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Feds Charge Brothers in Alleged $8 Million Crypto Kidnapping of Minnesota Family

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In brief

  • Two brothers have been charged with kidnapping after allegedly holding a family hostage in a plot to steal $8 million in crypto.
  • The brothers allegedly forced their way into the family’s home at gun point.
  • The local school district canceled a homecoming football game as police searched for the brothers.

U.S. federal prosecutors in Minnesota charged two Texas brothers with violently kidnapping a Minnesota family and stealing $8 million in crypto, according to a filing on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Justice.

The U.S. Attorney Office, Minnesota district accused Raymond Christian Garcia, 23, and Isiah Angelo Garcia, 24 of using an AR-15-style rifle and a shotgun to force their way into the family’s Grant, Minnesota home, where they bound a man, his wife and their son, and held them hostage until he transferred the amount to their digital wallets. The DOJ did not reveal which digital coins specifically were stolen. 

The ordeal led to the cancellation of a homecoming football game. Grant is in the Eastern part of the state about 45 minutes from Minneapolis. 

“A violent kidnapping that stole $8 million and silenced a homecoming game is not just a crime.  It is a blow to the sense of safety of everyone in Minnesota,” Acting U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson said. 

He added: “This is not normal. Minnesotans should not accept wild violence and thievery as normal.  Every Minnesotan deserves to live in peace and a life unaffected by rampant crime.”

Mahtomedi High School canceled its September 22 game against Bloomington Kennedy for the “safety of its community,” as police searched for the alleged kidnappers.

Investigators allege that the Garcia brothers restrained the family for nine hours starting on September 19. At one point, Isiah Garcia forced the father at gunpoint to drive three hours away to a family cabin to access a portion of the crypto holdings, while Angelo remained with the wife and son.

According to the DOJ report, the son managed to call 911 when Angelo left the home. Police arrived to witness the son and mother still zip-tied and Angelo fleeing the home. They later found a suitcase that held a disassembled rifle, ammunition, clothing and beverages.

Investigators tracked a rented Chevrolet white Malibu to the brothers’ home in Waller, Texas, where they were arrested. Isiah Garcia has confessed to the kidnapping, according to the DOJ report. 

The DOJ charged them with kidnapping. The defendants made their initial appearances in federal court on Thursday.

The brothers also face three counts of kidnapping with a firearm, one count of first-degree aggravated robbery, and three counts of first-degree burglary, according to a complaint in Washington County, Minnesota. 

Crypto-fueled kidnappings—dubbed “wrench attacks”—are on the rise worldwide. In France, a total of 25 suspects were arrested this year after a series of crypto-driven attacks and kidnapping attempts, including the failed abduction of the pregnant daughter of Pierre Noizat, co-founder and CEO of French crypto exchange Paymium.

And Ledger co-founder David Balland and his wife were kidnapped in France and held for ransom back in January, with Balland’s finger reportedly cut off and sent to associates. Police liberated the couple after about 24 hours of captivity.

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BTC ETF Inflows Reverse as Fed’s Hawkish Outlook Triggers Market Caution
Crypto Trends

BTC ETF Inflows Reverse as Fed’s Hawkish Outlook Triggers Market Caution

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Spot bitcoin BTC$117,347.57 ETFs saw their first daily outflows in over a week on Wednesday, shedding a net $51.28 million, as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s unexpectedly cautious outlook on future policy.

The outflow broke a seven-day streak that had brought in nearly $3 billion. Assets under management remain above $150 billion, according to SoSoValue data, but the tone in markets shifted after Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized economic uncertainty and signaled fewer cuts ahead than traders had hoped.

As expected, the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, in its first cut of the year. But the real surprise came from the central bank’s updated projections, which indicated just two more cuts in 2025 and fewer in 2026 than markets had priced in.

In a cautious press conference, Powell warned of “elevated” inflation and rising “downside risks” to employment, striking a tone that left traders wary. Markets interpreted the move as a hawkish cut, triggering a mild pullback in risk assets.

