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Seasonality, Strategy (MSTR), Nvidia (NVDA) And Others Offer Mixed Signals
NFT Gaming

Seasonality, Strategy (MSTR), Nvidia (NVDA) And Others Offer Mixed Signals

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This is an analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

As we approach the final quarter of 2025, the following key charts provide valuable insights to help crypto traders navigate the evolving market landscape.

Bullish seasonality

Seasonal trends suggest a bullish Q4 outlook for both BTC$109,398.64 and ETH$4,010.26, the top two cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

Since 2013, BTC$109,398.64 has delivered an average return of 85% in the final quarter, according to data from Coinglass, making Q4 historically the strongest period for bulls.

Seasonality leans bullish for BTC and ETH. (Coinglass)

November stands out as the most bullish month, with an average gain of 46%, followed by October, which typically sees a 21% increase.

ETH$4,010.26 also tends to perform well in the last three months of the year, although its strongest historical returns have been in the first quarter since inception.

BTC’s 50-week SMA support

Bitcoin’s price has dropped by 5% this week, consistent with the bearish technical signals and looks set to extend losses to late August lows near $107,300. If bulls fail to defend that, the focus will shift to the 200-day simple moving average at $104,200.

The ongoing price decline, combined with bitcoin’s historical pattern of peaking approximately 16 to 18 months after a halving event, may scare bulls.

However, such concerns may be premature as long as prices remain above the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). This moving average has consistently acted as a support level, marking the end of corrective price pullbacks during the current bull run that began in early 2023.

BTC’s weekly chart in candlesticks format. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Traders, therefore, should closely watch the 50-week SMA, which is currently positioned around $98,900, as a key level for broader market direction.

XRP/BTC compression

XRP, often called the “U.S. government coin” by firms like Arca, has surged 32% this year. However, despite this strong rally, the payments-focused cryptocurrency remains confined within a prolonged sideways trading range against Bitcoin (XRP/BTC), showing limited relative strength.

The XRP/BTC pair has been confined within a narrow trading range since early 2021, resulting in over four years of low-volatility compression.

Prolonged range play in XRP/BTC. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Recent price action near the upper boundary of this channel suggests that bulls are gradually gaining control. A breakout from such a prolonged consolidation could trigger a powerful rally in XRP relative to BTC, as the accumulated energy from this squeeze is released.

Now, let’s turn to charts that call for caution.

Breakout in Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST)

The leveraged anti-Strategy ETF (SMST), which seeks to deliver daily investment results that are -200%, or minus 2x, the daily percentage change in bitcoin-holder Strategy’s (MSTR) share price, is flashing bullish signals.

The ETF’s price climbed to a five-month high of $35.65, forming what appears to be an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, characterized by a prominent trough (the head) flanked by two smaller, roughly equal troughs (the shoulders).

Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST). (TradingView/CoinDesk)

This pattern often signals a potential bullish reversal, suggesting the ETF may be gearing up for a significant upward move.

In other words, it’s flashing a bearish signal for both BTC and Strategy, which is the largest publicly listed BTC holder with a coin stash of 639,835 BTC.

Dollar Index’s double bottom

Last week, I discussed the dollar’s post-Fed rate cut resilience as a potential headwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The dollar index has since gained ground, establishing a double bottom at around 96.30. It’s a sign that bulls have successfully established the path of least resistance on the higher side.

Dollar Index. (DXY). (CoinDesk/TradingView)

A continued move beyond 100.26, the high of the interim recovery between the twin bottoms around 96.30, would confirm the so-called double bottom breakout, opening the door for a move to 104.00.

Watch out for the pattern failure below 96.00, as that could lead to increased risk-taking in financial markets.

NVDA topping?

Nvidia (NVDA), the world’s largest listed company by market value, and a bellwether for risk assets, continues to flirt with the upper end of the broadening channel identified by June 2024 and November 2024 highs and lows hit in August 2024 and April 2025.

NVDA’s bull run has stalled at key resistance. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The rally has stalled at the upper trendline since late July in a sign of bullish exhaustion. Should it decline from here, it could signal the onset of a risk-off period in global markets, including cryptocurrencies.



