s comeback is obviously massive, and he leads a good front seven that includes DJ Reader, first-round pick Tyleik Williams, Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone and Alim McNeill (still rehabbing from a torn ACL). D.J. Reed was an impact signing as Terrion Arnold’s running mate at corner, and those two join the terrific Brian Branch/Kerby Joseph duo in the secondary.

An elite Lions offense that ranked in the top five in EPA for the past three seasons remains intact, with a solid QB (Jared Goff), good pass catchers (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta), the aforementioned elite RB duo and a very good offensive line (including tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell to help offset the interior uncertainty). The Eagles have something to say about it, but the Lions certainly have a case as the NFC’s best team on paper.



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NFL All Quarter Century team: Best 53-man roster, coaches
Esports

NFL All Quarter Century team: Best 53-man roster, coaches

by admin June 19, 2025


  • Aaron Schatz

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    Aaron Schatz

    ESPN Writer

      Aaron Schatz is an NFL analyst for ESPN.com. He has more than 20 years of experience working in NFL analytics and is the creator of the DVOA and DYAR metric. He also serves as the Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Network.
  • Seth Walder

    Close

    Seth Walder

    ESPN Analytics

      Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.

Jun 18, 2025, 06:45 AM ET

At this point of the NFL offseason, front offices are starting to think about their final 53-man rosters for the upcoming season. Tough decisions are on deck for all 32 teams. But let’s expand the scope a little: How would a full All-NFL roster for the past 25 years look? To celebrate the quarter-century mark, we picked out the best NFL players since 2000 and filled out a complete lineup.

We couldn’t think of two people better able to pull off this job than our stat-loving NFL analysts Aaron Schatz and Seth Walder. They served as de facto general managers for this All Quarter Century team, building the 53-man roster through a few simple rules and methods:

  • Players are still eligible if they began their career in the 1990s, but only production beginning in the 2000 season was considered.

  • These decisions were made mostly on statistical output, focusing on peak seasons while still rewarding longevity. We relied heavily on FTN’s DYAR metric (defense-adjusted yards above replacement), which calculates a player’s value over the course of the season compared to a replacement-level baseline. Other advanced statistics were also taken into account.

  • This team includes 25 offensive players, 23 defensive players and five special teams players. For another wrinkle, we filled out a full “practice squad” with the players who just missed the cut and listed them in their respective position groups. We followed current NFL practice squad rules, which includes 17 players if one was brought in from the International Player Pathway Program. Finally, we also needed an elite coaching staff to get the most out of this quarter-century team, so we picked a head coach and three coordinators.

Let’s jump into the All Quarter Century lineup picks, starting with the most important position in sports. Players are listed by position group and in order of how they’d land on the depth chart.

Jump to a position:
QB | RB | FB | WR
TE | OL | DL | LB
DB | ST | Coaches

Quarterbacks (3)

Teams: Patriots (2000-19), Buccaneers (2020-22)
Résumé since 2000: 89,214 passing yards, 649 passing TDs, seven-time Super Bowl champion, three-time MVP, six-time All-Pro

Editor’s Picks

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The best evidence of Brady’s greatness is his all-time high in Super Bowl rings, of course, but he exemplified both team and individual success throughout his career. His 2007 season is the best in NFL history using both FTN’s DYAR metric and ESPN’s Total QBR. He was almost as good in 2010 despite playing in a completely different offense structured around two rookie tight ends.

For a long time, there was a great debate about who was better: Brady or Peyton Manning. But while Manning called it a career after his age-39 season, Brady won two Super Bowls in his 40s. Nobody has ever played so well for so long. — Schatz

Teams: Colts (1998-2011), Broncos (2012-15)
Résumé since 2000: 64,066 passing yards, 487 passing TDs, two-time Super Bowl champion, five-time MVP, nine-time All-Pro

Manning ranks second behind Brady in DYAR since 2000. He has three of the top five seasons for total passing value — 2013, 2004 and 2006. His 2004 season has the highest passing DVOA (value per play) of any season since 1978. And while QBR doesn’t go back as far, Manning’s 2006 season is the second-highest QBR behind Brady’s 2007 season. Close your eyes, and you can still picture Manning audibling behind the line of scrimmage, moving his players around before the snap to take advantage of his incredible ability to read defenses. — Schatz

Teams: Chiefs (2017-present)
Résumé since 2000: 32,352 passing yards, 245 passing TDs, three-time Super Bowl champion, two-time MVP, three-time All-Pro

There are arguments for Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees here, but we believe Mahomes deserves a spot on this team despite his relative “lack” of MVPs or first-team All-Pro selections (two) through eight seasons.

