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MLB 2025: Overreactions to Brewers’ wins, Mets’ losses, more

by admin August 20, 2025

David SchoenfieldAug 19, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
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- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995

Whew. That was some weekend. The Milwaukee Brewers kept winning — until they finally lost. The New York Mets kept losing — until they finally won. The Los Angeles Dodgers made a big statement, the Philadelphia Phillies suffered a crushing injury, and the Chicago Cubs managed to win a series even though their bats remain cold.

What’s going on with these National League contenders? With fan bases in euphoria or despair, let’s make some verdicts on those current states of overreaction.

Overreaction: The Brewers are unquestionably MLB’s best team

“Unquestionably” is a loaded word, especially since we’re writing this right after the Brewers reeled off 14 consecutive victories and won a remarkable 29 of 33 games. They became just the 11th team this century to win at least 14 in a row, and you don’t fluke your way to a 14-game winning streak: Each of the previous 10 teams to win that many in a row made the playoffs, and four won 100 games. Baseball being baseball, however, none won the World Series.

The Brewers were just the sixth team this century to win 29 of 33. Cleveland won 30 of 33 in 2017, riding a 22-game winning streak that began in late August. That team, which finished with 102 wins but lost the wild-card series to the New York Yankees, resembled these Brewers as a small-market, scrappy underdog. The Dodgers in 2017 and 2022 and the A’s in 2001 and 2002 also won 29 of 33. None of these teams won the World Series, either.

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For the season, the Brewers have five more wins than the Detroit Tigers while easily leading the majors in run differential at plus-168, with the Cubs a distant second at plus-110. Those figures seem to suggest the Brewers are clearly the best team, with a nice balance of starting pitching (No. 1 in ERA), relief pitching (No. 10 in ERA and No. 8 in win probability added), offense (No. 1 in runs scored), defense (No. 7 in defensive runs saved) and baserunning (No. 2 in stolen bases). None of their position players were All-Stars, but other than shortstop Joey Ortiz the Brewers roll out a lineup that usually features eight average-or-better hitters, with Christian Yelich heating up and Andrew Vaughn on a tear since he joined the club.

On the other hand, via Clay Davenport’s third-order wins and losses, which project a team’s winning percentage based on underlying statistics adjusted for quality of opponents, the Brewers are neck-and-neck with the Cubs, with both teams a few projected wins behind the Yankees. Essentially, the Brewers have scored more runs and allowed fewer than might otherwise be expected based on statistics. Indeed, the Brewers lead the majors with a .288 average with runners in scoring position while holding their opponents to the third-lowest average with runners in scoring position.

Those underlying stats, though, include the first four games of the season, when the Brewers went 0-4 and allowed 47 runs. Several of those relievers who got pounded early on are no longer in the bullpen, and ever since the Brewers sorted out their relief arms, the pen has been outstanding: It’s sixth in ERA and third in lowest OPS allowed since May 1.

Then factor in that the Brewers now have Brandon Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski in the rotation (although Misiorowski struggled in his last start following a two-week stint on the injured list). The Brewers are also the best baserunning team in the majors, which leads to a few extra runs above expectation.

VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Brewers look like the most well-rounded team in the majors, particularly if Yelich and Vaughn keep providing power in the middle of the order. They have played well against good teams: 6-0 against the Dodgers, 3-0 against the Phillies and Boston Red Sox, 4-2 against the New York Mets and 7-3 against the Cincinnati Reds. They’re 5-4 against the Cubs with four games left in the five-game series. None of this guarantees a World Series, but they’re on pace to win 100 games because they are the best team going right now.

Overreaction: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s struggles are a big concern

On July 30, PCA went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two runs in a 10-3 victory for the Cubs over the Brewers. He was hitting .272/.309/.559, playing electrifying defense in center field, and was the leader in the NL MVP race with 5.7 fWAR, more than a win higher than Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. The Brewers had started to get hot, but the Cubs, after leading the NL Central most of the season, were just a game behind in the standings.

July 31 was an off day. Then the calendar flipped to August and Crow-Armstrong entered a slump that has featured no dying quails, no gorks, no ground balls with eyes. He’s 8-for-52 in August with no home runs, one RBI and two runs scored. The Cubs, averaging 5.3 runs per game through the end of July, are at just 2.75 runs per game in August and have seen the Brewers build a big lead in the division.

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Crow-Armstrong’s slump isn’t necessarily a surprise. Analysts have been predicting regression for some time due to one obvious flaw in PCA’s game: He swings at everything. He has the fifth-highest chase rate among qualified batters, swinging at over 42% of pitches out of the strike zone. It seemed likely that it was only a matter of time before pitchers figured out how to exploit Crow-Armstrong’s aggressiveness.

Doubling down on the regression predictions, PCA has produced strong power numbers despite a below-average hard-hit rate (44th percentile) and average exit velocity (47th percentile). Although raw power isn’t always necessary to produce extra-base power — see Jose Altuve — those metrics were a red flag that PCA might have been overachieving.

VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. OK, here’s the odd thing: PCA’s chase rate has improved in August to just 28%, but that hasn’t translated to success. His hard-hit rate isn’t much lower than it was the rest of the season (although his average fly ball distance has dropped about 20 feet). His struggles against left-handers are real: After slugging .600 against them in April, he has hit .186 and slugged .390 against them since May 1. He’ll start hitting again at some point, but it’s reasonable to assume he’s not going to hit like he did from April through July.

It’s not all on PCA, however. Kyle Tucker has been just as bad in August (.148, no home runs, one RBI). Michael Busch is hitting .151. Seiya Suzuki has only one home run. Those four had carried the offense, and all are scuffling at once. For the Cubs to rebound, they need this entire group to get back on track. Put it this way: The Cubs have won just three of their past eight series — and those were against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox.

Overreaction: The Mets are doomed and will miss the playoffs

On July 27, the Mets completed a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants to improve to 62-44, holding a 1½-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. According to FanGraphs, New York’s odds of winning the division stood at 55% and its chances of making the playoffs were nearly 97%. A few days later, the Mets reinforced the bullpen — the club’s biggest weakness — with Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers at the trade deadline (after already acquiring Gregory Soto).

It’s never that easy with the Mets though, is it? The San Diego Padres swept them. The Cleveland Guardians swept them. The Brewers swept them. Helsley lost three games and blew a lead in another outing. The rotation has a 6.22 ERA in August. The Mets lost 14 of 16 before finally taking the final two games against the Seattle Mariners this past weekend to temporarily ease the panic level from DEFCON 1 to DEFCON 2. The Phillies have a comfortable lead in the division and the Mets have dropped to the third wild-card position, just one game ahead of the Reds. The team with the highest payroll in the sport is in very real danger of missing the playoffs.

