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Calm

Crypto Market Prediction: Ripple's RLUSD's $200 Million Surge, Dogecoin's Big $0.24 Surprise, Ethereum's Calm Before $5,000 Storm
GameFi Guides

Crypto Market Prediction: Ripple’s RLUSD’s $200 Million Surge, Dogecoin’s Big $0.24 Surprise, Ethereum’s Calm Before $5,000 Storm

by admin September 11, 2025


The cryptocurrency market recovered quite well on Sept. 11, pushing new boundaries of the bearish market further and potentially making even more progress than anticipated. The surge in RLUSD volume could suggest more careful positioning, though. In our most recent market prediction, we broke down how bulls started coming back.

RLUSDT volume spike

Around $200 million have moved through Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, in the past day, marking a huge spike in trading volume. This spike is garnering attention throughout the cryptocurrency market, for a token that normally keeps a low-key, stable profile as a USD-pegged stablecoin.

There could be a number of causes for this kind of movement. In order to protect themselves from the volatility of more risky assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, institutional players may be moving their money into RLUSD. Stablecoins are probably being used as a safe haven by some traders due to recent volatility in altcoins and significant inflows into exchanges.

Source: Coinmarketcap

  • The volume might indicate early activity from payment corridors opening up behind the scenes, given Ripple’s continuous push for adoption in cross-border payments and settlements. The main lesson learned from the spike is that RLUSD remains steady, bolstering trust in its peg mechanism.

  • If the volume rise continues, it may signal the start of a larger uptake of Ripple’s stablecoin on payment and trading platforms. Investors should monitor whether the higher demand results in deeper liquidity across exchanges in the near future, as this would make the RLUSD a more dependable trading pair.

In general, speculation is less important than the overall positioning of the cryptocurrency market when it comes to RLUSD’s $200 million volume surge. In a way, it draws attention to the rising need for stability on an unpredictable market and suggests that Ripple’s stablecoin might become more significant in future global liquidity flows.

How good can DOGE be?

Dogecoin has performed surprisingly well, breaking through the $0.24 mark, which few had predicted given its slow performance in recent months. DOGE — which was once thought to be a meme-driven asset vulnerable to hype cycles — is now exhibiting resilience, defying general market uncertainty and proving its capacity to surprise both ardent supporters and doubters. 

The 100-day and 200-day EMAs of Dogecoin have been a solid base for buyers, and the cryptocurrency has continuously respected important support zones in the $0.21-$0.22 range in recent weeks. With bulls intervening at pivotal points, the recovery from these levels and the break above short-term moving averages suggest that momentum is improving. 

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Additionally, there has been a slight increase in trading volume, which could indicate that fresh market interest is emerging. The RSI, which is close to 59, indicates that bullish pressure is increasing without being overbought. This allows for more upside before reaching harsh circumstances.

If DOGE stays above $0.24, the next logical resistance is located between $0.27 and $0.28, where earlier rallies this summer were capped. A run toward $0.30, which would represent a major psychological milestone, might be possible if that zone is successfully broken. The fact that this rally coincides with a decline in the enthusiasm surrounding meme coins is what makes it so intriguing. 

It appears that technical strength and accumulation rather than speculative mania were the driving forces behind DOGE’s move. Dogecoin may start to establish a reputation as a reliable mid-cap cryptocurrency with steady investor support if this trend keeps up. In summary, Dogecoin has resurfaced as a contender in the current market cycle after its unexpected breakout above $0.24 has dispelled bearish expectations.

Ethereum too quiet

With price action settling in the $4,300 range and volatility at all-time lows, Ethereum is exhibiting an unusual calm. The second-largest cryptocurrency believes that this quiet time is misleading and could be a risky prelude to a storm.

With tight candles and little volume, ETH has been trading sideways on the charts for more than a week. The market seems to be losing liquidity, which suggests that traders are holding off until something clear happens. In the past, these periods of inaction frequently came before violent outbursts.

Ethereum is holding at high levels without either buyers or sellers controlling the market, which is more concerning than just the lack of movement. This implies that it might release a surge strong enough to destroy everything in its path when momentum eventually returns.