Ethereum ETFs also saw redemptions, with net outflows for a second straight day. Withdrawals amounted to $1.89 million following the exit of $61.7 million the day before.

Cryptocurrency prices edged higher. Bitcoin rose around 0.3% in the last 24 hours while ether moved up 1.7%. The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rose 2%.



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Shiba Inu price eyes bounce amid ETF chatter, Fed’s rate cut
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Shiba Inu price eyes bounce amid ETF chatter, Fed’s rate cut

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Shiba Inu continues to struggle with downside pressure but appears bullishly positioned amid fresh chatter around a potential exchange-traded fund and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Summary

  • Shiba Inu price hovered around $0.00001306 as bulls attempted to mirror gains across crypto.
  • Excitement around exchange-traded funds and Fed’s rate cut could be key catalysts.

Price is also above the level seen during that dip to a low of $0.00001170 last week. However, a 12% decrease in trading volume to $177 million suggests indecisiveness for bulls and bears. 

Shiba Inu poised above $0.000013

After a volatile swing to lows of $0.00001295, Shiba Inu (SHIB) has posted a slight bounce as top memecoins target a potential recovery. SHIB traded near $0.00001306 at the time of writing. The memecoin’s price is back at levels where bulls have consolidated support over the past month.

Notable for Shiba Inu is that its recent price dip followed the security breach that impacted Shibarium.

The hack saw SHIB retreat to key levels, dropping out of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, currently at $7.69 billion. But with exchange-traded fund anticipation driving sentiment for Dogecoin (DOGE), analysts say a similar expectation may catalyze SHIB’s price gains in the coming weeks.

“With a multi-billion dollar market cap, global exchange listings, and one of the largest retail communities in crypto, SHIB already meets some of the same criteria that made Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF-ready,” the Shibarium team recently wrote.

“An ETF could expose SHIB to a new class of investors who prefer traditional financial products, bringing more attention (and legitimacy) to the token,” they added.

SHIB price outlook as Fed cuts interest rates 

As with other cryptocurrencies and tokens, the overall outlook for Shiba Inu is bullish as the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest-rate cut arrives.

Markets have been upbeat for several weeks after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the U.S. central bank would cut interest rates this September. On Sept. 17, after a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed announced a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut.

Stocks were mixed as the market reacted to the 25bps rate cut, which was already priced in and suggests investors wanted more.

Bitcoin (BTC), which showed signs of spiking ahead of the Fed meeting, gained slightly as it edged above $116,000. Shiba Inu’s price will follow the overall crypto market movement, with bulls’ advances beyond $0.000013 including short-term targets of $0.00001475.



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Breaking: Bitcoin Price Reacts to Fed's Highly Anticipated Rate Cut
Crypto Trends

Breaking: Bitcoin Price Reacts to Fed’s Highly Anticipated Rate Cut

by admin


  • Facing dilemma 
  • Post-LTCM easing vibes

The U.S. Federal Reserve has cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. 

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, is changing hands at $115,997 on the Bitstamp exchange after briefly spiking above the $116,000 level. 

BTC/USD by TradingView 

The decision is in line with market expectations. All major analysts (except for Standard Chartered and Societe Generale) expected the bank to make such a move. 

This is the first rate cut implemented by the Fed since December 2024. 

There was only a 7% chance of a higher rate cut than 25 basis points on the Kalshi prediction market ahead of the decision. 

The Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell previously attracted criticism from high-profile Republicans due to persistent reluctance to make a dovish U-turn with aggressive rate cuts that would boost the economy. 

Facing dilemma 

The Fed will have to make tough choices going forward, given that the job market is becoming considerably weaker while inflation remains stubbornly hot. 

As reported by U.Today, odious financial commentator Peter Schiff previously criticized the idea of implementing a rate cut, arguing in favor of a rate hike. 

Market observers now expect the Fed to implement two more rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2024. 

A dot plot shows that a narrow majority of Fed officials are in favor of a total of three rate cuts this year. Moreover, recent changes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement are dovish. 

