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Morning Minute: CME & Fanduel Bring Prediction Markets to the Masses

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Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

  • Crypto majors mixed, ETH and SOL lead; BTC back to $113k
  • BNB hits fresh ATH at $880 overnight before retracing
  • Kanye tweets out YZY coin, briefly runs to $3B before falling
  • CME announces partnership with Fanduel to launch events contracts
  • Heaven notches first $1M revenue day, burns another $1M of its LIGHT token

🎲 CME + FanDuel Bring Event Contracts to the Masses

Wall Street is meeting Main Street in the betting arena.

And the prediction market boom is about to begin…

📌 What Happened

The CME Group and FanDuel are teaming up to launch a new event contracts platform, making it easier for everyday users to bet on markets like the S&P 500, oil, gold, and even crypto.

The two will create a joint venture that will offer fully funded, event-based contracts as a part of the initiative.

These simple yes/no markets will let FanDuel’s millions of customers trade on major benchmarks and economic indicators for as little as $1.

Expected to go live later this year (pending CFTC review), the platform will cover:

  • Indices: S&P 500, Nasdaq-100
  • Commodities: oil, gas, gold
  • Crypto: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more
  • Macro data: GDP, CPI, and other key releases

The contracts will run through a new non-clearing futures commission merchant (FCM) jointly operated by CME and FanDuel, and listed on CME’s regulated exchanges.

🗣️ What They’re Saying

  • Terry Duffy, CME Group CEO: “Together, our event-based products will appeal to the growing public interest in markets, and we will provide education to attract a new generation of potential traders not active in derivatives today.”
  • Amy Howe, FanDuel CEO: “Partnering with CME Group will unlock our ability to bring even more new and engaging products to FanDuel’s fast-growing customer base… combining innovation with best-in-class regulatory compliance and consumer protections.”

CME & FanDuel partnering on event contracts…

I’m serious.

Basically you can wager as little as $1 on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, oil, gas, gold, crypto, & even GDP and CPI.

Yes, you’ll be able to place these bets via FanDuel.

Full gamification of markets.

What a time to be alive. pic.twitter.com/BMUgjgqWw4

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) August 20, 2025

🧠 Why It Matters

This is a huge moment for prediction markets and retail access:

  • Mainstream on-ramp: Millions of FanDuel bettors will soon have a direct line into regulated financial products, essentially turning prediction rading into a mass-market consumer activity
  • Legitimacy & compliance: With CME as the partner, these contracts have instant credibility and regulatory cover, something platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have struggled with
  • Bridging speculation & investing: By blending sports betting UX with financial markets, CME and FanDuel are creating a product that sits squarely between gambling and trading
  • Crypto crossover: Including Bitcoin and Ethereum in the initial product set cements crypto’s role as a tradable benchmark alongside equities, commodities, and macro data

Assuming this is approved, this could be the biggest step yet toward mass adoption of event-based markets in the U.S. seen to date.

There were questions (and rightfully so) if prediction markets would make it post-2024 election.

Volumes boomed into the most hotly debated election ever, but then (to the surprise of many), volumes sustained.

Prediction markets have sustained well post-election (data from https://dune.com/fergmolina/polymarket-markets-data)[/caption]

Thanks to new styles of pop culture markets, leaning more into news and geopolitics and of course sports betting markets, prediction markets have kept volumes at ~50%+ levels of peak 2024.

That’s a huge win.

And the more progress made in 2025-2026 will lead for an even bigger 2028 election cycle.

Let the prediction market boom begin…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

  • Crypto majors were mostly green on the day; BTC even at $113,300, ETH +3% at $4,285, XRP +1% at $2.90, SOL +3% at $184
  • OKB (+60%), MORPHO (+12%) and LINK (+6%) led top movers
  • BNB briefly broke to a new ATH of $880 last night
  • OKB popped another 60% to $206 after its massive token burn
  • A judge unfroze $57.6M in funds tied to the Libra meme coin case (tied to Argentina President Javier Milei) after signs of compliance
  • Xapo sees a $200B Bitcoin inflow coming from the wealth transfer from boomers to their children over the coming decade
  • Ark Invest backed Bullish and Robinhood, with Cathie Wood’s firm buying $21.2M of Bullish and $16.2M of Robinhood shares in their market debuts
  • The Winklevoss twins funded a pro-Trump crypto PAC to the tune of $21M (188 BTC as it looks to launch the Digital Freedom Fund aimed at blocking CBDCs and supporting crypto-friendly policy
  • The New York lawmaker’s push for 0.2% crypto tax will also include stablecoin transfers

