The 38th week of the year is historically the third-worst performing week for bitcoin, averaging a return of -2.25%. Only week 28 (-2.78%) and week 14 (-3.91%) have been weaker historically, according to Coinglass data.
This week, bitcoin is already down nearly 2%, trading around $113,000, with September’s monthly options expiry pointing to a max pain level at $110,000, according to Deribit, this could imply further downside.
Max pain refers to the strike price at which the largest number of options contracts (calls and puts) expire worthless, effectively maximizing losses for option buyers.
In addition, market enthusiasm has faded. Perpetual funding rates for bitcoin, which measure the ongoing cost of holding leveraged long or short positions in perpetual futures contracts, have dropped to 4%, one of their lowest levels in a month.
A low positive funding rate suggests reduced demand for leveraged long exposure, often signaling that speculative froth in the market has cooled.
While, implied volatility (IV), which reflects market expectations for future price swings, is also near historic lows at 37.
Despite the weekly dip, bitcoin remains 4% higher in September and up 6% for the quarter. With roughly 14 weeks left in the year and most of those weeks historically producing positive returns, this may represent calm before potential volatility.
Meanwhile, gold has continued its impressive rally, climbing another 1% on Tuesday and now more than 42% higher year to date, which continues to take the sting out of bitcoin.
Another factor weighing on bitcoin sentiment is the massive gains in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing stocks, for example IREN (IREN), which may have taken some shine away from bitcoin in the short term.