VERDICT: OVERREACTION. The bullpen issues are still a concern given Helsley’s struggles, and Rogers has fanned just one of the 42 batters he has faced since joining the Mets. Still, this team is loaded with talent, as reflected in FanGraphs’ playoffs odds, which gave the Mets an 86% chance of making the postseason entering Monday (with the Reds at 14%). One note, however: The Reds lead the season series 2 games to 1, which gives them the tiebreaker edge if the teams finish with the same record. A three-game set in Cincinnati in early September looms as one of the biggest series the rest of the season. Mets fans have certainly earned the right to brood over the team’s current state of play, but the team remains favored to at least squeak out a wild card.

Overreaction: Zack Wheeler’s absence is a big problem for the Phillies

The Phillies’ ace just went on the IL because of a blood clot near his right shoulder, with no timetable on a potential return. The injury is serious enough that his availability for the rest of the season is in jeopardy. Manager Rob Thomson said the team has enough rotation depth to battle on without Wheeler, but there are some other issues there as well:

• Ranger Suarez has a 5.86 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.

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• Aaron Nola was activated from the IL on Sunday to replace Wheeler for his first MLB start in three months and gave up six runs in 2⅓ innings, raising his season ERA to 6.92.

• Taijuan Walker has a 3.34 ERA but also a 4.73 FIP and probably isn’t someone you would feel comfortable starting in a playoff series.

• Even Jesus Luzardo has been inconsistent all season, with a 4.21 ERA.

Minus Wheeler, that arguably leaves Cristopher Sanchez as the team’s only sure-thing reliable starter at the moment. Though a trip to the playoffs certainly looks secure, all this opens the door for the Mets to make it a race for the division title.

VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Making the playoffs is one thing, but it’s also about peaking at the right time, and given the scary nature of Wheeler’s injury, the Phillies might not end up peaking when they need to. Nola certainly can’t be counted on right now and Suarez has suddenly struggled a bit to miss bats. There’s time here for Nola and Suarez to fix things, and the bullpen has been strengthened with the additions of Jhoan Duran and David Robertson, but even with Wheeler, the Phillies are just 22-18 since the beginning of July. Indeed, their ultimate hopes might rest on an offense that has let them down the past two postseasons and hasn’t been great this season aside from Kyle Schwarber. If they don’t score runs, it won’t matter who is on the mound.

Overreaction: The Dodgers just buried the Padres with their three-game sweep

It was a statement series: The Dodgers, battled, bruised and slumping, had fallen a game behind the Padres in the NL West. But they swept the Padres at Dodger Stadium behind stellar outings from Clayton Kershaw and Blake Snell, and a clutch Mookie Betts home run to cap a rally from a 4-0 deficit. Still the kings of the NL West, right?

After all, the Dodgers are finally rolling out that dream rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Snell and Kershaw are all healthy and at full strength for the first time this season. Only Roki Sasaki is missing. Yamamoto has been solid all season, Ohtani ramped up to 80 pitches in his last start, Glasnow has a 2.50 ERA since returning from the IL in July, Snell has reeled off back-to-back scoreless starts, and even Kershaw, while not racking up many strikeouts, has lowered his season ERA to 3.01. That group should carry the Dodgers to their 12th division title in the past 13 seasons.

VERDICT: OVERREACTION. Calm down. One great series does not mean the Dodgers are suddenly fixed or that the Padres will fade away. The Dodgers’ bullpen is still battling injuries, Betts still has a sub-.700 OPS and injuries have forced them to play Alex Freeland, Miguel Rojas and Buddy Kennedy in the infield. Check back after next weekend, when the Padres host the Dodgers for their final regular-season series of 2025.

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August 20, 2025 0 comments

Esports

How Skubal and Skenes dominate MLB, according to teammates

by admin August 19, 2025

Jesse RogersAug 19, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
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Both of MLB’s 2025 Cy Young favorites came from humble pitching beginnings. Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes started his meteoric rise to stardom at the Air Force Academy, while Detroit Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal came of age at Seattle University. Neither place screams baseball immortality, but both pitchers could be flirting with historic achievements for the rest of their careers provided they stay healthy.

Skenes was the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year, while Skubal won the American League Cy Young Award last season — and their paths recently crossed as the 2025 All-Star Game starting pitchers in Atlanta. As they head down the stretch with the opportunity to collect more hardware this season, ESPN asked their teammates, team personnel and Skubal and Skenes themselves what makes the two best pitchers in the sport so special.

“Really advanced stuff and fill up the strike zone; they go right at guys,” Tigers starter Casey Mize said, summing up the feelings of those who have watched both aces. “So, they’re in advantageous counts a lot, applying a lot of pressure. The biggest thing to worry about is getting jumped early in counts, so they have to be good early on. But it feels like when they get strike one, the at-bat is over.”

‘He’s a guy that you can talk to when he’s starting’

Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images

The similarities between the two pitchers begin with the vibe they generate throughout the stadium when it’s their turn to pitch. There’s a different feeling in the clubhouse on a Skenes or Skubal day because of how games play out when they’re on the mound.

“You just know the other team isn’t going to do very much,” Tigers infielder Zach McKinstry said when it’s a Skubal day. “Defense is kind of boring that game.”

As a smiling teammate Spencer Torkelson added, “You can almost be blindfolded playing behind him.”

Pirates outfielder Tommy Pham has his own way of recognizing when Pittsburgh’s ace is pitching. It begins when Pham gets dressed to come to the park.

“He wears a suit to the field, so I started trying to keep up with him on ‘Skenes Day,'” Pham said. “I call out Skenes Day by wearing a suit with him so he’s not the only one.

“And we normally don’t need to score a lot of runs that day.”

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Despite Skenes’ formal attire and nasty stuff, it stands out to his teammates that Skenes is still approachable when it is his day to take the mound.

“He’s a guy that you can talk to when he’s starting,” Pham stated. “I’ve played with guys, when they’re starting, you can’t talk to them, which I feel is bulls—. But he’s not like that.”

Skubal exhibits that trait, as well, according to Detroit infielder Zach McKinstry. Skubal will talk to teammates like it’s any other game.

The confidence in each pitcher’s crafts allows for a normal day, according to the players in both locker rooms.

The Tigers also get an extra jolt of energy during their pennant race as they play meaningful games down the stretch: Comerica Park comes alive when their ace takes the mound.

“Every jersey you see is a No. 29 jersey,” McKinstry said. “They love him. And he loves what he does. And we love to play behind him.”

‘We play a defensive position, but he makes it look like offense’

Jason Miller/Getty Images

If there is one difference between Skubal and Skenes, it is that Skubal is in attack mode more than anyone in the league. He leads MLB in throwing his first pitch for a strike at 70% of the time. Overall, he throws strikes 55% of the time — good for third most in baseball.

Being in the zone so often is one reason Skubal is third in the majors in innings pitched this season, after finishing eighth in that category last season.

“When it gets to those later innings, you do feel like he has a chance to go the distance,” Tigers reliever Will Vest said. “It’s because he’s so efficient with his pitches.”

Skubal has pitched at least seven innings in 10 starts this season, including his signature outing: a 13-strikeout shutout against the Cleveland Guardians on May 25. That performance still resonates in the Tigers’ clubhouse three months later, especially after his last pitch registered at 103 mph.