In Corporate Treasuries

  • Empery Digital holds $450M in BTC but its market cap sits at just $340M, trading well below mNAV
  • Windtree Therapeutics, a BNB treasury company, has been removed from Nasdaq for listing compliance issues

In Memes

  • Memecoin leaders are red on the day; DOGE -3%, Shiba -3%, PEPE -4%, PENGU -8%, BONK -4%, TRUMP -3%, SPX -3%, and FARTCOIN -4%
  • Kanye West tweeted out a memecoin YZY which briefly ran to $3B FDV before falling back to $1B
  • Heaven reached $1M in daily revenue on Wednesday (75% of Pump’s revenue) while also unlocking a new “golden twap” to account for some missed revenue that hadn’t gone to LIGHT buybacks

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🤖 AI x Crypto

Section dedicated to headlines in the AI sector of crypto:

  • Overall market cap down 2% to $12.2B, leaders were mixed
  • FARTCOIN (+1%), VIRTUAL (+1%), TIBBIR (-3%), ai16z (-1%) & VVV (-17%)
  • fxn (+24%), Simmi (+22%) and IRIS (+15%) led top movers

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

  • ETH NFT leaders were mostly green; Punks -2% at 46.5 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 12.6, BAYC +2% at 11.6 ETH
  • Moonbirds (+15%) and Mooncats (+17%) were notable top movers
  • Bitcoin NFTs were mostly red or even; Bitcoin Puppets +6%
  • Abstract NFTs were mixed, led by BUUMEE (+20%)

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Morning Minute: Ghost Month Returns – Will Bitcoin Buck the Trend?

by admin



Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

  • Crypto majors are red again, down another 2%; BTC at $113,200
  • Wyoming introduces its stablecoin FRNT, first-ever from a public entity
  • Goldman Sachs says stablecoin market will hit trillions
  • Bullish holds $1B+ in stables after receiving them via IPO
  • Robinhood partners with Kalshi for NFL prediction markets

👻 Ghost Month Returns: Will Bitcoin Buck the Trend?

Ghost Month begins in 3 days.

And historically, that’s been bad news for Bitcoin.

📌 What Happened

The 7th lunar month, known as Ghost Month, kicks off this weekend (Aug 23 – Sep 20).

In many Asian cultures, it’s a time when spirits are believed to roam the earth – and when investors traditionally avoid making big financial moves.

This superstition has bled into markets, and the data backs it up:

  • Since 2015, Bitcoin has averaged a -12% return during Ghost Month.
  • Some of the worst selloffs came in 2017 (-39.8%) during China’s ICO ban, and in 2021 (-23%) following the mining crackdown.
  • Even in bull years, like 2019 and 2024, the pattern held: mid-month drawdowns of 12-19% before late recoveries.
  • On average, trading volumes dip in Asia, liquidity thins, and volatility spikes.

So far in 2025, Bitcoin has already slid about 10% from its $124K peak, with open interest dropping sharply. And notably, it’s sold off during the Korean open (~7 pm ET) every day this week.

📝 By The Numbers

Here’s a year-by-year breakdown of Bitcoin’s performance during Ghost Month since 2015.

Bitcoin has averaged -12% during Ghost Month over the past 10 years

Yeah – it’s not great.

🧠 Why It Matters

Of course, past performance is not representative of the future.

But… a 10-year sample size with similar outcomes seems telling.

The wildcard this year – Powell speaks at Jackson Hole just a day before Ghost Month kicks off.

If he signals rate cuts are coming in September, then this might be the best Ghost Month in Bitcoin’s history.

If he’s overly hawkish – there’s a good chance Ghost Month plays out.

That means choppy price action and more dips.

But there’s also a silver lining.

History suggests that while Ghost Month often delivers pain in the short term, it can also set the stage for powerful rebounds once sentiment clears (i.e. 2017 and 2021).

So these Ghost Month dips are for buying.

