Flips

In brief

• A volatile crypto market has led to drastic odds shifts on some of Myriad’s most-traded prediction markets.
• Predictors have flipped bearish on Ethereum and PENGU, now suggesting both are more likely to “dump” then rise to new heights.
• While a Solana all-time high by the year’s end felt likely last week, predictors now no longer expect it.

The crypto market is slumping this week as liquidations surge, prompting major changes to some of Myriad’s most traded prediction markets. 

In the span of a week, predictors have flipped from bullish to bearish, swinging the odds completely for markets related to the price of Ethereum, Solana, and Pudgy Penguins’ culture coin, PENGU. 

Here’s a deeper look into some of the most-traded markets on Myriad this week. 

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)

Ethereum’s next hit: moon to $5K or dip to $3.5K?

Market Open: August 11
Market Close: Open to resolution
Volume: $140K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Ethereum’s Next Hit: Moon to $5K or Dip to $3.5K” market on Myriad

The euphoria around the short-lived Ethereum all-time high push last month has all but faded at present time. The second-largest crypto asset by market cap came within $54 of hitting $5,000 in late August, but has since slid below $4,000 at the time of writing. 

That price volatility has mirrored itself on the Myriad market that asks predictors about the next stop for ETH—$3,500 or $5,000. 

Since the market opened on August 11, predictors had leaned bullish, with odds hitting as high as 81% in favor of $5,000 on September 13. Less than two weeks later, though, the market has flipped bearish, with predictors now favoring a dip to $3,500 at 68%. 

After a hectic race to accumulate Ethereum, digital asset treasuries have cooled their pace of late and Ethereum ETFs have seen three consecutive days of outflows, further pulling the price of ETH down alongside the broader market.

Now more than 20% off its all-time high, ETH sits around 11% from the $3,500 level in this market. Holders looking to hedge their positions on Myriad could stand to gain around 32% should the asset fall to that marker sooner than it can make the leap to $5,000.

What’s Next? ETH is now down 15% in the last seven days, with analysts telling Decrypt on Thursday that a key support level sits at $3,000. 

New Solana all-time high by year end?

Market Open: August 6
Market Close: December 31
Volume: $94.4K
Link: See the latest odds on the “New Solana All-Time High By Year End” market on Myriad

Solana made a new all-time high of $293.31 in January as it gained enormous amounts of attention and momentum amid the launch of the President’s official meme coin. 

Since that time though, it’s fallen 32% to $197.14. 

Myriad asks predictors whether or not SOL will hit a new all-time high before the end of the year. Last week, predictors said “yes,” giving 66% odds of a new high mark for SOL before 2026. 

Fast-forward one week, however, and things are much different. 

SOL has fallen more than 21% in the last seven days as the broader market slumps, pulling down odds of the new all-time high by a similar amount. Those odds now stand at 43% as predictors lean bearish on the feat. 

The token’s slide stands in the face of increasing Solana treasury buy pressure, one part of the recipe that Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan identified is crucial for an “epic” end to the year for SOL. Last week, Forward Industries bought nearly $1.6 billion worth of SOL for its treasury. It later filed for $4 billion more in funding to fuel additional purchases. 

That buy pressure combined with looming ETF decisions in the next month could be a catalyst for the run to a new all-time high. But is it already priced in? Predictors must think so. 

What’s Next? SEC decisions on as many as 90 ETFs, many tracking Solana, are expected in mid-October. 

PENGU price: pump to $0.05 or dump to $0.02?

Market Open: September 16
Market Close: Until resolution
Volume: $22.1K
Link: See the latest odds on the “PENGU Price: Pump to $0.05 or Dump to $0.02?” market on Myriad

Since its launch late last year, PENGU has provided Pudgy Penguins enthusiasts with an opportunity to invest in a fungible asset—something other than the Ethereum NFT collections tied to the brand. 

The ecosystem’s culture coin launched on Solana in December and quickly jumped above $0.06 before retracing in the following weeks—and trading well below $0.01 for most of Q1. After another steep rise this summer, the token has fallen 29% in the week, now changing hands at $0.027. 

The recent price action has led to volatility in Myriad’s prediction market, which asks predictors which stop is next for PENGU—$0.05 or $0.02. 

Last week, predictors were bullish, placing odds at $0.05 at more than 68% this time last Thursday. But in just one week, the odds have done a complete reversal, shifting more than 30% in both directions and now favoring $0.02 as the likely next step for PENGU. 

PENGU hasn’t been as low as $0.02 since July, and to get there, it would need to fall a further 27% from today’s mark. Predictors feel that’s much more likely than an 82% jump to $0.05. 

What’s Next? A decision on Canary’s PENGU ETF is due in the coming weeks. If approved, could it be a catalyst needed to propel the asset back towards $0.05?

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