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Fed Rate Social Media Mentions Surge Is A Red Flag For Crypto
Crypto Trends

Fed Rate Social Media Mentions Surge Is A Red Flag For Crypto

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The surge in social media chatter around the highly anticipated US Federal Reserve September interest rate decision could be a warning sign for crypto, says sentiment platform Santiment.

It comes after the crypto market rallied on Friday and market sentiment returned to greed following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium. He hinted that the first rate cut of 2025 could come in September.

“Historically, such a massive spike in discussion around a single bullish narrative can indicate that euphoria is getting too high and may signal a local top,” Santiment said in a report on Saturday. The firm said that social media mentions of keywords tied to the Fed and interest rate cuts have jumped to their highest level in 11 months.

Santiment urges caution as analysts are divided

“While optimism about a rate cut is fueling the market, social data suggests caution is warranted,” Santiment said. 

Santiment has detected an increase in mentions of the keywords: Fed, rate, cut, and Powell. Source: Santiment

Powell said during his speech on Friday that current conditions in inflation and the labor market “may warrant adjusting” the Fed’s monetary policy stance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 75% of market participants expect a rate cut at the September meeting.

Many crypto analysts have based their crypto market forecasts on the Fed’s decisions throughout this year. While some see a rate cut as a potential bullish catalyst, others are divided on the outcome.

Source: Coinbase Institutional

After Powell’s speech, crypto trader Ash Crypto said, “the Fed will start the money printers in Q4 of this year,” along with two rate cuts, which means “trillions will flow into the crypto market.”

“We are about to enter parabolic phase where Altcoins will explode 10x -50x,” Ash Crypto said.

Analyst warns crypto may face short-term pressure

Others suggest that the crypto market may not immediately see the impact of a Fed rate cut.

On April 11, 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen said, “Expecting a bullish impulse is too early.” He said that while a longer-term price opportunity for Bitcoin (BTC) could emerge, it may face short-term pressure driven by recession fears.

Related: BTC climbed to 1.7% of global money before Fed chair signaled rate cut

Meanwhile, some say that if the Fed takes no action this year, it could lead to headwinds for the crypto market.

On March 9, network economist Timothy Peterson warned that if the Fed holds off on rate cuts in 2025, it may cause a broader crypto market downturn.

Magazine: Can privacy survive in US crypto policy after Roman Storm’s conviction?



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Crypto Booms as Fed Goes Dovish: Here’s What It Means for Ethereum, Solana and Dogecoin

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In brief

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell went much more dovish than expected at Jackson Hole, sending stocks up 2% and crypto markets higher.
  • Altcoins are outpacing Bitcoin, with Dogecoin and Solana showing increasingly bullish signs.
  • But today, all eyes are on Ethereum, which is inching closer to breaking its 2021 all-time high.

Crypto markets have come alive following dovish remarks today from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed chairman opened the door to interest rate cuts during a speech at Jackson Hole, which both traditional and crypto markets had been eagerly awaiting—though not necessarily expecting.

Crypto climbed back above the $4 trillion mark and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped as much as 900 points, up to 2% on the day, after Powell suggested interest rate cuts could be on the way. The synchronized risk-on rally across both traditional and digital assets happens after weeks of consolidation, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.68% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rising 2.1%.

Powell’s keynote at the annual symposium struck a more dovish tone than markets anticipated. “Downside risks to employment are rising,” Powell said. “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”



The comments effectively confirmed market expectations for a September rate cut—the first during President Donald Trump’s second term—sending risk assets soaring. Why? Lower interest rates means cheaper money, and that normally translates into more dollars being relocated from safer, yield-earnings investments into riskier bets, such as stocks and crypto.

Meanwhile, oil prices climbed 4% this week to $76.45 as Middle East tensions escalate. Crypto markets, though, appear unfazed by the geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin spiked 3.5% today to its current price above $116,000. But, as is often the case, when Bitcoin jumps, lower liquidity altcoins get sent much higher.

