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CD20, June 19 2025 (CoinDesk)
NFT Gaming

Bitcoin Shrugs Off Fed, Mideast War, but Derivatives Flash Caution

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Shaurya is the Co-Leader of the CoinDesk tokens and data team in Asia with a focus on crypto derivatives, DeFi, market microstructure, and protocol analysis.

Shaurya holds over $1,000 in BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, SUSHI, CRV, NEAR, YFI, YFII, SHIB, DOGE, USDT, USDC, BNB, MANA, MLN, LINK, XMR, ALGO, VET, CAKE, AAVE, COMP, ROOK, TRX, SNX, RUNE, FTM, ZIL, KSM, ENJ, CKB, JOE, GHST, PERP, BTRFLY, OHM, BANANA, ROME, BURGER, SPIRIT, and ORCA.

He provides over $1,000 to liquidity pools on Compound, Curve, SushiSwap, PancakeSwap, BurgerSwap, Orca, AnySwap, SpiritSwap, Rook Protocol, Yearn Finance, Synthetix, Harvest, Redacted Cartel, OlympusDAO, Rome, Trader Joe, and SUN.



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Crypto Trends

What Is the Top Focus Point for Traders in Wednesday’s Fed (FOMC) Meeting

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The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Open Market Committee, comprising 12 officials, is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference half an hour later.

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates that the central bank is again likely to hold ground and keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% despite President Donald Trump’s repeated demands for lower borrowing costs.

The rate decision, therefore, is a foregone conclusion and crypto traders are likely to focus on the interest rate dot plot – the graphical representation that records each Fed official’s projections for interest rates.

“With rates expected to stay on hold, traders are focused on the dot‑plot: fewer than two projected cuts would harden the higher‑for‑longer narrative; a dovish surprise would lighten the dollar and could unfreeze crypto’s bid. Until then, patience rules,” crypto trading and market-making firm XBTO said.

A hawkish dot plot, suggesting fewer rate cuts, could put pressure on bitcoin and the broader crypto market. BTC’s rally has already stalled above $100,000, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to the trade war-led inflation uncertainty.

“During 2025, expectations for rate cuts have already declined sharply, from an initial 100 basis points to just 50 basis points currently. This revision is driven by a resilient labor market and inflation that, while moderated, remains above the 2% target. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could further reduce anticipated cuts to just 25 basis points,” Matteo Greco, senior analyst at Fineqia, said in an email.

While the hawkish Fed could breed downside volatility in bitcoin, it will likely worsen the U.S. fiscal situation by adding to the nation’s debt servicing costs and thereby strengthening the long-term appeal of assets like gold and bitcoin.



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Dow drops 115 points as S&P 500’s six-day rally ends
Crypto Trends

Dow Jones inches up, S&P 500, Nasdaq gain as Trump pressures Fed

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U.S. stocks climbed higher as softer inflation data improved the prospects of a Fed rate cut.

U.S. stock indices erased early morning losses on hopes that a lower consumer price index reading might contribute to monetary easing. On Tuesday, June 12, the Dow Jones was up 0.17%, or 70 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both gained 0.35%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average heatmap | Source: TipRanks

Low inflation data is still influencing trader sentiment, with many anticipating potential rate cuts following last month’s soft CPI figures. Still, the Federal Reserve has remained hesitant to lower rates, citing the potential inflationary effects of U.S. tariffs on major trading partners.

This hesitation has been met with continued pressure from the White House. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that the Federal Reserve should cut rates by one point. While he clarified that he would not seek to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, he noted he might have to “force something” on rates.

Boeing loses 4.5%, Oracle hits ATH

Dow Jones was weighed down by Boeing stock, which saw a significant decline after the deadly Dreamliner crash in India. Shares of the aircraft manufacturer were down 4.5%, as the latest crash compounded recent scandals involving the company.

In 2024, the company faced a series of scandals, all starting with one plane that had its door ripped in mid-air. This led to whistleblowers exposing corner-cutting when it comes to safety, as well as attempted coverups.

On the other hand, Oracle stock jumped 14% to an all-time high after its earnings beat Wall Street expectations. The firm revised its expected revenue for 2026 to $67 billion, up from the previous estimate of $66 billion.

The reason for the revised forecast is the expected growing demand for its AI-powered cloud services. The revenue from its cloud service rose 14% quarterly, largely due to the built-in and integrated AI services the company provides.



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Fed Beige Book flags modest decline in activity, stable labor market
Crypto Trends

Fed Beige Book flags modest decline in activity, stable labor market

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In a live reaction to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book release Wednesday afternoon, Bloomberg’s Federal Reserve and economics reporter Catarina Saraiva highlighted an increasingly cautious mood across U.S. businesses and consumers.

Saraiva stated the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book is “pretty similar” report to what we have seen this year, pointing to slight declines in activity and a labor market holding steady.

Saraiva emphasized how uncertainty, particularly tied to trade tensions and tariffs, continues to weigh on decision-making. She added that businesses and consumers “are kind of waiting to see how this tariff fight plays out.”

The Beige Book mentioned tariffs a total of 122 times, and that “economic activity declining modestly” was a recurring theme across multiple regions, she noted.

Consumer spending holds

Despite fears that tariffs would depress household spending, Saraiva said U.S. consumers have remained surprisingly resilient. The consumer, she said “has stayed strong” and a “big part of that is the labor market.” Retail sales increased slightly, but there’s been a drop in big-ticket purchases.