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An elderly sad woman in a wheelchair looks at a tablet and talks to her family via video call - stock photo
Gaming Gear

Steam’s new store look is out and is earning a mixed response: ‘Thanks Valve I am a grandma using Steam on a giant old touchscreen Samsung tablet’

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I’m beginning to think I have far-too-strong feelings about changes to Steam minutiae. Why? Because when I heard that Valve had finally unleashed its updated storefront from beta, I fired up the site so quickly you’d have thought it was giving out candy. No one should care this much about website UI updates. I do. This is my cross to bear.

Anyway, Steam’s storefront update is out of beta and the frontpage is a whole lot slicker now. Also, wider. Valve has merged the two constituent parts of its old UI—that big list of categories down the left-hand side and the blue bar up top—into a single easy-to-navigate bar.

As part of that merge, the Categories section now displays, well, actual categories. Before, when it was consigned to the sidebar, the Steam categories you could select consisted of things like “Top sellers,” and “New releases.”


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Now, hovering over the new Categories display section shows much more useful game genres, letting you easily browse by things like racing, stealth, and what-have-you. Also, the categories that appear are personalised for you, which is either very convenient or yet another intrusion by the dead hand of surveillance capitalism. Whichever you prefer.

I like the look of it, though I suspect the most stalwart PC gamers among you might recoil a little at how clearly mobile-friendly the new layout is. Indeed, some of the community response on Reddit has been a little mixed. “Thanks Valve I am a grandma using Steam on a giant old touchscreen Samsung tablet,” writes dogdillon, who may in fact be a grandma on a giant tablet but is more likely a sarky Steam user. “Yet another site update that gets worse on pc in favor of mobile. Bigger icons, less information, more clicks to navigate menus…” concurs hooliganmike.

It’s a brave new world. (Image credit: Valve)

Still, at least some people do like it. “Good lord, it’s actually so, so much better,” writes Xedronic, “and the categories tab is ACTUALLY COMPREHENSIBLE to look at!”

Me? I like it. Or at least, I disliked how it looked before enough that this feels like an improvement. Hey, take the wins where you can: at least Valve hasn’t installed a helpful AI chatbot prompt up there.



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A knight stands in the middle of an Oblivion symbol ablaze with fire.
Game Reviews

Oblivion Remastered Drops To Mixed Review Status On Steam

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When The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion got its fancy new remaster earlier this year, fans of Bethesda’s open-world RPGs, myself included, were elated at the return of this vintage classic.

Sadly, the enthusiasm wasn’t made to last. As seems befitting of its origins as a Bethesda-developed game, Oblivion Remastered is plagued by bugs and crashes on PC, especially following its 1.2 update which has ticked off enough players to see its Recent Reviews status on Steam sink to the dreaded pale orange “Mixed” designation. Recent reviews cite quizzical issues with performance across the board, crashes, unfair difficulty scaling, and frustration with Unreal Engine 5, a sentiment only becoming more and more common.

“I stopped counting the crashes,” reads one review taking aim at crashes encountered whenever trying to sleep or skip time in the game. “I really want to recommend this game,” starts another, “but I can’t due to technical issues and performance.” The same review cites the “few and far in between” patches the game has received, and the recent 1.2 update certainly hasn’t helped. “Started playing at launch with mods,” writes another reviewer, “and the game was perfectly fine to me. Came back this week and can’t for the life of me find out how to fix the “gpu crash dump triggered” crash.”

Frustration over performance is certainly one of the louder sentiments among Steam reviewers, especially with the remaster exhibiting the well-known stuttering issues seen in other Unreal Engine 5 games. But as another reviewer points out, not all the issues are unique to the new version. “Old 2006 Oblivion bugs have been faithfully ported over to the 2025 remaster,” they write. “I was shocked to find issues, look them up online for [a] workaround, and [saw] these were the exact same bugs from the 2006 game.”