His QBR for his career (postseason included) is 75.0, which trails Manning (75.6) but is ahead of Brady (71.0), Brees (70.9) and Rodgers (66.9). And from the unbelievable throws to the mistake avoidance to the postseason heroics, we’re choosing peak Mahomes over peak Rodgers or Brees. — Walder

Practice squad: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees

play

1:20

Why Patrick Mahomes likes comparisons with ‘GOAT’ Tom Brady

Patrick Mahomes tells “The Pat McAfee Show” crew why he’s more than happy being compared to Tom Brady.

Running backs (3)

Teams: Ravens (1997-2000), Chiefs (2001-07)
Résumé since 2000: 9,256 all-purpose yards, 85 all-purpose TDs, one-time Super Bowl champion, one-time OPOY, three-time All-Pro

Yes, Holmes is our RB1 over anyone else. Think back to the turn of the century, when Holmes emerged from the Baltimore bench to drive the powerful offense of the Dick Vermeil Chiefs, using a dynamic combination of rushing and receiving skills.

Other running backs might have had longer peaks, but none of them can match the three-year period that Holmes had from 2001 to 2003. In the advanced DYAR metrics for total value, these seasons rank 15th, second and third among all running back seasons since 1978, respectively. — Schatz

Teams: Panthers (2017-22), 49ers (2022-present)
Résumé since 2000: 10,853 all-purpose yards, 81 all-purpose TDs, one-time OPOY, four-time All-Pro

As the best receiving back of the past 25 years, McCaffrey needs to be included on this roster. He averages 47 receiving yards per game, which is more than anyone else with at least 500 carries during that span.

But he’s not only a receiving back. What makes McCaffrey special is that he has maintained 4.7 yards per carry over his career, 14th-best among running backs this quarter century. — Walder

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Teams: Titans (2016-23), Ravens (2024-present)
Résumé since 2000: 13,074 all-purpose yards, 111 all-purpose TDs, one-time OPOY, four-time All-Pro

King Henry gives this team a power rusher in the ground game. But style aside, Henry’s production really earns him his spot on this list. His 4.9 yards per carry puts him well ahead of Adrian Peterson (4.6) and LaDainian Tomlinson (4.3), whom we also considered in this spot. His 2.4 yards after contact per carry make him No. 1 among all running backs with at least 500 rushes since 2000, and he has a very low 0.6% fumble rate. — Walder

Practice squad: LaDainian Tomlinson

Fullbacks (1)

Teams: Ravens (2013-16), 49ers (2017-present)
Résumé since 2000: 2,901 all-purpose yards, 24 all-purpose TDs, two-time All-Pro

Juszczyk’s nine Pro Bowl selections are four more than the Ravens’ Patrick Ricard and five more than former Charger Lorenzo Neal. He’s a unique playmaker as a fullback in the passing game, with the ability to move around and run all kinds of different routes. — Schatz

Wide receivers (6)

Teams: Vikings (1998-2004, 2010), Raiders (2005-06), Patriots (2007-10), Titans (2010), 49ers (2012)
Résumé since 2000: 12,566 receiving yards, 128 receiving TDs, three-time All-Pro

The greatest receiver of the 21st century based on the eye test, Moss also dominated in advanced metrics. He set the NFL record with 23 receiving touchdowns in 2007, a season that ranks third all-time in DYAR.

Moss ranked No. 1 in receiving DYAR three times: 2000, 2003 and 2007. In each of those seasons, he had at least 1,400 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. He is also the leader in total receiving value by DYAR whether you add together a player’s top five seasons or top 10 seasons since 2000. Plus, he’s a legend of the podium interview. — Schatz

Teams: Lions (2007-15)
Résumé since 2000: 11,619 receiving yards, 83 receiving TDs, four-time All-Pro

Johnson leaped over defenders en route to two 1,600-plus-yard seasons and the all-time single-season receiving yards record (1,964) in 2012. He ranks fourth since 2000 in yards per game behind only three current players with far fewer games played (Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua and Ja’Marr Chase).

What’s most amazing about Johnson is what he did without Matthew Stafford as his QB. During Detroit’s infamous 0-16 season in 2008, Johnson managed 1,331 yards with Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper and Jon Kitna at quarterback. — Walder

play

6:50

E:60 – Factors that led to Calvin Johnson’s retirement

Three-time first-team All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson speaks extensively for the first time about his retirement from the game, injuries and concussions in the NFL, and his years of losing in Detroit.

Teams: Falcons (2011-20), Titans (2021), Buccaneers (2022), Eagles (2023)
Résumé since 2000: 13,703 receiving yards, 66 receiving TDs, five-time All-Pro

If we look at every player’s three best seasons by receiving yards this quarter century, no wideout’s top three years matched Jones’ total of 5,141 — four yards ahead of Johnson. If we do the same exercise for each player’s five best seasons, Jones again sits at the top. Best seven? Still Jones.