On inflation, Saraiva pointed to an ongoing concern at the Fed: the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. “That completely takes away the Fed’s ability to control prices,” she warned. However, she noted that most market-based inflation measures remain stable, despite some recent volatility in sentiment surveys.

Michelle Bowman seen as a steady, regulation-light Fed candidate

Saraiva also discussed her recent reporting on Michelle Bowman, U.S. President Donald Trump’s pick for the Federal Reserve’s Vice Chair for Supervision. Bowman, currently a Fed governor, is known for her support of lighter-touch regulation and opposition to recent proposals for increased capital requirements.

“Her views are very widely known… she’s kind of aligned with the industry when it comes to [regulation],” Saraiva said.

She added that Bowman still advocates for rigorous supervision and has called for an independent review of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

Bowman could also be in the running to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, Saraiva added. She’s already on the board and has “proven herself to be a dedicated policymaker.”



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Dow drops 245 points as Fed minutes spooks Wall Street
GameFi Guides

Dow Jones snaps win streak as Fed Beige Book flags weak growth, rising costs

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U.S. stocks ended mixed Wednesday after a weak private payrolls report and a cautious economic outlook from the Fed’s Beige Book fueled concerns about growth, inflation, and tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a four day winning steak, closing lower by 91.90 points, or 0.22%. The S&P 500 was nearly flat, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.32% to end at 19,460.49.

Wednesday’s stock trading session sentiment was hit by a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report, which showed private payrolls rose by only 37,000 in May, notably below estimates. The reading comes ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data and may force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 4.349%, its lowest since early May.

Fed’s Beige Book flags weakening growth, rising price pressures.

Further clouding the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released on Wednesday morning, reported a “slight decline” in U.S. economic activity over the past six weeks. Hiring activity was mostly flat as business owners put off expansion plans due to elevated policy uncertainty from Washington and tariff-related cost pressures.

“All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty,” the Fed noted. The report also cited “widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward.”

Tariffs were mentioned 122 times in the Beige Book, up from 107 in April.

Businesses across multiple regions, including New York and Philadelphia, reported rising input costs. Some firms are expecting reduced profit margins or passing along some additional cost to consumers to manage input spikes.

Boston, New York, and Philadelphia saw declines in activity. However, regions like Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago reported modest growth. Overall, the Fed found that even in stronger districts, hiring activity was cautious.



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Dow Jones down 200 points as Fed remains cautious, Trump escalatest threats against China
GameFi Guides

Dow Jones down 200 points as Fed remains cautious, Trump escalatest threats against China

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U.S. stocks decline despite positive inflation figures, after Trump once again threatened China over trade policy.

Positive inflation figures were not enough to move U.S. stocks higher. On Friday, May 30, the Dow Jones fell 240 points, or 0.57%, while the S&P 500 dropped 60 points, or 1.00%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq suffered the most, losing 307 points, or 1.60%.

Markets were focused on President Donald Trump’s new threats against China’s trade policy. On May 30, Trump accused China of violating its agreement with the U.S., which had recently paused the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. However, he did not specify what China did to violate the agreement.

“The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!” Trump wrote.

Markets have been nervous over Trump’s trade policy ever since April 2, when Trump unveiled unprecedented tariffs on major U.S. trading partners. Despite a federal court striking down Trump’s tariffs on May 29, the ongoing uncertainty is contributing to a stock market pullback.

Tariffs spook Fed, despite slow inflation

The tariffs are also having a direct effect on Federal Reserve policy. According to a Morgan Stanley analyst, tariffs will certainly have an inflationary effect in the U.S., and the Fed knows this. For this reason, rates will likely remain the same, despite a positive inflation reading.

In April, core inflation rose 2.5%, its best reading since 2021. This is also the metric the Fed prefers to examine when setting monetary policy. Still, while tariffs haven’t yet had a measurable inflationary effect, the consensus remains that this is likely.

What’s more, the Fed has reiterated its wait-and-see approach on numerous occasions since April, when the tariffs took effect. For now, Chair Jerome Powell seems resistant to pressures by the White House to lower interest rates.



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Dow drops 245 points as Fed minutes spooks Wall Street
Crypto Trends

Dow drops 245 points as Fed minutes spooks Wall Street

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U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its May policy meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.58%, or 245 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices fell 0.56% and 0.51%, respectively. The central bank’s minutes indicated a cautious approach to monetary policy and warned of “difficult tradeoffs” ahead if inflation persists.

“Participants agreed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further, making it appropriate to take a cautious approach until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer,” a CNBC transcript of the minutes read. “Participants noted that the Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proves to be more persistent while the outlooks for growth and employment weaken.”

In trade talks, U.S. President Donald Trump pushed back against a Financial Times columnist who coined the term “TACO trade,” or Trump Always Chickens Out, a reference to the President’s tendency to delay tariff implementations. Trump said his tactics are part of a negotiation strategy and that trading partners like the European Union are eager to reach deals.

Meanwhile, strong earnings from key retailers signaled that consumer spending remains robust. Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch Co. gained 14% after the company reported strong first-quarter results and guided for full-year net sales growth of 3% to 6%. On the other hand, shares of HP plunged 15% after missing earnings expectations and issuing a disappointing outlook due to “added costs” from tariffs.

Nvidia shares moved higher in extended trading after posting a top- and bottom-line beat. The company reported EPS of 96 cents on revenue of $44.06 billion, topping estimates of 93 cents per share and $43.31 billion. Data center revenue grew 73% year-over-year, though the company missed out on $2.5 billion in sales due to export restrictions on chips bound for China. The gross margin for the quarter was 61%, which would have been 71.3% without the new China-related charges.



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