Speaking for myself, the wildly inconsistent framerate and stuttering have definitely meant that I’ve spent considerably less time with the gorgeous remake of Bethesda’s 2006 open-world RPG than I was hoping to. Bummer!



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An image of Hornet from Silksong engulfed with rage.
Product Reviews

Hollow Knight: Silksong sinks to ‘Mixed’ Steam review status among Chinese gamers over its bafflingly bad translation, with Team Cherry promising to improve it

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As reported by Eurogamer, Hollow Knight: Silksong has not met Chinese players’ expectations the way it has globally, with a 42% positive “Mixed” review status from nearly 20,000 Chinese language users, who say that the game’s localization was abysmally, uniquely poor.

Team Cherry has already responded to the issue, promising to work on the Chinese localization. “We appreciate you letting us know about quality issues with the current Simplified Chinese translation of Hollow Knight: Silksong,” wrote the game’s publishing and marketing lead, Matthew Griffin. “We’ll be working to improve the translation over the coming weeks.”

To our Chinese speaking fans:We appreciate you letting us know about quality issues with the current Simplified Chinese translation of Hollow Knight: Silksong.We’ll be working to improve the translation over the coming weeks.Thanks for your feedback and support.September 5, 2025

The reception among Chinese speaking reviewers sharply contrasts with Silksong’s reviews in all other languages it’s available in, with an overall 80% “Very Positive” rating among over 80,000 reviews worldwide. Of about 16,000 negative reviews worldwide, 11,800 of them are in Simplified Chinese.


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Some commenters on Griffin’s post have tried to elaborate on the specific issues at hand. Tiger Tang, who led the Chinese localization of 2020 RPG Omori, wrote that the main issues in Silksong’s localization are creative, not grammatical. “The current Silksong CN translation reads like a Wuxia novel instead of conveying the game’s tone,” said Tang. “This isn’t about effort, but about taste and direction, and speaking from experience likely can’t be fixed without replacing the translator.”

Others in the comments noted the same bizarre, anachronistic quality Tang mentions, while it also reportedly devolves into total gibberish in places. Kotaku cited criticism from translation expert Loek van Kooten, who called Silksong’s Chinese dialogue the equivalent of “a high-school drama club’s Elizabethan improv night.” Silksong had two people credited for its Chinese localization, versus the first game’s team of six.

In a final twist, one of those two translators, Hertzz Liu, appears to have been leaking details about the much-anticipated Silksong on social media. A June comment on the r/Silksong subreddit by user Infinite-Lake-7523 includes a screenshot of a Q&A on the Chinese site Tieba from a user named “Hertzzz.” Infinite-Lake-7523 ironically thought this was a hoax, but said Herzz(zz) estimated a pre-Christmas release date and shared some of their plans for the localization.

Is it still a “review bomb” if people are understandably upset over a defective product? The current Chinese translation of Silksong sounds like that infamous “restoration” of Ecce Homo. With issues this extensive and structural, I would expect Team Cherry to commit to an entirely new Chinese localization, but that will likely take some time.






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Team Cherry working on "quality issues" with Hollow Knight: Silksong's Simplified Chinese translation, following mixed Steam reviews
Game Updates

Team Cherry working on “quality issues” with Hollow Knight: Silksong’s Simplified Chinese translation, following mixed Steam reviews

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Hollow Knight: Silksong developers Team Cherry are “working to improve” the game’s Simplified Chinese translation, following “quality issues” which have seen its Steam user reviews from those speaking the language drop to “mixed”.

As you can easily see thanks to Steam’s recent introduction of language-specific review splits, the mixed reviews are unique to the 6,382 people who’ve left verdicts in Simplified Chinese so far. For every other language, including Traditional Chinese, the impressions being left are either mostly or overwhelmingly positive, though it’s worth noting that a sizeable number are more shows of support for Team Cherry than proper reviews, being based on less than an hour’s playtime.

Team Cherry have clearly spotted this, with the studio’s marketing and publishing director Matthew ‘Leth’ Griffin having posted a message to Chinese-speaking Skongers. “We appreciate you letting us know about quality issues with the current Simplified Chinese translation of Hollow Knight: Silksong,” he tweeted. “We’ll be working to improve the translation over the coming weeks. Thanks for your feedback and support.”