September FOMC

*The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps

*A narrow majority of officials pencil in a total of at least 3 cuts this year

*Statement changes are dovish

*Miran is the only dissent, for 50 bps pic.twitter.com/C2mc36bwR6

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 17, 2025

Post-LTCM easing vibes

Notably, the Fed moves to loosen monetary policy when both stocks and gold are hitting record highs.

The fact that the central bank has decided to cut rates while “animal spirits” are rampant is reminiscent of the post-LTCM easing cycle in 1998, according to Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments. 

Back then, the Fed moved to cut rates following the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management to stabilize Wall Street, which galvanized risk-taking. 

“The Greenspan Fed cut rates three times even though the market was strong and there was no recession,” Timmer said. 

It remains to be seen whether a similar rate-cutting spree will take place this time around. 





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Crypto liquidations surpass $900m following Fed Chair's Jackson Hole speech
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Markets await Fed’s first 2025 cut, experts bet “this bull market is not even close to over”

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Will the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025 fuel another leg higher for Bitcoin and equities, or does September’s history point to caution?

Summary

  • The Fed is widely expected to announce its first rate cut of 2025, with markets pricing in a 25bp move.
  • Bitcoin is trading near $116,500 and Ethereum near $4,500, supported by declining exchange balances and record ETF inflows.
  • Historical patterns show September as a weak month for equities and crypto, while tariffs and inflation add fresh macro risks.
  • Anthony Pompliano argues the bull market has much further to run, while other analysts warn of seasonal volatility and short-term pullbacks.

First rate cut of 2025 set against a fragile backdrop

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce its first rate cut of 2025 at the conclusion of its Sep. 16–17 meeting. Markets are pricing in a 25 basis-point reduction, which would bring the federal funds rate down to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%.

A larger 50 basis-point cut is seen as unlikely, but attention will be on the Fed’s updated “dot plot,” which will indicate how many cuts policymakers expect through the rest of 2025 and the likely path of rates into 2026.

The case for easing has been building for months. Job growth has slowed noticeably. In August 2025 nonfarm payrolls rose by only 22,000, one of the weakest monthly gains in years. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2% in July, close to its highest level since 2021.

Housing data points to softer momentum as well. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.39% in early September, its lowest level since October 2024. That decline spurred a pickup in refinancing activity and showed how higher borrowing costs have curbed demand.

Inflation is still above target but shows signs of stabilizing. Consumer prices in August 2025 rose 2.9% year-over-year compared with 2.7% in July, while core inflation held steady at 3.1%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI increased 0.4% and core CPI rose 0.3%.

These figures remain above the Fed’s 2% goal but are well below the peaks of 2022 and 2023, when headline inflation ran above 6%. That gap gives the Fed some room to cut without immediately risking a rebound in price pressures.

These developments shape expectations for how crypto markets may react once the Fed delivers its first cut of the year.

Bitcoin and Ethereum climb as investors bet on easing

Crypto markets have been gradually advancing in the days leading up to the Fed meeting, reflecting expectations of a rate cut.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading close to $116,500, up about 3.5% over the past week and approaching its August peak above $124,000.

Ethereum (ETH) has gained nearly 4% in the same period, trading near $4,500, though it remains more than 9% below its August all-time high of $4,950.

On-chain data shows that the amount of Bitcoin available for immediate sale has been declining. Since Sep. 1, balances on exchanges have dropped from about 2.5 million BTC to 2.45 million. This means more than 50,000 BTC have been moved off exchanges in just over two weeks.

BTC supply on exchanges | Source: CryptoQuant

A year earlier, balances were above 3 million. Current levels mark a sharp drawdown and the lowest on record, suggesting that holders are increasingly transferring assets into private custody and easing near-term selling pressure.

ETF flows point to continued institutional demand. Between Sep. 8 and Sep. 17, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $2.8 billion in net inflows, with every trading day in that period showing positive contributions.

