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BTC Treads Water, Gold Extends Gain as U.S. Jobs Data Looms: Crypto Daybook Americas
Crypto Trends

BTC Treads Water, Gold Extends Gain as U.S. Jobs Data Looms: Crypto Daybook Americas

by admin



By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$111,487.44 rose just 0.6% in the last 24 hours, while the wider market as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index added 0.4%. The gain is overshadowed by gold’s increase and a major government bond sell-off.

The precious metal broke through $3,500 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday, helping the tokenized gold market to top $2.5 billion in value as growing bets see the Federal Reserve cutting rates this month. Gold’s advance comes as investors are wary of swelling government debt, prompting a sell-off in long-dated government bonds.

The yield on Japan’s 30-year government bond rose to a record 3.28% following similar moves in the U.S. and U.K. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield neared 5%, while British gilts reached levels not seen since 1998, at 5.7%.

The turmoil hasn’t added fuel to the crypto market, whose price action remains muted. Deribit’s bitcoin volatility index (DVOL) is now at 38.1, its lowest level since late 2023, while capital is seemingly rotating into ether (ETH).

While spot bitcoin ETFs saw $751 million in net outflows last month, spot ether ETFs brought in a net $3.87 billion. That rotation is also being seen on-chain.

Meanwhile, a joint statement from the SEC and CFTC clarified rules for compliant spot crypto trading in the agencies’ latest effort to clear a way forward for crypto in the U.S.

The statement failed to jolt the crypto market, seemingly as investors await Friday’s U.S. jobs report. A soft reading could nudge the Federal Reserve closer to lowering rates, which would boost the market and other risk assets.

A hotter-than-expected figure, however, could damp sentiment. September has historically been a negative month for the sector, with bitcoin recording a drop of 3.29% on average for the month according to CoinGlass data. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Sept. 3: First day of regular-hours trading on Nasdaq for American Bitcoin (ABTC). The company, backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., was formed through a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining and listed after market close on Sept. 2.
    • Sept. 3, 10:15 a.m.: Tellor (TRB), a decentralized oracle network that operates as an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, will upgrade its mainnet to version 5.1.1. The upgrade improves network performance and node operation.
    • Sept. 4: Polygon will switch its mainnet token to POL from MATIC. Holders of MATIC on Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM or centralized exchanges may need to take action.
    • Sept. 10, 9:15 a.m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in Washington.
  • Macro
    • Sept. 3, 8 a.m.: Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July industrial production data.
      • Industrial Production MoM Est. -0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
      • Industrial Production YoY Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -1.3%
    • Sept. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 46.6
      • Services PMI Prev. 46.3
    • Sept. 3, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July labor market data (the JOLTS report).
      • Job Openings Est. 7.4M vs. Prev. 7.437M
      • Job Quits Prev. 3.142M
    • Sept. 4, 8:15 a.m.: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases August U.S. private-sector employment data.
      • Employment Change Est. 68K vs. Prev. 104K
    • Sept. 4, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Canada data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 48.7
      • Services PMI Prev. 49.3
    • Sept. 4, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) August U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.1
      • Services PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.7
    • Sept. 4, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases August U.S. services sector data.
      • Services PMI Est. Est. 51 vs. Prev. 50.1
    • Sept. 4, 1 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Institute of Statistics releases August inflation data.
      • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.53%
    • Sept. 4, 3 p.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases August producer price inflation data.
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • Sept. 9: GameStop (GME), post-market

