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Hole

A bearded Sam Fisher loads a silenced pistol.
Gaming Gear

The new Splinter Cell: Deathwatch trailer is action-packed, but there’s a Michael Ironside-shaped hole

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A trailer dropped today for Netflix’s animated Splinter Cell show, and it’s all guns and glory. Bloody fistfights, car chases, a diving tackle through a window—all to unravel a mystery that hits awful close to home for our grizzled protagonist. “Sam Fisher is back and this time, the mission is personal.” Again!

It hits all the narrative and aesthetic beats I expect out of a modern spy thriller, and through that lens, I think it looks pretty neat. There’s a mysterious wristwatch with coveted blueprints inside it somehow and yes, they plug it into a giant wall of green monitors, and yes, I eat that kind of thing up. But short of a few referential nods, I think the trailer is sadly a little light on Splinter Cell vibes specifically.

Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell: Deathwatch | Official Trailer | Netflix – YouTube

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It’s a lot of action and energy for largely methodical, unhurried stealth games. My favorite moments in Splinter Cell never involved big fist fights or car chases, they involved silently panicking as guards circled me hiding in the one safe shadow in a patrol-filled room. Guns and brawls were a sign things had gone wrong, and I was most elated when the only enemies that ever saw me ended up unconscious in a crate somewhere.


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Okay, maybe that wouldn’t make great TV. But our main character feels a little off, too, given that he’s not played by Michael Ironside. In Chaos Theory, for example, Sam Fisher isn’t so much a gruff action-man badass as he is a wry cynic. Sure, he beats the daylights out of people and dismantles international terrorism plots or whatever, but most of his dialog is blasé piss-taking and smug quips. Ironside’s performance had a venerable, benign sensibility to it; Liev Schreiber’s performance sounds good, but it also sounds a lot more like the archetypal movie spy.

Granted, that probably works for a much older, scruffier Sam Fisher. But I find myself a lot more interested in new agent Zinnia McKenna, played by Kirby Howell-Baptiste, who we have much more to learn about (and doesn’t have to live up to a 20-year history of being conventionally cool). I’m not convinced by this trailer the show will have much new to say about Sam Fisher, so hopefully there are some newer ideas and characters in the mix that can make a fun watch of Deathwatch.

Deathwatch will be available to stream on Netflix on October 14, 2025.



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There’s an old MST3K-style video series about a bonkers collection of Flash games I keep going back to, so I invite you to join me down the rabbit hole
Game Reviews

There’s an old MST3K-style video series about a bonkers collection of Flash games I keep going back to, so I invite you to join me down the rabbit hole

by admin


Screenshot by Destructoid via Retsupurae/ZapDramatic. Remix by Destructoid

“The psychological assessment test, you moron.”

|

Published: Sep 14, 2025 02:59 pm

Do you remember Adobe Flash? Or does it make me old, even asking the question? Well, in the pre-Unity, pre-Steam, pre-indie era of online entertainment, this humble software platform was the primary source of browser-based gaming fun, serving as the precursor to the vibrant solo dev efforts of today. Creators of crappy (and occasionally awesome) Flash games in the early aughties crawled so we could run.

The vomit-green Skittles of gaming

I am aware this already opened a can of Pandora’s worms – excuse the mixed metaphor, my writing is fueled by an excessive dosage of caffeine today – when it comes to millennial nostalgia, and you can bet your bottom dollar that we will eventually revisit this graveyard of gaming history from the perspective of our favorite pastimes, too.

On this occasion, I’d like to direct your attention to a secondary form of experiencing Flash game non-classics: by watching someone else play them, of course. Or, rather, watching the OG legends of the early Let’s Play era—slowbeef and Diabetus of Retsupurae fame, an MST3K-style comedy riff show that tackled terrible games and terrible playthroughs of games in equal measure alongside a whole bunch of other things, which was a decade-long YouTube experiment spanning from February 2008 to March 2018. It’s a time capsule in many ways, and one well worth checking out in detail if you enjoy old-school snarky web content.

