Tag:

Fed

Solana Steals the Spotlight as Fed Rate Cut Nears: Crypto Daybook Americas

by admin September 16, 2025

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Suddenly, it’s all about Ethereum rival Solana and its native token SOL as the broader market holds its breath ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate decision.

Michael Novogratz, the founder and CEO of Galaxy Investment, says Solana could evolve to become a settlement infrastructure in global finance. Why? Because the blockchain can handle over 6 billion transactions a day, which is way higher than the 400 million-700 million trades global securities markets usually deal with, he said. Speed matters.

At BaseCamp 2025, Coinbase’s layer-2 network hinted at plans for a token launch that could accelerate decentralization and unveiled a Solana bridge to boost cross-chain connectivity. Pantera Capital’s Dan Morehead announced that Solana is their largest bet, valued at $1.1 billion, calling it the fastest and best-performing blockchain, which has outpaced even Bitcoin over the past four years.

If that’s not enough, Kyle Samani, chairman of Nasdaq-listed Solana treasury company Forward Industries, said over the weekend that the company plans to deploy funds to boost the Solana-native decentralized finance ecosystem.

All these signs suggest SOL could outperform bitcoin BTC$115,406.46, ether (ETH) and other major tokens if the Fed cuts rates by the 25 basis points this week, as expected. If it surprises with a 50-basis-point move, things could get wild. Keep your eyes on those SOL/BTC and SOL/ETH trading pairs.

Currently, SOL is trading around $235 after peaking near $250 over the weekend. Other major cryptocurrencies are stuck in neutral, trailing behind stocks, which continue to hit fresh highs.

On the stablecoin front, the Bank of England proposed limits on how the value of dollar-backed stablecoins an individual can hold, as low as 10,000 pounds ($13,600), citing systemic risks. Stani Kulechov, Aave’s CEO, called the move “absurd” and urged the crypto community to stand up against such regulations.

More countries, especially those with current account deficits, will likely consider similar measures to curb outflows that dodge traditional banks.

And as for the traditional markets, Monday’s mix of rising stocks and the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, has some observers raising their eyebrows. History shows these moments often precede market corrections, so stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto
- Sept. 16, 12 p.m.: Solana Live event on X. Guests include Pump.fun co-founder Alon Cohen and Kyle Samani, chairman of Forward Industries (FORD) and the managing partner of Multicoin Capital.
Macro
- Sept. 16, 8 a.m.: Brazil July unemployment rate Est. 5.7%.
- Sept. 16, 8:30 a.m.: Canada August headline CPI YoY Est. 2%, MoM Est. 0%; core YoY Est. N/A (Prev. 2.6%), MoM Est. N/A (Prev. 0.1%).
- Sept. 16, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August retail sales YoY Est. N/A (Prev. 3.9%), MoM Est. 0.3%.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

Governance votes & calls
- Curve DAO is voting to update donation-enabled Twocrypto contracts, refining donation vesting so unlocked portions persist after burns. Voting ends Sept. 16.
- Sept. 16: Aster Network to host a community call.
- Sept. 18, 6 a.m.: Mantle to host Mantle State of Mind, a monthly downhill series.
- Sept. 16, 12 p.m.: Kava to host a community Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
Unlocks
- Sept. 16: Arbitrum ARB$0.4921 to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $45.92 million.
Token Launches
- Sept. 16: Merlin (MRLN) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, BitMart, Gate.io, and others.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

As the crypto market stays within a tight range after a brief peak and trough on Monday, one token is running its own race: IMX is up 15% in the past 24 hours with daily trading volume doubling to $144 million.
The rise lifted IMX, the native token of Web3 gaming platform Immutable, to a five-month high.
Bullish sentiment around Immutable can be attributed to an SEC probe that was dropped earlier this year and general optimism around the gaming sector. Gaming is estimated to reach $200 billion in revenue this year with further growth forecast in 2026 alongside the release of Rockstar Gaming’s Grand Theft Auto 6.
Immutable is well positioned to capitalize on that growth after teaming up with gaming giant Ubisoft on the next iteration of Might and Magic Fates in April.
Blockchain technology could have a key role to play in gaming if trends shift toward in-game ownership of items, which could see the implementation of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) within a game that could then be collected or sold on for crypto tokens.
IMX is currently trading at $0.736 having broken out of a key level of resistance. It will likely come back to test $0.70 as support before potentially moving higher, provided trading volume can sustain at these levels.