Also, with all due respect to Matt Ryan, Jones did not have a Hall of Fame quarterback throwing to him the way other receivers on this list did. Though he never won a ring, Jones’ miraculous sideline grab in Super Bowl LI helped the Falcons get awfully close to one. — Walder

Teams: 49ers (1996-2003), Eagles (2004-05), Cowboys (2006-08), Bills (2009), Bengals (2010)
Résumé since 2000: 12,627 receiving yards, 123 receiving TDs, five-time All-Pro

In the 11 seasons Owens played in this quarter century, he recorded three second-place finishes in DYAR and one infamous driveway news conference. He led the league in receiving touchdowns three times, and his 80.3 receiving yards per game ranks sixth among WRs with at least 50 games played since 2000.

Owens would play through any injury for this team, as evidenced by his miraculous 122-yard performance in Super Bowl XXXIX after breaking his leg seven weeks earlier. — Walder

Teams: Colts (1996-2008)
Résumé since 2000: 10,439 receiving yards, 95 receiving TDs, one-time Super Bowl champion, seven-time All-Pro

Harrison didn’t miss a first- or second-team All-Pro selection from 1999 to 2006. Although he led the NFL only one time each in receiving yards (2002) and receiving touchdowns (2005), he led the NFL in receiving DYAR three times: 2001, 2002 and 2006.

Harrison had 205 targets in 2002, the third-highest total in NFL history, and he caught 70% of those passes. We chose Harrison for this spot over other options because he had a stronger peak. — Schatz

Teams: Vikings (2020-present)
Résumé since 2000: 7,432 receiving yards, 40 receiving TDs, one-time OPOY, four-time All-Pro

Jefferson has played only five NFL seasons, but what amazing seasons they have been. When he won the Offensive Player of the Year award in 2022, he was No. 1 in receptions, yards and DYAR. He ranked in the top three for DYAR in three of his other seasons (2020, 2021 and 2024), with at least 1,400 receiving yards in each of them. The only exception is 2023, when he played only 10 games because of injury but still managed to top 1,000 yards. — Schatz

Practice squad: Antonio Brown, Andre Johnson

Tight ends (3)

Teams: Patriots (2010-18), Buccaneers (2020-21)
Résumé since 2000: 9,286 receiving yards, 92 receiving TDs, four-time Super Bowl champion, four-time All-Pro

Gronk’s 2011 season is the all-time greatest for a tight end in both standard stats (18 touchdowns) and advanced stats (461 DYAR). He ranked first in DYAR among tight ends three times and second another three times. Oh, and he was also a devastating blocker — he could basically be used as another offensive tackle during run plays. — Schatz

Ed Reed, Myles Garrett, Tom Brady, Travis Kelce and Devin Hester all make our All Quarter Century NFL roster. ESPN

Teams: Chiefs (2013-current)
Résumé since 2000: 12,151 receiving yards, 77 receiving TDs, three-time Super Bowl champion, seven-time All-Pro

Kelce is simply the best pure receiving tight end in this quarter century. If we count the postseason, Kelce recorded more receiving yards (14,229) than any other tight end in this span. And on a per-game basis, the only player who comes close to Kelce (71.1) is 2024 rookie Brock Bowers (70.2), who could be on the mid-century team if he keeps it up. Kelce ranked No. 1 among tight ends in DYAR three times (2016, 2020 and 2022). — Walder

Teams: Chiefs (1997-2008), Falcons (2009-13)
Résumé since 2000: 13,289 receiving yards, 96 receiving TDs, nine-time All-Pro

Gonzalez was great year after year after year in a career that seemingly went on forever. He led all tight ends in receiving DYAR seven different times and ranked in the top five in 12 out of the 14 seasons we’re considering for this exercise. His career total in receptions (1,325) is still an all-time high for tight ends and ranks third highest of any player all time. — Schatz

Practice squad: Antonio Gates

Left tackles (2)

Teams: Browns (2007-17)
Résumé since 2000: 167 starts, eight-time All-Pro

In his 11 pro seasons with the mostly woebegone Browns, Thomas failed to reach the Pro Bowl only one time. That was in 2017, his final year in the league. His six first-team All-Pro selections since 2000 are two more than any tackle in this span (regardless of side), making him a slam dunk choice for this team. — Walder

play

1:09

Thomas on retirement: ‘I went through a lot of boxes of Kleenex’

Joe Thomas says he was surprised to hear from younger NFL linemen and LeBron James congratulating him on his career and retirement.

