The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are battling this weekend for a lead in the National League East that has gone back and forth between the two clubs, with the Mets opening up a 5½-game lead June 12 before losing six in a row to the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves and drawing the Phillies back in.
The Braves were supposed to be part of this mix but have stumbled through a terrible first half, leaving this as a two-team race. While Mets and Phillies fans are bitter rivals, it’s been a long time since the two teams have clashed for a division crown. Even last season, when both teams joined the Braves in the playoffs, the Mets were never really in the division race, getting no closer in the second half than five games back in the final week.
The Mets and Braves tied for the division title with 101 wins in 2022, but the Phillies finished 14 games behind, only to get hot in the postseason and reach the World Series. The Phillies were bad for a long time before that, the Mets mostly bad, so we go back to 2008 to find the most recent heated Mets-Phillies division race. The Mets were a half-game up with nine to play, but they finished 3-6, while the Phillies went 6-2 to win the division by three games — and went on to win the World Series.
What has put both teams in this position? Let’s look at the biggest strength so far for the Mets, Phillies and all the teams in the majors with records currently above .500 this season, starting with the National League.
National League
Record: 47-30 (1st in NL West)
Biggest strength: Offense
Just like the Cubs, the Dodgers might have the best offense in franchise history, league-adjusted. They lead the majors in runs scored and their wRC+ of 124 would be their highest ever. (If we remove pitchers from the equation, the top mark goes to the 1953 Brooklyn club at 126.) This is nothing new, as the Dodgers have ranked first or second in the NL in runs scored each season since 2018.
We know all about the remarkable exploits of Shohei Ohtani and his chance to become the first player to score 160 runs since Lou Gehrig, but one big key of late has been Max Muncy — now wearing glasses. Through April 29, Muncy was hitting .180 with no home runs in 28 games. He wore glasses for the first time on April 30 and homered that night. He’s hitting .281/.420/.541 since donning the eyewear, giving the Dodgers yet another lethal bat.
Record: 46-30 (1st in NL East)
Biggest strength: Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez
On paper and in the standings, the Phillies match up with the Mets. When you dig into the numbers, however, the Mets should be ahead of them. Even with their recent slide, the Mets have a plus-60 run differential, with the Phillies at plus-42. The Mets are fifth in the majors in bullpen win probability added, the Phillies way down at 23rd as they’ve struggled with their closer situation. Aaron Nola is 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA and on the IL. Even Bryce Harper has been a little down at the plate and is now injured as well.
But the Phillies do have Wheeler and Suarez (and Cristopher Sanchez has been good, too). Wheeler is doing his usual thing, once again on the short list for best pitcher in baseball. At 35, he’s not only showing no signs of age, but has a career-high strikeout rate of 32.5%. Suarez, meanwhile, is 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA in starts after beginning the season on the IL. After giving up seven runs in his first start, he has been in lockdown mode, with a 1.17 ERA across eight starts, including five of seven innings. Suarez has had runs like this before, including a 2.76 ERA in the first half last season that earned him an All-Star spot.
Record: 45-30 (1st in NL Central)
Biggest strength: Offense. And defense. AKA: Pete Crow-Armstrong
How good has the Cubs’ offense been? They’re averaging 5.36 runs per game, second in the majors. The last time they came close to that was 5.31 in 2008. The last time they averaged more per game was 1935, when five regulars hit over .300. If we adjust for league context, however, the 2025 Cubs have the highest wRC+ in franchise history since 1900. This is an excellent offense.
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How good has the Cubs’ defense been? They’re second in the majors in both defensive runs saved and Statcast’s fielding run value.
Leading the way on both sides of the ball has been the thrilling, the wonderful, the breathtaking Pete Crow-Armstrong. How good has the 23-year-old center fielder been? With his defense, power and speed, he has already posted 4.3 WAR though 74 games, a season-long pace of 9.5. Only four Cubs position players have topped that mark: Rogers Hornsby in 1929 (10.6), Sammy Sosa in 2001 (10.3), Ernie Banks in 1959 (10.2) and Ron Santo in 1967 (9.8).
