Key points:
Bitcoin can reverse its latest slump to hit new all-time highs in the next four months, based on historical performance.
Research says that the outlook for Bitcoin between now and Christmas is “positive yet less volatile.”
The current dip may be “frontrunning” traditional September BTC price downside.
Bitcoin (BTC) faces average gains of 44% by Christmas as analysts play down the impact of a deeper BTC price correction.
Research from network economist Timothy Peterson, released on X this week, predicts “positive” performance for BTC/USD in Q4.
Bitcoin analysis plays with $160,000 target
Bitcoin traditionally sees its weakest gains in September, a month that BTC/USD has never finished more than 8% higher.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Despite that, Peterson, who regularly compares performance over multiple bull markets, remains optimistic.
“Exactly Four Months Until Christmas. How does Bitcoin fare during this time? Up 70% of the time. Average gain +44%,” he summarized.
That average upside would put Bitcoin at $160,000 by the last week of 2025, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
Peterson acknowledges that such expectations are more a guideline than a rule, with various nonconformant years over Bitcoin’s lifetime.
“However, I think some years do not have market/economic conditions comparable to 2025. I would exclude 2018, 2022, 2020, and 2017 as uncharacteristic years,” he concluded.
“This skews the outcome to favoring positive yet less volatile performance.”Bitcoin Q4 performance comparison. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Bitcoin “frontrunning” standard September blues
Elsewhere, others are unfazed by the current BTC price weakness, which has seen the lowest levels since early July return this week.
Related: Bitcoin Q2 dip similarities ‘uncanny’ as Coinbase Premium flips green
Popular trader Donny told X followers that BTC/USD is “frontrunning” traditional September downside.
“The scale is different — but the outcome is the same. Much higher,” he forecast while comparing price action to the 2017 bull market.
BTC/USDT bull market comparison. Source: Donny/X
Donny added that he saw BTC/USD copying gold after a period of lag — a classic relationship that has continued to play out in recent years.
BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.