Teams: Washington (2010-19), 49ers (2020-present)
Résumé since 2000: 187 starts, four-time All-Pro

Williams was chosen for the Pro Bowl in 11 seasons from 2012 to 2023, the most by any offensive tackle since 2000. He was very good in his 20s for Washington before holding out the entire 2019 season over disagreements with the team’s medical staff. He is even better in his 30s for San Francisco, leading all tackles in pass block win rate in 2023. — Schatz

Practice squad: Walter Jones, Jordan Mailata (International Player Pathway)

Left guards (2)

Teams: Steelers (1998-2007), Jets (2008-09), Cardinals (2010)
Résumé since 2000: 175 starts, one-time Super Bowl champion, eight-time All-Pro

A stalwart at left guard for the Steelers before late-career spells with the Jets and Cardinals, Faneca missed only one game from 2000 on — and that was due to rest in a meaningless Week 17 contest in 2001. His six first-team All-Pro selections are more than any other left guard this quarter century. — Walder

Teams: Seahawks (2001-05), Vikings (2006-11), Titans (2012)
Résumé since 2000: 169 starts, seven-time All-Pro

Hutchinson made the Pro Bowl every year from 2003 through 2009 and helped lead the 2005 Seahawks to Super Bowl XL, along with Walter Jones. There were a number of relatively equal, strong left guards to choose from, but we went with Hutchinson over Joel Bitonio, Logan Mankins and Quenton Nelson. His impact on the NFL also stretches past the field, as he was part of a deal that led to a rule change about contracts after the “poison pill” that kept Seattle from matching the contract he signed with Minnesota in 2006. — Schatz

Centers (1)

Teams: Eagles (2011-23)
Résumé since 2000: 193 starts, one-time Super Bowl champion, six-time All-Pro

Picking our lone center was a fairly straightforward call. While Maurkice Pouncey made the Pro Bowl nine times (versus Kelce’s seven), Kelce’s six first-team All-Pro selections are by far the most of any center — no other player has had more than two since 2000. Kelce helped lead the Eagles to two Super Bowl appearances and revolutionized third- and fourth-and-1s leaguewide with his critical role in the (still permitted!) tush push play. — Walder

Right guards (2)

Teams: Cowboys (2014-24)
Résumé since 2000: 162 starts, nine-time All-Pro

Martin’s number of first-team All-Pro selections (seven) is the highest total for any guard since 2000. Former Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo once said Martin didn’t have a weakness and had everything required of an offensive lineman at an elite level: footwork, base, punch, athleticism, strength and mind. — Schatz

Teams: Ravens (2007-19)
Résumé since 2000: 166 starts, one-time Super Bowl champion, seven-time All-Pro

Yanda’s distinguished career with the Ravens included two first-team All-Pro selections. While we don’t have advanced blocking metrics for the majority of his career, his numbers were astounding near the tail end. He finished first among guards in run block win rate in both 2018 and 2019 and first in pass block win rate in 2019. — Walder

Practice squad: Jahri Evans

Right tackles (2)

Teams: Eagles (2013-current)
Résumé since 2000: 158 starts, two-time Super Bowl champion, five-time All-Pro

Johnson leads all right tackles in Pro Bowl selections since 2000 with six; no other player who primarily played right tackle in that span has more than four. He has perhaps been at his best over the past couple of seasons. In 2023, he led all tackles in run block win rate and was ninth in pass block win rate. Last season, Johnson was fifth among tackles in both run block win rate and pass block win rate. — Schatz

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Teams: Bengals (1996-2007), Ravens (2008)
Résumé since 2000: 138 starts, four-time All-Pro

Even though our time span cuts off the first four seasons of Anderson’s career, what he did in the nine years from 2000 on earns him a spot on this list. He played in 16 regular-season games every year from 2000 to 2006 with the Bengals.

Unlike at left tackle where there were quite a few feasible candidates, right tackle was quite clear-cut, with Johnson and Anderson being the two best options. If sixth-year Bucs tackle Tristan Wirfs had more seasons under his belt, he could have been a good candidate. — Walder

Edge rushers (4)

Teams: Cowboys (2005-13), Broncos (2014-16)
Résumé since 2000: 138.5 sacks, 35 forced fumbles, one-time Super Bowl Champion, seven-time All-Pro

There are so many great edge rushers to choose from, but they generally come in two categories: great career totals or great peaks with a high ratio of sacks to games played. Ware had the best balance between the two. He had the third-most sacks out of all players since 2000, while his 0.78 sacks per game rank fourth among edge rushers. — Schatz

Teams: Chiefs (2004-07), Vikings (2008-13), Bears (2014-15), Panthers (2015)
Résumé since 2000: 136 sacks, 32 forced fumbles, four-time All-Pro

