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Bitcoin Reclaims $107,000, But MVRV Ratio Flags Bull Market Fatigue

by admin June 26, 2025

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Despite escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown remarkable resilience, rebounding strongly from nearly $98,000 on June 21 to slightly above $107,000 at the time of writing.

Bitcoins Holds Steady But Warning Signs Emerge

Bitcoin’s stability amid heightened tensions between Israel and Iran underscores its growing maturity as a store of value. Compared to June 2024, BTC is now up by 73.7%, bolstered by rising institutional confidence in the cryptocurrency.

However, some warning signs are beginning to surface. According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Yonsei_dent, momentum in Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio appears to be stalling.

For the uninitiated, the MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization to the value of all coins based on the price when they last moved (realized value). A high MVRV suggests the asset may be overvalued and near a market top, while a low MVRV can indicate undervaluation and a potential buying opportunity.

Historically, the slope and turning points of the MVRV’s 365-day moving average (MA) have aligned with major market cycle peaks. Currently, the slope is flattening, indicating a possible slowdown in momentum.

Source: CryptoQuant

That said, the analyst clarified this does not necessarily mean a downturn is imminent. Rather, it could indicate that the market is entering the late stages of the bull cycle, where investors tend to become more focused on capital allocation and risk management. Yonsei_dent concluded:

Historically, bull markets have often ended with explosive price surges – a “final blaze” before the peak. While tactical opportunities may remain, the long-term signals from on-chain data should not be ignored.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto predicted that BTC may be on track to reach $137,000. In a post on X, Titan pointed to a bull flag formation on the daily chart, along with an impending MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) crossover – typically a bullish signal.

Source: Titan of Crypto on X

Institutional Interest In BTC Continues To Grow

While the MVRV ratio might present a pessimistic outlook for the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, institutions are not too bothered by short-term technical indicators. Recent developments support this argument.

For example, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor recently made an ambitious prediction of BTC reaching as high as $21 million by 2046. Similarly, Mexico’s third-richest man recently stepped up his BTC buying activity.

Governments are also beginning to embrace Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Most notably, the Texas State Government recently approved a strategic Bitcoin reserve as part of its broader financial diversification strategy.

Still, some analysts caution that in the short term, BTC could see a pullback to the $93,000 – $94,000 range. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $107,158, up 1.9% in the past 24 hours.

BTC trades at $107,158 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com

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June 26, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

BTC Struggling to Recover; Analytics Firm Flags Bearish Sentiment and Trader Impatience

by admin June 21, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC)

continues to struggle for direction amid mounting macroeconomic pressures and a notable deterioration in retail investor sentiment. The asset is hovering near $103,700 following a volatile 24-hour stretch, in which it briefly dropped below $103,400 before staging a modest recovery, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis model. This price behavior reflects an uneasy market backdrop, shaped by both geopolitical tensions and uncertain monetary policy.

According to an X post by crypto analytics firm Santiment on Thursday, sentiment among retail investors has turned sharply negative. The firm reported that the ratio of bullish to bearish commentary has fallen to just 1.03 to 1 — the lowest since early April, when the President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called Liberation Day tariffs, triggering peak market fear at the time.

Santiment emphasized that this current wave of retail pessimism is unusually intense and, based on past patterns, may mark a contrarian signal for a price rebound. They specifically noted that back in April, Bitcoin rallied shortly after similar fear levels surfaced, suggesting large investors often use periods of retail capitulation to accumulate at favorable prices.

Adding to the pressure is the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady, which has kept btcoin trading in a relatively tight $100,000 to $110,000 range over the past month. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics show declining open interest on Binance, pointing to continued deleveraging among derivatives traders. At the same time, whale wallets have shown steady accumulation since 2023 — an indication that large holders are continuing to build their positions despite the short-term uncertainty.

Technical Analysis Highlights

BTC-USD traded in a 24-hour range between $106,552.98 and $102,411.01, a 3.89% swing as volatility spiked midday.
A sharp drop occurred between 14:00 and 17:00 UTC, pushing price below $104,000 and forming strong resistance near $106,000 on above-average volume.
Support emerged between $103,000 and $103,500, where price consolidated on declining volume during the final eight hours of the analysis period.
A V-shaped rebound developed late in the session, with BTC rising from $103,363 to $103,618 and establishing a local floor near $103,500.
Short-term momentum indicators showed mild recovery as the session closed near intraday highs, but follow-through remained limited.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.

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June 21, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

Fed Beige Book flags modest decline in activity, stable labor market

by admin June 5, 2025

In a live reaction to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book release Wednesday afternoon, Bloomberg’s Federal Reserve and economics reporter Catarina Saraiva highlighted an increasingly cautious mood across U.S. businesses and consumers.