The analytics say he can’t keep this up, that pitchers will figure how to exploit his league-worst chase rate. Except they haven’t yet (see the 452-foot home run he just hit a few days ago). In the Statcast metrics, he ranks in the 100th percentile in fielding value, 99th percentile in baserunning value, and 89th percentile in batting value. Call that the triple crown of awesomeness.
Record: 45-31 (2nd in NL East)
Biggest strength: Starting pitching
The Mets’ big three — Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso — have all been outstanding, with Soto back on track after a slow start, but the rotation has keyed the team’s strong start, leading the majors with a 3.03 ERA. They’ve done it even without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, who haven’t pitched in the majors yet this season. Leading the way have been Kodai Senga (1.47 ERA), David Peterson (2.60) and Clay Holmes (3.04). Kudos to Mets management for signing Holmes as a free agent and converting him from reliever to starter, a gutsy move that has paid huge dividends.
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Aside from likely regression, the rotation depth will now be tested. Senga just injured his hamstring and might miss a month. Tylor Megill is out with an elbow sprain and could miss up to five weeks. Montas’ rehab clock ends Sunday, but he got pounded in four Triple-A starts for Syracuse, with a 13.19 ERA and just eight strikeouts in 14⅓ innings. He looks unusable for the rotation right now, so the Mets might have to bury him in the bullpen. Manaea made a rehab start for Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, so he’s at least getting closer. The Mets might also have a weapon waiting in the minors if needed in Jonah Tong, who has a 1.97 ERA in Double-A while averaging 14.6 K’s per nine.
Record: 42-34 (2nd in NL West)
Biggest strength: Front-line pitching
The Giants are third in the majors in ERA and fifth in runs allowed per game, but have relied on a relatively small group of pitchers to achieve that: starters Logan Webb (7-5, 2.49 ERA) and Robbie Ray (8-2, 2.68 ERA) and relievers Randy Rodriguez, Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Erik Miller (all with sub-2.00 ERAs). Hayden Birdsong has also moved to the rotation from the bullpen and has a 3.25 ERA.
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Not surprisingly, the Giants receive a lot of help from their home park: Their ERA is 2.89 at home and 3.72 on the road. That road ERA is still seventh best in the majors, but the Giants have certainly thrived at home, where they are 23-14 despite averaging fewer than four runs per game. Acquiring Rafael Devers will help the offense, but the pressure will remain on the pitching to win these low-scoring games. The Giants are 18-15 in one-run games, leading the majors in one-run games played and one-run wins — with 10 such wins coming when they’ve scored three or fewer runs.
Record: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd in NL Central)
Biggest strength: Position player durability
OK, this is kind of a weird one, but we’re trying to figure out how the Brewers are once again succeeding. Their bullpen has been solid, but certainly has had a few more leaks than the past two seasons, when the pen was dominant, especially in win probability added. They’re good on the bases, but near the bottom of the league in home runs. So let’s go with lineup stability.
The Brewers have played 76 games, and seven players have played at least 70 of them. That’s pretty remarkable in today’s game, when staying healthy sometimes feels like half the battle. Other than Joey Ortiz, they have all produced positive WAR — and since the Brewers are not using their bench much or resorting to call-ups, they’re avoiding the “bad” plate appearances that drag down some lineups. No single player is tearing it up, but having seven slightly better than average hitters might be enough to win a wild card.
Record: 41-35 (Tied for 2nd in NL Central)
Biggest strength: Rotation stability
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The Cardinals have been a mild surprise, even without any specific thing standing out. Is anybody on offense killing it? Not really. Brendan Donovan is hitting over .300 and has a bunch of doubles, and Ivan Herrera is hitting over .300 and has an OPS over .900, but he missed a month. Has the bullpen been shutting opponents down? Not exactly, no. Closer Ryan Helsley has five blown saves. Is the defense great? Maybe, with Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn, but the teamwide metrics don’t stand out. Is the rotation dominating? Hardly. The rotation is 18th in ERA.
But … the rotation has been stable, with the top five guys all making at least 14 starts. They’ve needed only four starts from outside those five, two of those coming in doubleheaders and a third resulting from a doubleheader. This is a change from last year, when eight pitchers made at least six starts and especially from the 91-loss season of 2023, when only Miles Mikolas made more than 21 starts. Similar to the Brewers not using many bad position players, the Cardinals at least haven’t had to deploy any bad starters — and that keeps you in games.