Derivatives Positioning

Most major cryptocurrencies, including BTC and ETH, continued to experience capital outflows from futures, leading to a decline in open interest.
AVAX stands out with OI rising over 14% as the token’s market cap looks to climb above $13 billion for the first time since Feb. 2.
Solana OI has reached a record high of over 70 million SOL, with positive funding rates pointing to bullish capital inflows.
On the CME, OI in solana futures pulled back to 7.63 million SOL from the record 8.12 million SOL on Sept. 12. Still, the three-month annualized premium holds well above 15%, offering an attractive yield for carry traders.
BTC CME OI continues to improve, but overall positioning remains light relative to ether and SOL futures.
On Deribit, the bias for BTC and ETH put options continues to ease across all tenors as traders anticipate Fed rate cuts. SOL and XRP options remain biased bullish.
On OTC network Paradigm, block flows featured BTC calendar spreads and shorting of call and put options.

Market Movements

BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $115,500.55 (24hrs: +0.54%)
ETH is unchanged at $4,513.45 (24hrs: -0.49%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 0.48% at 4,271.28 (24hrs: +0.71%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 2.87%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0059% (6.4616% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.32% at 96.99
Gold futures are up 0.42% at $3,734.70
Silver futures are up 0.53% at $43.19
Nikkei 225 closed up 0.3% at 44,902.27
Hang Seng closed unchanged at 26,438.51
FTSE is down 0.22% at 9,256.41
Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,437.55
DJIA closed on Monday up 0.11% at 45,883.45
S&P 500 closed up 0.47% at 6,615.28
Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.94% at 22,348.75
S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.5% at 29,431.02
S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.64% at 2,904.55
U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.037%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.19% at 6,633.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.29% at 24,380.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,902.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 58.11% (unchanged)
Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03907 (-0.36%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,025 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $53.98
Total Fees: 4.41 BTC / $508,109
CME Futures Open Interest: 140,975 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 31.2 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 8.82%

Technical Analysis

BTC is once again probing the 8-year bullish trendline trendline. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The monthly chart shows that BTC is again probing the trendline connecting the previous bull market peaks.
Bulls failed to establish a foothold above that trendline in July and August.
A third straight failure could really embolden sellers, potentially yielding a deeper drop.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $327.02 (+1.23%), +0.27% at $327.91
Circle (CRCL): closed at $134.05 (+6.97%), unchanged in pre-market
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $30.77 (+3.6%), +0.58% at $30.95
Bullish (BLSH): closed at $51.08 (-1.47%), +0.59% at $51.38
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.24 (-0.43%), unchanged in pre-market
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.68 (+4.97%), +1.08% at $16.86
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.32 (+2.9%), +0.37% at $16.38
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.29 (-0.58%), +0.1% at $10.30
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.73 (+3.78%), +1.96% at $39.49
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.88 (-1.69%), -1.94% at $27.34

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $327.79 (-1.1%), +0.34% at $328.89
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.39 (-2.74%)
SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.79 (-5.14%), +0.54% at $16.88
Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.33 (-6.29%), +0.95% at $6.39
Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $3.07 (+10.43%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $259.9 million
Cumulative net flows: $57.05 billion
Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: $359.7 million
Cumulative net flows: $13.74 billion
Total ETH holdings ~6.53 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Source link

September 16, 2025 0 comments

GameFi Guides

Altcoin Leverage Surges as Traders Brace for Fed Decision

by admin September 16, 2025

In brief

Altcoin open interest has jumped to $38 billion, closing in on Bitcoin’s $40 billion and topping Ethereum’s $30 billion, signaling heightened speculative activity.
Experts warn the leverage buildup could spark liquidations if the Fed’s expected rate cut triggers a shift in sentiment.
Political pressure on Chair Jerome Powell and signs of elevated implied volatility add to expectations of sharp swings in the days ahead.