Saraiva stated the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book is “pretty similar” report to what we have seen this year, pointing to slight declines in activity and a labor market holding steady.

Saraiva emphasized how uncertainty, particularly tied to trade tensions and tariffs, continues to weigh on decision-making. She added that businesses and consumers “are kind of waiting to see how this tariff fight plays out.”

The Beige Book mentioned tariffs a total of 122 times, and that “economic activity declining modestly” was a recurring theme across multiple regions, she noted.

Consumer spending holds

Despite fears that tariffs would depress household spending, Saraiva said U.S. consumers have remained surprisingly resilient. The consumer, she said “has stayed strong” and a “big part of that is the labor market.” Retail sales increased slightly, but there’s been a drop in big-ticket purchases.

On inflation, Saraiva pointed to an ongoing concern at the Fed: the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. “That completely takes away the Fed’s ability to control prices,” she warned. However, she noted that most market-based inflation measures remain stable, despite some recent volatility in sentiment surveys.

Michelle Bowman seen as a steady, regulation-light Fed candidate

Saraiva also discussed her recent reporting on Michelle Bowman, U.S. President Donald Trump’s pick for the Federal Reserve’s Vice Chair for Supervision. Bowman, currently a Fed governor, is known for her support of lighter-touch regulation and opposition to recent proposals for increased capital requirements.

“Her views are very widely known… she’s kind of aligned with the industry when it comes to [regulation],” Saraiva said.

She added that Bowman still advocates for rigorous supervision and has called for an independent review of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

Bowman could also be in the running to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, Saraiva added. She’s already on the board and has “proven herself to be a dedicated policymaker.”

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June 5, 2025 0 comments

Dow drops 245 points as Fed minutes spooks Wall Street

GameFi Guides

Dow Jones snaps win streak as Fed Beige Book flags weak growth, rising costs

by admin June 4, 2025

U.S. stocks ended mixed Wednesday after a weak private payrolls report and a cautious economic outlook from the Fed’s Beige Book fueled concerns about growth, inflation, and tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a four day winning steak, closing lower by 91.90 points, or 0.22%. The S&P 500 was nearly flat, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.32% to end at 19,460.49.

Wednesday’s stock trading session sentiment was hit by a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report, which showed private payrolls rose by only 37,000 in May, notably below estimates. The reading comes ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data and may force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 4.349%, its lowest since early May.

Fed’s Beige Book flags weakening growth, rising price pressures.

Further clouding the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released on Wednesday morning, reported a “slight decline” in U.S. economic activity over the past six weeks. Hiring activity was mostly flat as business owners put off expansion plans due to elevated policy uncertainty from Washington and tariff-related cost pressures.

“All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty,” the Fed noted. The report also cited “widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward.”

Tariffs were mentioned 122 times in the Beige Book, up from 107 in April.

Businesses across multiple regions, including New York and Philadelphia, reported rising input costs. Some firms are expecting reduced profit margins or passing along some additional cost to consumers to manage input spikes.

Boston, New York, and Philadelphia saw declines in activity. However, regions like Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago reported modest growth. Overall, the Fed found that even in stronger districts, hiring activity was cautious.

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June 4, 2025 0 comments

NFT Gaming

Cardano Developer IOG Flags Unconstitutional Behavior

by admin June 4, 2025

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In a late-night post on June 3, Input Output Global (IOG) announced that it had finished reviewing two high-profile governance actions now before Cardano’s Voltaire-era electorate. “Input | Output has completed its assessment of the Amaru and DeFi Liquidity budget Info Actions. We find the DeFi Liquidity action unconstitutional … We find the Amaru action constitutional,” the company wrote on X.

That single sentence set off a new round of debate about the procedural safeguards embedded in the Cardano Constitution—a document adopted in February to give legal weight to on-chain decision-making.

Cardano Proposals Under Scrutiny

IOG’s “No” vote on the liquidity proposal rests on a technical but foundational rule in Article III, Section 5 of the Constitution. The article requires every governance action to publish a URL for its off-chain documentation and to record, on-chain, the cryptographic hash of that file. The hash is supposed to guarantee that no one can quietly swap the PDF or JSON once voting begins.

In the liquidity proposal the two values diverged. Input Output Global’s engineers downloaded the file and calculated a Blake2b-256 digest. The hash embedded in the transaction, however, was different. That mismatch “renders the proposal unconstitutional in its current form,” IOG argued, because voters cannot be sure what they are really approving.

The practical upshot is that, unless the authors resubmit with matching metadata, the Stablecoin Liquidity budget—originally pitched as a ₳50 million, 12-month programme to seed liquidity across Cardano DEXs—cannot move forward. Cardano’s Delegated Representatives (DReps) may still cast ballots, but the Constitutional Committee is now obliged to disregard the result.