Issues with this translation of metroidvania were flagged online as early as its recent Gamescom demo in late August, with one user describing it as “terrible” and adding “if there are no changes in the official version, I am afraid there is a risk of bad reviews”.

Image credit: Rock Paper Shotgun

Another user in that thread added: “If the demo’s text reflects what we’ll see in the final release, I must say the translation style in the demo differs greatly from the first game. Many lines feel unnatural, and some are even quite awkward or confusing in Chinese.”

According to our Guides Writer Jeremy, who’s half-Chinese and categorises his knowledge of the language as moderate with speaking fluency, the unnaturalness of the translation appears to stem from the use of classical grammar, a bit like an English translation which uses words like ‘thee’ and ‘thou’. Shakespearean Skong. Sounds like it could be a fun time, were you not just trying to lose yourself in a game you’ve waited ages for.

Wherefore art thou, Eric Barone cameo?

Here’s hoping Team Cherry’s planned translantion tweaks do let Chinese players enjoy jumping about as Hornet as much as many other Steam reviewers appear to be, without being subjected to bardly prose.



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ETH Nears $4,500 Amid Mixed Market Signals
Crypto Trends

ETH Nears $4,500 Amid Mixed Market Signals

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Key takeaways:

  • Ether rallied near $4,500 after sweeping liquidity around $4,200.

  • Spot demand fueled the rally, while futures participation stayed muted.

  • A daily close above $4,500 is critical to confirm breakout momentum.

Ether (ETH) rose 3.5% on Wednesday, approaching $4,500 after sweeping liquidity near $4,200 earlier on Monday. The move coincided with a bullish divergence between the price and the relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart, as well as a breakout above a two-week falling wedge formation. Both technical patterns typically point toward potential upside continuation.

Ether four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

For confirmation, ETH needs to secure a daily close above $4,500, a level that could open the path toward the external liquidity zone between $4,800 and $5,000. 

Market commentator Jelle also acknowledged the breakout, suggesting that “price discovery awaits” for the altcoin.

However, one analyst does not view the breakout as decisive just yet. Crypto trader Popeye noted that Ether remains within a broader range. In an X post, the trader said, 

“4H – this is a range until proven otherwise. We do have some confluence with Monday’s range and volume nodes. If price finds acceptance above that node, we probably have a legit breakout.”Ether analysis by Popeye. Source: X

Ether futures and spot activity split on momentum

ETH futures data shows a split between spot and derivatives flows. Ether futures open interest did not increase significantly during the rally, signaling limited appetite from leveraged traders. By contrast, aggregated spot volumes increased with price, while funding rates stayed close to neutral, in line with its 30-day average.

This combination suggests the move has been led by spot demand rather than futures leverage. Spot-driven rallies often indicate organic buying interest, but without futures participation, breakouts can lack durability if momentum weakens.

ETH/USDT one-hour chart on Binance. Source: Velo.data

Related: Ether rally to $5.5K possible due to illiquid supply and bullish ETH futures signal

Altcoin volume spike on Binance

Binance recorded more than $16 billion in spot altcoin trading volume on Monday, dwarfing activity on rival exchanges. The spike has been attributed to improved macro liquidity conditions and Binance-specific incentives.

The increase contributed to a broader market rally, with Bitcoin (BTC) crossing $112,000 within two days. However, Ether flows tell a different story. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that its net taker volume on Binance remains largely negative on Wednesday, continuing the August trend of signaling persistent sell-side pressure despite wider altcoin enthusiasm.

ETH net take volume on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

This divergence indicates that while traders are rotating into higher-beta altcoins, ETH might not be the primary beneficiary of speculative flows at the moment. 

Thus, the key technical level remains $4,500. A daily close above this threshold could confirm breakout momentum and extend gains, while failure to hold risks reaffirms the range-bound structure, possibly targeting range lows under $4,100.

Related: Price predictions 9/3: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, HYPE, SUI

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.



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