For today, they will serve as the best possible tour guides into the strangest Canadian I have ever heard of: Michael Gibson, aka ZapDramatic, who created a series of interactive story games from Newgrounds that aim to help you navigate the labyrinth of disturbed people’s psyches.

They look like this:

Cosmic horror. Screenshot by Destructoid via Retsupurae/ZapDramatic

And they behave like this:

A terrifying amalgamation of scary and silly. Screenshot by Destructoid via Retsupurae/ZapDramatic

Truly, a picture is worth a thousand words.

The product of an incomprehensible mind

Every few years, I find myself drawn back to the Retsupurae crew’s playthrough of Michael Gibson’s intellectual output, like a hapless character in a Lovecraft story stumbling back to a long-buried copy of a skin-bound Necronomicon. It all starts out with a healthy dose of WTF and gets more nonsensical from there, played entirely straight and taken wholly seriously by Mr. ZapDramatic all along.

We progress from standalone scenarios to a longform multi-game series called Ambition that begins with a husband strapping a few dozen sticks of dynamite to his torso in a bid to reclaim his kids—this is episode one—followed by encounters with a hitchhiker, infidelity issues, psychiatric evaluations, a murder, a police investigation, conspiracies, marriage counseling (no, I didn’t get the order wrong), a trial, a ghost, a terrorist, I can’t take it anymore—it’s calling again—help—

There’s so much more, made even more amusing by the whiplash-inducing tonal shifts from scene to scene and series to series. While playing through the games would no doubt be like pulling teeth, having appropriately snarky tour guides for this car crash, and an excellent longplayer in the form of PinstripeHourglass, makes for a legendary bit of classic gaming YouTube content. If you’ve got a few hours that you’d like to spend getting repeatedly baffled, I can’t think of a better way for you to do so.

There’s an inevitable point in composing fiction where the content begins to bend. Either under the weight of its conflicts with reality, or the pressure points created by all the elements you previously established, characters and events in a longer story inevitably collapse if they are haphazardly piled on top of each other without rhyme or reason.

But sometimes, an incredibly bad writer can find a way past the singularity and the event horizon, and keep going further to an impossible other side, where it’s fine that nothing makes sense anymore because you are completely disarmed by their oblivious confidence, and you can’t wait to see what is the next bit of nonsense they have managed to come up with. Truly, the only thing I can compare it to is Tiger King. Except this is about a series of video games, so it is a much better fit for us.

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Three men and a chimp dig a hole in the ground.
Gaming Gear

Inevitably, someone has made a cooperative take on A Game About Digging a Hole, where you play as burly shirtless men whose hands swell up when they flip each other off

by admin



As someone who grew up when true cooperative games were vanishingly rare, the sheer number of games that allow you to play with pals at your side these days is astonishing. Every other game seems to support larking around for up to four people. And in the increasingly unlikely event that a game doesn’t have co-op to begin with, chances are someone will make a version of it that does.

Such is the case with Keep Digging, which lifts the premise of DoubleBee’s surprise hit A Game About Digging A Hole, er, wholesale, opens up its shovelling shenanigans for up to eight players, then rests its hard hat over its eyes for a wee nap while the cash rolls in.

Like DoubleBee’s burrowing sim, Keep Digging sees players break ground using basic tools like spades and pickaxes, which they use to unearth valuable ores and treasures. These can be sold to purchase more advanced equipment like dynamite, wire rope, and batteries. I presume the latter are used to power some other excavation device, but the Steam page just reads “batteries” so it isn’t clear. Anyway, your descent also takes you through various biomes, such as an abandoned mine filled with dinosaur fossils, a ruined temple, and some kind of subterranean cathedral.


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Keep Digging Gameplay Trailer – YouTube

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Aside from the co-op functionality, Keep Digging has a few other ideas of its own. While the game sees you play as burly white blokes by default, you can adjust their body shape, customise their appearance with various apparel (including shirts!). The Steam page also shows a clip of a chimpanzee getting in on the action, although it isn’t clear if this is an alternative character model or an AI NPC.