Ethereum ETFs also attracted strong interest, with nearly $1 billion in inflows during the same stretch. On Sep. 15 alone, spot ETH funds pulled in $360 million, surpassing Bitcoin ETFs for the day.

The next stage will hinge on how the Fed matches its rate decision with guidance. A 25 basis point cut paired with signals of more easing could lift sentiment further, with Bitcoin moving closer to $120,000 and Ethereum testing levels above $4,600.

A more guarded message that poses inflation risks or a limited path for cuts could restrain the upside, keeping Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidating while smaller tokens face greater downside pressure.

September’s historic drag meets fresh tariff headwinds

Historical data shows that September has long been one of the weakest months for U.S. equities. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of about −0.68% in September, the lowest of any month in the calendar year.

The index has finished higher in only about 44% of Septembers during that span. The Nasdaq has recorded a slightly better frequency of positive outcomes but still shows a higher chance of losses than other months.

Crypto markets display a similar seasonal pattern. Bitcoin has historically struggled in September, with an average monthly decline of more than 3% since inception.

In many years the monthly low for Bitcoin has occurred within the first 10 days of September, followed by a recovery into the fourth quarter. Market participants often refer to this rebound phase as “Uptober.”

Amid this backdrop, tariff policy remains one of the biggest sources of uncertainty. In 2025 the U.S. has imposed steep levies, including a wide range of tariffs on different countries and products. These measures are feeding inflation by driving up production and input costs.

The Congressional Budget Office has revised its outlook for real GDP growth in 2025 to around 1.4%, down from earlier forecasts closer to 1.9–2.0%.

Rising tariffs and persistent inflation add to macro uncertainty, which often weighs on risk assets such as digital tokens. However, crypto can sometimes benefit in such conditions, as some investors view it as an alternative store of value when traditional markets appear fragile.

Taken together, a mix of inflation surprises, tariff escalation, weaker consumption, and economic challenges could trigger sharper volatility. Isolated shocks, by contrast, may cause short-term swings but are unlikely to disrupt the broader crypto market trend on their own.

Fed cut sparks split in market views

Anthony Pompliano, a well-known crypto investor and co-founder of Pomp Investments, believes the Fed’s rate cut will add fuel to an already strong market.

He points out that the S&P 500 has climbed more than 30% in five months, a move that has occurred only six times since 1975.

“In 100% of these cases, the S&P 500 has ended higher in the following six and 12 months,” he said, noting an average gain of 18% in the year ahead. He added that momentum is firmly intact and “this bull market is not even close to over.”

He also highlighted the unusual backdrop for the Fed’s expected cut. Household net worth rose by $7 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, yet wealth distribution remains heavily skewed, with the top 1% holding far more than the bottom 50%.

Despite these disparities, he emphasized that “asset owners are going to be winners and savers will be losers moving forward.”

In his view, the Fed is behind the curve and should cut by 50 to 75 basis points, but even a smaller move will add liquidity and lift asset prices, from stocks to gold to Bitcoin.

Other analysts, however, are more cautious in the short term. Ted, a crypto market analyst, warns that seasonal factors such as September’s triple witching expiration could add pressure.

September triple witching expiration has been short-term bearish for the S&P 500.

Since 2000, the S&P 500 has averaged a -1.17% return in a week after triple witching expiration.

If this happens again, $BTC could drop 5%-8%, while alts could drop 15%-20%. pic.twitter.com/FvQG3Mw3Cp

— Ted (@TedPillows) September 14, 2025

“Since 2000, the S&P 500 has averaged a -1.17% return in the week after triple witching. If this happens again, Bitcoin could drop 5%-8%, while alts could drop 15%-20%,” he wrote.

For now, structural inflows and Fed easing may keep the broader trend intact, but the near-term window carries elevated volatility risk. A pullback in Bitcoin and sharper corrections in altcoins cannot be ruled out if negative catalysts align. As always, trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.