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting on upgrading Arbitrum One and Nova to ArbOS 50 Dia, adding support for Ethereum’s Fusaka fork, new EIPs, bug fixes and a native mint/burn feature (for Orbit chains only). Voting ends Sept. 4.
    • Uniswap DAO is voting on deploying Uniswap v3 on Ronin with $1M in RON and $500K in UNI incentives to make it the chain’s primary decentralized exchange. Voting ends Sept. 6.
    • Lido DAO is voting on a proposal to migrate Nethermind’s ~7,000 Ethereum validators to infrastructure operated by Twinstake, a staking provider co-founded by Nethermind. Voting ends Sept. 8.
    • Sept. 2, 6 a.m.: Bybit and Centrifuge to host an ask me anything (AMA) session on X spaces.
    • Sept. 3: Stellar XLM$0.3649 to host vote on Protocol 23 mainnet upgrade.
    • Sept. 3, 10 am: Lido to host a Poolside Community Call.
    • Sept. 3, 10 a.m.: Zebec Network ZBCN$0.004202 to host spaces event on blockchain integrations.
    • Sept. 3, 12:30 p.m.: Aptos APT$4.3209 to host hangout on ecosystem updates.
    • Sept. 4, 10 a.m.: OlympusOHM$131.29 to host community call.
  • Unlocks
    • Sept. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $13.26 million.
    • Sept. 11: Aptos APT$4.3209 to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $48.18 million.
    • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $16.39 million.
    • Sept. 15: Sei SEI$0.2886 to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $16 million.
    • Sept. 16: Arbitrum ARB$0.5017 to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $47.15 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Sept. 3: Moonchain (MCH) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, Gate.io and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • Bitcoin BTC$111,487.44 dominance, a key metric when assessing whether the crypto market is in “altcoin season” has ticked down another notch to around 58%, having been above 61% just 30 days ago.
  • The drop-off demonstrates a change in trader behavior: Typically altcoins perform poorly when BTC enters a downtrend, this time, however, many have held their value while some have outperformed the market’s largest asset.
  • Bitcoin is down by 2.91% in the past 30 days while the likes of ether (ETH) and solana SOL$210.66 are up by 21% and 27.5%, respectively.
  • While the gains have been driven by the adoption of several altcoins in corporate treasuries, they can also be attributed to a recalibration of the entire market.
  • During BTC’s rise to a $124,000 record high last month, the narrative was solely focused on bitcoin and it’s perceived correlation with the well-performing tech sector in equities.
  • It’s worth noting that in previous cycles bitcoin dominance slumped all the way down to 39%, indicating that the altcoin resurgence still has some way to go.
  • However, as liquidity flowed into BTC, several altcoins fell to record lows against bitcoin, leading to a number being “oversold” on technical indicators like relative strength index (RSI).

Derivatives Positioning

  • The total open interest across all perpetual instruments increased overnight to $114 billion, data from Laevitas show.
  • A liquidations heatmap for the BTC-USDT pair on Binance shows that bitcoin is trading between two significant liquidation clusters. Above the current price, a $90 million cluster of liquidations sits around the $112,200 mark. To the downside, the largest cluster is valued at $76.6 million, located around $110,000.
  • According to Deribit options data, the 24-hour BTC put-call volume is 26.4K contracts, with calls accounting for 51.6% of the total. The contract with the highest volume is the $108K strike price put expiring Sept. 26.
  • That’s followed by the call at a strike price of $114K expiring on the same day.
  • The funding rate heatmap on Coinglass remains positive for most assets, indicating a general bullish sentiment. The one exception is TRX, which has a negative funding rate, reflecting a -10.2% APR.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.1% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $111,323.58 (24hrs: +0.92%)
  • ETH is up 0.82% at $4,348.94 (24hrs: -0.89%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.59% at 4,046.65(24hrs: +1.01%)
  • It’s worth noting that in previous cycles bitcoin dominance slumped all the way down to 39%, indicating that the altcoin resurgence still has some way to go.

Derivatives Positioning

  • DXY is down 0.15% at 98.25
  • Gold futures are up 0.36% at $3,605.20
  • Silver futures are unchanged at $41.62
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 0.88% at 41,938.89
  • Hang Seng closed down 0.6% at 25,343.43
  • FTSE is up 0.43% at 9,155.78
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.84% at 5,335.46
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.55% at 45,295.81
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.69% at 6,415.54
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.82% at 21,279.63
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% at 28,615.62
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.32% at 2,760.02
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.2 bps at 4.279%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.46% at 6,454.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.68% at 23,433.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,352.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.59% (+0.04%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0389 (0.01%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,001 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $54.39
  • Total fees: 4.97 BTC / $548,282
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 133,410 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 31.4 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 8.85%

Technical Analysis

  • PUMP has been one of the strongest tokens in recent days, backed by strong fundamentals such as its buyback program and the recently announced Project Ascend — a series of updates that focuses on growing the Pump.fun ecosystem and infrastructure.
  • After breaking the bearish trendline last week, PUMP has reclaimed the 20-day exponential moving average.
  • Bulls are looking for the token to continue this upward trend and flip the $0.004 level, which has proven to be a tough resistance point over the last month.
  • A successful breakout above this price would signal strong bullish momentum.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $303.56 (-0.32%), +0.74% at $305.80 in pre-market
  • Circle (CRCL): closed at $120.14 (-8.97%), +2.22% at $122.81
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.16 (+2.85%), +0.99% at $24.40
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $62.03 (+5.08%), -0.55% at $61.69
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.06 (+0.5%), +0.31% at $16.11
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.09 (+2.4%), +0.5% at $14.16
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14 (-2.44%), unchanged in pre-market
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.64 (+1.8%), +0.1% at $9.65
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $31.64 (+3.33%), +2.84% at $32.54
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.79 (-1.71%), -1.21% at $24.49