Now let’s just hope things don’t get too spooky…



🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

  • Crypto majors were red again on the day; BTC -2% at $113,200, ETH -3% at $4,175, XRP -5% at $2.87, SOL -2% at $179.
  • OKB (+2%) and PUMP (+2%) led top movers.
  • The State of Wyoming launched its Frontier Stable Token (FRNT), the first stablecoin ever issued by a U.S. public entity.
  • Anthony Scarmucci announced that SkyBridge Capital will tokenize two of its funds on AVAX.
  • Goldman Sachs stated that the market for stablecoins is in the trillions.
  • Air Canada’s Pension Fund disclosed a $161M BTC position.
  • Trump Jr.-backed crypto treasury firm Thumzup is acquiring Dogehash Technologies, aiming to merge into a large-scale Dogecoin‑Litecoin mining operation.
  • Bullish holds $1.15 B in stablecoins after receiving IPO funds via stables (instead of fiat) primarily in USDC on Solana and RLUSD on the XRP Ledger.
  • Robinhood listed SUI for trading.

In Corporate Treasuries

  • Sharplink acquired 143,593 ETH in the past week at an average of $4,648, now holding 741k in total.
  • David Bailey’s Nakamoto announced 5,744 BTC ($679M) purchased at an average price of $118,204.

In Memes

  • Memecoin leaders are red on the day; DOGE -3%, Shiba -3%, PEPE -4%, PENGU -8%, BONK -4%, TRUMP -3%, SPX -3%, and FARTCOIN -4%.
  • LIGHT dropped 12% to $100M market cap as revenue came in at just $200k on the day (2nd behind PUMP’s $1.2M).

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

🤖 AI x Crypto

Section dedicated to headlines in the AI sector of crypto:

  • Overall market cap down 1% to $12.5B, leaders were red.
  • FARTCOIN (-4%), VIRTUAL (-3%), TIBBIR (-3%), ai16z (-3%) & VVV (+1%).
  • MIRAI (+14%), Project89 (+13%) and Nuit (+10%) led top movers.

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

  • ETH NFT leaders were mostly green; Punks -3% at 47.4 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 12.44, BAYC +1% at 11.4 ETH.
  • Meebits (+10%) and Yumemono (+18%) were notable top movers.
  • Bitcoin NFTs were mostly red or even; OMB +5%.
  • Abstract NFTs were mostly red, led by BUUMEE (+56%).

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Crypto Trends

Morning Minute: Wall Street Loads Up on Bitcoin

by admin



Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

  • Crypto majors dip 3-6% overnight; BTC holds at $115,000
  • Gemini files to go public with ticker GEMI, timing TBD
  • BTCS becomes first TreasuryCo to issue a ‘Bividend’, offers blockchain dividend
  • Adam Back’s Bitcoin Standard TreasuryCo to launch with 30k BTC + $1.5B
  • LIGHT eco rallies over the weekend, latest launchpad challenger to Pump

🏦 Wall Street Loads Up on Bitcoin via ETFs

Some of the biggest players in the world are piling billions into BTC funds.

Yet the average professional fund manager is barely allocated. What gives?

📌 What Happened

Wall Street and global institutions dramatically increased their Bitcoin exposure in Q2, pouring billions into spot ETFs like BlackRock’s (IBIT) and related crypto equities.

SEC filings reveal that heavyweights like Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Harvard, Wells Fargo, Jane Street, and even Norway’s sovereign wealth fund all boosted their positions, signaling growing comfort with BTC as a core allocation.

Some of the most notable moves:

  • Brevan Howard nearly doubled its IBIT stake to 37.9M shares worth $2.6B, making it one of the largest institutional holders.
  • Goldman Sachs reported $3.3B across IBIT and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC), plus $489M in Ethereum’s ETHA trust.
  • Harvard disclosed a $1.9B stake in IBIT, while Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala continues to hold $681M.
  • Wells Fargo quadrupled IBIT holdings to $160M, alongside a small GBTC stake.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald pushed past $250M in IBIT while adding exposure to Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), and Robinhood (HOOD).
  • Trading giant Jane Street now owns $1.46B of IBIT, making it its largest position after Tesla.
  • Norway’s $2T sovereign wealth fund indirectly holds 7,161 BTC (~$841M) via equity stakes in MSTR, Coinbase, Block, and others – up 192% YoY.

Yet, the average professional fund manager in the US is barely allocated.

A survey from Bank of America showed that the average fund manager has just 0.3% allocated to crypto.

And a whopping 75% have 0 exposure.

🗣️ Why It Matters

It’s a tale of two groups.

Institutions are clearly piling into BTC and crypto right now, including the biggest names in finance, academia, and even nation-states.

The sheer scale of these positions ($2B+ for Brevan Howard, $3B+ for Goldman, $1.9B for Harvard) validates Bitcoin as an institutional-grade asset.