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Crypto Trends

Here’s What History Says Will Happen a Month and Year After the Fed’s Rate Cut

by admin



In brief

  • The odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve announcing a quarter-point rate cut have skyrocketed to 94.2%, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
  • Experts look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and forward guidance to determine if Bitcoin rallies or triggers a sell-the-news reaction.
  • Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains bullish, with experts forecasting up to $700,000 before 2035.

Cryptocurrency and tradfi investors are on tenterhooks ahead of this week’s rate cut decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which experts say could make or break the long-term bullish trend for risk-on assets such as Bitcoin.

The September 17 interest rate decision is key since it comes at a time when the S&P 500 index, Bitcoin, and gold are at or near all-time highs. The central banks’ dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment is conflicting with core inflation above 3.10% and a weakening labor market, with annual revisions revealing a drop of 911,000 from the initial estimate.

The odds of a 25 basis point rate cut currently hover around 94% per CME’s FedWatch tool. Users of prediction market Myriad, launched by Decrypt’s parent company DASTAN, place an 88% chance on a 25bps rate cut, at time of publication.

Short-term vs long-term impacts

Experts who spoke to Decrypt agreed that a quarter-point rate cut would likely have a long-term bullish impact on risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, but remained indecisive on the event’s imminent impact.

In the short-term, “What Powell says at the briefing will matter more for how the market reacts,” Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, told Decrypt.

Other analysts drew attention to the dot plot, a quarterly chart indicating Fed policymakers’ projections for the short-term interest rate. A rate cut without a meaningful downward revision of the median dot plot could trigger an altcoin pullback due to elevated open interest, Xu Han, director of Liquid Fund at HashKey Capital, told Decrypt. If the dot plot faces an aggressive downward revision, he expects a rally in large and mid-cap altcoins.

The markets anticipating a quarter-point rate cut have led to a resurgence in speculative activity, leading to “stretched valuations across multiple asset classes,” Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making and trading firm Caladan, cautioned Decrypt.

From a short-term perspective, a hawkish surprise from Powell could complicate the Fed’s price stability mandate, Lim added.

Bitcoin’s long-term valuation

While Bitcoin’s one-month returns post rate cut highlight the crypto’s unpredictable nature, Caladan’s three-month estimates reveal a bullish outcome 62% of the time with an average gain of 16.50%.

HashKey Capital estimates Bitcoin will hit $700,000 by the end of 2035, assuming a 10% CAGR in the gold price, pointing to a macro narrative that sees the top crypto playing catch-up with gold in the coming decade.

Capital markets commentary The Kobeissi Letter highlighted risk-on assets’ bullish outlook in the long term, stating that the S&P 500 index has ended up higher a year later when the Fed cuts rates within 2% of the index’s all-time highs, in a Saturday tweet.

“This time around, we expect a similar outcome,” the tweet thread noted, indicating a potential for “immediate-term volatility, but long-term asset owners will party,” supported by interest rate cuts amid rising inflation and the AI Revolution.

The straight-line higher price action seen in gold and Bitcoin reflects the markets pricing in what’s coming, The Kobeissi Letter argued.

While Chung and Han expect at least three quarter-point rate cuts before the end of the year, Lim said a “second 25 basis point cut remains possible, but would require either a material deterioration in labor markets or convincing evidence that inflation is sustainably converging to 2%.”

Bitcoin is down 0.8% over the past 24 hours and is currently trading at just under $115,000, per CoinGecko data.

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S&P 500 One-Month Chart From Google Finance
Crypto Trends

What the Fed’s Sept. 17 Interest Rate Decision Means for Crypto, Gold and Stocks

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Investors are counting down to the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 monetary policy decision; markets expect a quarter-point rate cut that could trigger short-term volatility but potentially fuel longer-term gains across risk assets.

The economic backdrop highlights the Fed’s delicate balancing act.

According to the latest CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting the annual CPI rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July, as shelter, food, and gasoline pushed costs higher. Core CPI also climbed 0.3%, extending its steady pace of recent months.

