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Dogecoin has been under intense pressure in recent days, with its price sinking to a new local low of $0.14 after shedding more than 35% of its value over the past month. Despite intermittent bounces, Dogecoin’s price action has been relatively weak, and the meme coin is now retesting a long-term trendline drawn from the 2021 all-time high.
There have been speculations about how much longer this correction might last and when the next major reversal could begin. According to technical speculations by a crypto analyst, Dogecoin is still on track to register a new peak by August.
Estimating Dogecoin Top Formation
Crypto analyst Javier, posting on the social media platform X, has drawn attention to Dogecoin’s past behavior in major bull cycles by showing a repeating pattern in how long Dogecoin typically takes to form both its bottoms and its tops. According to the chart and notes shared by the analyst, historical bottoms have often developed over 112 to 133 days, with an average of about 122 days.
Meanwhile, Dogecoin’s cycle tops have historically formed within 91 to 119 days, averaging around 107 days. These durations have been consistent across multiple cycles since 2017. This trend is visualized in the chart below, which highlights four different breakouts and corrections spanning from 2017 to the current cycle.
The data shows that DOGE is currently progressing through a similar phase. According to the analysis, Dogecoin had already dropped to a low of about $0.14 in April. Interestingly, despite the crash in the past 24 hours, Dogecoin seems to have respected this low.
Source: Javier on X
The ongoing price action is now that of a movement towards a new peak, which should take an average of 119 days. More notably, the analyst noted that the maximum time it has taken for a top in any previous cycle is 119 days. If repeated, the analysis points to August 4, 2025, as a probable peak for the current leg of Dogecoin’s price action. This means a strong move to the upside may soon begin before the next reversal toward a new low. From where we are, the reversal should start between the next 14 and 49 days.
Reversal Window Between Mid-July And Early August
The analyst projects that if the current pattern holds true, the next meaningful reversal for Dogecoin could begin anytime from around 49 to 14 days before this projected August 4 top. This places the likely window for a price bottom and new peak between now and mid-July and early August.
The implication here is that the meme coin may still experience additional short-term downside or sideways movement before reentering a bullish trend. At the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.1642, up by 5.7% in the past 24 hours.
DOGE trading at $0.16 on the 1D chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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