Record: 40-35 (3rd in NL West)
Biggest strength: The big three (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill)
The Padres are kind of walking a tightrope right now, with several key performers either injured (Michael King, Yu Darvish) or not providing much value (Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts). Closer Robert Suarez has even had two catastrophic five-run blowups in save situations. Arraez is hitting .280, but it’s an empty .280 — he’s posting a career-low OBP with poor defensive metrics and he has been worth 0.1 WAR. Bogaerts is heading for a third straight season where his OPS+ will drop since he signed with the Padres, so he has been worth just 0.8 WAR (at least his defense has been solid).
While Gavin Sheets has stepped up in the DH role, the Padres’ lineup otherwise lacks depth: Ten different players have batted at least 10 times and have negative WAR. The Padres will no doubt look to address this at the trade deadline, but with Arraez and Bogaerts not major contributors, that puts all the pressure on Machado, Tatis and Merrill — and Merrill is currently on the concussion IL. Tatis might be the focal point here: He had a huge April with eight home runs and 1.011 OPS, slumped in May (.184 batting average, .626 OPS) and has been better in June. Let’s just say it would be beneficial for the April Tatis to show up the rest of the way.
Record: 39-37 (4th in NL Central)
Biggest strength: A young rotation finally emerging
The Reds have come up with several talented young pitchers in recent years, but have had issues keeping them healthy or seeing them productive in the same season. So far, however, the Reds’ rotation ranks third in Baseball-Reference WAR, behind only the Phillies and Royals, with Andrew Abbott (6-1, 1.84 ERA in 12 starts) perhaps on his way to a breakout season and Nick Lodolo on his way to a career high in games started and innings.
They’ll need to get Hunter Greene healthy, though. Greene tied Chris Sale for the NL lead with 6.2 bWAR last season and was on his way to a similar campaign (2.72 ERA in 11 starts) until he missed two weeks with a groin strain, returned to make three starts, and then landed back on the IL with another groin strain and a sore back that required an epidural. Veteran Wade Miley is filling in for Greene, and the options beyond him appear limited, so getting Greene back will be a must in the second half.
Record: 38-37 (4th in NL West)
Biggest strength: Offensive depth
After leading the majors in runs scored in 2024, the Diamondbacks are once again averaging more than five runs per game, one of just four teams above that mark. Leading the way: Corbin Carroll, having a bounce-back season more in line with his rookie numbers from 2023 except with even more power; Ketel Marte, with an OPS over .900; and slugging third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who has 24 home runs. Eight of the nine regulars have an OPS+ over 100, and the top two bench guys are solid-average as well.
The problem: They might need the offense to be even better. Corbin Burnes is out for the season, and Merrill Kelly has been the team’s only other consistent starter with Zac Gallen’s ERA on the wrong side of 5 and Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez getting hit hard. Outside of Shelby Miller and Jalen Beeks, the bullpen has been terrible, ranking last in the majors in win probability added. The Diamondbacks will have some tough decisions at the trade deadline and will be the most interesting team to watch, with Suarez, Kelly, Gallen, Miller, Beeks and Josh Naylor all heading to free agency.
American League
Record: 48-29 (1st in AL Central)
Biggest strength: Tarik Skubal
The Detroit offense has been much improved, ranking fifth in the majors in runs per game after finishing 19th last season. On defense, the versatility of multiple players like Javier Baez and Zach McKinstry helps manager AJ Hinch. Still, the clear strength here is reigning Cy Young Award winner Skubal — who might be on his way to becoming the first repeat winner in the AL since Pedro Martinez in 2000.
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Skubal began the season with two so-so starts and lost both those games, but since then he’s 8-0 with a 1.58 ERA and an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio of 107-to-8 — yes, that’s eight walks in his past 13 starts. The Tigers are 11-2 in those games, with the two losses a 10th-inning defeat and a 1-0 finish. When Skubal starts, the Tigers usually win.