Producer prices told a similar story: per the latest PPI report released on Wednesday, the headline PPI index slipped 0.1% in August but remained 2.6% higher than a year earlier, while core PPI advanced 2.8%, the largest yearly increase since March. Together, the reports underscore stubborn inflationary pressure even as growth slows.

The labor market has softened further.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August, with federal government and energy sector job losses offsetting modest gains in health care. Unemployment held at 4.3%, while labor force participation remained stuck at 62.3%.

Revisions showed June and July job growth was weaker than initially reported, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum. Average hourly earnings still rose 3.7% year over year, keeping wage pressures alive.

Bond markets have adjusted accordingly. Per data from MarketWatch, 2-year Treasury yield sits at 3.56%, while the 10-year is at 4.07%, leaving the curve modestly inverted. Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.

If the Fed limits its move to just 25 bps, investors may react with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” response, since markets have already priced in relief.

Equities are testing record levels.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,584 after rising 1.6% for the week, its best since early August. The index’s one-month chart shows a strong rebound from its late-August pullback, underscoring bullish sentiment heading into Fed week.

S&P 500 One-Month Chart From Google Finance

The Nasdaq Composite also notched five straight record highs, ending at 22,141, powered by gains in megacap tech stocks, while the Dow slipped below 46,000 but still booked a weekly advance.

Crypto and commodities have rallied alongside.

Bitcoin is trading at $115,234, below its Aug. 14 all-time high near $124,000 but still firmly higher in 2025, with the global crypto market cap now $4.14 trillion.

BTC-USD One-Month Price Chart From CoinDesk Data

Gold has surged to $3,643 per ounce, near record highs, with its one-month chart showing a steady upward trajectory as investors price in lower real yields and seek inflation hedges.

One-Month Gold Price Chart From TradingView

Historical precedent supports the cautious optimism.

Analysis from the Kobeissi Letter — reported in an X thread posted Saturday — citing Carson Research, shows that in 20 of 20 prior cases since 1980 where the Fed cut rates within 2% of S&P 500 all-time highs, the index was higher one year later, averaging gains of nearly 14%.

The shorter term is less predictable: in 11 of those 22 instances, stocks fell in the month following the cut. Kobeissi argues this time could follow a similar pattern — initial turbulence followed by longer-term gains as rate relief amplifies the momentum behind assets like equities, bitcoin and gold.

The broader setup explains why traders are watching the Sept. 17 announcement closely.

Cutting rates while inflation edges higher and stocks hover at records risks denting credibility, yet staying on hold could spook markets that have already priced in easing. Either way, the Fed’s message on growth, inflation, and its policy outlook will likely shape the trajectory of markets for months to come.



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Fed's Waller Pushes for Rate Cut, Impact on Crypto?
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Fed’s Waller Pushes for Rate Cut, Impact on Crypto?

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In a speech in Miami on Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller voiced his support for an interest rate cut in September, saying he would entertain a bigger move if labor market data continues to weaken.

“Based on what I know today, I would support a 25 basis point cut at the Committee’s meeting on September 16 and 17,” Waller said during the speech.

Waller is considered to be on the short list of potential replacements for Fed Chair Jerome Powell next year and was one of two Fed governors to dissent from the July FOMC decision to hold benchmark interest rates steady.

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Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September in his recent address, lifting expectations in the market.

Crypto reversal imminent?

The crypto market saw fresh selling pressure in the early Friday session amid hotter than expected inflation data.

Major cryptocurrencies fell, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 5% to trade near $108,000. XRP, Dogecoin, Stellar (XLM), Shiba Inu, Cardano (ADA) and Chainlink (LINK) reported losses between 4% and 8%.

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Inflation rose in July, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. On the monthly basis, the core PCE index increased 0.3%, in line with expectations. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed uses as its forecasting tool, showed that core inflation ran at a 2.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 0.1 percentage point from June and the highest annual rate since February.

With a target of 2%, the report shows the economy is still a distance from where the Fed feels comfortable. However, markets expect the Fed to resume lowering its benchmark interest rate when policymakers convene next month, which is bullish for cryptocurrencies.