By contrast, the “Cardano Blockchain Ecosystem Budget: Amaru 2025” sailed through IOG’s review. The project seeks ₳1.5 million to finance an alternative Cardano node implementation written in Rust. Governance Space records show the action is already pulling in more than 90 percent “Yes” support from voting stake—well above the 50 percent threshold that treasury-related actions must clear.

IOG’s rationale highlights several constitutional touch-points: the proposal’s purpose aligns with decentralisation goals in the Preamble and Article I; it follows the standard metadata format demanded by Article III, Section 5; it provides an explicit fund-administration framework that satisfies Article IV, Section 2; and it confirms that the requested sum will not breach the Net-Change Limit in Article IV, Section 3.

The only caveat IOG raised concerns the line-item for “Ad-hoc mercenaries” to cover audits—an ambiguous phrase that the company says should be clarified before disbursement.

What Happens Next

Under Cardano’s CIP-1694 governance flow, DReps have until epoch 563 (June 8) to vote. If the DeFi Liquidity action retains its flawed metadata, it will almost certainly be tossed regardless of the tally. The Amaru budget, on the other hand, is on track for approval; once ratified, its maintainers will be able to draw down funds in tranches, subject to on-chain spending scripts and oversight from PRAGMA’s legal wrapper.

The episode underscores why the Constitution’s seemingly dry formatting rules matter. Without an anchor-hash match, the “single source of truth” principle that keeps Cardano proposals immutable collapses, opening the door to bait-and-switch edits that no chain audit could detect. As IOG’s post put it, the mismatch “undermines the constitutional requirement for a clear, verifiable, and identical link between the on-chain governance action and its off-chain specification.”

At press time, ADA traded at $0.69.

ADA hovers below key resistance again, 1-week chart | Source: ADAUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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June 4, 2025 0 comments

GameFi Guides

ZachXBT flags legal gaps after teen’s $37m crypto theft

by admin June 1, 2025

Crypto sleuth ZachXBT has called for stricter penalties against SIM swapping and social engineering fraudsters.

He highlighted the case of a Canadian teenager who allegedly carried out a $37 million cryptocurrency theft. ZachXBT’s comments followed an X user’s suggestion that “wallet draining should be the death penalty.”

The post received a reply from the crypto sleuth on the gaps in current legal frameworks, especially regarding juvenile offenders.

ZachXBT shares $37m Canadian case

The investigator specifically referenced Cameron Redman, who allegedly conducted a massive SIM swap attack in 2020 at age 17.

The hacker targeted a victim for approximately 60,000 Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and 1,547 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $37 million at the time.

Cameron Redman helped SIM swap $37M in 2020 when he was 17 from Canada

Not a single mention of his full name or photo on the internet until I posted it after he got involved with phishing / X ATOs

Zero reason his name should’ve been protected or hidden https://t.co/F5uoQsD4rK

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) June 1, 2025

According to ZachXBT’s research, the February 22, 2020 attack against victim Josh Jones involved complicated money laundering techniques. The stolen Bitcoin Cash was moved through hundreds of small transactions to centralized exchanges. However, most Bitcoin was funneled through mixing services, including Chip Mixer and Crypto Mixer.

ZachXBT criticized the legal protections afforded to minors in high-value cybercrime cases. He noted that “laws in Canada and EU are super relaxed, so threat actors can get away with a lot.”

The sleuth expressed particular frustration with name suppression policies for juvenile offenders and stated he publishes full names “regardless of age” when investigating crypto crimes.

Hamilton Police in Ontario formally charged Redman in November 2021 following collaboration with the FBI and U.S. Secret Service. Authorities recovered $5.4 million of cryptocurrency during the investigation, though $31.5 million remains unaccounted for.

The case resurfaced when ZachXBT identified Redman’s alleged involvement in recent phishing attacks and X account takeovers targeting NFT projects. Given the scale of the financial crimes, the investigator noted there was “zero reason his name should’ve been protected or hidden.”

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June 1, 2025 0 comments

James Wynn takes $5.3m loss, bets $1.2b on Bitcoin lifeline

NFT Gaming

Bitcoin bulls are ignoring these three red flags, drop to $100K likely?

by admin May 29, 2025

Bitcoin slipped under key support at $108,000, gathering liquidity below the $107,000 level on Thursday. The largest cryptocurrency’s holders appear unimpressed by promises from regulators and bullish commentary from U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Senator Cynthia Lummis. BTC could sweep liquidity under the $100,000 milestone this week or over the weekend, analysts warn.

Bitcoin bulls are slowing down, what’s next

Bitcoin’s (BTC) maximalists and permabulls are showing signs of slowing down, with Strategy’s purchases declining in volume. Between May 19 and May 25, Strategy acquired 4,020 BTC at $40.61 billion, using proceeds from “Common ATM, STRK ATM and STRF ATM,” according to the firm’s May 26 filing.