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The thesis is supported by technical indicators. There is still plenty of opportunity for growth as the RSI is neutral but balanced at 51. Ethereum, meanwhile, is still trading above its 50-day EMA, indicating that the bullish structure is still in place even in the absence of any immediate action.

Failure to hold current levels could result in a retest of $4,100 or even $3,800, while a clean breakout above $4,500 could pave the way to the eagerly anticipated $5,000 mark. Because there is less liquidity, there is a greater chance that a sudden surge in buying pressure will lead to a series of short liquidations, which would send ETH skyrocketing.

On the other hand, if bears take advantage of the situation, the same lack of liquidity may accelerate a sharp decline. Although Ethereum’s silence is unsettling, it also prepares the market for the next pivotal action.

The storm has the potential to propel ETH to new heights with $5,000 as the main target if bulls make a strong comeback. The calm should be interpreted as a warning rather than a sign of safety until that time.

The general state of the market is cautiously positive. With the comeback of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other grands, smaller assets are gaining more traction and might show us long-awaited recoveries. Unfortunately, if stablecoin volumes keep on growing, it would be a sign of a bearish shift.



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September 11, 2025 0 comments
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(Polymarket)
NFT Gaming

Bitcoin’s Calm Masks Market Tension Ahead of Fed and CPI

by admin September 10, 2025



Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

BTC is pinned near $111,000 with volatility compressed to multi-month lows, the kind of calm that tends to precede decisive moves. Traders know what could break the lull: September’s U.S. inflation data and the Fed’s rate decision a week later.

Prediction markets are leaning heavily toward easing. Polymarket bettors are assigning an 82% chance of a 25-basis-point cut on Sept. 17, leaving only slim odds for a deeper move or no change. Beyond that, October expectations are fractured, with nearly even probabilities for another cut or a pause. That divergence explains why volatility, though absent now, is unlikely to stay that way.

(Polymarket)

“Markets often look calm just before they move. Bitcoin is trading in one of its tightest ranges in months, and volatility across crypto has compressed to multi-month lows,” said Gracie Lin, OKX Singapore CEO. “With U.S. inflation data like Core CPI out on Sept. 11 and the Fed’s much-anticipated rate decision just ahead, this quiet period is setting the stage for the next decisive move. Whether the catalyst is an upside inflation surprise or a dovish signal from the Fed, what’s clear is that the absence of volatility is rarely permanent in digital assets; history shows the market will find its next direction soon enough.”

If a cut pulls money-market returns lower, the opportunity cost of sitting in cash rises, which is the pivot market maker Enflux says could send flows toward crypto.

“The real debate now is not if cuts come, but whether liquidity deployment shifts into BTC, ETH, and even riskier assets,” the firm told CoinDesk.

In other words, the Fed’s cut may grab headlines, but the real trade is whether sidelined cash rotates into digital assets — a shift that could fuel the return of volatility.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin has dipped slightly intraday, trading between approximately $110,812 and $113,237, reflecting short-term volatility amid shifting investor sentiment and broader crypto market dynamics.

ETH: ETH is modestly up intraday, with a range between roughly $4,279 and $4,379, signaling steady demand and some renewed investor interest. Range, however, is limited with modest ETF flows and traders awaiting the Fed’s next move.

Gold: Gold is rallying to record highs, fueled by mounting expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and renewed safe-haven demand.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks opened mostly higher Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.2%, as investors awaited China’s August inflation data showing an expected 0.2% CPI drop and a smaller 2.9% PPI decline.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks closed at record highs Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.27% to 6,512.61, as investors looked past a record payroll revision that cut 911,000 jobs from prior figures.

Elsewhere in Crypto

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  • California Man Sentenced in $36.9M Crypto Scam Tied to Infamous Huione Group (CoinDesk)
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September 10, 2025 0 comments
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Calm Ahead of Fed Rate Cut, Storm Later
GameFi Guides

Calm Ahead of Fed Rate Cut, Storm Later

by admin September 9, 2025



Risk assets may face stormier conditions if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, as expected, on Sept. 17. That’s the message from futures tied to the VIX index, a measure of expectations of volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days.

The index, also called Wall Street’s fear gauge, is calculated in real time from prices of options on the S&P 500, and reflects how much investors expect the market to swing, with higher values indicating greater levels of uncertainty.