A surge in leveraged bets on altcoins is beginning to build ahead of a key Federal Reserve policy decision this week, a move that could introduce significant volatility to the crypto markets this month.

Altcoin open interest is now close to surpassing Bitcoin’s, a setup that has historically preceded a drawdown in blue-chip digital assets.

“An uptick in altcoin leverage is the eagerness for alt season,” Stephen Gregory, founder of crypto trading platform Vtrader, told Decrypt.

Gregory pointed to the recent rally for altcoins last week and leveraged bets as evidence for the shifting sentiment.

Open interest for altcoins has swelled from $30 billion on September 1 to $38.6 billion as of Monday, eclipsing Bitcoin’s $40 billion and Ethereum’s $30 billion, according to Coinalyze data.

While open interest does little to provide a directional bias in the way prices move, it can indicate sophisticated traders are positioning themselves ahead of key events.

“People are rotated out of Bitcoin and into alts in the short term,” Gregory said, cautioning that larger traders may be attempting to “front run” the anticipated rate cut on Wednesday.

“The Fed’s rate cut decision could cause retail to assume its bullish while whales lever up on shorts and push a liquidation event,” he said.

Tensions have risen across both traditional and crypto markets over the central bank’s future monetary policy as it fights to remain independent amid pressure from the Trump administration.

President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have previously urged the Fed to reduce its September Funds Rate by as much as 50 basis points, going so far as to call for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s resignation multiple times this year.

Given the backdrop, traders are now “bracing for potential volatility,” Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, told Decrypt.

The analyst pointed to an increase in one-week at-the-money implied volatility and one-week 25-delta skews as evidence of anticipated short-term price movements.

“Given these indicators, we might expect heightened market activity and potential price fluctuations in the coming days,” he said. “Traders should remain vigilant and consider adjusting their strategies to navigate the anticipated volatility.”

Daily Debrief Newsletter

Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.

Source link

September 16, 2025 0 comments

NFT Gaming

Bitcoin And Crypto Brace For Market-Shaking Fed Decision

by admin September 15, 2025

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure

Bitcoin enters a macro-heavy week with the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, updated economic projections and a Powell press conference all landing on Wednesday, September 17—events that have historically set the tone for risk assets into quarter-end. As of early Monday in Europe, Bitcoin trades near $116,500 while Ether changes hands around $4,660, with positioning subdued ahead of the Fed.

Bitcoin And Crypto Brace For Fed Rate Cut

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes September 16–17, with the policy statement due at 2:00 p.m. ET (20:00 CEST) on Wednesday, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (20:30 CEST). The meeting includes a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the “dot plot” of policymakers’ rate paths—quarterly materials that markets parse line by line for clues on the pace and extent of easing through 2025–2026.

Expectations are unusually one-sided: futures markets imply that a 25-basis-point rate cut is the base case. In recent days, sell-side previews and market pricing have converged on that outcome, with only a small tail risk assigned to a larger move.The larger debate is what follows: whether Powell leans into a sequence of steady trims through year-end or emphasizes a slower, data-dependent path if inflation proves sticky.

The dot plot is the fulcrum for Bitcoin, crypto and broader risk. In June, officials’ projections set the prior baseline; Wednesday’s update will show how many 2025 cuts the median participant now “pencils in,” the distribution (how clustered or split the Committee is), and the long-run neutral rate (r*).

A lower 2025 median and softer inflation/PCE tracks would signal easier financial conditions into 2026; a shallower path or higher r* would do the opposite. The press conference then becomes a second-order catalyst: if Powell emphasizes labor-market cooling and policy lags, it could validate the market’s easing trajectory; if he highlights upside inflation risks or financial-stability considerations, it could cap the rally in duration and risk.

Balance-sheet policy matters for crypto liquidity, too. After tapering quantitative tightening through 2024, the Fed further slowed runoff this spring. As the Fed states, “Beginning on April 1, 2025, the Committee reduced the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion,” a mechanical easing of QT’s drag that has incrementally supported dollar liquidity conditions. That backdrop helps explain why the combination of rate cuts plus slower runoff is being read as net supportive for high-beta assets—provided the dots don’t undercut the path.