Barron’s reported a correlation between Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases and BTC price. While some analysts argue the company’s large acquisitions have positively influenced BTC, TD Cowen examined six months of price action and trading volume and concluded that “MicroStrategy’s purchases represented only a fraction of total Bitcoin trading volume, with a median average weekly result of 3.3%.”

The correlation is insignificant, therefore Bitcoin’s price trend is unaffected by Strategy’s purchases.

News of Wall Street giants and firms adding Bitcoin to their treasuries may have lifted sentiment among traders. However, there is no clear evidence of meaningful impact, and this week, traders remain largely unmoved by both promises and purchases.

Institutional capital flow into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs is also declining, while large whales and long-term BTC holders are realizing profits on their positions.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows | Source: Farside Investors

Since April 1, three key segments of Bitcoin holders have shown similar behavior. Addresses holding 10–100 BTC, 1,000–10,000 BTC, and 100,000–1 million BTC have all reduced their holdings, likely cashing out gains from the April to May rally.

Santiment data shows a steep decline in holdings of the three cohorts.

Bitcoin holder cohorts and declining holdings | Source: Santiment

If this profit-taking continues, it could increase selling pressure across exchanges and push BTC lower in the long term.

Bitcoin price forecast

Bitcoin is currently trading under the $108,000 support level, at $106,286 at the time of writing. On the daily timeframe, technical indicators support a bearish outlook. The RSI is trending downward at 56, while the MACD is printing red histogram bars below the neutral line, both signs of weakening momentum.

BTC could collect liquidity at support levels S1 and S2, marking the upper and lower boundaries of the FVG on the daily chart, located at $102,315 and $97,732, respectively. A retest of the $100,000 psychological milestone remains a likely scenario.

Bitcoin is currently less than 4% away from its S1 support. Once the FVG is filled, a recovery may begin, as this zone is marked as a bullish FVG on the BTC/USDT daily chart.

BTC/USDT price chart | Source: Crypto.news

Alternatively, a daily close above $108,000 could invalidate the bearish structure and open the door for a retest of the all-time high at $111,980.

Capital rotation is real though altcoin season is delayed

The team of analysts at Bitunix told Crypto.news in an exclusive interview that capital rotation favors altcoins in certain segments this cycle, rather than a full-blow alt season as observed during 2018 and 2020 bull runs.

As Bitcoin’s market dominance weakens, analysts suggest BTC may have peaked. Despite institutional inflows, several altcoin sectors have shown relatively stronger performance.

Bitunix analysts said:

“We’ve observed accelerating volume and capital inflows into narrative-driven tokens in sectors like AI (e.g., FET, RNDR), real-world assets (e.g., ONDO, LINK), and Layer 2 (e.g., ARB, OP).

If BTC faces resistance in the 110k–115k range and ETH breaks through the critical $2800–$3000 level, we could see a segmented capital rotation favoring high-narrative, high-liquidity altcoins, rather than a traditional full-blown altcoin season.”

Altcoin season, typically defined as a period when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin, appears either delayed or segmented this cycle. Experts support a theory of focused rotation into specific narratives instead of broad altcoin outperformance.

Ruslan Lienkha, Chief of Markets at YouHodler, told Crypto.news in a written note that recent activity suggests a correction rather than a full reversal.

Lienkha noted that Bitcoin has spent most of 2025 trading between $90,000 and $110,000, a key consolidation zone saturated with market orders. This suggests strong interest and potential support. He believes another leg up is likely, with BTC potentially rallying to a new all-time high after more range-bound trading.

James Toledano, Chief Operating Officer at Unity Wallet said,

“Bitcoin’s rally to a new all-time high of almost $112,000 has already priced in bullish catalysts like institutional inflows and geopolitical uncertainty. As liquidity tightens ahead of key economic data, traders are likely adopting a wait-and-see approach. I see it as a stabilization and not a stall, reflecting a classic consolidation phase after strong gains earlier in the month. With open interest still high and funding rates relatively neutral, this sideways movement suggests a temporary breather rather than a trend reversal.”

Toledano is in agreement with Lienkha on a temporary breather and a return to the all-time high as Bitcoin consolidates in a key support zone.

Bitunix analysts also commented on macroeconomic factors influencing Bitcoin price. They noted that the latest Federal Reserve minutes signal a “dove in hawk” stance, with the policy direction still unclear. The analysts Analysts stated in a seperate note:

“BTC as a high volatility asset is the first to bear the brunt of uncertainty, technically we need to pay attention to the support zone of $107,700-$106,500, if it breaks down, it may be down to $105,000, and the upper pressure of $110,800-$112,000, we recommend to wait and see before a breakthrough.”

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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May 29, 2025 0 comments