Allen’s peak was incredibly strong, hitting 22.0 sacks (just shy of the single-season record) in 2011. But he was not a one-hit wonder: Allen hit double-digit sacks eight times and tallied the fourth-most sacks in our time span. He also ranks fourth among edge players (if we include J.J. Watt) in total plus-EPA since 2001 — a measure where defenders who are on the field for positive defensive plays are credited with the resulting EPA. — Walder

Teams: Browns (2017-present)
Résumé since 2000: 102.5 sacks, 20 forced fumbles, one-time DPOY, six-time All-Pro

Since Garrett entered the league in 2017, no edge player has accumulated more pass rush wins than his 522 — ahead of T.J. Watt’s 467. And Garrett did that while maintaining the third-highest double-team rate at edge (27%) of all qualifying edge rushers. He has made the most of his eight seasons in the league, with a first-team All-Pro nod in half of those seasons, making him plenty worthy of selection. — Walder

Teams: Panthers (2002-09, 2017-18), Bears (2010-13), Packers (2014-16)
Résumé since 2000: 159.5 sacks, 51 forced fumbles, six-time All-Pro

No player recorded more sacks this quarter century than Peppers. There’s a fair critique that his numbers are a product of longevity, but he also had almost 20 more sacks than anyone in this span and a higher plus-EPA than any other player since 2001, period. One reason he led that latter category over star linebackers — who are favored in the stat — is because Peppers’ 51 forced fumbles were the most since 2000. — Walder

Practice squad: T.J. Watt, Michael Strahan

play

0:33

Julius Peppers gives Michael Jordan credit in HOF speech

Julius Peppers shouts out fellow Tar Heel Michael Jordan for inspiring him throughout his Hall of Fame career.

Defensive tackles (3)

Teams: Rams (2014-23)
Résumé since 2000: 111 sacks, 24 forced fumbles, one-time Super Bowl champion, three-time DPOY, eight-time All-Pro

Donald is certainly the greatest defensive tackle of the past 25 years and possibly the greatest in NFL history. His 20.5 sacks in 2018 set a single-season record for a primary defensive tackle, while his career total is second among defensive tackles (since 1982) behind John Randle’s 137.5.

Donald is one of only three players in NFL history to win three DPOY awards (along with J.J. Watt and Lawrence Taylor). Only two other defensive linemen can match his number of first-team All-Pro selections (Reggie White and Bruce Smith, eight). Donald even went out on top, leading all defensive tackles in pass rush win rate in his final season. — Schatz

Teams: Cardinals (2008-16, 2025-present), Jaguars (2017-19), Ravens (2020-22), Falcons (2023), Dolphins (2024)
Résumé since 2000: 110.5 sacks, 18 forced fumbles, three-time All-Pro

Though Campbell has had the benefit of a 17-year (and counting!) career, his numbers are truly quite remarkable. He’s only one sack shy of passing Donald’s career total, while his total plus-EPA ranks fourth among all players and first among interior defenders. Campbell has moved around a lot over his career, but he’d play the 3-technique for this team (that’s the position he has played the most since NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data started in 2017). — Walder

Teams: Chiefs (2016-current)
Résumé since 2000: 80.5 sacks, 13 forced fumbles, three-time Super Bowl champion, six-time All-Pro

There were a number of great interior defensive linemen who we considered for this team, and some of them had more first-team All-Pros than Jones’ three. Kevin Williams had five, Cameron Heyward four and Warren Sapp also three (not including his career before 2000). In the end, we asked ourselves this: Who would we choose if we needed to win one big game? So we went with the player who anchored a defense for three championship teams.

If Donald didn’t exist, Jones would have ranked first in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle for five consecutive seasons (2020-24). In two of those seasons, he also ranked first in double-team rate at defensive tackle. — Schatz

Practice squad: Kevin Williams, Cameron Heyward

Nose tackles (1)

Teams: Patriots (2004-14), Texans (2015-16)
Résumé since 2000: 16 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, two-time Super Bowl champion, five-time All-Pro

While there were plenty of other defensive tackles who could threaten the quarterback, we wanted to make sure we put at least one nose tackle on the squad. Wilfork hit 105 in approximate value — a statistic by Pro Football Reference that attributes a single number on the seasonal value of a player. That’s the most by any nose tackle in our span and the fourth most among any defensive tackle regardless of alignment, giving Wilfork an edge over five-time Pro Bowler and longtime Steeler Casey Hampton. — Walder

Versatile defensive linemen (1)

Teams: Texans (2011-20), Cardinals (2021-22)
Résumé since 2000: 114.5 sacks, 27 forced fumbles, three-time DPOY, seven-time All-Pro

We wanted to save a spot for Watt because he can play as an edge rusher or interior lineman. He is one of only three players in history to win Defensive Player of the Year three times, and he has the best plus-EPA of any player since 2000 (minimum 50 games).