BoE And BoJ Decisions Follow

It’s not just the Fed on deck. The Bank of England announces Thursday, September 18 (12:00 BST; 13:00 CEST), with recent reporting suggesting no immediate rate move but an increased focus on scaling back the pace of quantitative tightening amid gilt-market sensitivity. Any change in the speed or composition of QT—or surprises in the guidance—feeds directly into global rates and the dollar, two variables tightly correlated with crypto’s short-term swings.

The Bank of Japan follows on Thursday–Friday (September 18–19, Tokyo), always a potential volatility injector for FX. While the policy path in Tokyo is its own narrative, BOJ adjustments to bond-buying or guidance can ripple into US yields and the DXY via yen moves, indirectly affecting crypto risk appetite. The BOJ’s meeting dates and release schedule underscore the timing overlap with the Fed and BoE.

For crypto, the transmission channel is straightforward: lower policy rates and a softer dot-plot path tend to ease financial conditions, pressure real yields and the dollar, and widen the appetite for duration and high-beta exposures—including Bitcoin and large-cap altcoins.

Conversely, a hawkish surprise—fewer cuts signaled for 2025, a higher long-run rate, or a press-conference emphasis on inflation risk—would likely firm the dollar and cap the rebound in risk, leaving crypto vulnerable to a post-event fade. In a week where the Fed, BoE, and BoJ decisions compress into 48 hours, the macro impulse will dominate micro narratives.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $115,733.

BTC is back above $115,000, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Editorial Process for bitcoinist is centered on delivering thoroughly researched, accurate, and unbiased content. We uphold strict sourcing standards, and each page undergoes diligent review by our team of top technology experts and seasoned editors. This process ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readers.

Source link

September 15, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

What’s Next for BTC, ETH as Downside Fears Ease Significantly Ahead of Fed Rate Cut?

by admin September 15, 2025

Fears of a downside for bitcoin BTC$116,264.09 and ether (ETH) have eased substantially, according to the latest options market data. However, the pace of the next upward move in these cryptocurrencies will largely hinge on the magnitude of the anticipated Fed rate cut scheduled for Sept. 17.

BTC’s seven-day call/put skew, which measures how implied volatility is distributed across calls versus puts expiring in a week, has recovered to nearly zero from the bearish 4% a week ago, according to data source Amberdata.

The 30- and 60-day option skews, though still slightly negative, have rebounded from last week’s lows, signaling a notable easing of downside fears. Ether’s options skew is exhibiting a similar pattern at the time of writing.

The skew shows the market’s directional bias, or the extent to which traders are more concerned about prices rising or falling. A positive skew suggests a bias towards calls or bullish option plays, while a negative reading indicates relatively higher demand for put options or downside protection.

The reset in options comes as bitcoin and ether prices see a renewed upswing in the lead-up to Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, where the central bank is widely expected to cut rates and lay the groundwork for additional easing over the coming months. BTC has gained over 4% to over $116,000 in seven days, with ether rising nearly 8% to $4,650, according to CoinDesk data.

What happens next largely depends on the size of the impending Fed rate cut. According to CME’s Fed funds futures, traders have priced in over 90% probability that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4%-4.25%. But there is also a slight possibility of a jumbo 50 bps move.

BTC could go berserk in case the Fed delivers the surprise 50 bps move.

“A surprise 50 bps rate cut would be a massive +gamma BUY signal for ETH, SOL and BTC,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email. “Gold will go absolutely nuts as well.”

Note that the Deribit-listed SOL options already exhibit a strong bullish sentiment, with calls trading at 4-5 volatility premium to puts.

Magadini explained that if the decision comes in line with expectations for a 25 bps cut, then a continued calm “grind higher” for BTC looks likely. ETH, meanwhile, may take another week or so to retest all-time highs and convincingly trade above $5,000, he added.

Source link

September 15, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

Trump Appeals Fed Governor Cook Case As New Evidence Emerges

by admin September 15, 2025

United States President Donald Trump has filed an appeal in the case involving Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook ahead of a key interest rate decision by the central bank this week.

Lawyers representing the Department of Justice on behalf of the President have appealed against a preliminary injunction issued by the district court on Sept. 9, regarding Trump’s decision to remove Cook from office.