Yes, Keep Digging supports NPC companions for when human players aren’t around, Moreover, those AI miners will “continue mining autonomously when players are offline”, just in case you can’t be bothered to play the game yourself. Oh, and it has an emote for flipping other players off. This causes your character’s hand to swell up to twice its normal size, which A) seems like something a doctor should know about and B) is a feature every other game should have.

Like many of these co-op experiences (and arguably A Game About Digging A Hole too), Keep Digging does not appear to have much nutritional value. Then again, it’s also dirt cheap, selling at $5 (£4.29) RRP and currently running a 10% launch discount. So if you want to dig a massive hole with your mates, but don’t want to ruin the lawn, Keep Digging is the game for you. At least until another cooperative digging sim tunnels into Steam, which at the current rate of iteration will probably be next week.



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Highest Since Just After Powell's August Jackson Hole Speech
GameFi Guides

Highest Since Just After Powell’s August Jackson Hole Speech

by admin



The big upside action in major cryptos of late has been in altcoins such as solana SOL$243.43 and dogecoin DOGE$0.2749, with SOL sporting a 17% gain over the past seven days and DOGE a 25% advance. Among the bullish arguments are coming ETFs and newly-formed crypto treasury companies focusing on those two tokens.

Mostly forgotten as investor capital moved elsewhere were the two largest cryptos, but both are catching bids late in the U.S. trading day on Friday.

Bitcoin BTC$116,049.69 is now ahead 2% over the past two hours to $116,600 and ether (ETH) is up 5% to $4,650. Both prices are the highest since the wild action in the third week in August that followed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

In that speech, Powell unexpectedly flipped from staunch monetary policy hawk to dove, saying the weakening labor market deserved more attention than the stubbornly high inflation rate.

Interest rate traders reacted quickly, sending odds of a September rate cut from somewhat possible to a sure thing, with only the size — 25 basis points or 50 — left for debate.

In the hours following Powell, bitcoin flew from about $112,000 to more than $117,000 but that paled in comparison to the action in ether.

Below $4,300 ahead of the speech, ETH soared more than 16% in less than 48 hours, nearly cracking $5,000 for the first time ever.

Within hours after that, though, the bull move fell apart, and more, with ETH sliding all the way to about its pre-speech price and bitcoin tumbling all the way down to $107,000 by the end of August.

Next week finally brings the much talked about Fed meeting, and traders universally expect the U.S. central bank to trim its benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%-$4.25%.



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Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: market impacts explained
NFT Gaming

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech: market impacts explained

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On Aug. 22, 2025, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech on monetary policy and the Fed’s framework. Investor and host of the Wolf of All Streets podcast, Scott Melker, called it “a significant turning point for all markets.” Why so, and what are the deep cuts from this speech noted by market experts?

Summary

  • In the Jackson Hole speech, the Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted at possible rate cuts in September.
  • According to Powell, foreign trade policy and a crackdown on illegal immigrants slow down the markets and cement uncertainty.
  • Despite the pressure from fellow Republicans and President Trump, Powell insists that the decisions of the FOMC won’t be affected by anything except the data. 

Takeaways from the speech and the market reaction

Powell gave this speech during the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at an economic symposium. In the beginning, he reminded attendants about the Fed’s dual mandate to keep inflation rates and unemployment levels low. He suggested that the employment rate is maximum, while inflation is “still somewhat elevated.”

The Fed chair outlined the challenges the U.S. economy faced in 2025:

  • International trade policy (as it brings uncertainty about the final tariff levels).
  • Tighter immigration policy is abruptly slowing down labor force growth.

Powell suggested that changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies may have important yet hardly predictable implications. 

As for the labor market, he emphasized that a drop in both supply and demand for workers has downside risks that may materialize in massive layoffs.

Speaking about inflation, Powell noted that some categories of goods have already gotten more expensive. The Fed is expecting that within several months, tariff effects will accumulate and that determining monetary policy will be easier. Powell warns about possible upward pressure on prices from tariffs, boosting inflation further.