“The aggressiveness,” Mize explained. “We play a defensive position, but he makes it look like offense. He’s going at everybody. He doesn’t care. That game illustrated that.”

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Skenes, on the other hand, ranks 33rd in first-strike percentage (62.1) with a full arsenal that allows him to attack hitters differently.

“He has a larger tool box,” Pirates assistant pitching coach Brent Strom said. “It enables him to have weapons against different types of hitters. He pitches to his strengths.”

According to Baseball Savant, Skenes has thrown seven different types of pitches this season — as compared with Skubal’s five — and Skenes’ swinging-strike percentage ranks seventh. It all adds up to a pitch mix that keeps hitters baffled, even when they get pitches to hit.

“It’s full-on ‘here it is, hit it,'” Pirates catcher Joey Bart said. “He’s not scared of anyone.”

‘Everything is by the numbers, and he leaves nothing to chance’

Charles LeClaire/Imagn Images

Every player, no matter the position, has a routine to prepare for competition. But Skenes is especially unique in that regard.

One day, between starts, Pham asked to stand in the batter’s box while Skenes threw a bullpen session.

“Then the next day, I asked who’s throwing a pen because I needed to test out my contact lenses again,” Pham explained. “And Skenes says, ‘Hey, I’m throwing a pen.'”

Pham gave him a confused look, knowing Skenes had thrown the day before.

“He’s like, ‘Yeah, I throw every day, except for the day before my start,'” Pham recalled. “When I found that out, I was like, yeah, he’s different. I’ve never seen anybody do that.”

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Strom noted that not every bullpen session is built the same. There’s purpose to the preparation.

“His work is very organized,” Strom said. “Very thoughtful. Everything is by the numbers, and he leaves nothing to chance. He’s very cerebral. He understands what’s necessary.”

Bart recalled Skenes’ early days with the club after getting called up in May 2024. The catcher recognized the detailed preparation of the former LSU star even then, including how Skenes readied for his very first outing against the Chicago Cubs.

“I remember the first pregame meeting last year,” Bart said. “He ran the meeting in his debut. I was like, ‘Go ahead and take it, dude. You got it.’ He has been groomed for this.”

That kind of intense and directed preparedness has gained attention and admiration around the league, and it is what Skubal identified as Skenes’ most impressive trait.

“He seems like he has his routine and preparation already figured out at a young age,” Skubal said. “It took me until I was 26 to be a good big league baseball player and figure that out. And he’s doing it at 23. That’s four years faster than me. Yeah, that’s really impressive.”

‘He just wants to show that there is something memorable about greatness’

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

There’s an aura of self-assuredness to Skubal that stands out as compared with even other aces, according to those around him. He has been called a “bulldog” with a “killer” mentality by his teammates: He won’t back down, no matter the circumstance.

“He comes after you,” Torkelson said. “In big situations, he trusts his best stuff. You kind of know what you’re going to get, and it’s still hard to hit.”

That confidence enables Skubal to put himself in pitcher’s counts (0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2) 45.7% of the time, more than any other hurler in the game, according to ESPN Research. And until you show you can hit one of his best offers, he’ll just keep throwing it. He has 93 strikeouts on his changeup, second only to Philadelphia Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez.

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That mindset is what stands out most about Skubal to Skenes.

“He can go after hitters straight up,” Skenes said. “He gets them out quickly, which is why he pitches deep in games. He does that better than anyone else in the game. But it starts with going right at them. That takes confidence.”

Skubal has a commanding presence, according to Tigers play-by-play announcer Jason Benetti. It doesn’t hurt that his size (6-foot-3 and 240 pounds) naturally creates some intimidation when he is on the mound, but he makes himself known whenever he is in the game.

“On the day the All-Stars were announced last year, the Tigers were in Cincinnati, and he struck out [Elly] De La Cruz and there was this big primal scream — and that’s this indelible memory for me,” Benetti said of Skubal. “Because that is a guy that people hear about that there’s noise about, and he wants that.

“He ends innings and outings at 102 mph because he just wants to show that there is something memorable about greatness, is the way I would put it. He has greatness.”

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August 19, 2025 0 comments

Esports

Every current 2025 MLB playoff contender’s biggest strength

by admin June 22, 2025

David SchoenfieldJun 21, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
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- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are battling this weekend for a lead in the National League East that has gone back and forth between the two clubs, with the Mets opening up a 5½-game lead June 12 before losing six in a row to the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves and drawing the Phillies back in.

The Braves were supposed to be part of this mix but have stumbled through a terrible first half, leaving this as a two-team race. While Mets and Phillies fans are bitter rivals, it’s been a long time since the two teams have clashed for a division crown. Even last season, when both teams joined the Braves in the playoffs, the Mets were never really in the division race, getting no closer in the second half than five games back in the final week.

The Mets and Braves tied for the division title with 101 wins in 2022, but the Phillies finished 14 games behind, only to get hot in the postseason and reach the World Series. The Phillies were bad for a long time before that, the Mets mostly bad, so we go back to 2008 to find the most recent heated Mets-Phillies division race. The Mets were a half-game up with nine to play, but they finished 3-6, while the Phillies went 6-2 to win the division by three games — and went on to win the World Series.

What has put both teams in this position? Let’s look at the biggest strength so far for the Mets, Phillies and all the teams in the majors with records currently above .500 this season, starting with the National League.

National League

Record: 47-30 (1st in NL West)
Biggest strength: Offense
Just like the Cubs, the Dodgers might have the best offense in franchise history, league-adjusted. They lead the majors in runs scored and their wRC+ of 124 would be their highest ever. (If we remove pitchers from the equation, the top mark goes to the 1953 Brooklyn club at 126.) This is nothing new, as the Dodgers have ranked first or second in the NL in runs scored each season since 2018.
We know all about the remarkable exploits of Shohei Ohtani and his chance to become the first player to score 160 runs since Lou Gehrig, but one big key of late has been Max Muncy — now wearing glasses. Through April 29, Muncy was hitting .180 with no home runs in 28 games. He wore glasses for the first time on April 30 and homered that night. He’s hitting .281/.420/.541 since donning the eyewear, giving the Dodgers yet another lethal bat.
Record: 46-30 (1st in NL East)
Biggest strength: Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez
On paper and in the standings, the Phillies match up with the Mets. When you dig into the numbers, however, the Mets should be ahead of them. Even with their recent slide, the Mets have a plus-60 run differential, with the Phillies at plus-42. The Mets are fifth in the majors in bullpen win probability added, the Phillies way down at 23rd as they’ve struggled with their closer situation. Aaron Nola is 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA and on the IL. Even Bryce Harper has been a little down at the plate and is now injured as well.
But the Phillies do have Wheeler and Suarez (and Cristopher Sanchez has been good, too). Wheeler is doing his usual thing, once again on the short list for best pitcher in baseball. At 35, he’s not only showing no signs of age, but has a career-high strikeout rate of 32.5%. Suarez, meanwhile, is 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA in starts after beginning the season on the IL. After giving up seven runs in his first start, he has been in lockdown mode, with a 1.17 ERA across eight starts, including five of seven innings. Suarez has had runs like this before, including a 2.76 ERA in the first half last season that earned him an All-Star spot.
Record: 45-30 (1st in NL Central)
Biggest strength: Offense. And defense. AKA: Pete Crow-Armstrong
How good has the Cubs’ offense been? They’re averaging 5.36 runs per game, second in the majors. The last time they came close to that was 5.31 in 2008. The last time they averaged more per game was 1935, when five regulars hit over .300. If we adjust for league context, however, the 2025 Cubs have the highest wRC+ in franchise history since 1900. This is an excellent offense.