The administration argues that removal “for cause” is “a capacious standard that Congress has vested in the President’s discretion” and is not subject to judicial review.

“When a statute gives a power of removal ‘for cause,’ without any specification of the causes, the removal decision is a matter of discretion and not reviewable,” it stated.

President Trump attempted to remove Cook on Aug. 25 based on alleged “deceitful and potentially criminal conduct” concerning mortgage agreements, citing apparent misrepresentations in loan documents. Cook challenged this removal, arguing it exceeded presidential authority and violated her due process rights.

The case has led to a significant legal battle over presidential removal powers and renewed concerns over the Fed’s independence, raising questions over the reliability of the US dollar.

New documents back Cook’s case

However, new evidence appears to have emerged that directly contradicts the Trump administration’s mortgage fraud claims.

A May 2021 loan summary states that Cook’s Atlanta property was used for a vacation home, supporting her position that she properly disclosed it as a second home, not her primary residence, according to an NBC report on Saturday.

The documents could mean that there may be no actual misrepresentation in her mortgage applications, weakening the government’s arguments.

Related: All roads lead to inflation: Fed cut or not, Bitcoin may stand to gain

Fed rate decision looms

Trump’s appeal comes a few days before a key Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday.

The Fed is expected to unanimously cut rates this week for the first time since December 2024.

Interest rates have been high in the US since early 2022. Source: TradingEconomics

CME futures markets project a 96.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut to 4.0% to 4.25% on Wednesday and a 3.6% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut.

“Yes, you’re going to get your rate cut out there in trading land,” RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance, before adding that economic data doesn’t suggest that there will be three cuts before the end of the year.

Fed set to cut rates this week…

With stocks at record highs.

Credit spreads near record lows.

Gold at record highs.

Bitcoin near record highs.

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) September 14, 2025

Meanwhile, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder is climbing the list of contenders to serve as the next Fed chair after Jerome Powell’s term expires in May, according to Bloomberg.

Magazine: XRP to retest highs? Bitcoin won’t go sideways for long: Hodler’s Digest

Source link

September 15, 2025 0 comments

Cryptos Steady as Rate Cuts Sentiment Lingers Ahead of Jobs Report

Crypto Trends

Bulls Bet on Fed Rate Cuts To Drive Bond Yields Lower, But There’s a Catch

by admin September 14, 2025

On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark range to 4.00%-4.25%. This move will likely be followed by more easing in the coming months, taking the rates down to around 3% within the next 12 months. The fed funds futures market is discounting a drop in the fed funds rate to less than 3% by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin BTC$115,729.93 bulls are optimistic that the anticipated easing will push Treasury yields sharply lower, thereby encouraging increased risk-taking across both the economy and financial markets. However, the dynamics are more complex and could lead to outcomes that differ significantly from what is anticipated.

While the expected Fed rate cuts could weigh on the two-year Treasury yield, those at the long end of the curve may remain elevated due to fiscal concerns and sticky inflation.

Debt supply

The U.S. government is expected to increase the issuance of Treasury bills (short-term instruments) and eventually longer-duration Treasury notes to finance the Trump administration’s recently approved package of extended tax cuts and increased defense spending. According to the Congressional Budget Office, these policies are likely to add over $2.4 trillion to primary deficits over ten years, while Increasing debt by nearly $3 trillion, or roughly $5 trillion if made permanent.

The increased supply of debt will likely weigh on bond prices and lift yields. (bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction).

“The U.S. Treasury’s eventual move to issue more notes and bonds will pressure longer-term yields higher,” analysts at T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, said in a recent report.

Fiscal concerns have already permeated the longer-duration Treasury notes, where investors are demanding higher yields to lend money to the government for 10 years or more, known as the term premium.

The ongoing steepening of the yield curve – which is reflected in the widening spread between 10- and 2-year yields, as well as 30- and 5-year yields and driven primarily by the relative resilience of long-term rates – also signals increasing concerns about fiscal policy.