Concluding the segment about economic conditions, Powell noted that the Fed is considering changes:

“In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. […] The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” 

The “hint” at possible rate cuts in September sparked a short-term Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and U.S. equity futures rally. However, by Monday, the markets retraced to pre-speech levels.

What caught experts’ attention in Powell’s speech?

Powell didn’t explicitly say that the Fed is going to cut the rates. More than that, he outlined the challenges the Fed is facing. Tariffs are still seen as a factor that may trigger higher inflation. So, why do experts call this speech important?

According to The Wolf of All Streets host Scott Melker, the Jackson Hole speech “marked a turning point,” as the Fed is “signaling the first real opening for rate cuts.”

Chief market investment strategist at MetLife Investment Management, Drew Matus, is more pessimistic. He is concerned that the Fed won’t have too much room to cut rates because of the constant inflation and slow-paced economic growth.

Speaking about the possible reason for the rate cut, CNBC journalist Steve Liesman emphasized that Powell claimed that tariffs are likely to cause a one-time price level increase (which doesn’t mean all at once). According to Liesman, it is a position adopted from Christopher Waller, a Fed governor who voted for rate lowering back in July.

Commenting on the segment of the speech in which Powell claims that the Federal Open Market Committee will make decisions based only “on their assessment of the data” and “will never deviate from that approach,” banking observer and editor Dan Ennis noted, “the last sentence is critical. […] The FOMC, on Powell’s watch, will not be unduly influenced.” This is especially important, given the immense pressure on Powell from Donald Trump and his supporters.

Background behind the feud between Powell and Trump

Changes in the interest rates are one of the crucial factors for the economy. Through the reduction of interest rates, the Fed stimulates the economy as borrowing money from banks gets cheaper. However, lower interest rates are normally associated with increased inflation risks, so the Fed has to walk the tight rope between inflation and unemployment risks while deciding on changing the interest rate.

The rates have been remaining unchanged since December 2024–the Fed keeps them at the 4.25%-4.5% range. Powell and his colleagues from the Fed cited Donald Trump’s tariff policy as the factor that may contribute to inflation. So, throughout 2025, the Fed board members have been consistently reluctant to lower interest rates to ensure inflation won’t go up. While inflation may go down, it is still above the 2% objective set by the Fed.

Opinions over the need for the Fed to cut rates are split. High tariffs discourage exports from the U.S. while helping President Trump to set negotiations with leaders of other countries. To stimulate exports, Trump needs a cheaper dollar, and lowering the interest rates would be the relevant measure. 

While Trump claims that Powell is hurting the housing industry because high interest rates make mortgages expensive, a financial commentator and stockbroker, Peter Schiff, argues that cutting rates is not the solution to the housing market problems. According to him, it will only allow people to borrow more money for buying overpriced houses. Others reminded that cutting interest rates preceded the 2008 financial crisis, which definitely cannot be called a solution to the housing problem. 

Cutting interest rates won’t fix the housing market. It just lets people borrow more money to buy overpriced homes. The real solution is letting house prices fall so buyers don’t need to borrow as much to buy them. Ironically, Fed rate cuts will push mortgage rates even higher.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) August 23, 2025

Trump has been pressing Powell to cut rates multiple times, resorting to calling him names and discussing the possibility of firing Powell, which could be possible only via support from the Supreme Court. In July, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) referred Powell to the Department of Justice, accusing him of lying under oath. A number of publications called this case “lawfare” against the Fed chairman. Additionally, on Aug. 25, Donald Trump claimed that he fired the Fed governor Lisa Cook, citing allegations over mortgage fraud.

What made the pressure even stronger is the dissent inside the Fed itself. Two of the twelve Fed governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, voted for interest rate cuts in July. The latter of them is considered, among other candidates, to replace Powell as soon as his term expires in May of 2026. 

While it’s not clear whether Powell hinted at an upcoming interest rate reduction in September because he couldn’t stand the pressure anymore or because he finally saw the necessity to do so, if the Fed pushes the rates lower, the crypto market is expected to go up.





