October has been historically the most bullish month for Bitcoin, which earned the month the now-overused “Uptober” moniker within the cryptocurrency community.
The month does live up to its facetious name, given that it has managed to remain in the green for seven years in a row.
In 2023, Bitcoin surged by 28.5% in October. In 2021, the leading cryptocurrency soared by nearly 40%.
There were only two years when Bitcoin was in the red in October (2018 and 2014). Both times, the cryptocurrency was in the middle of rather brutal bear markets that followed the speculative bubbles of 2013 and 2017.
After a strong start, Bitcoin seems to be on track to extend the streak.
Macro picture
According to Polymarket bettors, there is a 94% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September meeting.
Market participants are overwhelmingly betting on a total of three rate cuts in 2025.
Fed rate cuts, which will make borrowing cheaper, are expected to further bolster risk assets.
At the same time, there is also a lot of uncertainty about the economic impact of the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S.
The U.S. stock market experienced a substantial correction during the longest shutdown to date that took place from Dec. 22, 2018, to Jan. 25, 2019. Back then, Bitcoin was in the late stage of a truly grueling bear market. However, the impact of this shutdown could be dramatically different, and the cryptocurrency is currently approaching a new record high.
Traders will have to keep a close eye on key data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics regarding employment and unemployment, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the GDP data.
Bitcoin/gold correlation
Gold has been consistently outperforming Bitcoin this year despite having a significantly bigger market capitalization. As reported by U.Today, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer previously predicted that gold could pass the baton to its digital rival in the second half of the year, but this has yet to happen.
While gold keeps smashing new record highs, Bitcoin’s price action remains stubbornly underwhelming as the cryptocurrency remains below its record peak.
As noted by analyst Chris Burniske, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has slipped back to a historically important support level.
This level could be a logical place for a future reversal if it actually manages to catch up with gold this year.
ETF bonanza
October is also on track to be a historic month for the cryptocurrency sector due to the sheer number of crypto ETFs that are expected to be approved this month.
Issuers will be awaiting the SEC’s decisions on a slew of altcoin ETFs designed to track such cryptocurrencies as Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and XRP.
However, the aforementioned government shutdown might delay their approval.