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How good has the Cubs’ defense been? They’re second in the majors in both defensive runs saved and Statcast’s fielding run value.

Leading the way on both sides of the ball has been the thrilling, the wonderful, the breathtaking Pete Crow-Armstrong. How good has the 23-year-old center fielder been? With his defense, power and speed, he has already posted 4.3 WAR though 74 games, a season-long pace of 9.5. Only four Cubs position players have topped that mark: Rogers Hornsby in 1929 (10.6), Sammy Sosa in 2001 (10.3), Ernie Banks in 1959 (10.2) and Ron Santo in 1967 (9.8).

The analytics say he can’t keep this up, that pitchers will figure how to exploit his league-worst chase rate. Except they haven’t yet (see the 452-foot home run he just hit a few days ago). In the Statcast metrics, he ranks in the 100th percentile in fielding value, 99th percentile in baserunning value, and 89th percentile in batting value. Call that the triple crown of awesomeness.

Record: 45-31 (2nd in NL East)

Biggest strength: Starting pitching

The Mets’ big three — Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso — have all been outstanding, with Soto back on track after a slow start, but the rotation has keyed the team’s strong start, leading the majors with a 3.03 ERA. They’ve done it even without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, who haven’t pitched in the majors yet this season. Leading the way have been Kodai Senga (1.47 ERA), David Peterson (2.60) and Clay Holmes (3.04). Kudos to Mets management for signing Holmes as a free agent and converting him from reliever to starter, a gutsy move that has paid huge dividends.

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Aside from likely regression, the rotation depth will now be tested. Senga just injured his hamstring and might miss a month. Tylor Megill is out with an elbow sprain and could miss up to five weeks. Montas’ rehab clock ends Sunday, but he got pounded in four Triple-A starts for Syracuse, with a 13.19 ERA and just eight strikeouts in 14⅓ innings. He looks unusable for the rotation right now, so the Mets might have to bury him in the bullpen. Manaea made a rehab start for Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, so he’s at least getting closer. The Mets might also have a weapon waiting in the minors if needed in Jonah Tong, who has a 1.97 ERA in Double-A while averaging 14.6 K’s per nine.

Record: 42-34 (2nd in NL West)

Biggest strength: Front-line pitching

The Giants are third in the majors in ERA and fifth in runs allowed per game, but have relied on a relatively small group of pitchers to achieve that: starters Logan Webb (7-5, 2.49 ERA) and Robbie Ray (8-2, 2.68 ERA) and relievers Randy Rodriguez, Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Erik Miller (all with sub-2.00 ERAs). Hayden Birdsong has also moved to the rotation from the bullpen and has a 3.25 ERA.

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Not surprisingly, the Giants receive a lot of help from their home park: Their ERA is 2.89 at home and 3.72 on the road. That road ERA is still seventh best in the majors, but the Giants have certainly thrived at home, where they are 23-14 despite averaging fewer than four runs per game. Acquiring Rafael Devers will help the offense, but the pressure will remain on the pitching to win these low-scoring games. The Giants are 18-15 in one-run games, leading the majors in one-run games played and one-run wins — with 10 such wins coming when they’ve scored three or fewer runs.

Record: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd in NL Central)

Biggest strength: Position player durability

OK, this is kind of a weird one, but we’re trying to figure out how the Brewers are once again succeeding. Their bullpen has been solid, but certainly has had a few more leaks than the past two seasons, when the pen was dominant, especially in win probability added. They’re good on the bases, but near the bottom of the league in home runs. So let’s go with lineup stability.

The Brewers have played 76 games, and seven players have played at least 70 of them. That’s pretty remarkable in today’s game, when staying healthy sometimes feels like half the battle. Other than Joey Ortiz, they have all produced positive WAR — and since the Brewers are not using their bench much or resorting to call-ups, they’re avoiding the “bad” plate appearances that drag down some lineups. No single player is tearing it up, but having seven slightly better than average hitters might be enough to win a wild card.

Record: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd in NL Central)

Biggest strength: Rotation stability

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The Cardinals have been a mild surprise, even without any specific thing standing out. Is anybody on offense killing it? Not really. Brendan Donovan is hitting over .300 and has a bunch of doubles, and Ivan Herrera is hitting over .300 and has an OPS over .900, but he missed a month. Has the bullpen been shutting opponents down? Not exactly, no. Closer Ryan Helsley has five blown saves. Is the defense great? Maybe, with Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn, but the teamwide metrics don’t stand out. Is the rotation dominating? Hardly. The rotation is 18th in ERA.

But … the rotation has been stable, with the top five guys all making at least 14 starts. They’ve needed only four starts from outside those five, two of those coming in doubleheaders and a third resulting from a doubleheader. This is a change from last year, when eight pitchers made at least six starts and especially from the 91-loss season of 2023, when only Miles Mikolas made more than 21 starts. Similar to the Brewers not using many bad position players, the Cardinals at least haven’t had to deploy any bad starters — and that keeps you in games.

Record: 40-35 (3rd in NL West)

Biggest strength: The big three (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill)

The Padres are kind of walking a tightrope right now, with several key performers either injured (Michael King, Yu Darvish) or not providing much value (Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts). Closer Robert Suarez has even had two catastrophic five-run blowups in save situations. Arraez is hitting .280, but it’s an empty .280 — he’s posting a career-low OBP with poor defensive metrics and he has been worth 0.1 WAR. Bogaerts is heading for a third straight season where his OPS+ will drop since he signed with the Padres, so he has been worth just 0.8 WAR (at least his defense has been solid).

While Gavin Sheets has stepped up in the DH role, the Padres’ lineup otherwise lacks depth: Ten different players have batted at least 10 times and have negative WAR. The Padres will no doubt look to address this at the trade deadline, but with Arraez and Bogaerts not major contributors, that puts all the pressure on Machado, Tatis and Merrill — and Merrill is currently on the concussion IL. Tatis might be the focal point here: He had a huge April with eight home runs and 1.011 OPS, slumped in May (.184 batting average, .626 OPS) and has been better in June. Let’s just say it would be beneficial for the April Tatis to show up the rest of the way.