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $341.62 (+2.16%), +0.66% at $343.88
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.37 (-0.91%)
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.98 (-4.71%), +0.94% at $17.14
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.89 (-4.7%), +3.48% at $7.13
  • Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $4.85 (-0.21%), +1.44% at $4.92

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $332.8 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.55 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$135.3 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $13.4 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.56 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

  • While BTC futures volumes on the CME exchange fell 17% to $148 billion in August, the ETH futures volume surged by 48% to $123 billion, an all-time high.
  • The trading volume of SOL futures and XRP futures also surged to records, rising 41% and 51% to $8.60 billion and $7.32 billion, respectively.
  • The figures highlight the heightened institutional interest in altcoins in recent weeks.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether



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SOL Futures Are More Popular Than Ever as U.S. Inflation Report Looms
GameFi Guides

SOL Futures Are More Popular Than Ever as U.S. Inflation Report Looms

by admin



The crypto market is down today, signaling risk aversion ahead of the U.S. core PCE inflation data release, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s path on interest-rate cuts.

The CoinDesk 20 Index, a measure of the broad market, has dropped 3.6% in the past 24 hours, with all but one member lower over that period.

According to analysts at Bitunix , a hotter-than-expected figure could prompt the Fed to adopt a one-and-done stance following the expected rate cut at the September meeting.

“For BTC, watch whether $114.5K flips into support, or if a retest of $107.6K support confirms market resilience,” the exchange told CoinDesk in an email.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Open interest (OI) in futures tied to the top 20 coins, excluding SOL, has decreased in the past 24 hours, indicating broad-based capital outflows.
  • SOL’s open interest, however, hit a record high 63.84 million, alongside a rally in the token’s price to $217, a level last seen in February.
  • The eight-hour funding rates for ether, tron and BNB flipped slightly negative, indicating a bias for bearish bets on a drop in prices. Funding rates for other major tokens were steady at around zero, indicating neutral sentiment.
  • OI in the CME bitcoin futures slipped to 135.72K BTC, the lowest since April, while ether OI remained elevated at record highs near 2.10 million ETH. The divergence suggests a continued preference among investors for ETH over BTC.
  • On Deribit, downside bias in BTC options has strengthened across all tenors, with puts trading at a five volatility premium to calls at the front end. ETH options display similar dynamics, marking a shift from bullish positioning early this week.
  • On Paradigm, block flows featured call selling and put rolling strategies in BTC and ETH. Market maker Wintermute pointed to demand for call spreads in the December expiry BTC options.

Token Talk

  • Solana (SOL) posted a 44% drop in second-quarter application revenue, sliding to to $576.4 million from $1 billion in the first quarter even as its DeFi sector expanded, according to Messari.
  • The downturn reflects weaker profitability across key decentralized apps. Pump.fun (PUMP) still led with $156.9 million, but was still down 44% as memecoin frenzy cooled.
  • Axiom was the outlier, surging 641% to $126.6 million, showing how fast protocol-specific growth can offset broader ecosystem weakness. Jupiter JUP$0.5055 earned $66.4 million (–16%), while Phantom and Photon were hit hardest with declines of 65% and 72%, respectively.
  • Despite revenue losses, DeFi TVL on Solana climbed 30% to $8.6 billion in the quarter and has since crossed $11 billion, cementing the chain as the largest DeFi network behind Ethereum.
  • Kamino Finance drove TVL growth, up 34% to $2.1 billion after introducing Kamino Lend V2, which attracted $200 million in deposits and $80 million in loans within three weeks. Kamino now controls 25% of Solana’s market share.
  • Raydium staged a strong comeback, rising 54% to $1.8 billion in TVL, reclaiming second place from Jupiter. It now commands 21% share versus Jupiter’s 19%.
  • Trading activity, however, told a different story: Average daily spot DEX volume fell 45% to $2.5 billion, reflecting a fading of the memecoin momentum that had fueled the previous quarter’s records.



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5 cryptos that could soar as US inflation cools and rate cut looms
GameFi Guides

5 cryptos that could soar as US inflation cools and rate cut looms

by admin



Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Cooling U.S. inflation lifts Fed rate cut hopes to 90%, setting the stage for a potential crypto market resurgence.

