Macro

October has been historically the most bullish month for Bitcoin, which earned the month the now-overused “Uptober” moniker within the cryptocurrency community.

The month does live up to its facetious name, given that it has managed to remain in the green for seven years in a row.

In 2023, Bitcoin surged by 28.5% in October. In 2021, the leading cryptocurrency soared by nearly 40%.

There were only two years when Bitcoin was in the red in October (2018 and 2014). Both times, the cryptocurrency was in the middle of rather brutal bear markets that followed the speculative bubbles of 2013 and 2017.

After a strong start, Bitcoin seems to be on track to extend the streak.

Macro picture

According to Polymarket bettors, there is a 94% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September meeting.

Market participants are overwhelmingly betting on a total of three rate cuts in 2025.

Fed rate cuts, which will make borrowing cheaper, are expected to further bolster risk assets.
At the same time, there is also a lot of uncertainty about the economic impact of the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S.

The U.S. stock market experienced a substantial correction during the longest shutdown to date that took place from Dec. 22, 2018, to Jan. 25, 2019. Back then, Bitcoin was in the late stage of a truly grueling bear market. However, the impact of this shutdown could be dramatically different, and the cryptocurrency is currently approaching a new record high.

Traders will have to keep a close eye on key data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics regarding employment and unemployment, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the GDP data.

Bitcoin/gold correlation

Gold has been consistently outperforming Bitcoin this year despite having a significantly bigger market capitalization. As reported by U.Today, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer previously predicted that gold could pass the baton to its digital rival in the second half of the year, but this has yet to happen.

While gold keeps smashing new record highs, Bitcoin’s price action remains stubbornly underwhelming as the cryptocurrency remains below its record peak.

As noted by analyst Chris Burniske, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has slipped back to a historically important support level.

This level could be a logical place for a future reversal if it actually manages to catch up with gold this year.

ETF bonanza

October is also on track to be a historic month for the cryptocurrency sector due to the sheer number of crypto ETFs that are expected to be approved this month.

Issuers will be awaiting the SEC’s decisions on a slew of altcoin ETFs designed to track such cryptocurrencies as Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and XRP.

However, the aforementioned government shutdown might delay their approval.

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In brief

Bitcoin briefly swelled to a 19-day high, driven by cooler U.S. inflation data that has increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
The crypto market’s bullish sentiment is also fueled by significant ETF inflows and a decline in selling pressure.
Experts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s future, with expectations of a “big surge” and new highs by the end of the year.

Bitcoin’s bullish start to the week extended on Thursday, hitting a 19-day high, with experts citing slightly cooler inflation data as a tailwind ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 17 rate cut decision.

The top crypto is up 1.5% in the past 24 hours, per CoinGecko data, extending Wednesday’s push that ended a two-week consolidation. Bitcoin is currently trading at $115,680 after climbing to just above $116,300 earlier in the trading session.

“I think this week’s price action has been driven by growing expectations that the U.S. Fed will cut interest rates in their next meeting after producer inflation data was lower than expected,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, told Decrypt.

The August 2025 U.S. Producer Price Index unexpectedly fell by 0.1%, compared to July’s massive spike that kicked off a market selling spree.

It marked the first decline for the PPI since April, with the data showing that it was driven by lower prices for unprocessed goods, such as crude petroleum, and easing service costs.

“Markets are up as the odds of a rate cut next week now seem all but certain,” Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, told Decrypt. “The Fed is set to turn the money printer on, especially in light of weak jobs growth across the U.S.”

CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 92.7% odds of a 25 basis point rate cut, while a half-point rate cut hovers around 7.3%.

“We’re probably going to have another big surge up toward the end of the year as the Fed begins its cutting cycle,” Michael Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, said in a CNBC interview on Thursday.

Looking to the future, Moreno is bullish, as the downward pressure on prices declines. On-chain data shows that selling pressure from profit-taking has been exhausted.

Dawson is also optimistic and expects Bitcoin to hit new highs in the coming weeks, driven by a surge in ETF inflows.

Although Bitcoin pushed to a 19-day high, key altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana hover around single-digit gains. Dogecoin and Hyperliquid, however, are up 25% and 23%, respectively, in the past 24 hours.

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