Ethereum is currently up more than 12% on the day, teasing traders with a potential break above its all-time high price of $4,878—a record that’s held since November 2021. But it’s not just ETH either: Dogecoin and Solana, two of the biggest altcoins in the market, are also experiencing impressive gains.

Here’s what the charts have to say about it:

Dogecoin (DOGE) price: Return of the meme king

Dogecoin has rallied 9% to $0.23 over the past 24 hours, significantly outperforming Bitcoin’s modest gains. DOGE now sits comfortably in the top 10 coins by market capitalization, with a total value of more than $35 billion.

Besides the typical overreaction to the broader market movement, the surge comes amid a whale accumulation of over 680 million DOGE (worth $157 million) in August, with technical indicators suggesting more upside ahead.

Dogecoin price data. Image: Tradingview

Dogecoin is still in the symmetrical triangle keeping prices in a compression phase since July. Today’s spike could be interpreted as an expected bounce from the triangle’s support—with some room for continuation until a decisive breakout.

If the pattern holds, expect lower highs and higher lows for at least a few more days.

The coin’s Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sits at 55. RSI measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, where readings above 70 indicate overbought conditions and below 30 suggest oversold. At 55, DOGE has room to run before hitting levels where traders typically take profits, signaling healthy buying pressure without excessive speculation.

DOGE’s Average Directional Index, or ADX, is at 15. This confirms the behavior inside a triangle, with very low momentum in either direction. This indicator measures trend strength on a scale where readings above 25 confirm a strong trend, and below 20 suggests no clear direction. DOGE’s low ADX reading indicates the recent bearish correction is weakening—think of it as the selling pressure running out of steam—potentially setting up for a trend reversal if buyers step in with conviction.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (the average price over the last 50 days) provides support around $0.20—basically today’s starting price—while the 200-day EMA sits at approximately $0.18. When the current price trades above both these levels, as DOGE currently does, it typically signals a bullish market. The coin recently entered into a “golden cross” formation, which experienced traders typically interpret as decisively bullish. But the gap between the EMAs is so slow, it’d be hard for most traders to expect a flight to the moon any time soon. The more likely interpretation is something closer to “it’s not dumping anymore.”

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows “on” status and aligns with the other indicators, suggesting volatility is building after a period of compression. When this indicator fires, it often precedes explosive moves as the market breaks out of its trading range. Combine this with whale accumulation and ETF speculation—and the fact that the tail before the triangle is bullish—and you’ve got a setup that may please bull traders.

Key Levels:

  • Immediate support: $0.21 (recent bounce level)
  • Strong support: $0.20 (50-day EMA)
  • Immediate resistance: $0.24 (triangle resistance)
  • Strong resistance: $0.30 (major target, decisive bullish breakout)

Solana (SOL) price: The “Ethereum killer” flexes

Solana posted an impressive 8.99% gain to $196.53, with trading volume exploding to $3.8 billion—nearly double the daily average. SOL now sits just outside the top 5 coins by market cap, valued at over $105 billion.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that the coin’s bullish spike also coincides with Kanye West’s YZY meme coin launching on Solana late last night. Ye’s meme briefly hit a $3 billion market cap before settling at $1.5 billion, stress-testing the network’s capacity for on-chain volume.

Solana price data. Image: Tradingview

Whether Solana bulls should be thanking Powell or Ye (it’s Powell, let’s be real), there’s no doubt sentiment on SOL is shifting. On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, the odds of Solana hitting an all-time high price of $294.33 before the end of year spiked today by more than 10%. The odds, though, still favor the bears, but they’re narrowing: Myriad users currently give SOL a 44.4% chance of breaking its record.



The charts seem to line up with the shifting view.

Solana’s ADX is now at 27, crossing above the crucial 25 threshold that confirms trend establishment. SOL’s reading suggests the recent uptrend has legs, with momentum building rather than exhausting.

SOL’s RSI at 58 sits in what traders call the “sweet spot”—strong enough to show genuine buying interest, but well below the 70 level where profit-taking typically emerges. This positioning allows for another 20-30% upside before reaching historically overbought conditions where corrections often occur.