Kathy Jones, managing director and chief income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, voiced a similar opinion this month, noting that “investors are demanding a higher yield for long-term Treasuries to compensate for the risk of inflation and/or depreciation of the dollar as a consequence of high debt levels.”

These concerns could keep long-term bond yields from falling much, Jones added.

Stubborn inflation

Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, bolstering expectations for a quicker pace of Fed rate cuts and a decline in Treasury yields. However, inflation has recently edged higher, complicating that outlook.

When the Fed cut rates in September last year, the year-on-year inflation rate was 2.4%. Last month, it stood at 2.9%, the highest since January’s 3% reading. In other words, inflation has regained momentum, weakening the case for faster Fed rate cuts and a drop in Treasury yields.

Easing priced in?

Yields have already come under pressure, likely reflecting the market’s anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The 10-year yield slipped to 4% last week, hitting the lowest since April 8, according to data source TradingView. The benchmark yield has dropped over 60 basis points from its May high of 4.62%.

According to Padhraic Garvey, CFA, regional head of research, Americas at ING, the drop to 4% is likely an overshoot to the downside.

“We can see the 10yr Treasury yield targeting still lower as an attack on 4% is successful. But that’s likely an overshoot to the downside. Higher inflation prints in the coming months will likely cause long-end yields some issues, requiring a significant adjustment,” Garvey said in a note to clients last week.

Perhaps rate cuts have been priced in, and yields could bounce back hard following the Sept. 17 move, in a repeat of the 2024 pattern. The dollar index suggests the same, as noted early this week.

Lesson from 2024

The 10-year yield fell by over 100 basis points to 3.60% in roughly five months leading up to the September 2024 rate cut.

The central bank delivered additional rate cuts in November and December. Yet, the 10-year yield bottomed out with the September move and rose to 4.57% by year-end, eventually reaching a high of 4.80% in January of this year.

According to ING, the upswing in yields following the easing was driven by economic resilience, sticky inflation, and fiscal concerns.

As of today, while the economy has weakened, inflation and fiscal concerns have worsened as discussed earlier, which means the 2024 pattern could repeat itself.

What it means for BTC?

While BTC rallied from $70,000 to over $100,000 between October and December 2024 despite rising long-term yields, this surge was primarily fueled by optimism around pro-crypto regulatory policies under President Trump and growing corporate adoption of BTC and other tokens.

However, these supporting narratives have significantly weakened looking back a year later. Consequently, the possibility of a potential hardening of yields in the coming months weighing over bitcoin cannot be dismissed.

Read: Here Are the 3 Things That Could Spoil Bitcoin’s Rally Towards $120K

Source link

September 14, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

Are ETFs Overpowering the Fed? Record Net Inflows Say Maybe

by admin September 14, 2025

Record-breaking flows into exchange-traded funds may be reshaping markets in ways that even the Federal Reserve can’t control.

New data show U.S.-listed ETFs have become a dominant force in capital markets. According to a Friday press release by ETFGI, an independent consultancy, assets invested in U.S. ETFs hit a record $12.19 trillion at the end of August, up from $10.35 trillion at the close of 2024. Bloomberg, which highlighted the surge on Friday, noted the flows are challenging the traditional influence of the Federal Reserve.

Investors poured $120.65 billion into ETFs during August alone, lifting year-to-date inflows to $799 billion — the highest on record. By comparison, the prior full-year record was $643 billion in 2024.

The growth is concentrated among the biggest providers. iShares leads with $3.64 trillion in assets, followed closely by Vanguard with $3.52 trillion and State Street’s SPDR family at $1.68 trillion.

Together, those three firms control nearly three-quarters of the U.S. ETF market. Equity ETFs drew the largest share of August inflows at $42 billion, while fixed-income funds added $32 billion and commodity ETFs nearly $5 billion.

Crypto-linked ETFs are now a meaningful piece of the picture.

Data from SoSoValue show U.S.-listed spot bitcoin and ether ETFs manage more than $120 billion combined, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC). Bitcoin ETFs alone account for more than $100 billion, equal to about 4% of bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap. Ether ETFs add another $20 billion, despite launching only earlier this year.

The surge underscores how ETFs — traditional and crypto alike — have become the vehicle of choice for investors of all sizes. For many, the flows are automatic.