The spread between the October VIX futures contract (the next-month contract) and the September contract (the front-month contract), has widened to 2.2%, an extreme level by historical standards, according to data source TradingView. The September contract expires the same day as the Fed meeting.

Meanwhile, the front-month contract trades only at a slight premium to the cash index.

“Cash is fair compared to Sept. … but Sept. is extremely low compared to October futures,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at crypto derivatives data analytics firm Amberdata, wrote in the weekly newsletter.

In other words, traders are discounting risk ahead of the Fed meeting, wagering that the rate-cut expectation will keep markets steady as they approach the decision.

The U.S. central bank is expected to lower its target rate by at least 25 basis points when it meets next week, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Some market participants are even positioned for a 50 bps reduction.

The October futures, however, tell a different story, suggesting that investors are anticipating increased turbulence once the Fed’s decision is out of the way and rate cuts are priced in.

“The VIX futures for September have priced away risk while October could be ugly … A theme to keep in mind for risk assets in my opinion,” Magadini wrote.

October VIX futures trade at a significant premium to September futures. (TradingView)

Historically, the VIX has exhibited a strong negative correlation with stock prices, typically rising during bear markets and periods of market stress, while declining when stock prices advance. It means that the potential volatility boom after the Fed decision could be marked by a downswing in equities.

Bitcoin BTC$111,883.20 is known to closely track the mood on Wall Street, which means that a potential volatility explosion in stocks could quickly spill over into the cryptocurrency market. And like stocks, the turbulent period could be marked by bearish price action.

Since November last year, the correlation between bitcoin’s spot price and its 30-day implied volatility indices has turned negative. Additionally, Bitcoin’s volatility indices — BVIV and DVOL — have recently reached record high correlation levels with the VIX, highlighting bitcoin’s growing alignment with broader market volatility trends.



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September 9, 2025 0 comments
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‘Short Strangle’ Preferred as Market Signals Near-Term Calm, Analyst Says
NFT Gaming

‘Short Strangle’ Preferred as Market Signals Near-Term Calm, Analyst Says

by admin August 29, 2025



Bitcoin BTC$111,292.90 defied expectations for significant volatility in August, trading within a range. As market dynamics indicate a continued low-volatility regime in the near term, 10x Research highlights the “short strangle” as an ideal play.

“Given the current dynamics in the bitcoin options market, a short strangle looks well-suited for the next month. With bitcoin trading around $113,000 and an expected range between $95,000 and $125,000, selling an out-of-the-money [September expiry] put near $95,000 alongside an out-of-the-money [September expiry] call near $125,000 provides an opportunity to capture premium,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a report to clients Thursday.

Short strangle involves a simultaneous writing (selling) of out-of-the-money higher strike calls and OTM lower strike puts with the same expiry, positioned equidistant from the underlying asset’s spot price.

The strategy is similar to selling insurance against both bullish and bearish moves in exchange for a premium, which represents the maximum profit achievable if the spot price remains between the two strike prices – $95,000 and $125,000 in this case.

Selling options (or strangles) is a common strategy when implied volatility (IV) exceeds realized volatility, as this allows traders to capture richer premiums, and the market is expected to remain relatively stable.

“The strategy works because the implied volatility curve is trading above realized levels, signaling options are overpriced, and the market is unlikely to deliver large moves outside your defined range in the short run,” Thielen noted. “The options implied volatility term structure indicates near-term calm.”

The implied volatility (IV) term structure is a graphical representation showing how volatility is expected to evolve across different future time horizons. It is typically upward sloping, reflecting increasing uncertainty and risk as the time to expiration lengthens.

Risk-reward profile

BTC needs to continue trading between $95,000 and $125,000 for the suggested strategy to generate profits. The rangebound trading will reduce the demand for OTM calls and puts, thereby draining premium from these options and generating a profit for strangle sellers.

Thielen’s previous recommendation from early August was also a short strangle, involving a $105,000 put and a $130,000 call. This strategy generated a yield of 3.5%.

Note, however, that short strangles carry significant risks, particularly in the event of a sudden spike in volatility, which can lead to substantial losses. Therefore, traders must continuously monitor the position and relevant market variables to manage risk effectively.

Read more: Bitcoin Headed to $190K on Institutional Wave, Research Firm Says



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August 29, 2025 0 comments
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