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Bitcoin BTC$112,647.84 held just under $112,000 on Monday as traders weighed the largest whale sell-off in more than two years against signs of long-term accumulation and resilient altcoin performance.

On-chain trackers at CryptoQuant have flagged over 100,000 BTC — worth approximately $12.7 billion — as exiting major wallets in the past 30 days. Analyst caueconomy called it “the largest coin distribution this year,” noting that whale reserves fell by 114,920 BTC, pushing spot prices briefly below $108,000 last week.

The scale mirrors July 2022, when whales last trimmed positions this aggressively.

“The portfolios of major players are still shrinking, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks,” the analyst said. The sales have coincided with softer ETF inflows and thinner volumes, leaving the market leaning on macro catalysts.

The longer-term picture is more constructive. Bitcoin is down only 13% from its mid-August all-time high, far shallower than historic pullbacks. CryptoQuant analyst Dave the Wave said the one-year moving average, which sat at $52,000 a year ago, has now risen to $94,000 and will likely break through $100,000 in October — indicative of a structural uptrend.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, said supply metrics back that view: “Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has climbed to a record 14.3 million BTC, with more than 70% of coins in wallets with little spending history. Confidence in long-term value remains evident.”

Lee sees price stabilizing and regaining momentum in a $105,000–$118,000 range, supported by ETF flows and bullish MACD signals.

Ethereum traded around $4,307, with Lee projecting a $4,100–$4,600 band if ETF demand holds. He added that upcoming network upgrades and DeFi catalysts could drive independent gains.

Meanwhile, market breadth showed modest improvement. XRP gained 2.3% to $2.96, Solana’s SOL rose 3.2% to $214, and dogecoin extended a 10.5% weekly climb to $0.236. Cardano’s ADA also strengthened, adding 6% over the past seven days to $0.865.

Still, sentiment remains muted. FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich noted that total crypto market capitalization rose 2.5% last week to $3.85 trillion but remains below its 50-day average.

“This is a worrying indicator of underlying risk appetite,” he said in an email to CoinDesk. The sentiment index dipped into fear at 44 over the weekend before recovering to 51 on Monday, suggesting traders are in wait-and-see mode.

September’s seasonal weakness adds another layer of caution even as macro pressures continue to loom.

Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE, said in a Telegram message that U.S. inflation prints due midweek will steer the next move. “Higher-than-expected numbers would cause Bitcoin and Ethereum to decline, while lower numbers could cause a rally,” Mei said.

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