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Crypto liquidations surpass $900m following Fed Chair's Jackson Hole speech
GameFi Guides

Crypto liquidations surpass $900m following Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole speech

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Crypto liquidations have hit $940 million as Bitcoin slips briefly below $109,000. This mass liquidation comes only a few days after the market saw gains following the Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole speech.

Summary

  • Crypto liquidations cross over $940 million after BTC briefly dips below $110,000.
  • The overall crypto market lost $200 billion despite seeing major gains from the Fed Chair’s speech about possibly cutting interest rates.

According to data from CoinGlass, the majority of crypto liquidations were long positions; which made up $826.51 million of the total $941 million of liquidations.

As Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped below the $110,000 threshold, Bitcoin positions made up the second largest portion of liquidations on the board. Based on the 24-hour heatmap, Bitcoin liquidations have hit $277.21 million or nearly 30% of the total crypto liquidations.

This wave of liquidations comes only a few days after a late-week dovish signal from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which triggered gains of $594 million for the crypto market. However, the hype was apparently short-lived as BTC has fallen off its $110,000.

Crypto liquidations in the past 24 hours dominated by long positions | Source: CoinGlass

On August 22, at the Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at possible interest rate cuts ahead as he stated that there was currently a high level of uncertainty that is making it difficult for policymakers.

This move sparked major gains in the crypto market as Bitcoin climbed to a weekly high of $116,960 as it nearly touched the $117,000 level. However, the victory ended too soon as BTC avalanched down to the $109,000 range.

Price chart for Bitcoin in the past few hours following the gradual fall | Source: TradingView

What could high crypto liquidations mean for the market?

Crypto liquidations hitting $941 million could indicate extreme volatility and over-leveraging by traders within the wider crypto market. Considering liquidations are triggered by price swings that close long and short positions, such a large-scale wipeout points to an imbalance between bullish and bearish sentiment, with cascading liquidations accelerating the downward move.

This is evident through the overall crypto market cap losing $200 billion or around 2.2% of its market cap. On August 26, the crypto market cap fell from its $4 trillion high and stands at $3.8 trillion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has yet to recover from its fall from grace; it hangs precariously at the edge of $110,000 as it currently trades at $110,250.

Ethereum (ETH) is faring slightly better despite a 4.9% dip as it stays within the $4,400 range with a value of $4,429.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.



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Higher on Powell Jackson Hole Remarks
GameFi Guides

Higher on Powell Jackson Hole Remarks

by admin



Perhaps surprising markets which had expected a hawkish tone, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell firmly put a September rate cut on the table on Friday.

Speaking at the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Powell said the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy.

“Downside risks to employment are rising,” said Powell. “If those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.”

Bitcoin has gained about 2% since the remarks hit the wires, rising to $114,200. U.S. stocks have added more than 1% and the 10-year Treasury yield is lower by six basis points to 4.27%. The dollar index has dipped about 0.5% and gold is higher by 0.6%.

Rough week ahead of Powell

In anticipation that Powell would remain hawkish, risk markets — crypto among them — had been under sizable pressure in the days leading up to his address.

Touching a record high above $124,000 about one week ago alongside September rate cut expectations that had risen to nearly 100%, bitcoin BTC$114,886.93 has slumped nearly 10% to $112,000 since as those monetary easing hopes quickly dwindled to just 69% in the hours ahead of Powell’s speech. In the minutes following, those odds have re-risen to nearly 90%, per CME FedWatch.

Read more: Fed’s Hammack Says ‘No’ to Rate Cut; Bitcoin Slips to Session Low Below $113K

The correction in the perhaps more speculative ether (ETH) was even deeper, with that crypto tumbling roughly 12% over the same time frame after coming within a few dollars of its all-time high. It’s bounced nearly 8% since the Powell speech.

In traditional markets, the Nasdaq dipped 3% over the past few days as it too priced in lessening chances of a rate cut.