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How Crypto Could Be Impacted by Fed’s Shifting Stance on Inflation in Q4 2025 and Beyond

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Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday at this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium balanced rising inflation risk against a fragile labor market, and the political calendar now raises the odds that his eventual successor will be less cautious on rates.

Powell’s message was deliberately sober.

He said the “effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible” and will keep filtering through with uncertain timing. Headline PCE inflation ran 2.6% in July and core 2.9%, with goods prices flipping from last year’s declines to gains.

He framed the labor market as a “curious kind of balance,” with payroll growth slowing to about 35,000 a month in recent months from 168,000 in 2024 while unemployment sits at 4.2%.

Immigration has cooled, labor force growth has softened and the breakeven pace of hiring needed to keep joblessness steady is lower, which masks fragility. Net-net, he said near-term risks are “tilted to the upside” for inflation and “to the downside” for employment, a mix that argues for care rather than a rapid easing cycle.

He also reset the framework.

The Fed dropped 2020’s “average inflation targeting,” returned to flexible 2% targeting and clarified that employment can run above estimated maximum levels without automatically forcing hikes, but not at the expense of price stability.

He underscored, “We will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem.” Policy is “not on a preset course,” and while September is live, the bar for a fast series of cuts looks high unless the data weakens more.

That macro stance lands inside a new political backdrop that markets cannot ignore. Powell’s current term ends May 15, 2026, and he has said he intends to serve it out. Donald Trump has attacked Powell and calls for lower rates, but legal protections mean a president cannot remove a Fed governor or chair over policy disagreements.

Trump can announce his preferred replacement for Powell well before 2026, giving markets time to price in a chair who is likely to be more dovish and tolerant of growth risk than Powell. That looming shift matters for how the path of rates evolves into 2026, even if the next few FOMC meetings remain data dependent.

Political tension surfaced again on Friday when Trump publicly threatened to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud if she did not resign. Like Powell, governors have strong protections and can only be removed for cause. Markets read this less as an immediate governance threat and more as a sign that personnel pressure on the Fed could grow, increasing uncertainty around future leadership and communication.

What this means for U.S. Treasurys

The speech points to a slower, shallower easing path in the fourth quarter of 2025 unless inflation retreats convincingly. Tariff pass-through keeps goods prices sticky while services ease only gradually, which argues for front-end yields staying firm and the curve steepening only if growth data weakens.

A future, less cautious chair could compress term premiums later by signaling a quicker path to neutral, but between now and then rate volatility stays high and rallies are data-led rather than policy-led.

What this means for U.S. equities

A careful Fed supports the soft-landing narrative but not a quick multiple expansion. Earnings growth can carry benchmarks, yet rate-sensitive growth stocks remain vulnerable to upside surprises in inflation or wages that push cuts further out.

If markets begin to price a chair who is more willing to ease into a warm inflation backdrop, cyclicals and small caps could catch a bid, but credibility risk rises if inflation expectations drift. For now, equities trade the gaps between each inflation print, payrolls update and Fed communication.

What this means for crypto

Crypto lives at the intersection of liquidity and the inflation story. A higher-for-longer stance curbs speculative flows into altcoins and crypto-related equities like miners, exchanges and treasury-heavy firms because funding costs stay elevated and risk budgets tight.

At the same time, sustained inflation above target keeps the hard-asset narrative alive and supports demand for assets with scarcity or settlement finality. That combination favors bitcoin and large-cap, cash-flow-supported tokens over long-duration, storytelling-heavy projects until the Fed signals more conviction on cuts.

If a successor chair in 2026 is perceived as less cautious, the liquidity cycle could turn more decisively in crypto’s favor, but the price to get there is more volatility as traders handicap leadership, Senate confirmation and the data.

Why the path matters more than the first cut

Even if the Fed trims rates in September, as it now seems highly likely, Powell’s framing implies a glidepath paced by inflation expectations, not market hope. Housing transmission is muted by mortgage lock-in, so small cuts may not unlock growth quickly.