Record: 39-37 (4th in NL Central)

Biggest strength: A young rotation finally emerging

The Reds have come up with several talented young pitchers in recent years, but have had issues keeping them healthy or seeing them productive in the same season. So far, however, the Reds’ rotation ranks third in Baseball-Reference WAR, behind only the Phillies and Royals, with Andrew Abbott (6-1, 1.84 ERA in 12 starts) perhaps on his way to a breakout season and Nick Lodolo on his way to a career high in games started and innings.

They’ll need to get Hunter Greene healthy, though. Greene tied Chris Sale for the NL lead with 6.2 bWAR last season and was on his way to a similar campaign (2.72 ERA in 11 starts) until he missed two weeks with a groin strain, returned to make three starts, and then landed back on the IL with another groin strain and a sore back that required an epidural. Veteran Wade Miley is filling in for Greene, and the options beyond him appear limited, so getting Greene back will be a must in the second half.

Record: 38-37 (4th in NL West)

Biggest strength: Offensive depth

After leading the majors in runs scored in 2024, the Diamondbacks are once again averaging more than five runs per game, one of just four teams above that mark. Leading the way: Corbin Carroll, having a bounce-back season more in line with his rookie numbers from 2023 except with even more power; Ketel Marte, with an OPS over .900; and slugging third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who has 24 home runs. Eight of the nine regulars have an OPS+ over 100, and the top two bench guys are solid-average as well.

The problem: They might need the offense to be even better. Corbin Burnes is out for the season, and Merrill Kelly has been the team’s only other consistent starter with Zac Gallen’s ERA on the wrong side of 5 and Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez getting hit hard. Outside of Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks, the bullpen has been terrible, ranking last in the majors in win probability added. The Diamondbacks will have some tough decisions at the trade deadline and will be the most interesting team to watch, with Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, Miller, Beeks and Josh Naylor all heading to free agency.

American League

Record: 48-29 (1st in AL Central)

Biggest strength: Tarik Skubal

The Detroit offense has been much improved, ranking fifth in the majors in runs per game after finishing 19th last season. On defense, the versatility of multiple players like Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry helps manager AJ Hinch. Still, the clear strength here is reigning Cy Young Award winner Skubal — who might be on his way to becoming the first repeat winner in the AL since Pedro Martinez in 2000.

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Skubal began the season with two so-so starts and lost both those games, but since then he’s 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA and an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio of 107-to-8 — yes, that’s eight walks in his past 13 starts. The Tigers are 11-2 in those games, with the two losses a 10th-inning defeat and a 1-0 finish. When Skubal starts, the Tigers usually win.

Because of Skubal’s excellence, the Tigers rank third in the majors in rotation ERA. Still, that probably overrates their depth, as Hinch has been investing heavily in openers such as Brant Hurter and Tyler Holton of late, with only Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize remaining on regular rotation. With Jackson Jobe done for the year with Tommy John surgery, Skubal’s importance ramps up even higher.

Record: 44-32 (1st in AL West)

Biggest strength: Late-game bullpen

Houston’s offense has actually been pretty solid after a poor April — even without Yordan Alvarez — and the 1-2 duo of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez has been dominant, but the back end of the bullpen has been the key for the team’s surge into first place.

It begins with closer Josh Hader. After a homer-prone first season with the Astros in 2024 in which he allowed 12 home runs in 71 innings and lost eight games, Hader is 5-1 and a perfect 18-for-18 in save opportunities. Setting him up are Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, Steven Okert and Bennett Sousa, all with sub-3.00 ERAs. Shawn Dubin has a sub-2.00 ERA in more limited action. Overall, Houston ranks fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA.

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In high-leverage situations, the bullpen has been even better, with the lowest OPS in the majors, holding batters to a .146/.233/.236 line according to TruMedia data. That performance has helped the Astros to a 14-7 record in one-run games and a 5-0 mark in extra innings.

Is the pen this good? Hader and Abreu have strong track records. That’s less true for King, Okert and Sousa — but nothing in their numbers screams fluke, as they’ve combined for 109 strikeouts and just 18 walks. Veteran Okert, 33, has been the biggest surprise. Signed as a free agent for just $1.2 million, he entered 2025 with a career walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings; suddenly he’s Greg Maddux and has just six walks in 34⅔ innings (with 44 strikeouts). Other than Abreu, the other three setup guys are left-handed, but that hasn’t been an issue so far. This pen looks like the real deal.

Record: 43-32 (1st in AL East)

Biggest strength: Aaron Judge

For the first two months of 2025, the Yankees’ offense was clicking on all cylinders. Judge was leading the way with a historic start to his season, putting up numbers only Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth had matched over a full season. But he wasn’t the only one doing big damage. Paul Goldschmidt was hitting .347 through May 28, Trent Grisham cracked 12 home runs and had an OPS over 1.000 through May 12, and Ben Rice had an OPS over .900 as late as May 20.

The Yankees not only weren’t missing Juan Soto but were thriving without him. Unlike last season, when Soto was often the only major supporting cast member, Judge suddenly had multiple mashers around him.

Alas, what happens when Judge goes into a slump? During a recent six-game losing streak, Judge went 2-for-23 with 14 strikeouts and just a solo home run for his lone RBI, his average dropping from .392 to .366. The Yankees scored six runs and were shut out in three consecutive games, just the seventh time that has happened in franchise history.

It wasn’t just Judge. Goldschmidt, Grisham and Rice have all predictably regressed from their hot starts, leading to the concern: Can this lineup score enough runs if Judge isn’t superhuman all the time?

Record: 42-34 (2nd in AL East)

Biggest strength: Infield offense

The Rays are a balanced team without any single huge strength. They do lead the majors in stolen bases, but that’s primarily from two players: Jose Caballero and Chandler Simpson (and Simpson is currently in the minors). Their overall baserunning is a strength, third in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric, but that’s a small strength and hardly the reason they’ve surged after sitting five games under .500 on May 19. They’re a good defensive team, but they’ve had better defensive teams. The pitching? Good, but they’ve had better seasons in that area as well.

Let’s go with their overall offense from the four infield positions. The Rays rank third in the majors in OPS, third in home runs and third in runs from their infielders. First baseman Jonathan Aranda has been the best hitter in this group, having his breakout season at age 27 and in line for possible All-Star selection. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is doing his usual thing, with 15 home runs, and, most importantly, has remained healthy. Taylor Walls is the defensive wizard at shortstop, while Caballero splits time there in his utility role.

Then there’s Junior Caminero. Remember him? Last year’s hyped prospect doesn’t turn 22 until July and entered the season with just 213 plate appearances, but it feels as if everyone forgot about him heading into 2025 after he didn’t immediately tear up the majors as a rookie. He remains a flawed offensive player with an OBP just north of .300 and is on pace to break Jim Rice’s single-season record for grounding into double plays, but the power has arrived with 17 home runs — and he’s been red-hot of late, hitting .317/.389/.683 since May 23 with nine home runs and 28 RBIs in 26 games. That included a 4-for-5 game Wednesday as the Rays rallied from an 8-0 deficit to beat the Orioles 12-8. That sounds like the Rays team that made the playoffs five straight years from 2019 to 2023: scrappy, underrated and capable of beating you in different ways.