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Nikhilesh De
GameFi Guides

State of Crypto: Crypto Takes Jackson Hole

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Policymakers of various stripes spoke at the SALT Wyoming conference this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

The narrative

Congress is still on vacation, but policymakers trekked up to Jackson Hole, Wyoming to speak to the crypto industry — largely praising it or saying how they expect legislation to move forward. Here are some clips of what they said, courtesy of CoinDesk’s Helene Braun and others.

Why it matters

The industry has seen a lot of progress on crypto policy priorities this year. Lawmakers’ comments hint at what the last four months of 2025 might look like, and what we can expect from federal regulators.

Breaking it down

“I believe that we’ll have between 12 and 18 Democrats at least open to voting for market structure.” — Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott

“We will have it on the President’s desk before Thanksgiving.” — Senator Cynthia Lummis on market structure legislation

“Just imagine seeing on public equity all the transactions that go in and out of that company and how much information that gives you.” — Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson

“We need a clear, strategic regulatory framework that will facilitate the adoption of new technology, recognizing that in some cases, it may be inadequate and inappropriate to apply existing regulatory guidance to address emerging tech.” — Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman

“There is nothing to be afraid of when thinking about smart contracts, tokenization or distributed ledgers.” — Federal Reserve Board Governor Chris Waller

“It’s no secret that my side of the aisle would prefer not to see any sitting President — I won’t name one — participating in this market while a sitting president unless those assets are in a sealed trust.” — Rep. Angie Craig, ranking member on the House Agriculture Committee

  • Congress remains on break and no regulatory agency is holding an event this week.
  • (CNBC) Goldman Sachs expects U.S. consumers to pay for the tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump imposed on most countries trading with the U.S. A few days after that earlier article, Sony announced it would raise the price of Playstation 5 consoles in the U.S.
  • (Electronic Frontier Foundation) Wyoming and South Dakota have enacted stringent laws requiring websites to verify users’ ages if they host “any sexual content,” including “a broad range of non-pornographic content, including classic literature and art.”
  • (The Wall Street Journal) Despite Elon Musk’s public statements about founding a new political party, he is backtracking and instead considering supporting Vice President JD Vance and other Republicans, the Journal reported.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!



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Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Options Traders Split Ahead of Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting

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In brief

  • Options data indicates that Bitcoin traders are split, with nearly equal bullish and bearish block trades.
  • Experts suggest markets will be closely watching for Powell’s tone if there’s no clear decision surrounding rate cuts.
  • They also said crypto’s bullish market structure remains intact in the long term.

Bitcoin traders are entering a high-stakes standoff ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. 

With conflicting macroeconomic signals and mixed investor sentiment, the directional bias remains unclear for U.S. equities and crypto.

The July CPI report, delivered earlier this month, provided a bullish signal with rate cut hopes, prompting a crypto market rally that pushed Bitcoin to an all-time high in the first two weeks of August. 



Subsequent PPI data release, however, has elevated inflation concerns, further aggravating ambiguity over whether the Fed intends to cut rates this year, including next month.

Bitcoin has dropped from 8% from its August 14 all-time high of around $124,128 to $114,170 following a sharp decline over the past seven days, CoinGecko data shows.

Despite Bitcoin being near record highs, “the market is pricing in roughly an 85% chance of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting,” John Haar, managing director at Swan Bitcoin, told Decrypt.

“Powell is likely to keep his comments relatively neutral in order to keep his options open,” Harr added.

To cut or not to cut, that is Powell’s question

While bond traders remain adamant that a cut will arrive in September, the uncertainty has led to a split in investor expectations and betting in the derivatives market.

The “block bullish and bearish trades were nearly equal,” Adam Chu, Chief researcher at GreeksLive, an options trading platform, told Decypt. 

Even with marked trading volume, “short-term implied volatility declined,” Adam said, indicating “institutional investors are not very optimistic that this meeting will bring about significant volatility.”

In any case, the market’s reaction hinges on Powell’s tone. 

“It’s clear that many investors are hoping for a rate cut,” James Gernetzke, CFO at Exodus, told Decrypt.

Gernetzke believes that while a rate decision may not become clear until future data is released, investors should still “take note of his tone—this will matter just as much as the specifics.”