In the U.S., much of the cash comes from retirement accounts known as 401(k)s, where workers put aside part of every paycheck.

A growing share of that money goes into “target-date funds.” These funds automatically shift investments — moving gradually from stocks into bonds — as savers approach retirement age. Model portfolios and robo-advisers follow similar rules, automatically directing flows into ETFs without investors making day-to-day choices.

Bloomberg described this as an “autopilot” effect: every two weeks, millions of workers’ contributions are funneled into index funds that buy the same baskets of stocks, regardless of valuations, headlines or Fed policy. Analysts cited by Bloomberg say this steady demand helps explain why U.S. equity indexes keep climbing even as data on jobs and inflation show signs of strain.

The trend raises questions about the Fed’s influence.

Traditionally, interest rate cuts or hikes sent strong signals that rippled through stocks, bonds, and commodities. Lower rates typically encouraged risk-taking, while higher rates reined it in. But with ETFs absorbing hundreds of billions of dollars on a set schedule, markets may be less sensitive to central bank cues.

That tension is especially clear this month. With the Fed expected to cut rates by a quarter point on Sept. 17, stocks sit near record highs and gold trades above $3,600 an ounce.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is trading at around $116,000, not far from its all-time high of $124,000 set in mid August.

Stock, bond and crypto ETFs have seen strong inflows, suggesting investors are positioning for easier money — but also reflecting a structural tide of passive allocations.

Supporters told Bloomberg the rise of ETFs has lowered costs and broadened access to markets. But critics quoted in the same report warn that the sheer scale of inflows could amplify volatility if redemptions cluster in a downturn, since ETFs move whole baskets of securities at once.

As Bloomberg put it, this “perpetual machine” of passive investing may be reshaping markets in ways that even the central bank struggles to counter.

Source link

September 14, 2025 0 comments

GameFi Guides

Moving Higher as Fed Likely to Focus on Growth, Not Inflation

by admin September 11, 2025

Markets are ignoring a hotter-than-expected inflation report and instead turning their attention to the latest signs that the U.S. labor market is faltering — a shift in focus that points to growing concern about a deeper economic slowdown.

Consumer prices rose a bit more than expected August, according to CPI data released Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both the headline rate of 2.9% and the core rate of 3.1% remain solidly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Normally, that would suggest the U.S. central bank should hold off on interest rate cuts.

But investors barely flinched at the data and instead focused what typically is the lesser-followed weekly initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor. That data showed claims soaring to 263,000 last week — the highest in nearly four years and up from 236,000 the previous week and 235,000 forecast. That focus was reflected in bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield sliding five basis points to below 4% for the first time since the April tariff panic tanked global equity markets.

Crypto markets initially dipped on the faster than expected inflation data, but quickly rebounded as the employment data took center stage. Bitcoin BTC$114,512.43 and ether (ETH) are only modestly higher, but the bigger action is in altcoins, suggesting the sort of animal spirits one might associated with monetary policy about to get a lot easier. Solana SOL$227.34 has risen 11% week-over-week to its highest level since January and dogecoin DOGE$0.2496 17% on a weekly basis. XRP XRP$3.0120 is ahead 6.6% over the last week and back above $3.

“Evidence of a slowdown in the U.S. is now appearing in the hard data; it’s no longer just in the sentiment surveys,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch.

As for the real economy, today’s numbers offer a troubling glimpse into something the U.S. central bank has been working hard to avoid: stagflation. This economic condition, defined by the simultaneous occurrence of high inflation and stagnant growth, is rare and difficult to fix. For policymakers, it’s a catch-22.

Cutting interest rates to stimulate growth risks inflaming inflation. But failure to ease monetary policy while the employment situation deteriorates isn’t a much better alternative.

For now, traders are betting that the Fed will lean toward protecting growth over stamping out inflation, with odds pointing to a rate cut next week as a near certainty. Today’s data, however, suggests that the balance is becoming harder to manage and the path ahead may be more complicated than the market is pricing in.

“It’s going to be a rough few months ahead as the tariffs impacts work their way through the economy,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Americans will experience higher prices and (likely) more layoffs.”