The 50-day EMA at $166 provided crucial support during the recent dip, with its current price now trading comfortably above that mark at $196. The 200-day EMA further below at $160 creates a safety net of support levels. This expanding gap between moving averages—with the faster 50-day pulling away from the slower 200-day—typically occurs during sustained uptrends and gives buyers multiple entry points on any pullbacks.

The coin also recently entered into a golden cross. But unlike DOGE, the EMA’s here are drifting apart. This shows that bullish momentum, while slow, is building up.

Key Levels:

  • Immediate support: $180 (breakout level)
  • Strong support: $166 (50-day EMA)
  • Immediate resistance: $210 (July highs)
  • Strong resistance: $250 (psychological target)

Ethereum (ETH) price: Altcoin king roars

Ethereum, the king of altcoins, protector of decentralized smart-contracting “world computers,” and first of its name, is today smiling atop its throne. ETH is on fire.

Even after yesterday’s losses, today the king of altcoins led crypto majors with a commanding 12.16% surge above $4,700, briefly touching $4,830, and approaching its 2021 all-time high of $4,878.

Ethereum price data. Image: Tradingview

The ADX at 41 signals extremely powerful momentum—readings above 40 indicate a power trend where corrections tend to be shallow and brief. Historical data shows ETH can sustain ADX readings above 40 for weeks during major rallies. And prices are well over any statistical support—which can be a damocles sword as it makes sharp drops just as likely as unusually bullish moves.

RSI at 65 approaches but hasn’t reached the 70 overbought threshold. In strong uptrends, RSI can remain between 50-70 for extended periods—this is called “embedded RSI.”

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator also suggests the explosive move has already been released from the recent compression phase. This often marks a trending period where momentum remains stable, so it can be a safe bet for bulls.



What are prediction markets saying? We’re so glad you asked. On Myriad, the odds of ETH hitting $5,000, well above its 2021 all-time high, have soared to 89%, rocketing up by more than 17% since yesterday. A separate market has Ethereum hitting a new all-time this year as a near-lock at 94%.

Key Levels:

  • Immediate support: $4,500 (psychological level)
  • Strong support: $3,757 (50-day EMA)
  • Immediate resistance: $4,866 (all-time high)
  • Strong resistance: $5,500 (measured move target)

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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'New Dawn': Ripple CEO Reacts to Fed Governors Embracing Crypto
Crypto Trends

‘New Dawn’: Ripple CEO Reacts to Fed Governors Embracing Crypto

by admin


  • Fed governors embracing crypto 
  • “New dawn” for Ripple

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has commented on how rapidly attitudes toward crypto have changed over the past year, describing such a drastic shift as “a new dawn.”

Garlinghouse claims that discussions at this year’s SALT 2025 investment conference feel very dramatically different, with regulators and policymakers being more open to the nascent asset class. 

While many attendees at SALT have been in crypto for a long time, the change in tone (on-stage, 1-1 convos) from even a year ago is dramatic and very palpable.
I don’t think many of us had “multiple Fed governors publicly embracing crypto technology” on our bingo cards…a new… https://t.co/5dwLNZKdIe

— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) August 22, 2025

Fed governors embracing crypto 

The Ripple boss has noted that even Federal Reserve governors are now embracing crypto, which is a very surprising development for him personally. 

Governor Michelle Bowman, for instance, has argued that regulators should abandon their overly cautious mindset toward digital assets. 

Instead, they should opt for a proactive approach that would make it possible to foster innovation. 

As reported by U.Today, the Fed recently ditched its cryptocurrency-focused supervision program, which is another step toward legitimizing cryptocurrencies. 

Governor Christopher Waller also insisted that such innovative technologies as tokenization and smart contracts are not, in fact, scary. 

“New dawn” for Ripple

It is also a new dawn for Ripple in particular, considering that the legal battle between the enterprise blockchain company and the SEC is finally over. 

As reported by U.Today, the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit put a definitive end to the case earlier today. 