Another way to describe Watt’s greatness is with a look at defeats. That’s a metric that adds together turnovers, tackles for loss and plays that prevent a conversion on third or fourth down. There have been only a dozen seasons of more than 40 defeats since 1991. Watt has three of them, including a record 57 defeats in 2012. — Schatz

Linebackers (5)

Teams: Ravens (1996-2012)
Résumé since 2000: 28.5 sacks, 15 forced fumbles, 24 interceptions, two-time Super Bowl champion, two-time DPOY, seven-time All-Pro

The preeminent linebacker of this quarter century, Lewis’ numbers back up his reputation. He led all linebackers in Pro Football Reference’s approximate value metric over these 25 years, even though that time period missed the first four years of his career. Lewis’ plus-EPA per game ranks second among all players since 2001, and that even omits one of his DPOY seasons. And from 2001 to 2012 (the time when Lewis played that we have EPA data to measure), the Ravens ranked as the best defense in the NFL in terms of EPA per play. — Walder

play

1:42

Lewis watched Manning’s every move to prepare for NFL Sundays

Ray Lewis shares his film strategy with Peyton Manning, saying he was watching Manning’s every move. For more Peyton’s Places, sign up for ESPN+ today at https://plus.espn.com/.

Teams: Seahawks (2012-21, 2023), Rams (2022), Commanders (2024-present)
Résumé since 2000: 35 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, 13 interceptions, one-time Super Bowl champion, 11-time All-Pro

Wagner has the same number of first-team All-Pro selections as Lewis (seven), which is more than any other linebacker since 2000. His 10 Pro Bowl selections don’t even include the year he finished second in the Defensive Rookie of the Year balloting (2012) or the year he helped lead the Seahawks to a Super Bowl win (2013). Wagner also led the NFL in tackles three times. Since 2000, only London Fletcher has more tackles than Wagner’s 1,838. — Schatz

Teams: Bears (2000-12)
Résumé since 2000: 41.5 sacks, 11 forced fumbles, 22 interceptions, one-time DPOY, five-time All-Pro

The Urlacher-led Bears had the third-best defense in terms of EPA per play from 2001 to ’12. His 22 career interceptions are the second most by any linebacker in the past 25 years, behind only Lewis’ 26. Urlacher ranks fourth among all players in plus-EPA per game at minus-3.59, too. — Walder

Teams: Buccaneers (2012-current)
Résumé since 2000: 39 sacks, 31 forced fumbles, 13 interceptions, one-time Super Bowl champion, three-time All-Pro

No linebacker over the past 25 years has dominated with splash plays quite like David. His 415 defeats rank third among all players since 1991 (behind Lewis and Junior Seau), while his 31.9 defeats per season rank first. David also has 330 pass tackle stops (tackles after pass receptions that prevent the offense from having a successful play). Derrick Brooks (275) is the only other player since 1991 with more than 240. It’s ridiculous that David has only two total Pro Bowl (2015) or first-team All-Pro (2013) selections, but we’re not letting that keep him off our team. — Schatz

Teams: Panthers (2012-19)
Résumé since 2000: 12.5 sacks, 18 interceptions, one-time DPOY, seven-time All-Pro

Kuechly’s career burned so hot over its short eight-year span. The only one of those seasons in which he did not reach the Pro Bowl and earn first- or second-team All-Pro honors was 2012 … when he won Defensive Rookie of the Year. Kuechly’s 9.2 tackles per game and 0.15 interceptions per game are the second- and third-most of any linebacker in this century, respectively. — Walder

Practice squad: Derrick Brooks

Cornerbacks (5)

Teams: Jets (2007-12, 2015-16), Buccaneers (2013), Patriots (2014), Chiefs (2017)
Résumé since 2000: 29 interceptions, one-time Super Bowl champion, four-time All-Pro

Even the best receivers in the NFL disappeared on Revis Island. In the star cornerback’s best season (2009), the Jets allowed an average of 29 receiving yards per game to opposing WR1s. Revis’ 31 passes defensed that year are still an NFL record, four more than any other cornerback has ever had in a single season. — Schatz

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Teams: Washington (1999-2003), Broncos (2004-13)
Résumé since 2000: 5 forced fumbles, 47 interceptions, seven-time All-Pro

Bailey amassed more approximate value (149), per Pro Football Reference, since 2000 than any other cornerback by a healthy margin (Patrick Peterson was second at 131). His number of interceptions from 2000 rank third most in this span. Bailey qualifies for this team on both peak and longevity; he is tied with Ray Lewis for the most Pro Bowl nods (12) on this roster. — Walder