Record: 40-35 (3rd in AL East)

Biggest strength: Lowest strikeout rate in majors

We’re digging here to find somewhere the Jays excel. They are a very good defensive team with either Daulton Varsho or Myles Straw in center (Varsho is on the injured list at the moment), Andres Gimenez at second, and Ernie Clement at third. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is posting the best defensive metrics of his career. The pitching certainly hasn’t been a strength. They’ve been outhomered 101 to 77, so power hasn’t been their game. Indeed, the Jays are five games over .500 even though they’ve been outscored by 14 runs.

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That makes them a hard team to read. They’re 7-13 in blowout games — those decided by five or more runs — and that’s usually a surefire indicator of a bad team. Good teams don’t get blown out more often than they blow out their opponents. The Jays have thus done well in close games, and one related cause might be their ability to put the bat on the ball. They do have five walk-off wins (as opposed to two walk-off losses) and they’re 5-2 in extra-inning contests. In the bigger picture, maybe the contact rate will eventually turn into more offense if they can turn more of those balls into extra-base hits (the Jays are just 17th in the majors in isolated power). With just nine home runs, Guerrero is certainly the primary guy to watch in this area.

Record: 40-37 (4th in AL East)

Biggest strength: Garrett Crochet

What, you expected this to say team chemistry or something? The promise of youth? No, with Rafael Devers in San Francisco and Alex Bregman still on the injured list, Crochet is the answer here. Where would this rotation be without him? Let’s do some math:

Crochet: 7-4, 2.20 ERA, 10-for-16 in quality starts

Other starters: 15-17, 5.04 ERA, 22-for-60 in quality starts

Now, maybe those “others” will improve. Tanner Houck, Sean Newcomb and Richard Fitts are a combined 0-9, and Houck is now on the IL, Newcomb is on the Athletics and Fitts is in the minors. Brayan Bello has been better his past few starts, but Boston is still looking for consistency from Walker Buehler and Lucas Giolito. Even if the young position players start hitting better, the Red Sox are going to need more than just Crochet to stabilize the rotation.

Record: 38-36 (2nd in AL West)

Biggest strength: The Big Dumper

Here’s a stat that might surprise you: The Mariners are third in the majors in road OPS. Is this actually a good offensive team, only to have that good offense masked by playing half their games in a home park where offense goes to die? The Mariners are hitting .265/.345/.428 on the road, trailing only the Cubs and Yankees in OPS. At home, however, the numbers dip to .221/.300/.371 — 24th in the majors in OPS.

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The Big Dumper is Cal Raleigh, and with the starting rotation struggling with injuries, the bullpen a little thin behind standout closer Andres Munoz and Julio Rodriguez more “meh” than awesome, Raleigh has felt like a one-man show at times. He leads the majors with 29 home runs, leads the AL with 63 RBIs, and trails only Judge in OPS. He has played in 73 of Seattle’s 74 games and does his best damage when he starts behind the plate: Twenty-seven of his 29 home runs have come as a catcher. The record for home runs by a primary catcher is Salvador Perez’s 48 in 2021, but only 33 of those came as a catcher. The record for home runs hit while catching is Javy Lopez’s 42 in 2003. Raleigh’s 180 wRC+ currently sits second highest for a primary catcher, behind only Mike Piazza’s 183 in 1997.

All that undersells how Raleigh has propped up the Mariners. He’s been clutch as well, ranking in the top three in the majors in advanced metrics such as win probability added, situational wins added and championship WPA. Oh, and he’s hitting .257/.358/.614 at home. Judge might have MVP all but locked up already, but don’t tell that to the Big Dumper.

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June 22, 2025 0 comments

Esports

Which MLB pitchers are throwing the right — or wrong — pitches?

by admin June 21, 2025

Neil PaineJun 20, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
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Pitching is about keeping hitters guessing — and about walking the line between overusing certain pitches to the point of predictability and underusing others that have quietly confounded opponents in limited doses. Now more than ever, each MLB pitcher’s repertoire is scientifically calibrated, from the shape of the ball’s arc as it approaches the plate to the spin it carries and how it looks coming out of the hand. Modern pitchers take their pitch selection as seriously as a Michelin chef planning a gourmet menu.

But even with all of that sophistication, there are inefficiencies in how pitchers deploy their stuff. Many years ago, I dove into the game theory behind pitch selection, and specifically which pitchers were throwing their different pitch types in an optimal way versus those who could stand to tweak their pitch mix a bit to achieve better results.

The thought process went like this: We know from Statcast data how frequently each pitcher throws each type of pitch, and thanks to websites such as FanGraphs, we also know how effective each pitcher’s pitches have been at preventing runs. (We now even know how good each pitch should be based on its characteristics, such as velocity, movement, spin and other factors.)

From this data, we can then find cases where there are mismatches between a pitcher’s most effective pitches and the ones he uses the most.

Of course, not every pitch can be scaled up without diminishing returns. But in general, pitchers who lean more heavily on their best pitches are likely getting more out of their repertoire than those who don’t.

Among Tommy Kahnle (Tigers), Jake Irvin (Nationals), Paul Sewald (Guardians) and Ronel Blanco (Astros), which pitcher is optimizing their arsenal and who needs to change things up? Illustration by ESPN

I then developed what I call the Nash Score for pitchers (so named for the Nash equilibrium of Game Theory, which describes a state in which any change in strategy from the current balance would result in less optimal results). Nash Scores work by comparing the runs a pitcher saves with each pitch in his arsenal to the average runs saved by all of his other pitches combined.

Pitchers with low (good) Nash Scores have achieved a close balance in effectiveness between their most-used pitches and the rest of their repertoire, which implies that any change in pitch mix would make them less effective overall. Meanwhile, pitchers who have high (bad) Nash Scores are either using ineffective pitches too much or not using their best pitches enough, suggesting that a reallocation might be needed.

Now is a good time to update Nash Scores for the current era of MLB pitchers.

Let’s highlight the top-15 qualified starters and relievers who have achieved the greatest balance according to their Nash Scores over the past three seasons (with recent years weighted more), as well as the 15 who might be leaving performance on the table.

But first, here is a chart showing all qualified MLB pitchers — using a three-year weighted pitch count — with their Nash Scores plotted against their Wins Above Replacement:

Neil Paine/ESPN

Explore the full, interactive chart.

Now, let’s get to the rankings, starting with the most balanced starters in our sample:

Irvin, Crochet among most optimized starters

Note: Listed rates for pitch types are usage share over the past three seasons and run values per 100 pitches for that pitch, relative to the average for the rest of their pitches combined.