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NFT Gaming

DOGE Surges 5% Amid Trump-Affiliated Dogecoin Mining Deal and Fed Comments

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Dogecoin rallied on Tuesday after a string of regulatory and corporate catalysts shifted sentiment across the crypto sector. A $50 million Trump-linked acquisition of a DOGE mining firm, Wyoming’s launch of a state-backed stablecoin, and comments from Federal Reserve officials signaling a softer stance on digital assets all converged to trigger fresh institutional flows.

News Background

• Thumzup, a Trump-affiliated entity, acquired Dogehash for $50 million, creating what executives described as the largest DOGE mining operation. The deal signals deep-pocketed confidence in Dogecoin infrastructure.
• Wyoming unveiled the Frontier Stable Token, the first government-backed state stablecoin, reinforcing the U.S. regulatory pivot toward digital assets.
• Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman warned banks about competitive risks from delaying digital asset adoption, signaling a more crypto-accommodative posture.
• SoFi Technologies integrated Bitcoin’s Lightning Network, targeting the $740 billion remittance market — another signal of traditional finance edging deeper into crypto rails.

Price Action Summary

• DOGE traded in a $0.01 band from $0.21 to $0.22 between Aug. 20 15:00 and Aug. 21 14:00, marking ~4–5% intraday volatility.
• The token rallied 5% from $0.21 to $0.22 during the Aug. 20 evening session, establishing $0.22 as near-term resistance.
• A late-session 60-minute window (Aug. 21 13:22–14:21) saw DOGE surge 1% from $0.22 to $0.22 with volume spikes above 61.8 million, confirming institutional activity.
• Support consistently held in the $0.21–$0.22 zone with bounces on 320–380 million volume across key testing points.

Technical Analysis

• Support: $0.21–$0.22 established as reliable floor with repeated high-volume retests.
• Resistance: $0.22 key pivot cleared, but bulls need follow-through toward $0.225 to confirm breakout.
• Volume: Peak surges of 61.8 million and 378.6 million confirm institutional buying interest.
• Pattern: Classic consolidation followed by impulsive breakout; upward trajectory if support base holds.
• Futures OI: Stable around $3 billion, reflecting sustained leveraged interest despite macro volatility.

What Traders Are Watching

• Whether DOGE can sustain above the $0.22 pivot and push toward $0.225–$0.23 resistance.
• The market’s reaction to Fed policy shifts and Wyoming’s stablecoin launch — potential sector-wide tailwind.
• Whale accumulation patterns, already totaling 2 billion DOGE ($500M) this week.
• Mining sector expansion via Thumzup’s acquisition and its impact on DOGE’s hashpower distribution.



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Further Decline on Fed Hawkishness
GameFi Guides

Further Decline on Fed Hawkishness

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Markets are quickly recalibrating previously lofty odds of an imminent rate cut as the jets touch down in Jackson Hole for the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Symposium.

The current data does not make the case for a September ease, said Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, speaking with Yahoo News in Wyoming.

“We have inflation that’s too high and has been trending upwards over the past year,” she said. “If the meeting was tomorrow, I would not see a case for reducing interest rates.”

She further argued that inflation numbers are only beginning to show the impact of tariffs and that the full effect wouldn’t be seen until next year.

Hammack’s comments are notable, showing Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to have plenty of support in his hawkish stance despite two dissident dovish votes at the last central bank policy meeting and President Trump’s continuing campaign for lower rates.

Her remarks also come after a series of potential Powell replacements appeared on the airwaves in recent days to argue for sharply lower interest rates. The latest this morning was former St. Louis Fed boss Jim Bullard, who argued for policy rates 100 basis points below the current level.

Just one week ago, bitcoin touched a record high above $124,000 alongside a nearly 100% expectation that the Fed would trim rates next month. Seven days later, those odds have slipped back to 71%, according to CME FedWatch and bitcoin BTC$112,413.52 has plunged nearly 10% to the current $112,800.