Summary

  • With Fed cuts looming, LILPEPE and top altcoins set the stage for the next crypto cycle.
  • LILPEPE has already raised $20m in presale, is audited by Certik, and built for meme-driven growth.
  • Cooling inflation and Fed cut bets put LILPEPE, ADA, AVAX, OKB, and Ethena in focus.

A powerful convergence of macroeconomic relief and crypto sector resilience is unfolding. U.S. inflation has cooled meaningfully, with the July CPI printing 2.7% — below expectations of 2.8%, and steady from June. 

Core inflation, while higher at 3.1%, hasn’t raised warning flags. That has sent markets into a flurry of optimism: the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now priced at over 90% across several indicators. In such a climate, risk assets — especially cryptocurrencies — are poised for a dramatic resurgence.

Let’s examine five crypto assets uniquely positioned to thrive if the Fed delivers on a September rate cut — unlocking new gains for long-term players.

Little Pepe: A memecoin built for the new era

Emerging from the bustling memecoin scene is Little Pepe (LILPEPE), now in presale Stage 11 at $0.0020. The buzz is real: over $20 million raised and more than 13.1 billion tokens sold across all stages, alongside a fresh Certik audit completed just today. 

LILPEPE isn’t just another frog — it’s a Layer-2 powerhouse with snipping-bot protections, zero taxes, and blazing transaction speeds on Ethereum. In a dovish-rate environment, investors are drawn to speculative, high-reward plays. 

LILPEPE’s impressive presale traction and savvy structure position it for explosive recognition. No legacy whales, just meme-energy and well-engineered fundamentals ready to ignite.

Cardano: Understated power with catalysts on the horizon

Cardano has quietly held court as a robust alternative to Ethereum. While its ADA price has inched upward, investor sentiment often overlooks the project’s institutional-grade foundations and ongoing ecosystem expansion. With U.S. inflation at a more palatable 2.7%, projects linked to long-term innovation suddenly look more attractive.

Cardano’s strength lies in methodical governance and peer-reviewed protocol enhancements. As traditional markets look beyond speculative bull runs, ADA offers compelling upside. Those who recognize this methodical buildup stand poised to reap rewards as capital rotates into substantive blockchain infrastructure poised for wider adoption.

Avalanche: Scalability meets market readiness

Avalanche commands attention as a Layer-1 chaining bridging speed and modularity. On-chain TVL data indicates a stable baseline around $1 billion — a foundation ready for lift-off. With macro headwinds dialing down, AVAX could be the prime beneficiary of both speculative inflows and renewed developer activity.

Its harmony with Ethereum (frequent correlation during BTC-driven rallies) and its multi-chain ecosystem set it apart. Institutional flows are already edging in, signaling interest beyond retail buzz alone. In a calming inflation environment, Avalanche’s efficiency and growth potential frame it as a liquidity magnet.

OKB: Exchange tokens riding the market comeback

OKB, the native token of OKX’s exchange ecosystem, offers an underrated play in this landscape. Exchange tokens tend to outperform as trade velocity accelerates — something we expect if liquidity returns to markets after the rate cut. While OKB hasn’t dominated headlines, exchange tokens often move swiftly when sentiment shifts.

Lower interest rates fuel retail and institutional inflows alike, activating DEX and CEX activity. OKB stands to benefit directly, with improved adoption of token-discount programs, utility features, and trading volume expansion. In that scenario, OKB’s undervalued status could resolve quickly, rewarding early believers.

Ethena: The yield-generating dynamo

Ethena Labs, behind the synthetic dollar token USDe, is an institutional standout. It generated $290 million in protocol revenue by early July — trailing only Tether, Circle, and Sky among stablecoin issuers, and achieving the milestone faster than most. 

Its delta-neutral strategy converts funding-rate spreads into earnings for sUSDe stakers.

As rate cuts loom, demand for yield-rich digital instruments surges. Ethena sits at the intersection of DeFi innovation and fundamental stability. Its revenue engine and growing institutional interest make it a convertible asset in this environment — primed to capture yield-seeking capital that floods back into crypto.

Why this moment is distinct

We are at a macro inflection point. U.S. inflation is holding above the Fed’s 2% target, yet key data suggests a softening trend. June job data was revised downward, and the CPI reading, combined with weak labor figures, has strengthened the case for easing. Futures markets now reflect high conviction in a September rate cut, possibly followed by additional cuts before year-end. 