And it’s becoming clearer that spot ETFs are proving to be the gateway, offering clean, regulated exposure through familiar structures.

Yet, retail is sleeping, and their fund managers aren’t helping.

The fact that 75% of fund managers aren’t allocated at all is not surprising but is also staggering at the same time.

But the good news is – they are coming.

The more that the big names and institutions pile in, the “safer” it becomes for the average fund manager to recommend crypto as an investment.

It’s a lot easier to make safe, standard and consensus plays and collect fees than it is to go out on a limb and make contrarian, conviction calls.

Crypto won’t be contrarian much longer.

And the fund manager pivot is just a matter of time…



🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

  • Crypto majors were red on the day; BTC -3% at $115,100, ETH -6% at $4,260, XRP -5% at $2.97, SOL -7% at $181
  • XMR (+4%) led top movers
  • Odds of a September rate cut have fallen from 99% to 83% after recent inflation data
  • The ETH ETFs saw new outflows on Friday, after a massive 8-session green streak that resulted in $3.7B in net inflows
  • The Federal Reserve officially ended its “novel activities” program that increased bank scrutiny of crypto
  • SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced the agency is developing new custody regulations for digital assets to increase clarity and security in the U.S. crypto markets
  • A recent survey showed professional fund managers allocate just 0.3% to crypto on average, and 75% have 0 exposure
  • Gemini filed to go public via Nasdaq with ticker GEMI, timing still TBD
  • Grayscale filed for a Dogecoin ETF on Friday
  • New York Assemblymember Phil Steck proposed a 0.2% excise tax on crypto transactions, estimating $158 M in annual revenue from the program

In Corporate Treasuries

  • SBET stock plunged 15% to $19.85 on Friday following a Q2 net loss of $103 M; the firm attributed losses to a $87.8M non‑cash impairment and $16.4M in stock‑based compensation
  • Metaplanet bought another 775 BTC for $93M, now holds 18,888
  • Adam Back’s Bitcoin Standard TreasuryCo is preparing to go public in a merger with Cantor Equity Partners, aiming to launch with 30,000 BTC + $1.5B in capital
  • BTCS announced it will issue a one-time blockchain dividend, ‘Bividend,’ of $0.05 per share in ETH, the first of its kind

In Memes

  • Memecoin leaders are very red on the day; DOGE -5%, Shiba -5%, PEPE -5%, PENGU -6%, BONK -8%, TRUMP -2%, SPX -9%, and FARTCOIN -5%
  • FORK was a top onchain runner, jumping 25x to $4.3M; NEET +36% to $13M was a notable mover
  • LIGHT ran 4x to $160M over the weekend after the team spent over $1.4M buying back and burning its token thanks to its flywheel (now $126M)

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

  • Polymarket introduced a ‘Breaking News’ tab, showing the top moving markets over the past 24 hours
  • Pump.fun flipped Hyperliquid in revenue on Sunday, though it still lagged on the week and month (Hype re-flipped it over the past 24 hours)
  • Story Protocol founder Jason Zhao resigned over the weekend, 3.5 years after starting Story (and $130M+ in funding later)

🤖 AI x Crypto

Section dedicated to headlines in the AI sector of crypto:

  • Overall market cap down 3% to $12.9B, leaders were red
  • FARTCOIN (-6%), VIRTUAL (-3%), TIBBIR (-8%), ai16z (-5%) & VVV (+9%)
  • VIRGEN (+84%), AVB (+17%) and CLANKER (+15%) led top movers

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

  • ETH NFT leaders were red alongside the ETH selloff; Punks -1% at 49 ETH, Pudgy -3% at 12.8, BAYC -3% at 11.3 ETH
  • 0n1 Force (+29%) and Yumemono (+60%) were notable top movers
  • Bitcoin NFTs saw some green, led by Taproot Wizards (+4%) and Adderrels (+28%)
  • Abstract NFTs were mostly red, led by Pengztracted (+29%)
  • A Rektguy 1/1 sold for 10 ETH ($45,000)
  • Cerebro announced its mint details, launching on 8/21 with 6,969 NFTs for 0.08 ETH each

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Sony Reveals Last-Minute 40 Minute PlayStation Showcase
Game Reviews

Sony Reveals Last-Minute 40 Minute PlayStation Showcase

by admin



Image: Sony

Just when it seemed like Sony might be ditching the not-E3 festivities this year, it announced a new 40-minute State of Play will be airing tomorrow on June 4. The PlayStation showcase arrives in a packed week that includes the launch of the Switch 2, Summer Game Fest Live on Friday, and the Xbox summer showcase on Sunday. It feels like the gaming days of yore. Almost.