Markets will get to hear from Powell himself at his keynote address on Friday morning and at this point it’s nearly certain he’ll not turn dove. Instead, he’s likely to emphasize that inflation continues to remain too hot and thus the need to take a wait and see approach towards adjusting monetary policy.



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Fed Official Says Staff Should Be Allowed To Hold Crypto
Crypto Trends

Fed Official Says Staff Should Be Allowed To Hold Crypto

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The Federal Reserve’s top regulatory official says staff from the US central bank should be allowed to invest a small amount in crypto to help them understand the technology.

Fed vice chair for supervision Michelle Bowman said at a blockchain event in Wyoming on Tuesday that the regulator should consider allowing its staff “to hold de minimus amounts of crypto or other types of digital assets so they can achieve a working understanding of the underlying functionality.”

“We will soon be establishing a framework for supervising issuers of these assets,” she added.

“There’s no replacement for experimenting and understanding how that ownership and transfer process flows.”

Currently, most Fed staffers and their spouses are barred from owning crypto or products that concentrate on crypto, such as exchange-traded funds or shares in crypto companies.

The Fed tightened its rules on all investments in early 2022 after it was revealed that three top officials had unusual trading activity in 2020, as the regulator took action to support the US economy in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Allowing crypto could help recruitment, rulemaking 

Bowman said the Fed staff investment restrictions “may be a barrier to recruiting and retaining examiners with the necessary expertise,” and easing the rules would help existing staff better understand the technology.

Michelle Bowman giving prepared remarks at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 on Tuesday. Source: YouTube“I certainly wouldn’t trust someone to teach me to ski if they’d never put on skis, regardless of how many books and articles they have read, or even wrote, about it.”

Bowman urges Fed not to “stand still”

In her speech, Bowman said bank regulators had an “overly cautious mindset” and urged them to be less skeptical of new financial products and “recognize the utility and necessity of embracing technology in the traditional financial sector.”

She said some bankers are concerned that blockchain technology threatens traditional business models, but that technology could “change the banking system regardless of how banks and regulators choose to respond.”

“We must choose whether to embrace the change and help shape a framework that will be reliable and durable — ensuring safety and soundness and incorporating the benefits of both efficiency and speed — or to stand still and allow new technology to bypass the traditional banking system altogether,” she added. 

“From a regulator’s perspective, the choice is clear.”

Related: New crypto advocacy group debuts at Wyoming summit

Bowman said she recognized the risks in adopting new technology, but those could be offset or “at least determined to be manageable when we recognize and consider the potentially extensive benefits of new technology.”

Trump’s crypto-friendly push

Bowman didn’t specify the types of crypto products or what amounts she would suggest the Fed allow, but her comments are the latest crypto-friendly remarks regulators have taken under the Trump administration.

On Friday, the Fed said it would end a supervision program for crypto and blockchain-related activities undertaken by banks, which the Biden administration set up in 2023.

Trump also signed an executive order earlier this month directing banking regulators to investigate claims of debanking made by the crypto sector and conservatives.

Trade Secrets: Ether could ‘rip like 2021’ as SOL traders brace for 10% drop 



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Crypto Trends

8 Reasons Why the Fed Might Not Want to Cut Rates in September

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Cryptocurrencies and related stocks extended losses Tuesday as traders braced for the release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

Bitcoin dropped 3.2% in the past 24 hours to slip below $114,000, while ether fell 5.3% to under $4,200. XRP tumbled 6.2%, Cardano’s ADA slid 8% and the broader crypto market was down 3.2%.

Shares of crypto-related companies, such as bitcoin miners, crypto exchanges and digital asset treasury firms, suffered even bigger losses, with MARA, COIN and MSTR closing today’s regular session down 5.7%, 5.8% and 7.4%, respectively.

By contrast, in general, U.S. equities suffered less: the Dow ended flat, the S&P 500 fell 0.59%, and the Nasdaq slid about 1.5%. The disparity underscores how digital assets, which rely heavily on cheap liquidity, are more exposed to shifts in rate expectations than traditional stocks.

Investors now face a pivotal macro catalyst-heavy week.

