In brief
- Crypto markets have swung bullish this week, shifting odds dramatically back in favor of new all-time high marks for Bitcoin and Solana.
- Predictors believe Bitcoin is much more likely to hit $125,000 before $105,000, as it topped $121K on Thursday.
- Speculation about a Polymarket token is picking up steam, but predictors don’t expect an announcement before the end of the year.
Fickle prediction market users went from bullish to bearish in the last few weeks as crypto prices dipped and demand stagnated. But after consecutive green days following the U.S. government shutdown, predictors are once more leaning bullish.
That’s once more led to notable swings in Myriad’s most traded prediction markets involving Bitcoin and Solana.
Here’s a deeper look into some of the most-traded markets on Myriad this week.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)
Bitcoin’s next hit: Moon to $125K or dip to $105K?
Market Open: July 10
Market Close: Open to resolution
Volume: $379K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Bitcoin’s next hit: Moon to $125K or dip to $105K” market on Myriad
Bitcoin got within $872 of hitting $125,000 on August 14, sending odds for this popular market to hit 94% in favor of “$125,000.”
But the brief euphoria that had predictors nearly certain of a move to $125,000 soon faded. By August 29, odds of $125,000 shrunk to 25.2% as bears took control.
Now, as the top crypto asset reclaimed $120,000 on Thursday, predictors have once more found their bullish streak. Odds of mooning to $125,000 have jumped by more than 50% in the last two days, drastically swinging from as low as 28% to its current standing of 81% as of Thursday afternoon.
Maybe it’s “Uptober.” Historically a strong month for Bitcoin, BTC has been green in nine of the last ten Octobers, adding fuel to the meme that another strong month is pre-ordained for the market.
While analysts told Decrypt this week that macro traders aren’t likely to trade solely based on calendars, increasing odds of rate cuts and strong ETF inflows are creating conditions that support the move upward.
Will it be enough to create a new all-time high at $125,000?
What’s Next? Thanks to a nearly 11% gain this week, BTC sits just 2.6% off its all-time high and 3.47% from $125,000.
Will Polymarket announce a token this year?
Market Open: August 6
Market Close: December 31
Volume: $105K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Will Polymarket announce a token this year?” market on Myriad
Prediction market headlines have been abundant throughout the last year, as the use case becomes one of crypto’s most important consumer breakthroughs.
And now, one of the leading prediction markets, Polymarket, is expected to make its return to U.S. markets.
Regulatory filings show that the market could be open to U.S. residents as soon as Thursday, four years after it was banned by the CFTC. Though its return does not signal any intent to launch a token, earlier reports suggested the prediction market is mulling a potential token launch.
Predictors on Myriad do not think the firm will announce a token—at least not in 2025.
Odds of Polymarket announcing plans for an initial coin offering (ICO) or token generation event (TGE) in 2025 now stand at 25% on Myriad. In other words, predictors think there is a 73% chance that the leading prediction market platform will not announce any token-related news before the year ends.
That marks an odds shift of around 23% in the last few days, leading to a strong deviation in the pair of options after the market had ranged between 40-60% since its inception.
Some users are speculating that the firm will give U.S. users an opportunity to “farm” its hypothetical token prior to an official announcement and launch, but there’s nothing official yet. And as time ticks down on the year, the odds of token news are slipping.
What’s Next? Polymarket’s U.S. launch is apparently imminent.
New Solana all-time high this year?
Market Open: August 6
Market Close: December 31
Volume: $105K
Link: See the latest odds on the “New Solana All-Time High By Year End” market on Myriad
At $232, Solana sits 20.6% off its all-time high of $293.31, but predictors on Myriad are split on whether or not the asset will make a high mark this year.
The sixth-largest crypto asset by market cap has outperformed its leading peers this week, jumping more than 19% in that time while Bitcoin and Ethereum have gained just 10.7% and 16.9%, respectively.
The momentum has swung back on the volatile all-time high prediction market, with odds now standing at 54% in favor of “yes,” while 46% of predictors do not expect a new all-time high before the calendar turns to 2026.
That represents about a 6% swing in the last few days as predictors give way to the momentum of the SOL price movement.
Odds have been seesawing in this market, with odds of “yes” falling as low as 37.7% last week. The week before that, they rose as high as 65.5%.
The current upswing, though, could soon be buoyed by long-awaited catalysts, like the anticipated approval of Solana ETFs—where approval odds are “really 100% now,” according to Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas.
To Balchunas, it’s no longer an if, but a when for the SOL ETFs—and that when is likely to be any day now.
Add in the fact that Forward Industries plans to add another $4 billion in funding for SOL purchases and new digital asset treasuries like VisonSys are joining the queue, and an all-time high may be in sight.
What’s Next? Solana ETFs are expected to go live in October.
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