Source link

September 11, 2025 0 comments

Crypto Trends

Polymarket’s Top Trader Bets on a 50bps Fed Rate Cut Next Week

by admin September 10, 2025

A leading trader on decentralized betting platform Polymarket, who goes by the name JustWakingUp, is wagering that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) next week.

According to X handle Polymarket Whales, JustWakingUp is the platform’s most prolific trader, boasting nearly $400 million in total trading volume to date and profits exceeding $2 million.

The trader has placed a $15,000 bet that the Fed will reduce rates by 50 bps to 3.75% next week and is already showing a 3% gain on the position as of writing. The trader stands to make roughly $226,000 if the Fed does cut rates by 5 bps.

The market, however, largely expects the Fed to deliver a 25 basis point cut next week, with the CME’s FedWatch Tool assigning a 91% probability to such an outcome.

That said, the odds of a jumbo 50 bps cut have surged to nearly 10% following Friday’s disappointing August jobs report, reflecting growing expectations of more aggressive easing. BlackRock and StanChart have called for a 50 bps cut.

Adding to market expectations, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending March 2025 than previously estimated, marking the largest annual downward revision on record.

Traders are now closely watching Wednesday’s U.S. Producer Price Index and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index data releases. Softer-than-expected readings could add to expectations for a 50 bps cut, potentially sending bitcoin and stocks higher.

Source link

September 10, 2025 0 comments

NFT Gaming

Bitcoin’s Calm Masks Market Tension Ahead of Fed and CPI

by admin September 10, 2025

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

BTC is pinned near $111,000 with volatility compressed to multi-month lows, the kind of calm that tends to precede decisive moves. Traders know what could break the lull: September’s U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s rate decision a week later.

Prediction markets are leaning heavily toward easing. Polymarket bettors are assigning an 82% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on Sept. 17, leaving only slim odds for a deeper move or no change. Beyond that, October expectations are fractured, with nearly even probabilities for another cut or a pause. That divergence explains why volatility, though absent now, is unlikely to stay that way.

(Polymarket)

“Markets often look calm just before they move. Bitcoin is trading in one of its tightest ranges in months, and volatility across crypto has compressed to multi-month lows,” said Gracie Lin, OKX Singapore CEO. “With U.S. inflation data like Core CPI out on Sept. 11 and the Fed’s much-anticipated rate decision just ahead, this quiet period is setting the stage for the next decisive move. Whether the catalyst is an upside inflation surprise or a dovish signal from the Fed, what’s clear is that the absence of volatility is rarely permanent in digital assets; history shows the market will find its next direction soon enough.”

If a cut pulls money-market returns lower, the opportunity cost of sitting in cash rises, which is the pivot market maker Enflux says could send flows toward crypto.

“The real debate now is not if cuts come, but whether liquidity deployment shifts into BTC, ETH, and even riskier assets,” the firm told CoinDesk.

In other words, the Fed’s cut may grab headlines, but the real trade is whether sidelined cash rotates into digital assets — a shift that could fuel the return of volatility.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin has dipped slightly intraday, trading between approximately $110,812 and $113,237, reflecting short-term volatility amid shifting investor sentiment and broader crypto market dynamics.

ETH: ETH is modestly up intraday, with a range between roughly $4,279 and $4,379, signaling steady demand and some renewed investor interest. Range, however, is limited with modest ETF flows and traders awaiting the Fed’s next move.

Gold: Gold is rallying to record highs, fueled by mounting expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and renewed safe-haven demand.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks opened mostly higher Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.2%, as investors awaited China’s August inflation data showing an expected 0.2% CPI drop and a smaller 2.9% PPI decline.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks closed at record highs Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.27% to 6,512.61, as investors looked past a record payroll revision that cut 911,000 jobs from prior figures.

Elsewhere in Crypto

OpenSea Teases SEA Token With Final Phase of Rewards Amid App Launch (CoinDesk)
California Man Sentenced in $36.9M Crypto Scam Tied to Infamous Huione Group (CoinDesk)
Collector Crypt drives $150 million in randomized Pokémon card trades as CARDS token soars (The Block)

Source link

September 10, 2025 0 comments