Nintendo Switch 2 Price Is Set at $450 for Now, But Could Go Higher

What can we expect from this new State of Play livestream? Sony was cagier than usual. “Watch live for news and updates on must-play games coming to PS5,” the PS Blog reads. “The show highlights a selection of great games from creators across the globe.” Normally the company calls out VR games as well, so maybe this means the show will be strictly focused on upcoming PlayStation 5 releases.

Despite Grand Theft Auto 6 being delayed until May 2026, it’s becoming a decently packed fall for Sony between first-party exclusives like Ghost of Yotei and Marathon and third-party blockbusters like Borderlands 4. Mafia: The Old Country and Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater also drop in August. Could there be a few more big fall releases that we haven’t officially heard about yet? Resident Evil 9 is already heavily rumored to be appearing at Geoff Keighley’s Summer Game Fest. Maybe it’ll get previewed first by Sony.

The rest of Sony’s first-party plans remain up in the air. Following the cancellation of a number of live-service projects, including games being worked on at Bend Studio and Bluepoint Games, as well as the recent apparent setback of FairGame$, it’s not clear what releases PlayStation Studios might have ready to go in the next 12 months. Insomniac’s Wolverine game was first revealed back in 2021 but lost its creative director just last year. Maybe we’ll see more of Housemarque’s Saros, a new sci-fi roguelite in the vein of Returnal. The State of Play will begin streaming on YouTube and Twitch starting at 5:00 p.m. ET.

.



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Elden Ring Nightreign gets a pre-day one patch to deliver some cheeky last minute build tweaking before your first steps in Limveld, and offer advice on some PC issues
Game Reviews

Elden Ring Nightreign gets a pre-day one patch to deliver some cheeky last minute build tweaking before your first steps in Limveld, and offer advice on some PC issues

by admin


Elden Ring Nightreign comes out tomorrow, May 30, meaning that your wait to sample a thing we thought was quite good is almost over. Before you hop into classic ER to fight one last Malenia battle for the road, it’s worth checking out the contents of the game’s first patch – Version 1.01 – which FromSoft has handily deployed about a day early.

You can check out the full notes for Version 1.01 if you like, but the gist is that it’s pretty much what you’d expect from a day one patch, aside maybe from some advice on how to troubleshoot a couple of techy teething issues you might run into on PC, depending on your exact hardware.

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“This update brings gameplay and stability improvements to ensure an optimal experience for your first steps in Limveld,” big Bandai Namco wrote, outlining that the patch includes “improved handling of playable characters”, balance adjustments, text tweaks, and added character scenarios. The soundtrack’s also been added to, so you should have plenty of bangin’ boss-battlin’ tunes, and there are the usual bug fixes.

You want more detail than that? Well, suck it up. These are Elden Ring patch notes, and you’re gonna have to read between the lines like you do with all that lore. Maybe if you’re lucky we’ll get a video in five years time explaining that this patch actually had a deeper meaning, over the course of five very good hours.

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That said, there are a couple of things related to knopwn issues on PC that FromSoft has chosen to explain in full. If you’re on that platform and find yourself unable to start the game or sometyhing similar, verifying the integrity of its files via its properties menu in your Steam library might help. Here’s the full instruction flow for that: Go to ‘Library’ > right-click on ‘ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN’ > select ‘Properties’ > select ‘Installed Files’ > and execute ‘Verify Integrity of Game Files’.

Meanwhile, FromSoft wrote: “We have confirmed that some PC configurations using the latest graphics cards may experience frame rate drops. We are currently investigating the cause. In the meantime, If you experience significant frame rate drops, you may be able to resolve it by setting the graphics settings from the default ‘High’ to ‘Medium’ or ‘Low’ and lowering the screen resolution, as well as installing the latest drivers for your graphics card.”

So, pretty standard stuff you’d try right out of the gate to see if it resolved teething problems while waiting for the studio ro deploy a full fix.

Once you’ve battered Malenia one more time, why not read our review of Nightreign, in which Connor outlines why he loved it, despite being “a strange beast”. If it helps your concentration to imagine him as the lead singer of Evanescence and the game as the dude yelling ‘Can’t wake up!’, then so bit.



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