Because of Skubal’s excellence, the Tigers rank third in the majors in rotation ERA. Still, that probably overrates their depth, as Hinch has been investing heavily in openers such as Brant Hurter and Tyler Holton of late, with only Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize remaining on regular rotation. With Jackson Jobe done for the year with Tommy John surgery, Skubal’s importance ramps up even higher.
Record: 44-32 (1st in AL West)
Biggest strength: Late-game bullpen
Houston’s offense has actually been pretty solid after a poor April — even without Yordan Alvarez — and the 1-2 duo of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez has been dominant, but the back end of the bullpen has been the key for the team’s surge into first place.
It begins with closer Josh Hader. After a homer-prone first season with the Astros in 2024 in which he allowed 12 home runs in 71 innings and lost eight games, Hader is 5-1 and a perfect 18-for-18 in save opportunities. Setting him up are Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, Steven Okert and Bennett Sousa, all with sub-3.00 ERAs. Shawn Dubin has a sub-2.00 ERA in more limited action. Overall, Houston ranks fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA.
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In high-leverage situations, the bullpen has been even better, with the lowest OPS in the majors, holding batters to a .146/.233/.236 line according to TruMedia data. That performance has helped the Astros to a 14-7 record in one-run games and a 5-0 mark in extra innings.
Is the pen this good? Hader and Abreu have strong track records. That’s less true for King, Okert and Sousa — but nothing in their numbers screams fluke, as they’ve combined for 109 strikeouts and just 18 walks. Veteran Okert, 33, has been the biggest surprise. Signed as a free agent for just $1.2 million, he entered 2025 with a career walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings; suddenly he’s Greg Maddux and has just six walks in 34⅔ innings (with 44 strikeouts). Other than Abreu, the other three setup guys are left-handed, but that hasn’t been an issue so far. This pen looks like the real deal.
Record: 43-32 (1st in AL East)
Biggest strength: Aaron Judge
For the first two months of 2025, the Yankees’ offense was clicking on all cylinders. Judge was leading the way with a historic start to his season, putting up numbers only Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth had matched over a full season. But he wasn’t the only one doing big damage. Paul Goldschmidt was hitting .347 through May 28, Trent Grisham cracked 12 home runs and had an OPS over 1.000 through May 12, and Ben Rice had an OPS over .900 as late as May 20.
The Yankees not only weren’t missing Juan Soto but were thriving without him. Unlike last season, when Soto was often the only major supporting cast member, Judge suddenly had multiple mashers around him.
Alas, what happens when Judge goes into a slump? During a recent six-game losing streak, Judge went 2-for-23 with 14 strikeouts and just a solo home run for his lone RBI, his average dropping from .392 to .366. The Yankees scored six runs and were shut out in three consecutive games, just the seventh time that has happened in franchise history.
It wasn’t just Judge. Goldschmidt, Grisham and Rice have all predictably regressed from their hot starts, leading to the concern: Can this lineup score enough runs if Judge isn’t superhuman all the time?
Record: 42-34 (2nd in AL East)
Biggest strength: Infield offense
The Rays are a balanced team without any single huge strength. They do lead the majors in stolen bases, but that’s primarily from two players: Jose Caballero and Chandler Simpson (and Simpson is currently in the minors). Their overall baserunning is a strength, third in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric, but that’s a small strength and hardly the reason they’ve surged after sitting five games under .500 on May 19. They’re a good defensive team, but they’ve had better defensive teams. The pitching? Good, but they’ve had better seasons in that area as well.
Let’s go with their overall offense from the four infield positions. The Rays rank third in the majors in OPS, third in home runs and third in runs from their infielders. First baseman Jonathan Aranda has been the best hitter in this group, having his breakout season at age 27 and in line for possible All-Star selection. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is doing his usual thing, with 15 home runs, and, most importantly, has remained healthy. Taylor Walls is the defensive wizard at shortstop, while Caballero splits time there in his utility role.