Teams: Buccaneers (1997-2012)
Résumé since 2000: 24 sacks, 13 forced fumbles, 43 interceptions, one-time Super Bowl champion, five-time All-Pro

Barber was one of the integral parts of the “Tampa 2” defense that dominated the NFL in the early 2000s. Plenty of cornerbacks in that era played close to the line of scrimmage as part of a Cover 2 shell, but no one matched Barber’s numbers against the run and pass. He leads all defensive backs with 292 defeats since 2000; Charles Woodson is the only other defensive back above 220. Barber’s interceptions rank sixth in that span, and he also made the most tackles on running plays (477). — Schatz

Teams: Seahawks (2011-17), 49ers (2018-20), Buccaneers (2021)
Résumé since 2000: 5 forced fumbles, 37 interceptions, one-time Super Bowl champion, five-time All-Pro

Sherman headlined the “Legion of Boom” secondary that took over the NFL in the 2010s, making the game-clinching deflection that sent the Seahawks to their second Super Bowl appearance of the 21st century. And in retrospect, it’s a testament to Sherman and Earl Thomas III (more on him later) that the emulations by other teams of Seattle’s Cover 3 defense never had as much success as the original. From 2012 to 2014, Sherman earned three straight first-team All-Pro selections and recorded 20 interceptions. — Walder

Teams: Cardinals (2011-20), Vikings (2021-22), Steelers (2023)
Résumé since 2000: 2 forced fumbles, 36 interceptions, three-time All-Pro

Peterson’s career had a long tail, but that shouldn’t overshadow his eight-year peak from 2011 to 2018. He was above average in yards allowed per target in each season during the early part of his career, peaking when he allowed a league-leading 4.4 yards per target in 2015. Peterson also tied for eighth (with Sherman) in interceptions during the past 25 seasons. — Schatz

Practice squad: Jalen Ramsey

Safeties (4)

Teams: Ravens (2002-12), Texans (2013), Jets (2013)
Résumé since 2000: 11 forced fumbles, 64 interceptions, one-time Super Bowl champion, one-time DPOY, eight-time All-Pro

The ultimate ball hawk, Reed picked off 15 more passes than any other defensive back in this quarter century. His 0.39 picks per game were by far the highest, amounting to almost one interception per 10 quarters! During his Defensive Player of the Year season in 2004, he picked off nine passes (the first of two seasons he hit that number). — Walder

Teams: Steelers (2003-14)
Résumé since 2000: 12 sacks, 14 forced fumbles, 32 interceptions, two-time Super Bowl champion, one-time DPOY, six-time All-Pro

Polamalu flying all over the field epitomized what NFL teams began prioritizing with modern safeties. He is fifth among safeties with 103 passes defensed since 2000. He also had 80 run stops (tackles to stop runs short of a successful play), which is third among all defensive backs since 2000. — Schatz

play

2:32

Polamalu receives HOF jacket, pays tribute to Steelers during speech

Troy Polamalu gets to don his gold Hall of Fame jacket for the first time and lauds the Pittsburgh Steelers during his speech.

Teams: Eagles (1996-2008), Broncos (2009-11)
Résumé since 2000: 22.5 sacks, 29 forced fumbles, 25 interceptions, five-time All-Pro

Dawkins delivered some huge hits during his 12 seasons this quarter century, as evidenced by the fact that he forced the second-most fumbles among DBs in our span and finished with the third-most sacks. When Dawkins was on the Eagles from 2000 to ’08, Philadelphia ranked third in EPA allowed per dropback on defense. — Walder

Teams: Seahawks (2010-18), Ravens (2019)
Résumé since 2000: 12 forced fumbles, 30 interceptions, one-time Super Bowl champion, five-time All-Pro

Thomas doesn’t have many impressive numbers because you don’t accumulate numbers when nobody will throw near you. He shut down the deep part of the field for the Seahawks, earning a Pro Bowl nod in five straight seasons (2011-15). At his peak in 2013, Seattle was the No. 1 defense against both short passes and deep passes on the way to a Super Bowl XLVIII win. — Walder

Practice squad: Charles Woodson

Kickers (1)

Teams: Ravens (2012-24)
Résumé since 2000: 1,775 points scored, 89.1% field goal percentage, one-time Super Bowl champion, eight-time All-Pro

The recently released Tucker is clearly the best kicker in these 25 years — and perhaps ever. If we compare him to other top contenders such as Adam Vinatieri, Sebastian Janikowski, Phil Dawson and Robbie Gould, Tucker recorded a higher field goal percentage from 40-44 yards, 45-49 yards and 50-54 yards. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he also had the most field goals made over expectation (24.5, with no other player reaching 17) and the most win probability added among kickers (plus-78%) since 2017. — Walder