Global easing elsewhere adds a marginal liquidity tailwind, yet the dollar’s path and term premiums will hinge on whether U.S. inflation behaves like a one-time tariff shock or a stickier process. In the former case, crypto breadth can improve and risk can rotate beyond bellwethers; in the latter, leadership stays narrow and rallies fade on hot data.

The 2026 wildcard

Markets now must price a two-stage regime: Powell’s cautious data-driven stance through 2025, then the possibility of a chair chosen by Trump who is less patient with above-target inflation if growth weakens, or more willing to accept inflation risk to support activity. Appointment constraints and Senate confirmation are real, so a wholesale pivot is not automatic, but the distribution of outcomes broadens.

For Treasurys that can mean fatter term premiums until leadership is known; for equities it can mean rotation and factor churn; for crypto it can mean a stronger medium-term liquidity story paired with choppier near-term trading.

Bottom line

Powell asked for time and data as tariffs lift prices and the jobs engine downshifts. Markets now have to trade that caution through the fourth quarter of 2025 while also discounting the realistic chance of a less cautious Fed chair in 2026.

That two-step makes the next year a test of patience in Treasurys, a grind in stocks and a volatility trade in crypto — with the payoff determined by whether inflation proves transitory enough for this Fed to cut, or persistent enough that the next one chooses to.



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Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Options Traders Split Ahead of Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting

by admin



In brief

  • Options data indicates that Bitcoin traders are split, with nearly equal bullish and bearish block trades.
  • Experts suggest markets will be closely watching for Powell’s tone if there’s no clear decision surrounding rate cuts.
  • They also said crypto’s bullish market structure remains intact in the long term.

Bitcoin traders are entering a high-stakes standoff ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. 

With conflicting macroeconomic signals and mixed investor sentiment, the directional bias remains unclear for U.S. equities and crypto.

The July CPI report, delivered earlier this month, provided a bullish signal with rate cut hopes, prompting a crypto market rally that pushed Bitcoin to an all-time high in the first two weeks of August. 



Subsequent PPI data release, however, has elevated inflation concerns, further aggravating ambiguity over whether the Fed intends to cut rates this year, including next month.

Bitcoin has dropped from 8% from its August 14 all-time high of around $124,128 to $114,170 following a sharp decline over the past seven days, CoinGecko data shows.

Despite Bitcoin being near record highs, “the market is pricing in roughly an 85% chance of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting,” John Haar, managing director at Swan Bitcoin, told Decrypt.

“Powell is likely to keep his comments relatively neutral in order to keep his options open,” Harr added.

To cut or not to cut, that is Powell’s question

While bond traders remain adamant that a cut will arrive in September, the uncertainty has led to a split in investor expectations and betting in the derivatives market.

The “block bullish and bearish trades were nearly equal,” Adam Chu, Chief researcher at GreeksLive, an options trading platform, told Decypt. 

Even with marked trading volume, “short-term implied volatility declined,” Adam said, indicating “institutional investors are not very optimistic that this meeting will bring about significant volatility.”

In any case, the market’s reaction hinges on Powell’s tone. 

“It’s clear that many investors are hoping for a rate cut,” James Gernetzke, CFO at Exodus, told Decrypt.

Gernetzke believes that while a rate decision may not become clear until future data is released, investors should still “take note of his tone—this will matter just as much as the specifics.”

“Bitcoin and crypto assets are sensitive to global liquidity conditions and should respond favorably to any further signal the Fed will continue on its dovish path,” Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, told Decrypt.

A hawkish tone, however, could spark a renewed sell-off in equities and crypto. 

But Gernetzke also offered a nuanced view, noting that this crypto market cycle is “atypical due to regulatory tailwinds” and institutional adoption, which “could soften the blow of a hawkish Powell.” 

O’Shea echoed that sentiment, arguing that any negative near-term decision on rates wouldn’t impact the long-term investment case for crypto, supported by institutional adoption and favorable policy from the White House.

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