Most Optimized Starters Over Past 3 Seasons

PitcherTeam(s)WARNash ScoreNo. 1 PitchNo. 2 PitchJake IrvinWSN4.10.054-Seam FB (35%), +0.13Curveball (33%), -0.13Garrett CrochetCHW, BOS6.70.064-Seam FB (49%), -0.14Cutter (28%), +0.18Kutter CrawfordBOS4.60.094-Seam FB (35%), -0.11Cutter (31%), +0.43Jesus LuzardoMIA, PHI6.40.114-Seam FB (40%), -0.20Slider (32%), +0.46Ryan PepiotLAD, TBR4.30.114-Seam FB (48%), +0.32Changeup (24%), -0.37Freddy PeraltaMIL7.30.154-Seam FB (55%), +0.08Changeup (18%), +0.67Taj BradleyTBR1.80.214-Seam FB (43%), -0.57Cutter (22%), +0.22Taijuan WalkerPHI1.80.25Splitter (26%), -0.57Sinker (23%), -0.16Corbin BurnesMIL, BAL, ARI9.20.34Cutter (50%), +0.57Curveball (20%), +0.03MacKenzie GoreWSN6.10.364-Seam FB (54%), +0.04Curveball (21%), +0.31Tarik SkubalDET12.50.374-Seam FB (32%), -0.05Changeup (28%), +0.62Justin VerlanderHOU, NYM, SFG3.90.394-Seam FB (49%), -0.09Slider (25%), +0.94Nathan EovaldiTEX8.20.414-Seam FB (35%), -0.30Splitter (30%), +0.84Jameson TaillonCHC4.20.424-Seam FB (34%), -0.48Cutter (20%), +0.44Reese OlsonDET4.50.42Slider (27%), +0.47Sinker (24%), +0.15

The award for the league’s most balanced starter belongs to perhaps an unlikely name: Washington Nationals righty Jake Irvin. Irvin has been an average pitcher at best in his three MLB seasons, with an ERA of 107 (100 is average and lower is better) and a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 114, and he has never even had 2 WAR in a season yet. But in terms of maximizing his repertoire, the case can be made that no pitcher is getting more out of what he has to work with.

Over the past three seasons (again, with more weight on more recent data), Irvin has almost exclusively used three pitches: four-seam fastball, curve and sinker. Each was within 0.2 runs per 100 pitches of the average of his other offerings, meaning he found the mix where basically all of his pitches are equally effective — the whole point of this entire exercise.

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Now, Irvin has drifted a bit away from equilibrium in 2025, using more of his curve (and less of his fastballs) despite them being more effective, so it’s worth keeping an eye on whether he continues to optimize his Nash Score. (Especially since his best-shaped pitch is actually his slider, which he almost never uses!)

Among the rest of the top 15, several other pitchers showed a knack for maximizing their stuff. Garrett Crochet — the nasty left-hander who broke out last year and was dealt from the Chicago White Sox to the Boston Red Sox — pairs an elite fastball with an even more dominant cutter (plus a bit of a sinker-slider), giving him one of the game’s best (and most equalized) pitch mixes.

Fellow Red Sox hurler Kutter Crawford follows the same template, with similarly effective four-seamers and cutters making the bulk of his repertoire. Others strike the balance differently: Jesus Luzardo and Freddy Peralta use more off-speed stuff, while Ryan Pepiot and Corbin Burnes rely on strong fastballs as their primary pitches — but only use them about half the time. And then there are guys such as Taj Bradley and Taijuan Walker, who lead with shaky main pitches, but throw them so infrequently that the rest of their pitches help equalize the overall mix.

It’s also no surprise to see Tarik Skubal, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, grace a list of hurlers who pick from their arsenals in the most efficient way. What everyone on the list has in common is a pitch selection largely in equilibrium, where effectiveness and usage are closely aligned.

Sewald, Poche among most optimized relievers

Most Optimized Relievers Over Past 3 Seasons

PitcherTeam(s)WARNash ScoreNo. 1 PitchNo. 2 PitchPaul SewaldARI, SEA, CLE1.20.014-Seam FB (58%), +0.05Slider (41%), -0.06Colin PocheTBR, WSN1.20.014-Seam FB (68%), +0.11Slider (32%), -0.11Tanner ScottMIA, SDP, LAD6.20.034-Seam FB (56%), -0.14Slider (44%), +0.15Joe JimenezATL2.50.034-Seam FB (51%), -0.06Slider (44%), -0.08Alexis DíazCIN1.60.034-Seam FB (56%), -0.18Slider (44%), +0.18Orion KerkeringPHI1.80.03Slider (56%), +0.064-Seam FB (28%), -0.26A.J. MinterATL, NYM20.084-Seam FB (46%), -0.02Cutter (39%), +0.30Elvis PegueroMIL1.10.08Slider (50%), +0.27Sinker (50%), -0.26Brad KellerKCR, BOS,
CHW, CHC0.60.094-Seam FB (39%), +0.07Slider (37%), +0.07Edwin DiazNYM1.60.14-Seam FB (52%), +0.31Slider (48%), -0.31Jeremiah EstradaCHC, SDP1.60.14-Seam FB (61%), -0.10Slider (20%), -0.36Kyle FinneganWSN20.124-Seam FB (68%), +0.31Splitter (28%), -0.10Luis GarciaSDP, BOS,
LAA, LAD00.12Sinker (45%), -0.32Slider (29%), -0.05Ryan WalkerSFG3.10.15Sinker (55%), +0.07Slider (44%), +0.01Craig KimbrelPHI, BAL, ATL0.80.154-Seam FB (66%), +0.26Kn. Curve (30%), -0.37

You’ll likely notice that the top relievers tend to be more optimized (with lower Nash Scores) than the top starters, which is probably an artifact of a few factors: First, relievers usually throw just a couple of pitch types, so it’s inherently easier to align usage with effectiveness when there’s less to balance. Second, those pitches are often thrown in short bursts at maximum intensity, which allows pitchers to rely more heavily on their strengths without diminishing returns. And finally, relievers don’t need to navigate a lineup multiple times, so they can lean on their best pitches more without the same concerns about stamina or predictability that starters face.

That said, some relievers do a better job of balancing than others. Though he has been nursing an injured shoulder since April, Cleveland’s Paul Sewald had been the best over the past few seasons — the two pitches he used 99.7% of the time, a four-seamer and a slider, were both within five hundredths of a run of each other in terms of effectiveness per 100 pitches. The batter knows one is likely coming… but they’re both equally tough to hit.

This was a very common theme among the top relievers, too: Each of the next four names on the list (Colin Poche, Tanner Scott, Joe Jimenez and Alexis Díaz), and eight of the top 11, used a version of that same pitch mix, with fastballs and sliders of near-equal effectiveness making up the vast majority of their pitches. Hey, if it works, it works.

But those who bucked the trend are also interesting. Philadelphia’s Orion Kerkering, for instance, flipped the tendency and relied mostly on a slider with the four-seamer as a change-of-pace pitch. Milwaukee’s Elvis Peguero was exactly 50-50 on sliders and sinkers (though both abandoned him earlier this season, and he has bounced between MLB and AAA), while Nats closer Kyle Finnegan introduces a splitter into the equation — and there’s longtime veteran closer Craig Kimbrel with his knuckle-curve (though it hurt his Nash Score).

Not all of these relievers have been lights-out, but many were, serving as great examples of how to stay effective even when hitters have a good guess at what’s coming.