Punters (1)

Teams: Raiders (2000-12), Texans (2013-17)
Résumé since 2000: 47.6 yards per punt, nine-time All-Pro

One of the greatest and longest-tenured punters in NFL history, Lechler was named a first-team All-Pro in his rookie season. Throughout his 18-year career, he racked up more first-team All-Pro selections (six) than any other punter in NFL history (no one has had more than four). Lechler led the league in gross punt average in five seasons, and his career average in yards per punt is an NFL record for punters who have played over 120 games. — Schatz

Return specialists (1)

Teams: Bears (2006-13), Falcons (2014-15), Ravens (2016), Seahawks (2016)
Résumé since 2000: 20 return touchdowns, 11,028 total return yards, four-time All-Pro

Though Hester is remembered for scoring on the opening kickoff in Super Bowl XLI, he was actually more prolific as a punt returner. Fourteen of his return touchdowns came off punts; no other player recorded more than four in that same span. In 2024, he became the first return specialist to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. — Walder

Practice squad: Cordarrelle Patterson

play

1:02

Devin Hester thanks mom at HOF induction: ‘Your son is a Hall of Famer!’

Devin Hester shares an emotional moment with his mom at his enshrinement into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Special teamers (1)

Teams: Patriots (2008-23)
Résumé since 2000: 4,487 special teams snaps, three-time Super Bowl champion, five-time All-Pro

The Patriots had above-average special teams DVOA every single season from 1996 through 2020, and Slater was a huge factor in the second half of that streak as a gunner. Slater stayed in the NFL for 16 seasons despite having just one career reception at wide receiver and only one season with more than 20 defensive snaps at safety (both in 2011). There’s no way we were leaving him off this team. — Schatz

Long-snappers (1)

Teams: Ravens (2010-20), Titans (2021-present)
Résumé since 2000: 233 starts, one-time Super Bowl champion, one-time All-Pro

We’re not going to act like long-snapper experts, but Cox is a five-time Pro Bowler and earned his lone first-team All-Pro award in 2020 — the first year long-snappers were added to the team. He has played 15 years in the league for the Ravens and Titans. — Walder

Coaching staff

Bill Belichick, head coach

We wrestled back and forth here, considering both Belichick and Andy Reid. Reid has the advantage of sustained success with multiple quarterbacks and multiple franchises, but we went with Belichick because of his superior success in the postseason: nine Super Bowl appearances and six Super Bowl championships.

Belichick also won in different ways. His early Patriots teams were more about the defense, highlighted by a game plan that slowed down the 2001 Rams’ dynamic offense. The midcareer Patriots were offensive juggernauts. At the end of his New England tenure, the team went back to being defense-first, highlighted by a 13-3 victory in its final Super Bowl. — Schatz

Catch up on the NFL offseason

• Offseason dates | OTAs and minicamps
• 10 lingering questions | 2025 schedules
• Draft pick analysis | Kiper’s draft grades
• Free agency grades | Top remaining FAs
Draft | Free agency | Coaching hires

Kyle Shanahan, offensive coordinator

Our criteria for the coordinators was that head coaches were allowed as long as they spent some time as a coordinator in this quarter century. Shanahan — along with Sean McVay and the resulting coaching tree — proliferated a schematic shift across the league that happened to be quite successful.

Teams coordinated or coached by Shanahan averaged 0.06 EPA per play (postseason included), including three seasons where they ranked top two in DVOA and six seasons in the top six. Shanahan’s statistical success is notable given that he usually hasn’t had elite quarterbacks playing for him — the quarterback with the most playing time under him is Jimmy Garoppolo. — Walder

Wade Phillips, defensive coordinator

Phillips not only has a record of coordinating strong defenses at multiple stops; he also has a great record of improving those defenses. He took the Falcons’ defense from 24th in DVOA in 2001 to 10th in 2002. He took the Chargers’ defense from 28th in 2003 to ninth in 2004. He took the Texans’ defense — with some help from rookie J.J. Watt, of course — from 30th in 2010 to eighth in 2011. Then he took the Broncos to No. 1 in defensive DVOA in both 2015 and 2016, with a Super Bowl championship.

Including Phillips’ stops as a head coach (Bills and Cowboys), his defenses have ranked in the top half of the league in 15 of 18 seasons since 2000. — Schatz

Dave Toub, special teams coordinator

Toub holds one of the most impressive streaks a coach can have. He coordinated a top-five special teams unit in every season from 2006 (when ESPN’s efficiency ratings began) to 2017, including the postseason. That completely absurd streak — almost impossible considering the fickle nature of special teams — was broken in 2018 when Toub’s Chiefs finished … sixth in the category. — Walder



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