In brief
- Crypto policy leaders have become convinced this week that market structure bills are highly unlikely to pass Congress this year.
- The crypto industry has been pushing for months to get both stablecoin and market structure bills passed in 2025.
- Now, policy leaders are beginning to wrap their heads around moving forward without market structure legislation, which would create a formal framework for regulating most crypto assets in the United States.
Late last night, the House’s crypto market structure bill passed votes in two committees, prompting celebration on Capitol Hill and statements of confidence from lawmakers that the legislation—which would establish a novel framework for regulating most crypto activity in the United States—is on a glide path to becoming law.
But privately, in the last week, crypto’s top lobbyists have come to a very different conclusion: For a variety of reasons, the chances of market structure legislation passing this year have plunged to near-zero.
“Anyone who disagrees is either delusional or stupid,” one top crypto lobbyist told Decrypt Wednesday.
How come? A number of variables related to the bill itself and the macro political climate are making market structure a near-impossible pill to swallow for many Democrats, five crypto policy leaders who spoke with Decrypt said. But looming large at the top of that list: Donald Trump’s numerous personal and lucrative crypto ventures, which Democrats have seized on as perhaps their most salient vector of attack against the president during his second term.
In recent weeks, Democrats in both the House and Senate have tied pending crypto bills to the president, demanding the bills include language that would prevent Trump and his immediate family from engaging in crypto ventures while he remains in office. House Republicans rebuffed efforts to include such language in stablecoin-specific legislation, suggesting the conversation would be more appropriate during broader market structure bill discussion.
Yesterday, however, during a committee markup of their market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, Republicans again blocked efforts to include conflict-of-interest language in the legislation that would impact the president’s crypto businesses.
“This bill is not about the personal finances of any one individual,” House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-AR) said at one point during Tuesday’s markup. “It’s not an ethics bill.”
Trump’s crypto dealings are single-handedly responsible for dooming chances of a crypto market structure bill passing Congress, the top crypto lobbyist said.
“Reasons one, two, three, four, and five are the president’s business dealings in crypto while in office,” they said.
The lobbyist laid particular blame for this development at the feet of the operators of World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s crypto platform.
“These people, they hate us,” the lobbyist said. “They announce a new product every time there’s a key vote. During the markup yesterday, Eric Trump is fucking tweeting about World Liberty and their new stablecoin. It’s just insane.”
In addition to the president’s crypto dealings, other macro political factors have precipitously decreased the odds of crypto market structure legislation passing this year, another policy expert told Decrypt. Passing bills with bipartisan support has become steadily more difficult with every passing day of President Trump’s second term, the expert said, given every news cycle brings more reasons why Democrats would find it difficult, optics-wise, to sign off on one of the White House’s top policy priorities.
This week, for instance, the president deployed the U.S. military to quell protests against his administration’s immigration policies in Los Angeles, a remarkable escalation that Democrats have framed as an assault on democracy. During yesterday’s markup of the CLARITY Act, some of the most heated exchanges between members of both parties had nothing to do with crypto, but instead, the escalating situation in California.
Such partisan tensions, which lingered in the background of crypto proceedings just months ago, have now become an unavoidable hindrance to market structure legislation—which will require support from Democrats to become law—the expert said.
Weeks ago, these forces nearly derailed the passage of the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin bill in the Senate that is widely considered less contentious than more far-reaching market structure legislation. In their current form, market structure bills would amend America’s decades-old securities laws to exempt most crypto tokens from the SEC’s oversight.
“GENIUS was a clusterfuck,” the expert said. “And this bill is more ambitious.”
Another crypto lobbyist who spoke with Decrypt for this story had expressed some hope earlier this week that the CLARITY Act might yet pass if combined in the House with stablecoin legislation, and pushed through quickly as one megabill.
“You have to create an unstoppable freight train running from the House,” the lobbyist said Tuesday.
But after last night’s vote on the CLARITY Act by the House Financial Services Committee, which saw only two Democrats join Republicans to advance the bill to the House floor, the lobbyist revised their once cautiously optimistic outlook.
“That vote dims my expectations for market structure substantially,” the lobbyist said Wednesday. “It’s more likely that GENIUS passes standalone.”
Every policy expert Decrypt spoke to for this story agreed. The GENIUS Act is currently approaching a final vote on the Senate floor, with cloture votes on the legislation set for this afternoon. Should the House’s attempts to pass a crypto megabill fail, congressional Republicans and the White House will likely take a victory on stablecoins and call it a day, the experts said.
A White House official pushed back on that characterization.
“The Administration is firmly committed to seeing market structure through, as it was passed out of committee last night,” the official told Decrypt. “We’re excited about the bipartisan progress being made.”
“The White House is extremely optimistic and dedicated to seeing that both stablecoin and market structure legislation make it to President Trump’s desk,” the official added.
On Tuesday, 18 Democrats on the House Agriculture Committee did support the CLARITY Act. The bill had to pass votes before the Agriculture Committee and Financial Services, which jointly wrote the legislation.
It was a foregone conclusion that the CLARITY Act would pass Agriculture, however, and the result during the more closely watched Financial Services Committee vote was considered a disappointment. Multiple pro-crypto Democrats ultimately voted against advancing the legislation to the House floor.
“Yesterday’s vote makes clear that while we all recognize that crypto is part of the future—it cannot and will not happen this way,” House Financial Services Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-CA) said in a statement shared with Decrypt. “Not without clear guardrails, and not while Trump is brazenly and illegally using crypto to make him and his family even richer.” Waters added: “It’s why we on the Financial Services Committee voted overwhelmingly against this reckless piece of legislation last night. I suspect the same will happen with House Democrats if and when this reaches the floor.”
A Democratic House staffer told Decrypt: “Republicans thought they’d be able to shave off a lot of Democrats but were only able to get two. Definitely signs of what will be a larger problem.”
Should Congress pass a stablecoin bill without accompanying market structure legislation, the task of regulating crypto markets would likely fall to the SEC, which has shown itself, since the start of Trump’s second term, to be eager and willing to create favorable conditions for the crypto industry. That regulatory fix would not be permanent, however, and the agency’s attitude towards crypto could easily shift with a future president’s views on the industry.
One crypto lobbyist who spoke with Decrypt for this story concurred there is likely no path forward for market structure legislation this year. The only thing to do, they said, is try again in 2026.
When asked whether odds of passage would be any better for market structure next year, given the looming midterm elections and other obstacles, the lobbyist had no response. They merely put their hands in the air, smiled exasperatedly, and shrugged.
Editor’s note: This story was updated after publication to include comments from Maxine Waters.
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