On Aug. 20 at 2 p.m. ET, the Fed will release minutes from the FOMC meeting held July 29–30, offering insight into policymakers’ tariff and inflation debates. From Aug. 21–23, central bankers gather for the Jackson Hole symposium, with Powell’s keynote set for Aug. 22 at 10 a.m. ET. Together, the minutes and Powell’s speech could define market expectations for the September policy meeting.

Here are some top macro highlights traders will likely watch this week to gauge how the Fed will react during next month’s meeting.

Tariffs’ delayed bite

Many companies have absorbed tariff costs to protect market share, but analysts warn they cannot do so indefinitely. Once passed on to consumers, these costs could drive prices higher and force the Fed to wait before cutting.

Sticky inflation data

Despite some cooling, inflation gauges remain elevated. The producer price index, a key wholesale measure, has been hotter than forecast, suggesting persistent pressures that complicate any case for aggressive easing.

Corporate limits

U.S. executives have signaled they will eventually be forced to shift tariff costs downstream. If that happens, consumer inflation could accelerate in the coming months, making a September cut seem premature.

Mixed economic signals

The U.S. economy shows both slowing job growth and resilient consumer demand. This uneven picture could encourage Powell to argue for patience until the Fed has clearer evidence that growth can withstand tariff-driven costs.

Policy uncertainty

Tariffs intersect with fiscal and trade policies in unpredictable ways. That complexity increases the risk of missteps, making a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole more likely.

Lessons from history

The tariff shocks of 2018–2019 produced delayed but meaningful inflation, prompting Fed caution. Powell may draw on that precedent to justify holding back this time.

Forward-looking indicators

The upcoming release of fresh economic data, including Thursday’s release of preliminary August data on manufacturing and services activity, could show tariff-related cost pressures building. Powell could point to these as another reason for prudence.

Internal divisions

Minutes from the July FOMC meeting may reveal a split inside the Fed. With hawks focused on inflation and doves emphasizing jobs, Powell may stress the need for consensus, which often favors waiting.

For crypto, the stakes are clear. Higher-for-longer rates curb the liquidity that fuels speculative rallies, raising financing costs for miners and weighing on exchange activity. If Powell signals caution, the sell-off in tokens and crypto-linked equities could deepen. A dovish surprise, however, might offer the spark for a rebound.



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Bitcoin Will Win From Fed Rate Cut Delay Or Confirmation
Crypto Trends

Bitcoin Will Win From Fed Rate Cut Delay Or Confirmation

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Key takeaways:

  • President Donald Trump’s push for aggressive interest rate cuts could trigger a surge in inflation, weaken the dollar, and destabilize long-term bond markets.

  • Even without rate cuts, trade policy and fiscal expansion are likely to push prices higher.

  • Bitcoin stands to benefit either way—whether as an inflation hedge in a rapid-cut environment, or as a slow-burn store of value as US macro credibility quietly erodes.

The US economy may be growing on paper, but the underlying stress is increasingly difficult to ignore — a tension now in sharp focus at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium. The US dollar is down over 10% since January, core PCE inflation is stuck at 2.8% and the July PPI surged 0.9%, tripling expectations.

Against this backdrop, 10-year Treasury yields holding at 4.33% look increasingly uneasy against a $37 trillion debt load. The question of interest rates has moved to the center of national economic debate.

President Donald Trump is now openly pressuring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates by as much as 300 basis points, pushing them down to 1.25-1.5%. If the Fed complies, the economy will be flooded with cheap money, risk assets will surge, and inflation will accelerate. If the Fed resists, the effects of rising tariffs and the fiscal shock from Trump’s newly passed Big Beautiful Bill could still push inflation higher.

In either case, the US appears locked into an inflationary path. The only difference is the speed and violence of the adjustment, and what it would mean for Bitcoin price.

What if Trump forces the Fed to cut?

Should the Fed bow to political pressure starting as early as September or October, the consequences would likely unfold rapidly.