Then there’s Junior Caminero. Remember him? Last year’s hyped prospect doesn’t turn 22 until July and entered the season with just 213 plate appearances, but it feels as if everyone forgot about him heading into 2025 after he didn’t immediately tear up the majors as a rookie. He remains a flawed offensive player with an OBP just north of .300 and is on pace to break Jim Rice’s single-season record for grounding into double plays, but the power has arrived with 17 home runs — and he’s been red-hot of late, hitting .317/.389/.683 since May 23 with nine home runs and 28 RBIs in 26 games. That included a 4-for-5 game Wednesday as the Rays rallied from an 8-0 deficit to beat the Orioles 12-8. That sounds like the Rays team that made the playoffs five straight years from 2019 to 2023: scrappy, underrated and capable of beating you in different ways.
Record: 40-35 (3rd in AL East)
Biggest strength: Lowest strikeout rate in majors
We’re digging here to find somewhere the Jays excel. They are a very good defensive team with either Daulton Varsho or Myles Straw in center (Varsho is on the injured list at the moment), Andres Gimenez at second, and Ernie Clement at third. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is posting the best defensive metrics of his career. The pitching certainly hasn’t been a strength. They’ve been outhomered 101 to 77, so power hasn’t been their game. Indeed, the Jays are five games over .500 even though they’ve been outscored by 14 runs.
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That makes them a hard team to read. They’re 7-13 in blowout games — those decided by five or more runs — and that’s usually a surefire indicator of a bad team. Good teams don’t get blown out more often than they blow out their opponents. The Jays have thus done well in close games, and one related cause might be their ability to put the bat on the ball. They do have five walk-off wins (as opposed to two walk-off losses) and they’re 5-2 in extra-inning contests. In the bigger picture, maybe the contact rate will eventually turn into more offense if they can turn more of those balls into extra-base hits (the Jays are just 17th in the majors in isolated power). With just nine home runs, Guerrero is certainly the primary guy to watch in this area.
Record: 40-37 (4th in AL East)
Biggest strength: Garrett Crochet
What, you expected this to say team chemistry or something? The promise of youth? No, with Rafael Devers in San Francisco and Alex Bregman still on the injured list, Crochet is the answer here. Where would this rotation be without him? Let’s do some math:
Crochet: 7-4, 2.20 ERA, 10-for-16 in quality starts
Other starters: 15-17, 5.04 ERA, 22-for-60 in quality starts
Now, maybe those “others” will improve. Tanner Houck, Sean Newcomb and Richard Fitts are a combined 0-9, and Houck is now on the IL, Newcomb is on the Athletics and Fitts is in the minors. Brayan Bello has been better his past few starts, but Boston is still looking for consistency from Walker Buehler and Lucas Giolito. Even if the young position players start hitting better, the Red Sox are going to need more than just Crochet to stabilize the rotation.
Record: 38-36 (2nd in AL West)
Biggest strength: The Big Dumper
Here’s a stat that might surprise you: The Mariners are third in the majors in road OPS. Is this actually a good offensive team, only to have that good offense masked by playing half their games in a home park where offense goes to die? The Mariners are hitting .265/.345/.428 on the road, trailing only the Cubs and Yankees in OPS. At home, however, the numbers dip to .221/.300/.371 — 24th in the majors in OPS.
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The Big Dumper is Cal Raleigh, and with the starting rotation struggling with injuries, the bullpen a little thin behind standout closer Andres Munoz and Julio Rodriguez more “meh” than awesome, Raleigh has felt like a one-man show at times. He leads the majors with 29 home runs, leads the AL with 63 RBIs, and trails only Judge in OPS. He has played in 73 of Seattle’s 74 games and does his best damage when he starts behind the plate: Twenty-seven of his 29 home runs have come as a catcher. The record for home runs by a primary catcher is Salvador Perez’s 48 in 2021, but only 33 of those came as a catcher. The record for home runs hit while catching is Javy Lopez’s 42 in 2003. Raleigh’s 180 wRC+ currently sits second highest for a primary catcher, behind only Mike Piazza’s 183 in 1997.
All that undersells how Raleigh has propped up the Mariners. He’s been clutch as well, ranking in the top three in the majors in advanced metrics such as win probability added, situational wins added and championship WPA. Oh, and he’s hitting .257/.358/.614 at home. Judge might have MVP all but locked up already, but don’t tell that to the Big Dumper.