How does Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly compare to other starters with their Nash scores? Brett Davis/Imagn Images

Blanco, Kelly among least optimized starters

Least Optimized Starters Over Past 3 Seasons

PitcherTeam(s)WARNash ScoreNo. 1 PitchNo. 2 PitchRonel BlancoHOU4.54.364-Seam FB (38%), -2.44Slider (32%), +2.40Merrill KellyARI6.83.94-Seam FB (25%), -1.52Changeup (23%), +2.96Joe RyanMIN6.43.514-Seam FB (53%), +2.17Splitter (21%), -0.97Michael WachaSDP, KCR8.72.68Changeup (31%), +2.484-Seam FB (27%), -0.29Dylan CeaseCHW, SDP7.72.43Slider (46%), +1.724-Seam FB (42%), -0.86Chris SaleBOS, ATL10.52.36Slider (43%), +1.794-Seam FB (40%), -1.54Michael KingNYY, SDP8.22.11Sinker (29%), +1.16Slider (25%), -1.53Cristopher SanchezPHI81.94Sinker (48%), -1.26Changeup (35%), +1.79Luis CastilloSEA71.894-Seam FB (46%), +1.59Slider (22%), -0.48Chris BassittTOR5.41.88Sinker (41%), +1.07Cutter (19%), +0.69Bailey OberMIN6.51.844-Seam FB (39%), +0.48Changeup (29%), +1.37Paul SkenesPIT8.71.824-Seam FB (37%), -0.83Slider (19%), -0.14Martin PerezTEX, PIT,
SDP, CHW2.21.62Sinker (37%), +1.27Changeup (24%), -0.90Gavin WilliamsCLE2.81.624-Seam FB (49%), -0.93Curveball (19%), -0.30Clarke SchmidtNYY4.11.57Cutter (36%), +0.32Slider (25%), +1.06

Now we get into some truly fascinating cases, where it’s important to remember that you can still be a great pitcher while still having a deeply strange, and seemingly suboptimal, mix of pitches.

There seem to be a few ways to land on this list: First, and most straightforwardly, you could have a far less effective No. 1 pitch than the rest of your arsenal, meaning you might stand to throw it less and the others more. Both of the top two above, Houston’s Ronel Blanco and Arizona’s Merrill Kelly, have primary four-seamers that are at least 1.5 runs worse per 100 pitches than their other options, and secondary off-speed pitches that are at least 2.4 runs better than the rest — classic cases where the Nash Score would suggest bringing them closer to balanced until the difference begins to flatten out.

Then there are cases such as Joe Ryan, Michael Wacha, Dylan Cease, Chris Sale and Michael King, in which their No. 1 option is clearly the best, but they throw other, much less effective pitches nearly as much, reducing the advantage of a dominant primary pitch. Spamming the top choice might lead to diminishing returns, but there’s room to give there before it starts being a suboptimal strategy.

And finally, we have the odd case of Paul Skenes — and Gavin Williams too, but Skenes is more fun to dissect — in which somehow the primary four-seamer is less effective than the other pitches, and so is the secondary breaking pitch, suggesting the need to dig deeper into the bag more often. But how can you argue that Skenes isn’t doing the most he can? He literally leads all pitchers in WAR. The thought he could optimize his stuff even more is terrifying.

Kahnle, Bender among least optimized relievers

Least Optimized Relievers Over Past 3 Seasons

PitcherTeam(s)WARNash ScoreNo. 1 PitchNo. 2 PitchTommy KahnleNYY, DET2.214.24Changeup (78%), +3.794-Seam FB (17%), -3.33Anthony BenderMIA1.411.09Slider (54%), +3.65Sinker (38%), -2.33Ryan ThompsonARI, TBR1.110.16Sinker (59%), +0.74Slider (32%), +0.39Brenan HanifeeDET0.79.55Sinker (63%), +3.13Slider (20%), -2.29Steven OkertMIA, MIN, HOU19.51Slider (58%), +3.254-Seam FB (35%), -2.16Ryan HelsleySTL4.29.124-Seam FB (48%), -2.83Slider (45%), +3.21David RobertsonMIA, NYM, TEX3.18.68Cutter (60%), +3.01Kn. Curve (26%), -2.62Justin LawrenceCOL, PIT0.38.45Sinker (54%), -2.97Slider (45%), +2.78Greg WeissertNYY, BOS1.28.4Sinker (32%), +1.53Slider (30%), -4.18Cade SmithCLE3.37.854-Seam FB (70%), +2.89Splitter (20%), -1.62Kenley JansenBOS, LAA2.37.17Cutter (82%), +2.71Slider (9%), -1.77Chad KuhlWSN, CHW-1.17.11Slider (45%), +3.28Sinker (27%), -2.39John BrebbiaSFG, ATL,
CHW, DET-0.57.07Slider (50%), -2.504-Seam FB (48%), +2.80Michael GroveLAD-0.46.49Slider (47%), +2.79Sinker (15%), +0.35Matt MooreCLE, LAA, MIA0.86.384-Seam FB (49%), +1.38Changeup (31%), -0.19

Finally, we get to the less optimal end of the reliever spectrum. And as stable as the opposite side was, with a bunch of guys using their boring fastball-slider combos to carefully record outs, this one contains more varied pitch mixes. Well-represented, for instance, is the phenomenon I found with R.A. Dickey the first time around — that despite his knuckleball being both his best pitch and the one he used most often, the Nash Score implied he should throw it even more because it was much more effective than the rest of his offerings.

While we don’t have any knucklers in the bunch this time, we do have guys such as Detroit Tigers setup man Tommy Kahnle, whose lead pitch is a changeup (not a fastball) so effective that it’s nearly four runs per 100 pitches better than the rest of his repertoire. Pitchers who work backwards like this must mix in fastballs to keep hitters honest — but at the same time, the fastballs are much less valuable that using them slightly less might be good even if it makes the change less effective. (Anthony Bender, Brenan Hanifee, Steven Okert, David Robertson, Greg Weissert and Cade Smith were in this category as well, among others.)

Just as odd were the cases of Ryan Helsley, Justin Lawrence and John Brebbia, whose primary pitches were far less effective than their secondary options, despite each essentially having only two pitches to work with. The numbers might be asking for those hierarchies to be flipped around.

And finally, there are guys such as Kenley Jansen, who spam one solid pitch — but they don’t have much else to work with, so any deviation worsens performance, even if the Nash Score still dings them for imbalance.

In the end, no metric — not even one rooted in Game Theory — can capture the full complexity of pitching. But Nash Scores do give us a window into something that’s often hard to pin down: How much a pitcher gets out of what they’re working with, and whether they’re winning the rock-paper-scissors aspect of the batter-pitcher showdown.

Some get the most out of average stuff through smarter allocation. Others leave value on the table despite electric arsenals. In either case, the path to better performance might be as simple (or difficult) as throwing the right pitch at the right moment just a little more often.

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June 21, 2025 0 comments