Historically, rate reductions boost risk assets. Crypto, with its volatility and growth potential, is often the fastest beneficiary. Investors are shifting asset allocations, skewing portfolios toward tech and digital assets. That makes this moment a staging ground for outsized returns — especially for assets primed for attention and capital.

Final thoughts: Timing, rewards, and balanced bullishness

The combination of cooling inflation and high odds of a September Fed rate cut sets the stage for crypto. Whether someone is seeking breakout darlings or stable growth engines, these five cryptocurrencies each offer distinct angles on what comes next. LILPEPE captures the velocity of meme culture with infrastructure solidity. Cardano delivers a pragmatic alternative to DeFi giants. Avalanche balances scalability with on-chain readiness. OKB rides exchange activity. Ethena brings yield to risk-on markets. As investors calibrate their next moves, this slate offers both momentum plays and foundational holds. The coming months may define this cycle’s winners and narrative leaders — and these tokens are all anchored in timing and potential.

To learn more about Little Pepe, visit the website, Telegram, and X.

Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.



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Volatility crashing across asset classes (TradingView)
GameFi Guides

Volatility Meltdown Everywhere as Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Looms

by admin



A pervasive calm has taken hold of asset classes as traders look forward to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for Aug. 21-23.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex’s BVIV and Deribit’s DVOL index, has declined sharply in recent months, hovering near two-year lows of around 36% last week, according to TradingView data.

Similarly, the CME Gold Volatility Index (GVZ), which estimates the expected 30-day volatility of returns for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), has more than halved over the past four months, dropping to 15.22%—its lowest level since January.

The MOVE index, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility of Treasury notes, has also declined in recent months, reaching a 3.5-year low of 76%.

Meanwhile, the VIX, widely regarded as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” fell below 14% last week, down substantially from its early April highs near 45%. A similar vol compression is seen in FX majors such as the EUR/USD.

Rates are ‘still high’

The pronounced slide in volatility across major assets comes as central banks, particularly the Fed, are expected to deliver rate cuts from restrictive territory, rather than amid a crisis.

“Most major economies are not easing from ultra-low or emergency levels like we saw after the financial crisis or during COVID. They’re cutting from restrictive territory, meaning rates are still high enough to slow growth, and in many cases, real rates, adjusted for inflation, are still positive. That’s a big shift from the last easing cycles, and it changes how the next phase plays out,” pseudonymous observer Endgame Macro noted on X, explaining the bull run in all assets, including cryptocurrencies and stock markets.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, resuming the easing cycle after an eight-month pause. Investment banking giant JPMorgan expects the benchmark borrowing cost to drop to 3.25%-3.5% by the end of the first quarter of 2026, a 100-basis-point decrease from the current 4.25%.

Per some observers, Powell could lay the groundwork for fresh easing during this Jackson Hole speech.

“The path to rate cuts may be uneven, as we have seen over the last two years, where markets have been eager for rate cuts and sometimes disappointed that the Fed has not delivered them. But we believe the direction of travel for rates is likely to remain lower,” Angelo Kourkafas, a senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones, said in a blog post on Friday.

“With inflation treading water and labour-market strains becoming more pronounced, the balance of risks may soon tip toward action. Chair Powell’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole could validate the now-high expectations that, after a seven-month pause, rate cuts will resume in September,” Jones added.

In other words, the decline in volatility across asset classes likely reflects expectations for easy monetary policy and economic stability.

Markets too complacent?

However, contrarians may view it as a sign that markets are too complacent, as President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs threaten to weigh on economic growth, and the latest data points to sticky inflation.

Just take a look at the price levels for most assets, including BTC and gold: They are all at record highs.

Prosper Trading Academy’s Scott Bauer argued last week during an interview with Schwab Network that volatility is too low following the recent round of economic data, with more uncertainty on the horizon.

The argument for market complacency gains credence when viewed against the backdrop of bond markets, where corporate bond spreads hit their lowest since 2007. That prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs to warn clients against complacency and take hedges.

“There are enough sources of downside risks to warrant keeping some hedges on in portfolios,” Goldman strategists led by Lotfi Karoui wrote in a note dated July 31, according to Bloomberg.

“Growth could surprise further to the downside,” dis-inflationary pressures could fade or renewed concerns over Fed independence may fuel a sharp selloff in long-dated yields.

In any case, volatility is mean-reverting, meaning periods of low volatility typically set the stage for a return to more turbulent conditions.



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