Core PCE inflation could climb from the current 2.8% to above 4% in 2026 (for context, post-COVID rate cuts and stimulus pushed core PCE to a peak of 5.3% in February 2022). A renewed inflation surge would likely drag the dollar down even further, possibly sending the DXY below 90.

US Core PCE index, 1-month. Source: TradingEconomics

Monetary easing would briefly lower Treasury yields to around 4%, but as inflation expectations rise and foreign buyers retreat, yields could surge beyond 5.5%. According to the Financial Times, many strategists warn that such a spike could break the bull market altogether.

Higher yields would have immediate fiscal consequences. Interest payments on US debt could rise from around $1.4 trillion to as much as $2 trillion—roughly 6% of GDP—by 2026, triggering a debt servicing crisis and putting further pressure on the dollar. 

More dangerous still is the potential politicization of the Fed. If Trump finds a way to force Powell out and appoint a more compliant chair, markets could lose faith in the independence of US monetary policy. As FT columnist Rana Foroohar wrote:

“There’s a huge body of research to show that when you undermine the rule of law the way the president is doing with these unwarranted threats to Powell, you ultimately raise, not lower, the cost of borrowing and curb investment into your economy.”

She cited Turkey as a cautionary tale, where a central bank purge led to market collapse and 35% inflation.

If the Fed holds steady

Maintaining policy rates may seem like the responsible option, and it would help preserve the Fed’s institutional credibility. But it won’t spare the economy from inflation.

Indeed, two forces are already pushing prices higher: the tariffs and the Big Beautiful Bill.

Tariff effects are already visible in key economic indicators. The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI rose to 54.6 in July, the highest since December, while input prices for services jumped from 59.7 to 61.4. Nearly two-thirds of manufacturers in the S&P Global survey attributed higher costs to tariffs. As Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global, said:

“The rise in selling prices for goods and services in July, which was one of the largest seen over the past three years, suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Fed’s 2% target.” 

The effects of the Big Beautiful Bill are yet to be felt, but warnings are already mounting over its combination of increased spending and sweeping tax cuts. At the beginning of July, the IMF stated that the bill “runs counter to reducing federal debt over the medium term” and its deficit‑increasing measures risk destabilizing public finances.

In this scenario, even without immediate rate cuts, core PCE inflation may drift up to 3.0–3.2%. Yields on 10-year Treasurys would likely rise more gradually, reaching 4.7% by next summer. Debt servicing costs would still climb to an estimated $1.6 trillion, or 4.5% of GDP, elevated but not yet catastrophic. DXY could continue plummeting, with Morgan Stanley predicting that it could go as low as 91 by mid‑2026.

Market yield on US 10-year bonds. Source: St.Louis Fed

Even in this more measured outcome, the Fed doesn’t emerge unscathed. The debate over tariffs is dividing policymakers. For instance, Governor Chris Waller, seen as a possible new Fed Chair, supports rate cuts. Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman recently warned that such splits within the FOMC could devolve into politically motivated blocs, weakening the Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve and eventually steepening the yield curve.

Related: Bitcoin won’t go below $100K ‘this cycle’ as $145K target remains: Analyst

The impact of macro on Bitcoin

In the first scenario—sharp cuts, high inflation, and a collapsing dollar—Bitcoin would likely surge immediately alongside stocks and gold. With real interest rates negative and Fed independence in question, crypto could become a preferred store of value.

In the second scenario, the rally would be slower. Bitcoin might trade sideways until the end of 2025, until inflation expectations catch up with reality next year. However, as the dollar continues to weaken and deficits accumulate, non-sovereign assets will gradually gain appeal. Bitcoin’s value proposition would solidify not as a tech bet, but as a hedge against systemic risk.

Expectations for a rate cut continue to rise, but whether or not the Fed complies in the fall or stands firm, the US is on a collision course with inflation. Trump’s aggressive fiscal stimulus and trade policy ensure that upward price pressure is already baked into the system. Whether the Fed cuts rates soon or not, the path ahead may be rough for the dollar and long-term debt, and Bitcoin isn’t just along for the ride—it may be the only vehicle built for this road.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.



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