“Bitcoin and crypto assets are sensitive to global liquidity conditions and should respond favorably to any further signal the Fed will continue on its dovish path,” Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, told Decrypt.

A hawkish tone, however, could spark a renewed sell-off in equities and crypto. 

But Gernetzke also offered a nuanced view, noting that this crypto market cycle is “atypical due to regulatory tailwinds” and institutional adoption, which “could soften the blow of a hawkish Powell.” 

O’Shea echoed that sentiment, arguing that any negative near-term decision on rates wouldn’t impact the long-term investment case for crypto, supported by institutional adoption and favorable policy from the White House.

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Volatility crashing across asset classes (TradingView)
GameFi Guides

Volatility Meltdown Everywhere as Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Looms

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A pervasive calm has taken hold of asset classes as traders look forward to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for Aug. 21-23.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex’s BVIV and Deribit’s DVOL index, has declined sharply in recent months, hovering near two-year lows of around 36% last week, according to TradingView data.

Similarly, the CME Gold Volatility Index (GVZ), which estimates the expected 30-day volatility of returns for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), has more than halved over the past four months, dropping to 15.22%—its lowest level since January.

The MOVE index, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility of Treasury notes, has also declined in recent months, reaching a 3.5-year low of 76%.

Meanwhile, the VIX, widely regarded as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” fell below 14% last week, down substantially from its early April highs near 45%. A similar vol compression is seen in FX majors such as the EUR/USD.

Rates are ‘still high’

The pronounced slide in volatility across major assets comes as central banks, particularly the Fed, are expected to deliver rate cuts from restrictive territory, rather than amid a crisis.

“Most major economies are not easing from ultra-low or emergency levels like we saw after the financial crisis or during COVID. They’re cutting from restrictive territory, meaning rates are still high enough to slow growth, and in many cases, real rates, adjusted for inflation, are still positive. That’s a big shift from the last easing cycles, and it changes how the next phase plays out,” pseudonymous observer Endgame Macro noted on X, explaining the bull run in all assets, including cryptocurrencies and stock markets.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, resuming the easing cycle after an eight-month pause. Investment banking giant JPMorgan expects the benchmark borrowing cost to drop to 3.25%-3.5% by the end of the first quarter of 2026, a 100-basis-point decrease from the current 4.25%.

Per some observers, Powell could lay the groundwork for fresh easing during this Jackson Hole speech.

“The path to rate cuts may be uneven, as we have seen over the last two years, where markets have been eager for rate cuts and sometimes disappointed that the Fed has not delivered them. But we believe the direction of travel for rates is likely to remain lower,” Angelo Kourkafas, a senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones, said in a blog post on Friday.

“With inflation treading water and labour-market strains becoming more pronounced, the balance of risks may soon tip toward action. Chair Powell’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole could validate the now-high expectations that, after a seven-month pause, rate cuts will resume in September,” Jones added.

In other words, the decline in volatility across asset classes likely reflects expectations for easy monetary policy and economic stability.

Markets too complacent?

However, contrarians may view it as a sign that markets are too complacent, as President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs threaten to weigh on economic growth, and the latest data points to sticky inflation.

Just take a look at the price levels for most assets, including BTC and gold: They are all at record highs.

Prosper Trading Academy’s Scott Bauer argued last week during an interview with Schwab Network that volatility is too low following the recent round of economic data, with more uncertainty on the horizon.

The argument for market complacency gains credence when viewed against the backdrop of bond markets, where corporate bond spreads hit their lowest since 2007. That prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs to warn clients against complacency and take hedges.

“There are enough sources of downside risks to warrant keeping some hedges on in portfolios,” Goldman strategists led by Lotfi Karoui wrote in a note dated July 31, according to Bloomberg.

“Growth could surprise further to the downside,” dis-inflationary pressures could fade or renewed concerns over Fed independence may fuel a sharp selloff in long-dated yields.

In any case, volatility is mean-reverting, meaning periods of low volatility typically set the stage for a return to more turbulent conditions.



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